Rapid expansion of lichen woodlands within the closed-crown boreal forest zone over the last 50 years caused by stand disturbances in eastern Canada

Aim Our two main goals are first to evaluate the resilience of the boreal forest according to latitude across the closed‐crown forest zone using the post‐disturbance distribution and cover of lichen woodlands and closed‐crown forests as a metric, and second to identify the disturbance factors responsible for the regeneration and degradation of the closed‐crown forest according to latitude since the 1950s. Location The study area extends between 70°00′ and 72°00′ W and throughout the closed‐crown forest zone, from its southern limit near 47°30′ N to its northern limit at the contact with the lichen woodland zone at around 52°40′ N. Methods Recent (1972–2002) and old (1954–1956) aerial photos were used to map the distribution of lichen woodlands across the closed‐crown forest zone. Forest disturbances such as fire, spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens)) outbreak, and logging were recorded on each set of aerial photos. Each lichen woodland and stand disturbance was validated by air‐borne surveys and digitized using GIS software. Results Over the last 50 years, the area occupied by lichen woodlands has increased according to latitude; that is, 9% of the area that was occupied by closed‐crown forests has shifted to lichen woodlands. Although logging activities have been concentrated in the same areas during the last 50 years, the area covered by logging has increased significantly. Outbreaks by the spruce budworm occurred predominantly in the southern (47°30′ N to 48°30′ N) and central (48°53′ N to 50°42′ N) parts of the study area, where balsam fir stands are extensive. In the northern part of the study area (51°–52°40′ N), extensive fires affected the distribution and cover of closed‐crown forests and lichen woodlands. Main conclusions Over the last 50 years, the area occupied by closed‐crown forests has decreased dramatically, and the ecological conditions that allow closed‐crown forests to establish and develop are currently less prevalent. Fire is by far the main disturbance, reducing the ability of natural closed‐crown forests to self‐regenerate whatever the latitude. Given the current biogeographical shift from dense to open forests, the northern part of the closed‐crown forest zone is in a process of dramatic change towards the dominance of northern woodlands.     

Stability in the patterns of long‐term development and growth of the Canadian spruce–moss forest

Aim The spruce–moss forest is the main forest ecosystem of the North American boreal forest. We used stand structure and fire data to examine the long‐term development and growth of the spruce–moss ecosystem. We evaluate the stability of the forest with time and the conditions needed for the continuing regeneration, growth and re‐establishment of black spruce (Picea mariana) trees. Location The study area occurs in Québec, Canada, and extends from 70°00′ to 72°00′ W and 47°30′ to 56°00′ N. Methods A spatial inventory of spruce–moss forest stands was performed along 34 transects. Nineteen spruce–moss forests were selected. A 500 m² quadrat at each site was used for radiocarbon and tree‐ring dating of time since last fire (TSLF). Size structure and tree regeneration in each stand were described based on diameter distribution of the dominant and co‐dominant tree species [black spruce and balsam fir (Abies balsamea)]. Results The TSLF of the studied forests ranges from 118 to 4870 cal. yr bp . Forests < 325 cal. yr bp are dominated by trees of the first post‐fire cohort and are not yet at equilibrium, whereas older forests show a reverse‐J diameter distribution typical of mature, old‐growth stands. The younger forests display faster height and radial growth‐rate patterns than the older forests, due to factors associated with long‐term forest development. Each of the stands examined established after severe fires that consumed all the soil organic material. Main conclusions Spruce–moss forests are able to self‐regenerate after fires that consume the organic layer, thus allowing seed regeneration at the soil surface. In the absence of fire the forests can remain in an equilibrium state. Once the forests mature, tree productivity eventually levels off and becomes stable. Further proof of the enduring stability of these forests, in between fire periods, lies in the ages of the stands. Stands with a TSLF of 325–4870 cal. yr bp all exhibited the same stand structure, tree growth rates and species characteristics. In the absence of fire, the spruce–moss forests are able to maintain themselves for thousands of years with no apparent degradation or change in forest type.     

Changes in fire regime break the legacy lock on successional trajectories in Alaskan boreal forest

Predicting plant community responses to changing environmental conditions is a key element of forecasting and mitigating the effects of global change. Disturbance can play an important role in these dynamics, by initiating cycles of secondary succession and generating opportunities for communities of long‐lived organisms to reorganize in alternative configurations. This study used landscape‐scale variations in environmental conditions, stand structure, and disturbance from an extreme fire year in Alaska to examine how these factors affected successional trajectories in boreal forests dominated by black spruce. Because fire intervals in interior Alaska are typically too short to allow relay succession, the initial cohorts of seedlings that recruit after fire largely determine future canopy composition. Consequently, in a dynamically stable landscape, postfire tree seedling composition should resemble that of the prefire forest stands, with little net change in tree composition after fire. Seedling recruitment data from 90 burned stands indicated that postfire establishment of black spruce was strongly linked to environmental conditions and was highest at sites that were moist and had high densities of prefire spruce. Although deciduous broadleaf trees were absent from most prefire stands, deciduous trees recruited from seed at many sites and were most abundant at sites where the fires burned severely, consuming much of the surface organic layer. Comparison of pre‐ and postfire tree composition in the burned stands indicated that the expected trajectory of black spruce self‐replacement was typical only at moist sites that burned with low fire severity. At severely burned sites, deciduous trees dominated the postfire tree seedling community, suggesting these sites will follow alternative, deciduous‐dominated trajectories of succession. Increases in the severity of boreal fires with climate warming may catalyze shifts to an increasingly deciduous‐dominated landscape, substantially altering landscape dynamics and ecosystem services in this part of the boreal forest.     

Latitudinal response of subarctic tree lines to recent climate change in eastern Canada

Aim The predictions from biogeographical models of poleward expansion of biomes under a warmer 2 × CO2 scenario might not be warranted, given the non‐climatic influences on vegetation dynamics. Milder climatic conditions have occurred in northern Québec, Canada, in the 20th century. The purpose of this study was to document the early signs of a northward expansion of the boreal forest into the subarctic forest‐tundra, a vast heterogeneous ecotone. Colonization of upland tundra sites by black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP.) forming local subarctic tree lines was quantified at the biome scale. Because it was previously shown that the regenerative potential of spruce is reduced with increasing latitude, we predicted that tree line advances and recent establishment of seedlings above tree lines will also decrease northwards. Location Black spruce regeneration patterns were surveyed across a > 300‐km latitudinal transect spanning the forest‐tundra of northern Québec, Canada (55°29′–58°27′ N). Methods Elevational transects were positioned at forest–tundra interfaces in two regions from the southern forest‐tundra and two regions from the northern forest‐tundra, including the arctic tree line. The surroundings of stunted black spruce, forming the species limit in the shrub tundra, were also examined. Position, total height and origin (seed or layer) of all black spruce stems established in the elevational transects were determined. Dendrochronological and topographical data allowed recent subarctic tree line advances to be estimated. Age structures of spruce recently established from seed (< 2.5 m high) were constructed and compared between forest‐tundra regions. Five to 20‐year heat sum (growing degree‐days, > 5 °C) and precipitation fluctuations were computed from regional climatic data, and compared with seedling recruitment patterns. Results During the 20th century, all tree lines from the southern forest‐tundra rose slightly through establishment of seed‐origin spruce, while some tree lines in the northern forest‐tundra rose through height growth of stunted spruce already established on the tundra hilltops. However, the rate of rise in tree lines did not slow down with latitude. The density of < 2.5‐m spruce established by seed declined exponentially with latitude. While the majority of < 2.5‐m spruce has established since the late 1970s on the southernmost tundra hilltops, the regeneration pool was mainly composed of old, suppressed individuals in the northern forest‐tundra. Spruce age generally decreased with increasing elevation in the southern forest‐tundra stands, therefore indicating current colonization of tundra hilltops. Although spruce reproductive success has improved over the twentieth century in the southern forest‐tundra, there was hardly any evidence that recruitment of seed‐origin spruce was controlled by 5‐ to 20‐year regional climatic fluctuations, except for winter precipitation. Main conclusions Besides the milder 20th century climate, local topographic factors appear to have influenced the rise in tree lines and recent establishment by seed. The effect of black spruce's semi‐serotinous cones in trapping seeds and the difficulty of establishment on exposed, drought‐prone tundra vegetation are some factors likely to explain the scarcity of significant correlations between tree establishment and climatic variables in the short term. The age data suggest impending reforestation of the southernmost tundra sites, although the development of spruce seedlings into forest might be slowed down by the harsh wind‐exposure conditions.     

The Origin and Dynamics of Subalpine White Spruce and Balsam Fir Stands in Boreal Eastern North America

Associations among the few tree species in the North American boreal landscape are the result of complex interactions between climate, biota, and historical disturbances during the Holocene. The closed-crown boreal forest of eastern North America is subdivided into two ecological regions having distinct tree species associations; the balsam fir zone and the black spruce zone, south and north of 49°N, respectively. Subalpine old-growth stands dominated by trees species typical of the balsam fir forest flora (either balsam fir or white spruce) are found on high plateaus, some of which are isolated within the black spruce zone. Here we identified the ecological processes responsible for the distinct forest associations in the subalpine belt across the eastern boreal landscape. Extensive radiocarbon dating, species composition, and size structure analyses indicated contrasted origin and dynamics of the subalpine forests between the two ecological regions. In the black spruce zone, the subalpine belt is a mosaic of post-fire white spruce or balsam fir stands coexisting at similar elevation on the high plateaus. With increasing time without wildfire, the subalpine forests become structurally similar to the balsam fir forest of the fir zone. These results concur with the hypothesis that the subalpine forests of this area are protected remnants of an historical northern expansion of the fir zone. Its replacement by the fire-prone black spruce forest flora was caused by recurrent fires. In the subalpine belt of the fir zone, no fire was recorded for several millennia. Harsh climate at high altitude is the primary factor explaining white spruce dominance over balsam fir forming a distinct subalpine white spruce belt above the balsam fir dominated forest.     

Persistence of balsam fir and black spruce populations in the mixedwood and coniferous bioclimatic domain of eastern North America

The boreal ecocline (ca 49°N) between the southern mixedwood (dominated by balsam fir) and the northern coniferous bioclimatic domain (dominated by black spruce) may be explained by a northward decrease of balsam fir regeneration, explaining the gradual shift to black spruce dominance. 7,010 sample plots, with absence of major disturbances, were provided by the Quebec Ministry of Forest, Fauna, and Parks. The regeneration (sapling abundance) of balsam fir and black spruce were compared within and between the two bioclimatic domains, accounting for parental trees, main soil type (clay and till) and climate conditions, reflected by summer growing degree‐days above 5°C (GDD_5), total summer precipitation (May–August; PP_MA). Parental trees and soil type determined balsam fir and black spruce regeneration. Balsam fir and black spruce, respectively, showed higher regeneration in the mixedwood and the coniferous bioclimatic domains. Overall, higher regeneration was obtained on till for balsam fir, and on clay soils for black spruce. GDD_5 and PP_MA were beneficial for balsam fir regeneration on clay and till soils, respectively, while they were detrimental for black spruce regeneration. At a population level, balsam fir required at least 28% of parental tree basal area in the mixedwood, and 38% in the coniferous bioclimatic domains to maintain a regeneration at least equal to the mean regeneration of the whole study area. However, black spruce required 82% and 79% of parental trees basal area in the mixedwood and the coniferous domains, respectively. The northern limit of the mixedwood bioclimatic domain was attributed to a gradual decrease toward the north of balsam fir regeneration most likely due to cooler temperatures, shorter growing seasons, and decrease of the parental trees further north of this northern limit. However, balsam fir still persists above this northern limit, owing to a patchy occurrence of small parental trees populations, and good establishment substrates.     

Landscape host abundance and configuration regulate periodic outbreak behavior in spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana

Landscape‐level forest management has long been hypothesized to affect forest insect outbreak dynamics, but empirical evidence remains elusive. We hypothesized that the combination of increased hardwood relative to host tree species, prevalence of younger forests, and fragmentation of those forests due to forest harvesting legacies would reduce outbreak intensity, increase outbreak frequency, and decrease spatial synchrony in spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana outbreaks. We investigated these hypotheses using tree ring samples collected across 51 sites pooled into 16 subareas distributed across a large ecoregion spanning the international border between Ontario (Canada), and Minnesota (USA). This ecoregion contains contrasting land management zones with clear differences in forest landscape structure (i.e. forest composition and spatial configuration) while minimizing the confounding influence of climate. Cluster analyses of the 76‐yr time‐series generally grouped by subareas found within the same land management zone. Spatial nonparametric covariance analysis indicated that the highest and lowest degree of spatial synchrony of spruce budworm outbreaks were found within unmanaged wilderness and lands managed at fine spatial scales in Minnesota, respectively. Using multivariate analysis, we also found that forest composition, configuration, and climate together accounted for a total of 40% of the variance in outbreak chronologies, with a high level of shared variance between composition and configuration (13%) and between composition and climate (9%). At the scale of our study, climate on its own did not explain any of the spatial variation in outbreaks. Outbreaks were of higher frequency, lower intensity, and less spatially synchronized in more fragmented, younger forests with a lower proportion of host species, with opposing outbreak characteristics observed in regions characterised by older forests with more concentrated host species. Our study is the first quantitative evaluation of the long‐standing ‘silvicultural hypothesis’ of spruce budworm management specifically conducted at a spatio‐temporal scale for which it was intended.     

Macrocharcoal-Based Chronosequences Reveal Shifting Dominance of Conifer Boreal Forests Under Changing Fire Regime

Balsam fir (Abies balsamea) and black spruce (Picea mariana) forests are the main conifer forest types in the North American boreal zone. The coexistence of the two species as well as their respective canopy dominance in distinct stands raises questions about the long-term evolution from one forest type to the other in relation to environmental factors including climate and stand disturbance. We tested the hypothesis that repetitive fire events promote the succession of balsam fir forest to black spruce forest and vice versa. Postfire chronosequences of one black spruce (BSP) and one balsam fir (BFI) sites were reconstructed based on the botanical composition and ¹⁴C-dated soil macrocharcoals. The results support the hypothesis of a successional dynamics. The BSP site has been affected by fires for the last 7600 years, whereas the BFI site, after having been impacted by several fires during the first half of the Holocene, evolved in a fire-free environment for the last 4400 years. Periods of fire activity facilitated the dominance of black spruce forests. The cessation of fires around 4400 cal. years BP on BFI site marks the beginning of the transition from black spruce to balsam fir stands. This succession is a long process, due to the ability of black spruce to regenerate by layering in the absence of fire. The resulting balsam fir stands are ancient and precarious ecosystems, since fire generally leads to the return of black spruce. The increase in balsam fir to the detriment of black spruce in boreal forests is a response to a decrease in fire frequency.     

Spatial and temporal variation in historic fire regimes in subalpine forests across the Colorado Front Range in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA

Aim The historical variability of fire regimes must be understood in the context of drivers of the occurrence of fire operating at a range of spatial scales from local site conditions to broad‐scale climatic variation. In the present study we examine fire history and variations in the fire regime at multiple spatial and temporal scales for subalpine forests of Engelmann spruce–subalpine fir (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa) and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) of the southern Rocky Mountains. Location The study area is the subalpine zone of spruce–fir and lodgepole pine forests in the southern sector of Rocky Mountain National Park (ROMO), Colorado, USA, which straddles the continental divide of the northern Colorado Front Range (40°20′ N and 105°40′ W). Methods We used a combination of dendroecological and Geographic Information System methods to reconstruct fire history, including fire year, severity and extent at the forest patch level, for c. 30,000 ha of subalpine forest. We aggregated fire history information at appropriate spatial scales to test for drivers of the fire regime at local, meso, and regional scales. Results The fire histories covered c. 30,000 ha of forest and were based on a total of 676 partial cross‐sections of fire‐scarred trees and 6152 tree‐core age samples. The subalpine forest fire regime of ROMO is dominated by infrequent, extensive, stand‐replacing fire events, whereas surface fires affected only 1–3% of the forested area. Main conclusions Local‐scale influences on fire regimes are reflected by differences in the relative proportions of stands of different ages between the lodgepole pine and spruce–fir forest types. Lodgepole pine stands all originated following fires in the last 400 years; in contrast, large areas of spruce–fir forests consisted of stands not affected by fire in the past 400 years. Meso‐scale influences on fire regimes are reflected by fewer but larger fires on the west vs. east side of the continental divide. These differences appear to be explained by less frequent and severe drought on the west side, and by the spread of fires from lower‐elevation mixed‐conifer montane forests on the east side. Regional‐scale climatic variation is the primary driver of infrequent, large fire events, but its effects are modulated by local‐ and meso‐scale abiotic and biotic factors. The low incidence of fire during the period of fire‐suppression policy in the twentieth century is not unique in comparison with the previous 300 years of fire history. There is no evidence that fire suppression has resulted in either the fire regime or current forest conditions being outside their historic ranges of variability during the past 400 years. Furthermore, in the context of fuel treatments to reduce fire hazard, regardless of restoration goals, the association of extremely large and severe fires with infrequent and exceptional drought calls into question the future effectiveness of tree thinning to mitigate fire hazard in the subalpine zone.     

Recent advance of white spruce (Picea glauca) in the coastal tundra of the eastern shore of Hudson Bay (Québec, Canada)

Aim The species‐specific response of tree‐line species to climatic forcing is a crucial topic in modelling climate‐driven ecosystem dynamics. In northern Québec, Canada, black spruce (Picea mariana) is the dominant species at the tree line, but white spruce (Picea glauca) also occurs along the maritime coast of Hudson Bay, and is expanding along the coast and on lands that have recently emerged because of isostatic uplift. Here we outline the present distribution, structure, dynamics and recent spread of white spruce from the tree line up to its northernmost position in the shrub tundra along the Hudson Bay coast. We aimed to obtain a minimum date of the arrival of the species in the area and to evaluate its dynamics relative to recent climate changes. Location White spruce populations and individuals were sampled along a latitudinal transect from the tree line to the northernmost individual in the shrub tundra along the Hudson Bay coast and in the Nastapoka archipelago in northern Québec and Nunavut, Canada (56°06′–56°32′ N). Methods White spruce populations were mapped, and the position, dimension, growth form and origin (seed or layering) of every individual recorded. Tree‐ring analyses of living and dead trees allowed an estimation of the population structure, past recruitment, growth trends and growth rate of the species. A macrofossil analysis was performed of the organic horizon of the northernmost white spruce stands and individuals. Radiocarbon dates of white spruce remains and organic matter were obtained. The rate of isostatic uplift was assessed by radiocarbon dating of drifted wood fragments. Results The first recorded establishment of white spruce was almost synchronous at all sites and occurred around ad 1660. Spruce recruitment was rather continuous at the tree line, while it showed a gap in the northern shrub tundra during the first decades of the 19th century. A vigorous, recent establishment of seedlings was observed in the shrub tundra; only wind‐exposed, low krummholz (stunted individuals) did not show any sexual regeneration. A period of suppressed growth occurred from the 1810s to the 1850s in most sites. A growth increase was evident from the second half of the 19th century and peaked in the 1880s and the 20th century. A shift from stunted to tree growth form has occurred since the mid‐19th century. No sample associated with white spruce remains gave a date older than 300 ¹⁴C years bp [calibrated age (cal.) ad 1430–1690]. Main conclusions White spruce probably arrived recently in the coastal tundra of Hudson Bay due to a delayed post‐glacial spread. The arrival of the species probably occurred during the Little Ice Age. The established individuals survived by layering during unfavourable periods, but acted as nuclei for sexual recruitment almost continuously, except in the northernmost and most exposed sites. Warmer periods were marked by strong seedling recruitment and a shift to tree growth form. Unlike white spruce, black spruce showed no evidence of an ongoing change in growth form and sexual recruitment. Ecological requirements and recent history of tree‐line species should be taken into account in order to understand the present dynamics of high‐latitude ecosystems.     

Modelling Variable Fire Severity in Boreal Forests: Effects of Fire Intensity and Stand Structure

It is becoming clear that fires in boreal forests are not uniformly stand-replacing. On the contrary, marked variation in fire severity, measured as tree mortality, has been found both within and among individual fires. It is important to understand the conditions under which this variation can arise. We integrated forest sample plot data, tree allometries and historical forest fire records within a diameter class-structured model of 1.0 ha patches of mono-specific black spruce and jack pine stands in northern Québec, Canada. The model accounts for crown fire initiation and vertical spread into the canopy. It uses empirical relations between fire intensity, scorch height, the percent of crown scorched and tree mortality to simulate fire severity, specifically the percent reduction in patch basal area due to fire-caused mortality. A random forest and a regression tree analysis of a large random sample of simulated fires were used to test for an effect of fireline intensity, stand structure, species composition and pyrogeographic regions on resultant severity. Severity increased with intensity and was lower for jack pine stands. The proportion of simulated fires that burned at high severity (e.g. >75% reduction in patch basal area) was 0.80 for black spruce and 0.11 for jack pine. We identified thresholds in intensity below which there was a marked sensitivity of simulated fire severity to stand structure, and to interactions between intensity and structure. We found no evidence for a residual effect of pyrogeographic region on simulated severity, after the effects of stand structure and species composition were accounted for. The model presented here was able to produce variation in fire severity under a range of fire intensity conditions. This suggests that variation in stand structure is one of the factors causing the observed variation in boreal fire severity.     

Phenological synchrony between eastern spruce budworm and its host trees increases with warmer temperatures in the boreal forest

Climate change is predicted to alter relationships between trophic levels by changing the phenology of interacting species. We tested whether synchrony between two critical phenological events, budburst of host species and larval emergence from diapause of eastern spruce budworm, increased at warmer temperatures in the boreal forest in northeastern Canada. Budburst was up to 4.6 ± 0.7 days earlier in balsam fir and up to 2.8 ± 0.8 days earlier in black spruce per degree increase in temperature, in naturally occurring microclimates. Larval emergence from diapause did not exhibit a similar response. Instead, larvae emerged once average ambient temperatures reached 10°C, regardless of differences in microclimate. Phenological synchrony increased with warmer microclimates, tightening the relationship between spruce budworm and its host species. Synchrony increased by up to 4.5 ± 0.7 days for balsam fir and up to 2.8 ± 0.8 days for black spruce per degree increase in temperature. Under a warmer climate, defoliation could potentially begin earlier in the season, in which case, damage on the primary host, balsam fir may increase. Black spruce, which escapes severe herbivory because of a 2‐week delay in budburst, would become more suitable as a resource for the spruce budworm. The northern boreal forest could become more vulnerable to outbreaks in the future.     

Warming counteracts defoliation‐induced mismatch by increasing herbivore‐plant phenological synchrony

Climate change is altering phenology; however, the magnitude of this change varies among taxa. Compared with phenological mismatch between plants and herbivores, synchronization due to climate has been less explored, despite its potential implications for trophic interactions. The earlier budburst induced by defoliation is a phenological strategy for plants against herbivores. Here, we tested whether warming can counteract defoliation‐induced mismatch by increasing herbivore‐plant phenological synchrony. We compared the larval phenology of spruce budworm and budburst in balsam fir, black spruce, and white spruce saplings subjected to defoliation in a controlled environment at temperatures of 12, 17, and 22°C. Budburst in defoliated saplings occurred 6–24 days earlier than in the controls, thus mismatching needle development from larval feeding. This mismatch decreased to only 3–7 days, however, when temperatures warmed by 5 and 10°C, leading to a resynchronization of the host with spruce budworm larvae. The increasing synchrony under warming counteracts the defoliation‐induced mismatch, disrupting trophic interactions and energy flow between forest ecosystem and insect populations. Our results suggest that the predicted warming may improve food quality and provide better growth conditions for larval development, thus promoting longer or more intense insect outbreaks in the future.     

Californian mixed-conifer forests under unmanaged fire regimes in the Sierra San Pedro Mártir, Baja California, Mexico

Aim This study appraises historical fire regimes for Californian mixed‐conifer forests of the Sierra San Pedro Mártir (SSPM). The SSPM represents the last remaining mixed‐conifer forest along the Pacific coast still subject to uncontrolled, periodic ground fire. Location The SSPM is a north–south trending fault bound range, centred on 31°N latitude, 100 km SE of Ensenada, Baja California. Methods We surveyed forests for composition, population structure, and historical dynamics both spatially and temporally over the past 65 years using repeat aerial photographs and ground sampling. Fire perimeter history was reconstructed based on time‐series aerial photographs dating from 1942 to 1991 and interpretable back to 1925. A total of 256 1‐ha sites randomly selected from aerial photographs were examined along a chronosequence for density and cover of canopy trees, density of snags and downed logs, and cover of non‐conifer trees and shrubs. Twenty‐four stands were sampled on‐the‐ground by a point‐centred quarter method which yielded data on tree density, basal area, frequency, importance value, and shrub and herb cover. Results Forests experience moderately intense understory fires that range in size to 6400 ha, as well as numerous smaller, low intensity burns with low cumulative spatial extent. SSPM forests average 25–45% cover and 65–145 trees per ha. Sapling densities were two to three times that of overstory trees. Size‐age distributions of trees ≥ 4 cm dbh indicate multi‐age stands with steady‐state dynamics. Stands are similar to Californian mixed conifer forests prior to the imposition of fire suppression policy. Livestock grazing does not appear to be suppressing conifer regeneration. Main conclusions Our spatially‐based reconstruction shows the open forest structure in SSPM to be a product of infrequent, intense surface fires with fire rotation periods of 52 years, rather than frequent, low intensity fires at intervals of 4–20 years proposed from California fire‐scar dendrochronology (FSD) studies. Ground fires in SSPM were intense enough to kill pole‐size trees and a significant number of overstory trees. We attribute long fire intervals to the gradual build‐up of subcontinuous shrub cover, conifer recruitment and litter accumulation. Differences from photo interpretation and FSD estimates are due to assumptions made with respect to site‐based (point) sampling of fire, and nonfractal fire intensities along fire size frequency distributions. Fire return intervals determined by FSD give undue importance to local burns which collectively use up little fuel, cover little area, and have little demographic impact on forests.     

Ecological mechanisms of population change during outbreaks of the spruce budworm

Abstract.  1. Stage-specific survival and recruitment of spruce budworm were measured by frequent sampling of foliage in four outbreak populations over a 15-year period in Ontario and Quebec, Canada.
2. Patterns of change in population density during the outbreak collapse phase were closely linked to changes in survival of the late immature stages, and were determined largely by the impact of natural enemies.
3. Host-plant feedback also contributed significantly to survival patterns throughout the outbreak: annual defoliation influenced survival of fourth and fifth instars and fecundity while cumulative defoliation influenced survival of the very early larval stages (first and second) via impacts on stand condition.
4. Inclusion of this host-plant feedback reveals spruce budworm population dynamics as a function of density-related trophic interactions that vary in their order and strength of influence over time. This view re-introduces the importance of forest interactions as a component of dynamics of the spruce budworm.     

Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland

Lowland boreal forest ecosystems in Alaska are dominated by wetlands comprised of a complex mosaic of fens, collapse‐scar bogs, low shrub/scrub, and forests growing on elevated ice‐rich permafrost soils. Thermokarst has affected the lowlands of the Tanana Flats in central Alaska for centuries, as thawing permafrost collapses forests that transition to wetlands. Located within the discontinuous permafrost zone, this region has significantly warmed over the past half‐century, and much of these carbon‐rich permafrost soils are now within ~0.5 °C of thawing. Increased permafrost thaw in lowland boreal forests in response to warming may have consequences for the climate system. This study evaluates the trajectories and potential drivers of 60 years of forest change in a landscape subjected to permafrost thaw in unburned dominant forest types (paper birch and black spruce) associated with location on elevated permafrost plateau and across multiple time periods (1949, 1978, 1986, 1998, and 2009) using historical and contemporary aerial and satellite images for change detection. We developed (i) a deterministic statistical model to evaluate the potential climatic controls on forest change using gradient boosting and regression tree analysis, and (ii) a 30 × 30 m land cover map of the Tanana Flats to estimate the potential landscape‐level losses of forest area due to thermokarst from 1949 to 2009. Over the 60‐year period, we observed a nonlinear loss of birch forests and a relatively continuous gain of spruce forest associated with thermokarst and forest succession, while gradient boosting/regression tree models identify precipitation and forest fragmentation as the primary factors controlling birch and spruce forest change, respectively. Between 1950 and 2009, landscape‐level analysis estimates a transition of ~15 km² or ~7% of birch forests to wetlands, where the greatest change followed warm periods. This work highlights that the vulnerability and resilience of lowland ice‐rich permafrost ecosystems to climate changes depend on forest type.     

Occurrence and effects of Nosema fumiferanae infections on adult spruce budworm caught above and within the forest canopy

1 Nosema fumiferanae infections in populations of both sexes of spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana moths, collected live above the forest canopy (canopy moths), within the tree crown (crown moths) and in drop trays (dead moths), were examined over a 5‐year period in New Brunswick, Canada. 2 The incidence of infection and of moderate–heavy infections in canopy and crown moths of both sexes increased concomitantly with moth eclosion, indicating that N. fumiferanae retards larval/pupal development, with infected moths, particularly those having higher disease loads, emerging later in the season. 3 Infection rates differed among canopy, crown, and dead female, but not male, moths. Canopy (i.e. emigrating) females had a lower incidence of infection, lower incidence of moderate–heavy infections, and had longer forewings and higher dry weights, than crown females. These results suggest that N. fumiferanae infections negatively affect aspects of female, but not male, flight performance. Regardless of infection, forewing length and dry weight of both canopy and crown females declined over the moth flight period, but infected females in both moth types were smaller than their uninfected counterparts. Forewing lengths and dry weights of moderately–heavily infected females were most severely affected. 4 Despite high annual infection rates in parents, only a small percentage of offspring (second‐instar larvae) that established feeding sites each spring were infected, indicating that high rates of horizontal transmission occurred annually throughout the larval period. 5 The present study indicates that whether N. fumiferanae infections are a debilitating sublethal factor in spruce budworm populations depends more on the disease load than on the overall incidence of infection. The potential importance of N. fumiferanae infections on various fitness parameters related to host dispersal is discussed.     

Shift of Conifer Boreal Forest to Lichen–Heath Parkland Caused by Successive Stand Disturbances

In the southern boreal forest (Québec, Canada), tree harvesting is a major disturbance affecting the dominant black spruce (Picea mariana) stands already suffering from naturally recurrent insect and fire disturbances. Although recovery of the spruce forest after an insect infestation or a fire is possible under current site conditions, it is less likely when both types of disturbance occur during a short period of time. The addition of yet another disturbance, such as tree harvesting, can thus have catastrophic consequences. We analyzed the impact of three successive disturbances—tree harvesting, insect infestation, and fire—on the regeneration of boreal spruce–moss forests within a period of approximately 50 years. The spruce forests were harvested in the 1940s and the 1950s. Recovery from the logging consisted of advance regeneration (spruce layers less than 1 m high that were left intact during clear-cuts), which was burned in 1991. The vegetation cover (mostly heath and lichen species) and soil conditions (acidic, nutrient-poor podzolic soils developed from coarse materials) of the postfire sites that we studied were similar. Stand structure and tree regeneration were documented from large quadrats (0.25 ha) using age, size, and tree ring data from postlogged and postfire spruce. At an early stage of development, the growing advance regeneration was damaged by insect defoliators in the late 1970s and the mid-1980s, and several trees died a few years before the 1991 fire. The successive disturbances considerably reduced the number of seed-bearers, leading to the collapse of postfire regeneration and a shift to parkland. Through a successional trajectory far from the expected trend for boreal forests influenced by single disturbance, the shift resulted in the formation of divergent plant communities. The development of divergent communities at the landscape scale is generally overlooked due to their small size. They indicate, however, the weak resilience of boreal forests faced with cascading perturbations, which are likely to increase in intensively logged areas.     

Controls on carbon consumption during Alaskan wildland fires

A method was developed to estimate carbon consumed during wildland fires in interior Alaska based on medium‐spatial scale data (60 m cell size) generated on a daily basis. Carbon consumption estimates were developed for 41 fire events in the large fire year of 2004 and 34 fire events from the small fire years of 2006–2008. Total carbon consumed during the large fire year (2.72 × 10⁶ ha burned) was 64.7 Tg C, and the average carbon consumption during the small fire years (0.09 × 10⁶ ha burned) was 1.3 Tg C. Uncertainties for the annual carbon emissions ranged from 13% to 21%. Carbon consumed from burning of black spruce forests represented 76% of the total during large fire years and 57% during small fire years. This was the result of the widespread distribution of black spruce forests across the landscape and the deep burning of the surface organic layers common to these ecosystems. Average carbon consumed was 3.01 kg m^?2 during the large fire year and 1.69 kg m^?2 during the small fire years. Most of the carbon consumption was from burning of ground layer fuels (85% in the large fire year and 78% in small fire years). Most of the difference in average carbon consumption between large and small fire years was in the consumption of ground layer fuels (2.60 vs. 1.31 kg m^?2 during large and small fire years, respectively). There was great variation in average fuel consumption between individual fire events (0.56–5.06 kg m^?2) controlled by variations in fuel types and topography, timing of the fires during the fire season, and variations in fuel moisture at the time of burning.     

Perturbations in the carbon budget of the tropics

The carbon budget of the tropics has been perturbed as a result of human influences. Here, we attempt to construct a ‘bottom‐up’ analysis of the biological components of the budget as they are affected by human activities. There are major uncertainties in the extent and carbon content of different vegetation types, the rates of land‐use change and forest degradation, but recent developments in satellite remote sensing have gone far towards reducing these uncertainties. Stocks of carbon as biomass in tropical forests and woodlands add up to 271 ± 16 Pg with an even greater quantity of carbon as soil organic matter. Carbon loss from deforestation, degradation, harvesting and peat fires is estimated as 2.01 ± 1.1 Pg annum^?1; while carbon gain from forest and woodland growth is 1.85 ± 0.09 Pg annum^?1. We conclude that tropical lands are on average a small carbon source to the atmosphere, a result that is consistent with the ‘top‐down’ result from measurements in the atmosphere. If they were to be conserved, they would be a substantial carbon sink. Release of carbon as carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning in the tropics is 0.74 Pg annum^?1 or 0.57 MgC person^?1 annum^?1, much lower than the corresponding figures from developed regions of the world.