Long-term fire frequency variability in the eastern Canadian boreal forest: the influences of climate vs. local factors

The influence of climatic and local nonclimatic factors on the fire regime of the eastern Canadian boreal forest over the last 8000 years is investigated by examining charred particles preserved in four lacustrine deposits. Herein, we compare the distribution of fire-free intervals (FFIs) and the synchronicity of fire events among sites, using Ripley's K -function to determine the extent of the role of local-scale vs. large-scale processes with respect to fire control. Between 8000 and 5800 cal. bp (calibrated years before present) the climatic and ecological conditions were less conducive to fire events than after this date. After 5800 cal. bp , the number of fires per 1000 years (fire frequency) progressively increased, reaching a maximum ca. 3400 cal. bp . There was a sharp decrease in fire frequency during the last 800 years. Between 8000 and 4000 cal. bp , comparable FFIs and synchronous fire episodes were determined for the study sites. During this period, the fire frequency was predominantly controlled by climate. After 4000 cal. bp , two sites displayed independent fire histories (different FFI distributions or asynchronous fire events), underlining the important influence of local factors, including short-term fuel wetness, characteristics of the watershed and landscape connectivity, in determining fire occurrence. We conclude that climatic changes occurred during the last 4000 years that induced a rise in the water table; this may explain the high spatial heterogeneity in fire history. Current and projected global climatic changes may cause similar spatial variability in fire frequency.     

Long-term forest fire ecology and dynamics in southern Switzerland

1 Pollen and charcoal analysis at two lakes in southern Switzerland revealed that fire has had a prominent role in changing the woodland composition of this area for more than 7000 years.
2 The sediment of Lago di Origlio for the period between 5100 and 3100  bc cal. was sampled continuously with a time interval of about 10 years. Peaks of charcoal particles were significantly correlated with repeated declines in pollen of Abies , Hedera , Tilia , Ulmus , Fraxinus excelsior t., Fagus and Vitis and with increases in Alnus glutinosa t., shrubs (e.g. Corylus , Salix and Sambucus nigra t.) and several herbaceous species. The final disappearance of the lowland Abies alba stands at around 3150  bc cal. may be an example of a fire-caused local extinction of a fire-intolerant species.
3 Forest fires tended to diminish pollen diversity. The charcoal peaks were preceded by pollen types indicating human activity. Charcoal minima occurred during periods of cold humid climate, when fire susceptibility would be reduced.
4 An increase of forest fires at about 2100  bc cal. severely reduced the remaining fire-sensitive plants: the mixed-oak forest was replaced by a fire-tolerant alder–oak forest. The very strong increase of charcoal influx, and the marked presence of anthropogenic indicators, point to principally anthropogenic causes.
5 We suggest that without anthropogenic disturbances Abies alba would still form lowland forests together with various deciduous broadleaved tree taxa.     

Local and ecoregion effects on fish assemblage structure in tributaries of the Rio Paraíba do Sul, Brazil

1.  We examined the effects of physical and chemical habitat variables and ecoregions on species occurrence and fish assemblage structure in streams of the Paraíba do Sul basin, in southeast Brazil.
2.  Fish and environmental data were collected from 42 sites on 26 first to fourth order streams (1 : 50 000 map scale) in three ecoregions. The sites occurred in one valley and two plateau ecoregions at altitudes of 40–1080 m and distances of 0.1–188 km from the main channel of the Rio Paraíba do Sul. Physical habitat (substratum, riparian cover, habitat types) and water quality (dissolved oxygen, pH, temperature and conductivity) variables were measured at each sampling site.
3.  A total of 2684 individuals in 16 families and 59 species were recorded.
4.  Ecoregion was a better predictor of the fish assemblage than the other environmental variables, according to the differences between the mean within-class and mean between-class similarities in assemblage data.
5.  Differing landscape characteristics were associated with differing local variables and thereby with differing fish assemblage structures. Riffles, shrub, grass, dissolved oxygen, conductivity and temperature were closely related to fish assemblage structure.
6.  Fish assemblages in sites far from the main river and at higher altitudes also differed from those near the Paraíba do Sul main channel, presumably as a result of differences in connectivity, covarying environmental factors and anthropogenic influence.
7.  These results reinforce the importance of understanding how stream communities are influenced by processes and patterns operating at local and regional scales, which will aid water resource managers to target those factors in their management and rehabilitation efforts.     

Population genetics suggests effectiveness of habitat connectivity measures for the European tree frog in Switzerland

1.  Governmental authorities in many countries financially support the implementation of habitat connectivity measures to enhance the exchange of individuals among fragmented populations. The evaluation of the effectiveness of such measures is crucial for future management directions and can be accomplished by using genetic methods.
2.  We retraced the population history of the European tree frog in two Swiss river valleys (Reuss and Thur), performed comprehensive population sampling to infer the genetic structure at 11 microsatellite markers, and used first-generation migrant assignment tests to evaluate the contemporary exchange of individuals.
3.  Compared with the Thur valley, the Reuss valley has lost almost double the number of breeding sites and exhibited a more pronounced genetic grouping. However, similar numbers of contemporary migrants were detected in both valleys. In the Reuss valley, 81% of the migration events occurred within the identified genetic groups, whereas in the Thur valley migration patterns were diffuse.
4.  Our results show that the connectivity measures implemented in the Reuss valley facilitated effective tree frog migration among breeding sites within distances up to 4 km. Nevertheless, the Reuss valley exhibited high genetic differentiation, which reflected the impact of barriers to tree frog movement such as the River Reuss. By contrast in the Thur valley, a larger number of breeding sites have been preserved and high admixture indicated exchange of individuals at distances up to 16 km.
5.   Synthesis and applications . We show that genetic methods can substantiate the effectiveness of connectivity measures taken in conservation management at the landscape scale. We urge responsible authorities from both river valleys to continue implementing connectivity measures and to create a dense network of breeding sites, as spatial gaps of 8 km are rarely traversed by tree frogs.     

A regional study of Holocene climate change and human occupation in Peruvian Amazonia

Aim  To investigate the influence of Holocene climatic and human-induced changes on a region of high biodiversity in southern Peruvian Amazonia.
Location  Four palaeoecological records from separate lakes within a lake district close to the modern city of Puerto Maldonado, Peru.
Results  The lakes provide a palaeoecological record spanning the last 8200 years. A mid-Holocene dry event is documented in all of the records that extend back > 6000 years. The dry event appears to have lasted from c . 7200 yr bp until c . 3300 yr bp . The onset of wetter conditions coincides with the formation of the youngest of the four lakes. The earliest occupation of these sites is inferred from the presence of charcoal at 7200 yr bp , and the first crop pollen is found at 3630 yr bp . Lakes that were regularly occupied were colonized soon after they formed. A reduction in charcoal concentration and the absence of crop pollen after c . 500  bp in all lakes is consistent with site abandonment following conquest.
Main conclusions  The mid-Holocene dry event is suggested to be part of a time-transgressive drying that tracked from north to south in both the Andes and the Amazon lowlands. The last millennium may represent the period of highest sustained lake levels within the Holocene. The proximity of the four lakes allows a landscape-scale analysis of the spatial extent of human disturbance centred on a known site of human occupation and reveals the highly localized nature of pre-Columbian anthropogenic disturbance in Amazonian landscapes. Inferences regarding widespread pre-Columbian landscape modification by indigenous peoples must take into account key site attributes, such as seasonality and proximity to rivers.     

Spatial and temporal variation in species composition of dung beetle assemblages in southern Ireland

Abstract. 1. This study attempts to identify the main community characteristics that contribute to variability in dung beetle assemblage composition and structure across a range of spatial and temporal scales.
2. Dung beetle assemblages ( Aphodius , Sphaeridium, and Geotrupes species) were monitored by dung-baited pitfall trapping at 10-day intervals during the seasonally active period at eleven sites in southern Ireland. Three of the sites were monitored over at least 2 years between 1991 and 1996.
3. Although the species composition of the above taxonomic groups was comparable among sites and years, relative abundances of component species varied considerably. Detrended correspondence analysis ordinations indicated a similar level of variability in dung beetle assemblage structure among years, and among sites ≈1–180 km apart.
4. Processes that may contribute to spatio-temporal variability in dung beetle assemblages are discussed, and strategies for future research are suggested.     

1200 years of fire and vegetation history in the Willamette Valley, Oregon and Washington, reconstructed using high-resolution macroscopic charcoal and pollen analysis

High-resolution macroscopic charcoal and pollen analyses were used to reconstruct the fire and vegetation history of the Willamette Valley for the last 1200 years. Presented in this paper are three new paleoecological reconstructions from Lake Oswego, Porter Lake, and Warner Lake, Oregon, and portions of previous reconstructions from Battle Ground Lake, Washington, and Beaver Lake, Oregon. The reconstructions show that prior to Euro-American settlement vegetation and fire regimes were influenced by a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors. Battle Ground Lake shows a stronger influence from climate, while Lake Oswego, Beaver Lake, Porter Lake, and Warner Lake were more controlled by human activity. However, human-set fires were also modulated by regional climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. Fire reconstructions from Battle Ground Lake, Lake Oswego, Beaver Lake, and Porter Lake imply that fires were infrequent in the Willamette Valley 200-300 years prior to Euro-American settlement. The decline of Native American populations due to introduced disease may have led to this reduction in fire activity. The prehistoric record from Warner Lake, however, indicates that fires in the foothills of the Cascade Range were more frequent than on the valley floor, at least until ca. AD 1800. The historic portions of the reconstructions indicate that Euro-American land clearance for agriculture and logging produced the most dramatic shifts in vegetation and fire regimes. All five records indicate that few fires in the Willamette Valley have occurred since ca. AD 1930, and fires today are predominantly grass fires.     

Changes in distribution of an archaic moth, Micropterix calthella, in St Petersburg, Russia, between 1989 and 2005

Aim  This work aimed to assess changes in the number of suitable habitats and habitat occupancy by Micropterix calthella (L.) moths (Lepidoptera, Micropterigidae) in the city of St Petersburg between 1989 and 2005.
Location  The city of St Petersburg, Russia.
Methods  The study compares results of the survey conducted on 9–12 June 2005 with data collected in 1989 and is based on the assessment of the quality and occupancy of 103 habitats that were found potentially suitable for M. calthella in 1989. If habitats contained wet microsites with undisturbed litter and dense field layer vegetation with a high abundance of flowering Ranunculus sp., they were considered potentially suitable for M. calthella ; in these habitats, moths were searched for on flowers of Ranunculus – visually and/or by extensive sweep-netting.
Results  Both the number of habitats suitable for M. calthella and the number of habitats occupied by this species decreased since 1986 from 103 to 72 and from 58 to 34, respectively. The disappearance of habitats was primarily due to the building of residential blocks within the city (16 sites) and railway renovation (10 sites), while changes in habitat management, primarily in parks and recreation zones (five sites), were less important. The average distance from the city centre to the nearest population of M. calthella increased from 8.7 ± 1.5 to 12.9 ± 3.0 km (mean ± SE).
Main conclusion  The data for 2005 fit the prediction that M. calthella moths, which are unable to re-colonize potentially suitable habitats due to their low migratory ability, will disappear from the city. At the present rate of extinction, this process may take some 20–30 years to complete (or nearly complete).     

Influences of infrequent fire, elevation and pre-fire vegetation on the persistence of quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) in the Flat Tops area, Colorado, USA

Aim  The recent concern that quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.) has been declining in parts of western North America due to fire suppression is largely based on trends during the latter part of the 20th century. The aim of the current study was to compare the extent of aspen in the modern landscape with its extent in the late 19th century prior to fire suppression, and to assess the effects of elevation, late-19th century fires, and pre-fire forest composition on the successional status of aspen.
Location  North-west Colorado, USA.
Methods  We used a georeferenced 1898 map and modern maps to examine trends in aspen dominance since the late 19th century in a 348,586 ha area of White River and Routt National Forests in north-western Colorado. Stand age and structure were sampled in 30 stands.
Results  We found no evidence of overall aspen decline over this period. In fact, aspen distribution has increased in parts of the study area following severe fires in the late 19th century in forests that were previously dominated by conifers. Aspen persistence and increase was especially pronounced at elevations below 3000 m a.s.l. Most 120-year-old post-fire stands that are presently being successionally replaced by conifers were dominated by conifers prior to the last severe fire.
Main conclusions  Human perceptions of ecosystems are often on time scales that are shorter than the cycles of natural variation within those ecosystems. This disparity may lead to an underestimation of the range of natural variability of ecosystem patterns and processes. The appropriate temporal scale of inquiry is necessary for the correct understanding of natural variation in ecosystems.     

Conservation implications of genetic variation between spatially and temporally distinct colonies of the endangered damselfly Coenagrion mercuriale

Abstract.  1. Good conservation management is underpinned by a thorough understanding of species' historical and contemporary dispersal capabilities along with the possible adaptive or neutral processes behind any spatio-temporal genetic structuring. These issues are investigated with respect to the rare damselfly Coenagrion mercuriale (Charpentier) – the only odonate species currently listed in the U.K.'s Biodiversity Action Plan – in east Devon where its distribution has become fragmented.
2. The two east Devon C. mercuriale populations, only 3.5 km apart, have accumulated strong differences in frequencies of alleles at 14 microsatellite loci as a consequence of poor adult dispersal and drift. There is no contemporary migration between sites.
3. A genetic signature of population decline at both sites corresponds with known demographic reductions. Coenagrion mercuriale in east Devon are now significantly genetically less diverse than those from a population stronghold in the Itchen Valley.
4. Colonies would benefit from improved connectivity between areas and possibly by a transfer of individuals from other ecologically similar areas.
5. Because C. mercuriale has a semivoltine life cycle throughout the U.K., the possibility that alternate-year cohorts are reproductively isolated is explored. Genetic differentiation among cohorts is an order of magnitude less than between sites, suggesting that some larvae delay their development into adults for a year and recruit to a different cohort.
6. To our knowledge, this is the first study to document migration and gene flow between alternate-year cohorts in a species of odonate. From a conservation standpoint, the cohorts do not require separate management.     

Origin of the lichen–spruce woodland in the closed-crown forest zone of eastern Canada

Aim We investigate the timing and factors responsible for the transformation of closed‐crown forests into lichen–spruce woodlands. Location The study area extends between 70° and 72° W in the closed‐crown forest zone from its southern limit near 47°30′ N to its northern limit at the contact with the lichen–spruce woodland zone around 52°10′ N. A total of 24 lichen–spruce woodlands were selected. Methods Radiocarbon dating of charcoals at mineral soil contact and within the organic horizons allowed the principal factors causing the degradation of the closed‐crown forest to be identified, i.e. light fires, successive fires and the occurrence of a spruce budworm epidemic followed by a fire. Results Charcoals dated in the organic horizon were less than 200 years old, suggesting a recent transformation of the closed‐crown forest following surface fires. Before their transformation into lichen–spruce woodlands, stands were occupied by old, dense forests that originated from fires dating back to 1000 yr bp . The radiocarbon dating of charcoals in the organic horizon indicated that several stands burned twice in less than 50 years, while others burned shortly after a spruce budworm epidemic. Light fires are frequent within the lichen–spruce woodlands according to multiple charcoal layers found within the organic matter horizon. Main conclusions While closed‐crown forests are predicted to expand under climate warming, compound disturbances diminish the natural regeneration of the closed‐crown forests in the south and favour the expansion of lichen–spruce woodlands. As black spruce germinates on mineral soils, surface fires accentuate the expansion of the lichen–spruce woodlands southward. Under global warming, warmer springs will lead to earlier low‐intensity fires that do not remove as much organic matter, and hence prevent conditions suitable for black spruce regeneration. Also, spruce budworm reduces seed production for a certain time. The occurrence of fire during this period is critical for regeneration of black spruce.     

Continental-scale tree population response to rapid climate change, competition and disturbance

Aim  Using a new approach to analyse fossil pollen data, we investigate temporal and spatial patterns in Populus ( poplar, cottonwood, aspen) from the Late Glacial to the present at regional to continental scales.
Location  North America.
Methods  We extracted data on the timing and magnitude of the maximum value of Populus pollen from each pollen diagram in the North American Pollen Database (NAPD). The information was plotted in histograms of 150-year bins to identify times when Populus was abundant on the landscape. We also mapped the maximum values to identify spatial patterns and their causes.
Results  Our analyses show that there have been several periods since the Late Glacial when Populus was abundant on the landscape: (1) from 12.35 to 12.65 kyr  bp , in eastern North America, largely in response to the opening of the forest following the onset of the Younger Dryas; (2) from 10.85 to 11.75 kyr  bp , following the termination of the Younger Dryas; and (3) during the last 150 years, as land was cleared for agricultural use, especially in the midwestern United States.
Main conclusion  Since the Late Glacial, changes in the abundance of Populus were caused more by the effects of abrupt climate change on its major competitors, rather than the direct effects of climate on Populus itself.     

Regional and local controls on postglacial vegetation and fire in the Siskiyou Mountains, northern California, USA

The Siskiyou Mountains of northwestern California and southwestern Oregon are a floristic hotspot, and the high diversity of conifers there likely results from a combination of geological, ecological, climatological and historical factors. To evaluate how past climate variability has influenced the composition, structure and fire regime of the Siskiyou forests, pollen, charcoal, and lithological evidence was examined from two lakes along a moisture gradient to reconstruct the vegetation, fire and climate history. The late-glacial period was characterized by subalpine parkland and infrequent fire at both sites. During the late-glacial/Early Holocene transition period, subalpine parkland was replaced by a closed forest of Pinus, Cupressaceae, Abies and Pseudotsuga and more frequent fires a 1000 years earlier at the wetter site, and it is likely that reduced Pacific Ocean upwelling created warmer drier conditions at the coast. In the Early Holocene, Pinus, Cupressaceae were less abundant and fire less frequent at the coastal site during a period of increased coastal upwelling and fog production. In the Late Holocene, Abies, Pseudotsuga, Pinus, and Quercus vaccinifolia increased in the forest at both sites suggesting a widespread response to cooling. Fewer fires at the wetter site may account for the abundance of Picea breweriana within the last 1000 years. The comparison of the two records implies that large-scale controls in climate during the last 14,000 cal yr BP have resulted in major changes in vegetation and fire regime. Asynchrony in the ecosystem response of wetter and drier sites arises from small-scale spatial variations in effective moisture and temperature resulting from topographically-influenced microclimates and coastal-to-inland climate gradients.     

BOTANICAL BRIEFING Fire, Forest Regeneration and Links with Early Human Habitation: Evidence from New Zealand

New Zealand forests burn less frequently than tussock grasslands,heath or shrublands. Species composition, past disturbance andstand condition determine inflammability and fuel load, andconsequent fire intensity and spatial extent. Before peoplearrived, fires were ignited by lightning during drought yearson the eastern sides of both islands. Volcanism occurring every300–600 years was associated with fires in the centralNorth Island. A review of radiocarbon-dated charcoal from theeastern South Island, and of evidence for fire in pollen profilesfrom the North Island, provide the basis for an assessment offire frequency. Forest fires have occurred on both New Zealand'sislands throughout the Holocene at least every few centuries,until the last millennium when frequency increased. The ‘returntime’ of fire at any one place in the forested landscapewas probably one or two millennia. Burned areas usually succeededto forest again before the next inflagration. Consequently fireadaptation is infrequent in the New Zealand flora, and Polynesianforest clearance was rapid and largely permanent. There is anindication of an increase in fire frequency in the late Holocene,and a clear signal associated with people approx. 700 yearsBP. Separating the earliest anthropogenic fires from the backgroundlevel of natural burning will be difficult without additionalevidence.Copyright 1998 Annals of Botany Comapny Fire history, New Zealand, palynology, Maori, climate, volcanism.     

运城盆地洪积扇全新世时期的野火与环境变化的初步探讨

通过对运城盆地典型黄土-古土壤剖面磁化率和炭屑含量的分析,研究了洪积扇全新世野火活动的规律及其与环境变化的关系。研究结果表明,在全新世早期(11500~8500 a B.P.), 气候向温湿过渡,但仍较干旱,炭屑含量较高,野火活动比较频繁,说明气候干旱是野火发生的重要原因。而全新世中期(8500~3100 a B.P.),除夏商文化时期外,炭屑含量在整个全新世时期居于最低,野火活动最为微弱,与此时期气候温暖湿润密切相关。但在夏商文化时期(3800~3500 a B.P.)炭屑浓度出现峰值,野火活动较为频繁,是人类生产和生活活动作用的结果。全新世晚期(3100~0 a B.P.)炭屑含量大幅度增加,野火活动最为频繁,一方面与气候向干旱化发展有关,另一方面与大范围的人类活动密切相关;在干旱的气候背景条件下, 人类活动加速了野火的发生频率和活动强度。     

Soil Charcoal in Old-Growth Rain Forests from Sea Level to the Continental Divide

Soil charcoal is an indicator of Holocene fires as well as a palaeoecological signature of pre-Colombian land use in Neotropical rain forests. To document rain forest fire history, we examined soil charcoal patterns in continuous old-growth forests along an elevational transect from sea level to the continental divide on the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica. At 10 elevations we sampled 1-ha plots, using 16 cores/ha to collect 1.5-m deep soil samples. We found charcoal in soils at every elevation, with total dry mass ranging from 3.18 g/m² at 2000-m elevation to as much as 102.7 g/m² at 300 m. Soil charcoal is most abundant at the wettest lowland sites (60–500 m) and less at montane elevations (> 1000 m) where there is less rainfall. Between 30- and 90-cm soil depth, soil charcoal is present consistently and every 1-ha plot has charcoal evidence for multiple fire events. Radiocarbon dates range from 23,240 YBP at 1750-m elevation to 140 YBP at 2600 m. Interestingly, none of the charcoal samples from 2600 m are older than 170 yr, which suggests that forests near the continental divide are relatively young replacement stands that have re-established since the most recent localized volcanic eruption on Volcán Barva. We propose that these old-growth forests have been disturbed infrequently but multiple times as a consequence of anthropogenic and natural fires.     

Effects of prescribed fire on an ant community in Florida pine savanna

Abstract.  1. The effects of prescribed fire on ant community structure were examined in a regenerating longleaf pine savanna in Florida, U.S.A. The presence of ants on 20, 10 × 10 m plots was determined by baiting every 1–3 months from 18 months before a fire until 6 months afterwards.
2. Expected species richness (based on rarefaction) and species density 6 months post-fire were significantly lower than for the same month (September) 6 months before the fire.
3. Cluster analysis revealed that the effects of fire were far less important predictors of ant community structure than seasonality and unexplained inter-annual variation. Thus, overall, the impacts of fire were relatively minor and short term at the community level.
4. Different functional groups of ants (as defined by Andersen, 1997) responded to fire in strikingly different ways. Generalised Myrmicinae (e.g. Pheidole spp., Monomorium viride ) were affected more severely by fire than were the other functional groups. In contrast, the dominant Dolichoderinae ( Forelius pruinosus ) exhibited a large increase after the fire and seemed to be responsible for the decline in abundance of several species.
5. A strong negative correlation between F. pruinosus and other groups of ants immediately after the fire suggested more intense competition among ants at that time. Six months post-fire, the abundance of F. pruinosus decreased markedly and the abundance of other species rebounded.
6. The rapid post-fire recovery of the ant community probably reflects adaptations of ants to a chronic fire regime.     

A sediment-based history of medium altitude forest in central Africa: a record from Kabata Swamp, Ndale volcanic field, Uganda

1 Sedimentary data from a 6-m long core from Kabata Swamp, an in-filled crater in the Ndale volcanic field of western Uganda, provided evidence for a number of cycles of disturbance and recovery of medium altitude forest.
2 The date of formation of the crater was earlier than an Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon date of 11 460 ± 90  bp (11 699–11 209 bc cal.) and thus appears to predate volcanism farther north in the Fort Portal area.
3 A form of medium altitude forest was already present in western Uganda by the later stages of the last ice age. A more diverse form of medium altitude forest was present from 11 460 ± 90  bp .
4 Some phases of disturbance of this forest during the Holocene could be correlated with established political–economic changes in the study area. One dated c. 2500  bp (768–542 bc cal.) could be associated with the entry of Bantu-speaking people. A second at 400 ± 60  bp ( ad  1419–1648 cal.) coincides with significant shifts in the focus of settlement from drier grassland to wetter, more forested parts.
5 Levels of biodiversity in forests in western Uganda remain relatively high, even after substantial modifications of vegetation cover over an extended period of time. Many central African forest taxa may therefore be able to cope with environmental change, including prolonged human impact.     

A long‐term record of Quercus decline,logging and fires in a southern Swedish Fagus‐Picea forest

Abstract. We reconstructed forest development and disturbance events (fire and logging) during the last 1000 yr with tree‐ring data, pollen and charcoal analysis from a semi‐natural Fagus sylvatica‐Picea abies forest (ca. 1 km²) in the hemiboreal zone. According to pollen analysis, Quercus robur together with Pinus sylvestris was abundant in the forest until the turn of the 18th/19th centuries when these species disappeared completely (Quercus) or nearly completely (Pinus) and were replaced by Fagus and Picea. The disappearance of Quercus was corroborated by the remarkable discovery of a single Quercus stump that had been cut in the 18th century and had become overgrown and preserved by a very old Picea. In total 11 fires were dated from 1555 to 1748 from fire scars in several Pinus stumps cut 100 ‐ 200 yr ago. Since the last fire in 1748, no Quercus or Pinus have regenerated in the core of the reserve apart from single pines in neighbouring managed forest (80 yr ago). During the period of documented fires Fagus was protected from fires in a refuge made up of large boulders. Picea colonized the region at the time when the fires ceased 250 yr ago. We hypothesize that most of the fires were probably of human origin because of their patchiness and high frequency compared to the natural background levels of lightning ignitions in the region. On a 300‐yr time scale, logging and fire suppression seem to strongly overshadow the effect of climate change on forest composition and dynamics.     

Spatial patterns and drivers of fire occurrence and its future trend under climate change in a boreal forest of Northeast China

Understanding the spatial patterns of fire occurrence and its response to climate change is vital to fire risk mitigation and vegetation management. Focusing on boreal forests in Northeast China, we used spatial point pattern analysis to model fire occurrence reported from 1965 to 2009. Our objectives were to quantitate the relative importance of biotic, abiotic, and human influences on patterns of fire occurrence and to map the spatial distribution of fire occurrence density (number of fires occurring over a given area and time period) under current and future climate conditions. Our results showed human‐caused fires were strongly related to human activities (e.g. landscape accessibility), including proximity to settlements and roads. In contrast, fuel moisture and vegetation type were the most important controlling factors on the spatial pattern of lightning fires. Both current and future projected spatial distributions of the overall (human‐ + lightning‐caused) fire occurrence density were strongly clustered along linear components of human infrastructure. Our results demonstrated that the predicted change in overall fire occurrence density is positively related to the degree of temperature and precipitation change, although the spatial pattern of change is expected to vary spatially according to proximity to human ignition sources, and in a manner inconsistent with predicted climate change. Compared to the current overall fire occurrence density (median value: 0.36 fires per 1000 km² per year), the overall fire occurrence density is projected to increase by 30% under the CGCM3 B1 scenario and by 230% under HadCM3 A2 scenario in 2081–2100, respectively. Our results suggest that climate change effects may not outweigh the effects of human influence on overall fire occurrence over the next century in this cultural landscape. Accurate forecasts of future fire‐climate relationships should account for anthropogenic influences on fire ignition density, such as roads and proximity to settlements.