Modelling the spatial dynamics and persistence of the leaf beetle Gonioctena olivacea in dynamic habitats

In dynamic landscapes natural and anthropogenic disturbance as well as succession are responsible for the emergence and subsequent disappearance of suitable habitat patches. Species inhabiting such landscapes are faced with varying number and spatial configuration of patches. A stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model was developed in order to analyse the persistence of the leaf beetle Gonioctena olivacea in a system of dynamic patches of its host plant Cytisus scoparius . The model was parameterized with data from a three-year field study on the spatial configuration, distribution, and turnover of the host plant patches as well as the patch occupancy, extinction, and colonization rates of the beetle. The simulations showed large fluctuations in the occurrence of the beetle in the patches. High levels of occupancy were related to high aggregation of the patches within the landscape. The velocity of patch turnover was found to have a severe effect on the persistence of the beetle metapopulation. Enhancing the turnover rate by only a few patches, the mean time to extinction decreases rapidly. Moreover, the results revealed that not necessarily an effect of connectivity can be detected in the analysis of occupancy patterns in dynamic landscapes, although the colonization of patches is clearly connectivity-dependent. In general, this modelling study demonstrates the importance of detailed information on patch turnover. The amount and spatial distribution of suitable habitat is a major driver of metapopulation dynamics of species in dynamic landscapes.     

Experimental beetle metapopulations respond positively to dynamic landscapes and reduced connectivity

Interactive effects of multiple environmental factors on metapopulation dynamics have received scant attention. We designed a laboratory study to test hypotheses regarding interactive effects of factors affecting the metapopulation dynamics of red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum. Within a four-patch landscape we modified resource level (constant and diminishing), patch connectivity (high and low) and patch configuration (static and dynamic) to conduct a 2(3) factorial experiment, consisting of 8 metapopulations, each with 3 replicates. For comparison, two control populations consisting of isolated and static subpopulations were provided with resources at constant or diminishing levels. Longitudinal data from 22 tri-weekly counts of beetle abundance were analyzed using bayesian Poisson generalized linear mixed models to estimate additive and interactive effects of factors affecting abundance. Constant resource levels, low connectivity and dynamic patches yielded greater levels of adult beetle abundance. For a given resource level, frequency of colonization exceeded extinction in landscapes with dynamic patches when connectivity was low, thereby promoting greater patch occupancy. Negative density dependence of pupae on adults occurred and was stronger in landscapes with low connectivity and constant resources; these metapopulations also demonstrated greatest stability. Metapopulations in control landscapes went extinct quickly, denoting lower persistence than comparable landscapes with low connectivity. When landscape carrying capacity was constant, habitat destruction coupled with low connectivity created asynchronous local dynamics and refugia within which cannibalism of pupae was reduced. Increasing connectivity may be counter-productive and habitat destruction/recreation may be beneficial to species in some contexts.     

Metapopulation dynamics of a beetle species confined to burned forest sites in a managed forest region

Despite increasing awareness of the theoretical importance of habitat dynamics on metapopulations, only a few empirical studies have been conducted. We aimed to increase our understanding of how patch size, dynamics and connectivity affect colonization–extinction dynamics and the occurrence patterns of a beetle (Stephanopachys linearis), which breeds only in burned trees, existing as dynamic habitat patches that have become rare in managed forest landscapes. We assessed species’ presence/absence twice in all known habitat patches (i.e. > 1 ha sites where forest fires had occurred during the previous 2–15 yr) in a 200 × 150 km region of central Sweden, dominated by managed boreal forest. Evaluated over six years, the colonization rate was 47% and the local extinction risk was 65%. Probability of colonization increased with patch size (number of suitable trees in a site) and connectivity to occupied patches within 30 km, and decreased with increasing time since fire. Local extinction risk decreased with habitat patch size but increased, unexpectedly, with connectivity. Occurrence increased with patch size and decreased with increasing time since fire. At a regional scale, S. linearis tracks the fire dynamics by colonising sites with burned trees and by becoming extinct at rates which make the species rare at sites where burnt trees are more than eight years old. In managed boreal forest landscapes, a large proportion of sites may be created by prescribed burning (in our study area: 82%), and consequently human decisions strongly affect the future amount of habitat for fire‐dependent species and its spatial distribution. Stephanopachys linearis uses burned sites more often if more trees are retained and, to some extent, if sites are concentrated in those parts of a region that already support high population densities of the species.     

Metacommunity,mainland‐island system or island communities? Assessing the regional dynamics of plant communities in a fragmented landscape

Understanding the regional dynamics of plant communities is crucial for predicting the response of plant diversity to habitat fragmentation. However, for fragmented landscapes the importance of regional processes, such as seed dispersal among isolated habitat patches, has been controversially debated. Due to the stochasticity and rarity of among‐patch dispersal and colonization events, we still lack a quantitative understanding of the consequences of these processes at the landscape‐scale. In this study, we used extensive field data from a fragmented, semi‐arid landscape in Israel to parameterize a multi‐species incidence‐function model. This model simulates species occupancy pattern based on patch areas and habitat configuration and explicitly considers the locations and the shapes of habitat patches for the derivation of patch connectivity. We implemented an approximate Bayesian computation approach for parameter inference and uncertainty assessment. We tested which of the three types of regional dynamics – the metacommunity, the mainland‐island, or the island communities type – best represents the community dynamics in the study area and applied the simulation model to estimate the extinction debt in the investigated landscape. We found that the regional dynamics in the patch‐matrix study landscape is best represented as a system of highly isolated ‘island’ communities with low rates of propagule exchange among habitat patches and consequently low colonization rates in local communities. Accordingly, the extinction rates in the local communities are the main drivers of community dynamics. Our findings indicate that the landscape carries a significant extinction debt and in model projections 33–60% of all species went extinct within 1000 yr. Our study demonstrates that the combination of dynamic simulation models with field data provides a promising approach for understanding regional community dynamics and for projecting community responses to habitat fragmentation. The approach bears the potential for efficient tests of conservation activities aimed at mitigating future losses of biodiversity.     

Metapopulation persistence in dynamic landscapes: the role of dispersal distance

Species associated with transient habitats need efficient dispersal strategies to ensure their regional survival. Using a spatially explicit metapopulation model, we studied the effect of the dispersal range on the persistence of a metapopulation as a function of the local population and landscape dynamics (including habitat patch destruction and subsequent regeneration). Our results show that the impact of the dispersal range depends on both the local population and patch growth. This is due to interactions between dispersal and the dynamics of patches and populations via the number of potential dispersers. In general, long-range dispersal had a positive effect on persistence in a dynamic landscape compared to short-range dispersal. Long-range dispersal increases the number of couplings between the patches and thus the colonisation of regenerated patches. However, long-range dispersal lost its advantage for long-term persistence when the number of potential dispersers was low due to small population growth rates and/or small patch growth rates. Its advantage also disappeared with complex local population dynamics and in a landscape with clumped patch distribution.     

Habitat quality of source patches and connectivity in fragmented landscapes

Because spatial connectivity is critical to dispersal success and persistence of species in highly fragmented landscapes, the way that we envision and measure connectivity is consequential for biodiversity conservation. Connectivity metrics used for predictive modeling of spatial turnover and patch occupancy for metapopulations, such as with Incidence Function Models (IFM), incorporate distances to and sizes of possible source populations. Here, our focus is on whether habitat quality of source patches also is considered in these connectivity metrics. We propose that effective areas (weighted by habitat quality) of source patches should be better surrogates for population size and dispersal potential compared to unadjusted patch areas. Our review of a representative sample of the literature revealed that only 12.5% of studies incorporated habitat quality of source patches into IFM-type connectivity metrics. Quality of source patches generally was not taken into account in studies even if habitat quality of focal patches was included in analyses. We provide an empirical example for a metapopulation of a rare wetland species, the round-tailed muskrat (Neofiber alleni), demonstrating that a connectivity metric based on effective areas of source patches better predicts patch colonization and occupancy than a metric that used simple patch areas. The ongoing integration of landscape ecology and metapopulation dynamics could be hastened by incorporating habitat quality of source patches into spatial connectivity metrics applied to species conservation in fragmented landscapes.     

The use of spatial concepts as a basis for designing a viable-habitat network: Conserving redstart (Phoenicurus phoenicurus) populations in Sherwood Forest, England

This paper presents a method for the design of a habitat network in a fragmented landscape. It employs metapopulation dynamics and connectivity to develop spatial rules which, together with the requirements of a target species, can be used to guide the creation of a network to improve population persistence. Using these guidelines, two conservation strategies of patch enlargement and corridor creation are developed. The spatial models used to produce the habitat network are described. The resulting maps show the network consisting of the source patches that could be occupied by stable populations and a number of patches, which could support viable local populations, situated in the proximity of the sources or linked to them. The approach could be used to inform decision-making in nature conservation and landscape planning.     

Area-dependent migration by ringlet butterflies generates a mixture of patchy population and metapopulation attributes

Interpretation of spatially structured population systems is critically dependent on levels of migration between habitat patches. If there is considerable movement, with each individual visiting several patches, there is one ”patchy population”; if there is intermediate movement, with most individuals staying within their natal patch, there is a metapopulation; and if (virtually) no movement occurs, then the populations are separate (Harrison 1991, 1994). These population types actually represent points along a continuum of much to no mobility in relation to patch structure. Therefore, interpretation of the effects of spatial structure on the dynamics of a population system must be accompanied by information on mobility. We use empirical data on movements by ringlet butterflies, Aphantopus hyperantus, to investigate two key issues that need to be resolved in spatially-structured population systems. First, do local habitat patches contain largely independent local populations (the unit of a metapopulation), or merely aggregations of adult butterflies (as in patchy populations)? Second, what are the effects of patch area on migration in and out of the patches, since patch area varies considerably within most real population systems, and because human landscape modification usually results in changes in habitat patch sizes? Mark-release-recapture (MRR) data from two spatially structured study systems showed that 63% and 79% of recaptures remained in the same patch, and thus it seems reasonable to call both systems metapopulations, with some capacity for separate local dynamics to take place in different local patches. Per capita immigration and emigration rates declined with increasing patch area, while the resident fraction increased. Actual numbers of emigrants either stayed the same or increased with area. The effect of patch area on movement of individuals in the system are exactly what we would have expected if A. hyperantus were responding to habitat geometry. Large patches acted as local populations (metapopulation units) and small patches simply as locations with aggregations (units of patchy populations), all within 0.5 km². Perhaps not unusually, our study system appears to contain a mixture of metapopulation and patchy-population attributes.     

A graph-based approach to investigating the influence of the landscape on population spread processes

Modelling of landscape connectivity is a key point in the study of the movement of populations within a given landscape. For studies focused on the preservation of biodiversity, graph-based methods provide an interesting framework to investigate the landscape influence on population spread processes. Such an approach is described here, based on the mapping of landscape categories in habitat patches, including a diachronic data set describing the population spread within the habitat patches. A minimum planar graph was built by computing spatial distances between all pairs of neighbouring patches. From this structure, two types of analysis are proposed: one focused on the links of the graph and consists in correlating spatial distances and gap indicators computed from the diachronic data. The other was based on the correlations between population data and connectivity metrics at the patch level. As an example, this approach was applied to the spread of the fossorial water vole on the Jura plateau (France), with annual population data covering eleven years from 1989 to 2000. Link analysis allowed to find an optimal set of resistance values used in the least-cost distances computations, and thus to build a relevant graph. From this graph, patch analysis displayed a cyclic correlation between a metric based on potential dispersal flux and the population density, outlining the strong role of landscape connectivity in the population spread. The present study clearly shows that landscape modelling and graph-based approach can produce parameters which are consistent with field observations and thus pave the way to simulating the effect of landscape modification on population dynamics.     

Spatially structured metapopulation models: global and local assessment of metapopulation capacity

We model metapopulation dynamics in finite networks of discrete habitat patches with given areas and spatial locations. We define and analyze two simple and ecologically intuitive measures of the capacity of the habitat patch network to support a viable metapopulation. Metapopulation persistence capacity lambda(M) defines the threshold condition for long-term metapopulation persistence as lambda(M)>delta, where delta is defined by the extinction and colonization rate parameters of the focal species. Metapopulation invasion capacity lambda(I) sets the condition for successful invasion of an empty network from one small local population as lambda(I)>delta. The metapopulation capacities lambda(M) and lambda(I) are defined as the leading eigenvalue or a comparable quantity of an appropriate "landscape" matrix. Based on these definitions, we present a classification of a very general class of deterministic, continuous-time and discrete-time metapopulation models. Two specific models are analyzed in greater detail: a spatially realistic version of the continuous-time Levins model and the discrete-time incidence function model with propagule size-dependent colonization rate and a rescue effect. In both models we assume that the extinction rate increases with decreasing patch area and that the colonization rate increases with patch connectivity. In the spatially realistic Levins model, the two types of metapopulation capacities coincide, whereas the incidence function model possesses a strong Allee effect characterized by lambda(I)=0. For these two models, we show that the metapopulation capacities can be considered as simple sums of contributions from individual habitat patches, given by the elements of the leading eigenvector or comparable quantities. We may therefore assess the significance of particular habitat patches, including new patches that might be added to the network, for the metapopulation capacities of the network as a whole. We derive useful approximations for both the threshold conditions and the equilibrium states in the two models. The metapopulation capacities and the measures of the dynamic significance of particular patches can be calculated for real patch networks for applications in metapopulation ecology, landscape ecology, and conservation biology.     

Relative importance of host plant patch geometry and habitat quality on the patterns of occupancy,extinction and density of the monophagous butterfly <Emphasis Type="Italic">Iolana iolas</Emphasis>

Habitat fragmentation is a major cause of species rarity and decline because it increases local population extinctions and reduces recolonisation rates of remnant patches. Although two major patch characteristics (area and connectivity) have been used to predict distribution patterns in fragmented landscapes, other factors can affect the occurrence of a species as well as the probability of it becoming extinct. In this paper, we study the spatial structure and dynamics of the butterfly Iolana iolas in a 75-patch network of its host plant (Colutea hispanica) to determine the relative importance of patch area, connectivity and habitat quality characteristics on occupancy, extinction and density over the period 2003–2006. Occupancy in 2003, incidence (proportion of years occupied) and probability of extinction were mostly affected by patch area. Smaller patches were less likely to be occupied because they had a higher probability of extinction, partly due to environmental stochasticity. The density of I. iolas was negatively related to patch area in all study years. Only in 2004 was the density of I. iolas positively influenced by fruit production per plant. Our results suggest that for I. iolas, and probably for other specialist butterflies with clearly delimited resource requirements, metapopulation dynamics can be satisfactorily predicted using only geometric variables because most habitat characteristics are subsumed in patch area. However, this hypothesis should be subject to further testing under diverse environmental conditions to evaluate the extent of its generalisation.     

Stochastic models for mainland-island metapopulations in static and dynamic landscapes

This paper has three primary aims: to establish an effective means for modelling mainland-island metapopulations inhabiting a dynamic landscape; to investigate the effect of immigration and dynamic changes in habitat on metapopulation patch occupancy dynamics; and to illustrate the implications of our results for decision-making and population management. We first extend the mainland-island metapopulation model of Alonso and McKane [Bull. Math. Biol. 64:913–958, 2002] to incorporate a dynamic landscape. It is shown, for both the static and the dynamic landscape models, that a suitably scaled version of the process converges to a unique deterministic model as the size of the system becomes large. We also establish that, under quite general conditions, the density of occupied patches, and the densities of suitable and occupied patches, for the respective models, have approximate normal distributions. Our results not only provide us with estimates for the means and variances that are valid at all stages in the evolution of the population, but also provide a tool for fitting the models to real metapopulations. We discuss the effect of immigration and habitat dynamics on metapopulations, showing thatmainland-like patches heavily influence metapopulation persistence, and we argue for adopting measures to increase connectivity between this large patch and the other island-like patches. We illustrate our results with specific reference to examples of populations of butterfly and the grasshopperBryodema tuberculata.     

Flight morphology corresponds to both surrounding landscape structure and local patch conditions in a highly specialized peatland butterfly (Lycaena epixanthe)

1. Movement mediates the response of populations and communities to landscape and habitat spatial structure, yet movement capability may itself be modified by selection pressures accompanying landscape change. Insect flight morphology can be affected by both the landscape surrounding habitat patches and the distribution of resources within habitat patches. 2. This study investigated the relative influence of local habitat patch conditions and surrounding landscape structure on variation in morphological traits associated with flight in the bog copper (Lycaena epixanthe), a butterfly endemic to temperate Nearctic peatlands. 3. Eight habitat patches were sampled to assess the influence of the surrounding landscape (connectivity of potential habitat and matrix composition) and patch size (an integrated proxy of resource density and spatial distribution) on investment into flight, measured by thorax and abdomen mass, and wing area. 4. The results revealed an effect of both local habitat conditions and landscape structure on flight‐related morphological traits. Increasing forest cover in the surrounding landscape, indicative of increased habitat patch isolation, corresponded with less mobile phenotypes in both sexes. Surrounding landscapes with more water were also generally associated with less mobile phenotypes. Investment into flight was greater in smaller peatlands in which host plant density is higher and more homogeneously distributed. 5. The present study highlights that morphological traits associated with mobility may be responding to both local habitat patch characteristics and surrounding landscape structure. It also supports the hypothesis that local habitat conditions contribute to morphological variation in butterflies.     

Temporal patch occupancy dynamics of the Siberian flying squirrel in a boreal forest landscape

Ability to predict species distribution in a landscape is of crucial importance for natural resource management and species conservation. Therefore, the understanding of species habitat requirements and spatio-temporal dynamics in occurrence is needed. We examined patch occupancy patterns of the Siberian flying squirrel Pteromys volans in northern Finland across a seven year study period. Forest patches dominated by mature spruce ( Picea abies ) in a study area (375 km²) were surveyed to monitor the presence or absence of the flying squirrel. The patch occupancy pattern was dynamic: about half of the habitat patches were occupied at least once during the study period and more patches were colonised than were abandoned. Patches that were continuously occupied (i.e. occupied during all sample periods) were typically of high quality (based on habitat and landscape characteristics), continuously unoccupied patches were usually of low quality, and intermediate quality patches were occupied intermittently. The variables explaining patch occupancy were similar each year, and a statistical model based on data from the year 2000 also predicted occupancy in 2004 with similar accuracy. However, data from a single survey were inadequate for identifying patches used intermittently by flying squirrels. Despite inconsistent occupancy, these patches may be important for the local persistence of flying squirrels. The dynamic occupancy pattern may thus affect estimates of suitable habitat area and identification of functional patch networks for landscape planning. These results emphasise the need for follow-up studies to better understand population patterns and processes in time.     

The taste of nectar – a neglected area of pollination ecology

We investigated the impact of landscape structure on landscape connectivity using a combination of simulation and empirical experiments. In a previous study we documented the movement behaviour of a specialized goldenrod beetle ( Trirhabda borealis Blake) in three kinds of patches: habitat (goldenrod) patches and two types of matrix patch (cut vegetation and cut vegetation containing camouflage netting as an impediment to movement). In the current study, we used this information to construct simulation and experimental landscapes consisting of mosaics of these three patch types, to study the effect of landscape structure on landscape connectivity, using the T. borealis beetle as a model system. In the simulation studies, landscape connectivity was based on movements of individual beetles, and was measured in six different ways. The simulations revealed that the six measures of landscape connectivity were influenced by different aspects of landscape structure, suggesting that: (1) landscape connectivity is a poorly defined concept, and (2) the same landscape may have different landscape connectivity values when different measures of landscape connectivity are used. There were two general predictions that held over all measures of landscape connectivity: (1) increasing interpatch distance significantly decreased landscape connectivity and (2) the influence of matrix elements on landscape connectivity was small in comparison to the influence of habitat elements. Empirical mark-release-resight experiments using Trirhabda beetles in experimental landscapes supported the simulation results.     

Anthropogenic landscape change promotes asymmetric dispersal and limits regional patch occupancy in a spatially structured bird population

1. Local extinctions in habitat patches and asymmetric dispersal between patches are key processes structuring animal populations in heterogeneous environments. Effective landscape conservation requires an understanding of how habitat loss and fragmentation influence demographic processes within populations and movement between populations. 2. We used patch occupancy surveys and molecular data for a rainforest bird, the logrunner (Orthonyx temminckii), to determine (i) the effects of landscape change and patch structure on local extinction; (ii) the asymmetry of emigration and immigration rates; (iii) the relative influence of local and between-population landscapes on asymmetric emigration and immigration; and (iv) the relative contributions of habitat loss and habitat fragmentation to asymmetric emigration and immigration. 3. Whether or not a patch was occupied by logrunners was primarily determined by the isolation of that patch. After controlling for patch isolation, patch occupancy declined in landscapes experiencing high levels of rainforest loss over the last 100 years. Habitat loss and fragmentation over the last century was more important than the current pattern of patch isolation alone, which suggested that immigration from neighbouring patches was unable to prevent local extinction in highly modified landscapes. 4. We discovered that dispersal between logrunner populations is highly asymmetric. Emigration rates were 39% lower when local landscapes were fragmented, but emigration was not limited by the structure of the between-population landscapes. In contrast, immigration was 37% greater when local landscapes were fragmented and was lower when the between-population landscapes were fragmented. Rainforest fragmentation influenced asymmetric dispersal to a greater extent than did rainforest loss, and a 60% reduction in mean patch area was capable of switching a population from being a net exporter to a net importer of dispersing logrunners. 5. The synergistic effects of landscape change on species occurrence and asymmetric dispersal have important implications for conservation. Conservation measures that maintain large patch sizes in the landscape may promote asymmetric dispersal from intact to fragmented landscapes and allow rainforest bird populations to persist in fragmented and degraded landscapes. These sink populations could form the kernel of source populations given sufficient habitat restoration. However, the success of this rescue effect will depend on the quality of the between-population landscapes.     

基于景观连接度的土地整理生态效应评价

近年来,土地整理区的生物多样性保护和景观功能的维持受到广泛关注。本文选取贵州省道真县洛龙镇国家重点土地整理项目区,运用基于结构与功能相结合景观连接度模型(综合连接度(IIC)和连接度概率(PC)),计算了500、1000、2000、3000和4000m种群迁移扩散距离阈值情景下,土地整理前后各生境斑块对景观连接度的重要程度,识别重要斑块变化范围,从功能角度评价整理后的生态效应。结果表明:连接度指数能较好地识别土地整理前后各生境斑块的重要类别及其改变;其中,巨型斑块所占面积最大,分别占总面积的57.0%和57.2%;小型斑块数目整理前后分别占斑块总数的48.0%和48.9%;空间上,斑块的重要性分布也产生一定的变化。整理后生境斑块的连通性较整理前也有所下降,IIC和PC平均值分别为0.434和0.680,且随着距离阈值的增大,连接度逐渐增大。巨型斑块对生境斑块景观连通性的相对重要值最大,中型斑块和大型斑块次之,小型斑块最低。研究表明,土地整理过程中,大面积生境斑块和"踏脚石"斑块对维持土地整理生态效益具有重要作用。     

Landscape genetic connectivity in European wildcat (Felis silvestris silvestris): a matter of food,shelters and demographic status of populations

Understanding landscape impacts on gene flow is necessary to plan comprehensive management and conservation strategies of both the species of interest and its habitat. Nevertheless, only a few studies have focused on the landscape genetic connectivity of the European wildcat, an umbrella species whose conservation allows the preservation of numerous other species and habitat types. We applied population and landscape genetics approaches, using genotypes at 30 microsatellites from 232 genetically-identified wildcats to determine if, and how, landscape impacted gene flow throughout France. Analyses were performed independently within two population patches: the historical north-eastern patch and the central patch considered as the colonization front. Our results showed that gene flow occurred at large spatial scales but also revealed significant spatial genetic structures within population patches. In both population patches, arable areas, pastures and permanent grasslands and lowly fragmented forested areas were permeable to gene flow, suggesting that shelters and dietary resources are among the most important parameters for French wildcat landscape connectivity, while distance to forest had no detectable effect. Anthropized areas appeared highly resistant in the north-eastern patch but highly permeable in the central patch, suggesting that different behaviours can be observed according to the demographic context in which populations are found. In line with this hypothesis, spatial distribution of genetic variability seemed uneven in the north-eastern patch and more clinal in the central patch. Overall, our results highlighted that European wildcat might be a habitat generalist species and also the importance of performing spatial replication in landscape genetics studies.

     

Do invasive species undergo metapopulation dynamics? A case study of the invasive Caspian gull,Larus cachinnans,in Poland

Aim The mechanisms of initial dispersal and habitat occupancy by invasive alien species are fundamental ecological problems. Most tests of metapopulation theory are performed on local population systems that are stable or in decline. In the current study we were interested in the usefulness of metapopulation theory to study patch occupancy, local colonization, extinction and the abundance of the invasive Caspian gull (Larus cachinnans) in its initial invasion stages. Location Waterbodies in Poland. Methods Characteristics of the habitat patches (waterbodies, 35 in total) occupied by breeding pairs of Caspian gulls and an equal sample of randomly selected unoccupied patches were compared with t‐tests. Based on presence–absence data from 1989 to 2006 we analysed factors affecting the probability of local colonization, extinction and the size of local populations using generalized linear models. Results Occupied habitat patches were significantly larger and less isolated (from other habitat patches and other local populations) and were located closer to rivers than empty patches. The proximity of local food resources (fish ponds, refuse dumps) positively affected the occurrence of breeding pairs. The probability of colonization was positively affected by patch area, and negatively by distances to fish ponds, nearest habitat patch, nearest breeding colony and to a river, and by higher forest cover around the patch boundaries. The probability of extinction was lower in patches with a higher number of breeding pairs and with a greater area of islets. The extinction probability increased with distances to other local populations, other habitat patches, fish ponds and to refuse dumps and with a higher cover of forest around the patch boundaries. The size of the local population decreased with distances to the nearest habitat patch, local population, river, fish pond and refuse dump. Local abundance was also positively affected by the area of islets in the patch. Main conclusions During the initial stages of the invasion of Caspian gulls in Poland the species underwent metapopulation‐like dynamics with frequent extinctions from colonized habitat patches. The results prove that metapopulation theory may be a useful conceptual framework for predicting which habitats are more vulnerable to invasion.     

Remnants fragments preserve genetic diversity of the old forest lichen <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lobaria pulmonaria</Emphasis> in a fragmented Mediterranean mountain forest

Fragmentation represents a serious threat to biodiversity worldwide, however its effects on epiphytic organisms is still poorly understood. We study the effect of habitat fragmentation on the genetic population structure and diversity of the red-listed epiphytic lichen, Lobaria pulmonaria, in a Mediterranean forest landscape. We tested the relative importance of forest patch quality, matrix surrounding fragments and connectivity on the genetic variation within populations and the differentiation among them. A total of 855 thalli were sampled in 44 plots (400 m²) of 31 suitable forest fragments (beeches and oaks), in the Sierra de Ayllón in central Spain. Variables related to landscape attributes of the remnant forest patches such as size and connectivity and also the nature of the matrix or tree species had no significant effects on the genetic diversity of L. pulmonaria. Values of genetic diversity (Nei’s) were only affected by habitat quality estimated as the age patches. Most of the variation (76%) in all populations was observed at the smallest sampled unit (plots). Using multiple regression analysis, we found that habitat quality is more important in explaining the genetic structure of the L. pulmonaria populations than spatial distance. The relatively high level of genetic diversity of the species in old forest patches regardless of patch size indicates that habitat quality in a highly structured forest stand determines the population size and distribution pattern of this species and its associated lichen community. Thus, conservation programmes of Mediterranean mountain forests have to prioritize area and habitat quality of old forest patches.