Combining capture–recapture data and pedigree information to assess heritability of demographic parameters in the wild

Quantitative genetic analyses have been increasingly used to estimate the genetic basis of life‐history traits in natural populations. Imperfect detection of individuals is inherent to studies that monitor populations in the wild, yet it is seldom accounted for by quantitative genetic studies, perhaps leading to flawed inference. To facilitate the inclusion of imperfect detection of individuals in such studies, we develop a method to estimate additive genetic variance and assess heritability for binary traits such as survival, using capture–recapture (CR) data. Our approach combines mixed‐effects CR models with a threshold model to incorporate discrete data in a standard ‘animal model’ approach. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework to estimate model parameters. We illustrate our approach using data from a wild population of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and present the first estimate of heritability of adult survival in the wild. In agreement with the prediction that selection should deplete additive genetic variance in fitness, we found that survival had low heritability. Because the detection process is incorporated, capture–recapture animal models (CRAM) provide unbiased quantitative genetics analyses of longitudinal data collected in the wild.     

Phenotypic selection and covariation in the life‐history traits of elephant seals: heavier offspring gain a double selective advantage

Early developmental conditions contribute to individual heterogeneity of both phenotypic traits and fitness components, ultimately affecting population dynamics. Although the demographic consequences of ontogenic growth are best quantified using an integrated measure of fitness, most analyses to date have instead studied individual fitness components in isolation. Here, we estimated phenotypic selection on weaning mass in female southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina by analyzing individual‐based data collected between 1986 and 2016 with capture–recapture and matrix projection models. In support of a hypothesis predicting a gradual decrease of weaning mass effects with time since weaning (the replacement hypothesis), we found that the estimated effects of weaning mass on future survival and recruitment probability was of intermediate duration (rather than transient or permanent). Heavier female offspring had improved odds of survival in early life and a higher probability to recruit at an early age. The positive link between weaning mass and recruitment age is noteworthy, considering that pre‐recruitment mortality already imposed a strong selective filter on the population, leaving only the most ‘robust’ individuals to reproduce. The selection gradient on asymptotic population growth rate, a measure of mean absolute fitness, was weaker than selection on first‐year survival and recruitment probabilities. Weaker selection on mean fitness occurs because weaning mass has little impact on adult survival, the fitness component to which the population growth of long‐lived species is most sensitive. These results highlight the need to interpret individual variation in phenotypic traits in a context that considers the demographic pathways between the trait and an inclusive proxy of individual fitness. Although variation in weaning mass do not translate to permanent survival differences among individuals in adulthood, it explains heterogeneity and positive covariation between survival and breeding in early life, which contribute to between‐individual variation in fitness.     

Fluctuating viability selection on morphology of cliff swallows is driven by climate

The extent to which fluctuating selection can maintain evolutionary stasis in most populations remains an unresolved question in evolutionary biology. Climate has been hypothesized to drive reversals in the direction of selection among different time periods and may also be responsible for intense episodic selection caused by rare weather events. We measured viability selection associated with morphological traits in cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) in western Nebraska, USA, over a 14‐year period following a rare climatic event. We used mark‐recapture to estimate the annual apparent survival of over 26 000 individuals whose wing, tail, tarsus and bill had been measured. The fitness functions associated with tarsus length and bill dimensions fluctuated depending on annual climate conditions on the birds' breeding grounds. The oscillating yearly patterns may have slowed and occasionally reversed directional change in trait trajectories, although there was a trend over time for all traits except tarsus to increase in size. The net positive directional selection on some traits, despite periodic climate‐associated fluctuations, suggests that cliff swallow morphology in the population is likely to keep changing and supports recent work contending that selection in general does not fluctuate enough to be an effective driver of stasis.     

Experimental manipulation reveals differential effects of colour pattern on survival in male and female pygmy grasshoppers

Populations of pygmy grasshoppers, Tetrix subulata, exhibit genetically coded discontinuous variation in colour pattern. To determine whether the dynamics of this polymorphism is likely to be affected by selective processes, rather than by stochastic events, we experimentally manipulated colour patterns of free-ranging grasshoppers and then calculated and controlled for differences in capture probabilities between categories of individuals before estimating and testing for differences in survival using mark–recapture data and program SURGE . We found that paint treatment had a significant effect on survival, and that the relationship between colour pattern and survival was different in males and females. Our analyses also revealed significant differences between sexes in relative frequencies of natural colour morphs, body size, activity pattern, dispersal distance and microhabitat use. These findings accord with the hypothesis that colour pattern and behaviour jointly determine susceptibility to visual predators. Our data enable us to reject the null-hypothesis that colour pattern is a selectively neutral character and that the polymorphism is maintained solely by stochastic processes, such as random genetic drift and founder events. Indeed, the effect of dorsal coloration on survival, together with associations between colour pattern and many biologically important traits (body size, behaviour, thermal capacity, physiology and reproductive performance), suggests that colour pattern is likely to significantly influence individual fitness, and that the polymorphism must be maintained by some active process, such as spatially variable selection in combination with gene flow. The possible role of colour polymorphism as an intermediate stage in the evolution of sexual dichromatism in animals is discussed.     

Effect of haemosporidian infections on host survival and recapture rate in the blue tit

Parasites are ubiquitous in the wild and by imposing fitness costs on their hosts they constitute an important selection factor. One of the most common parasites of wild birds are Plasmodium and Haemoproteus, protozoans inhabiting the blood, which cause avian malaria and malaria‐like disease, respectively. Although they are expected to cause negative effects in infected individuals, in many cases studies in natural populations failed to detect such effect. Using data from seven breeding seasons (2008–2014), we applied a multistate capture–mark–recapture approach to study the effect of infection with malaria and malaria‐like parasites, individual age and sex on the probability of survival and recapture rate in a small passerine, the blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus, inhabiting the island of Gotland, Sweden. We found no effect of infection on survival prospects. However, the recapture rate of infected individuals was higher than that of uninfected ones. Thus, while our data do not support the presence of infection costs in terms of host survival, it suggests that parasites from the genera Plasmodium and Haemoproteus may affect some aspects of host behaviour, which translates into biased estimation of infection frequency at the population level.     

Natural selection on immune defense: A field experiment

Predicting the evolution of phenotypic traits requires an understanding of natural selection on them. Despite its indispensability in the fight against parasites, selection on host immune defense has remained understudied. Theory predicts immune traits to be under stabilizing selection due to associated trade‐offs with other fitness‐related traits. Empirical studies, however, report mainly positive directional selection. This discrepancy could be caused by low phenotypic variation in the examined individuals and/or variation in host resource level that confounds trade‐offs in empirical studies. In a field experiment where we maintained Lymnaea stagnalis snails individually in cages in a lake, we investigated phenotypic selection on two immune defense traits, phenoloxidase (PO)‐like activity and antibacterial activity, in hemolymph. We used a diverse laboratory population and manipulated snail resource level by limiting their food supply. For six weeks, we followed immune activity, growth, and two fitness components, survival and fecundity of snails. We found that PO‐like activity and growth were under stabilizing selection, while antibacterial activity was under positive directional selection. Selection on immune traits was mainly driven by variation in survival. The form of selection on immune defense apparently depends on the particular trait, possibly due to its importance for countering the present parasite community.     

Selection based on the size of the black tie of the great tit may be reversed in urban habitats

A standard approach to model how selection shapes phenotypic traits is the analysis of capture–recapture data relating trait variation to survival. Divergent selection, however, has never been analyzed by the capture–recapture approach. Most reported examples of differences between urban and nonurban animals reflect behavioral plasticity rather than divergent selection. The aim of this paper was to use a capture–recapture approach to test the hypothesis that divergent selection can also drive local adaptation in urban habitats. We focused on the size of the black breast stripe (i.e., tie width) of the great tit (Parus major), a sexual ornament used in mate choice. Urban great tits display smaller tie sizes than forest birds. Because tie size is mostly genetically determined, it could potentially respond to selection. We analyzed capture/recapture data of male great tits in Barcelona city (N = 171) and in a nearby (7 km) forest (N = 324) from 1992 to 2008 using MARK. When modelling recapture rate, we found it to be strongly influenced by tie width, so that both for urban and forest habitats, birds with smaller ties were more trap‐shy and more cautious than their larger tied counterparts. When modelling survival, we found that survival prospects in forest great tits increased the larger their tie width (i.e., directional positive selection), but the reverse was found for urban birds, with individuals displaying smaller ties showing higher survival (i.e., directional negative selection). As melanin‐based tie size seems to be related to personality, and both are heritable, results may be explained by cautious personalities being favored in urban environments. More importantly, our results show that divergent selection can be an important mechanism in local adaptation to urban habitats and that capture–recapture is a powerful tool to test it.     

SOCIAL CAUSES OF CORRELATIONAL SELECTION AND THE RESOLUTION OF A HERITABLE THROAT COLOR POLYMORPHISM IN A LIZARD

Abstract When selection acts on social or behavioral traits, the fitness of an individual depends on the phenotypes of its competitors. Here, we describe methods and statistical inference for measuring natural selection in small social groups. We measured selection on throat color alleles that arises from microgeographic variation in allele frequency at natal sites of side‐blotched lizards (Uta stansburiana). Previous game‐theoretic analysis indicates that two color morphs of female side‐blotched lizards are engaged in an offspring quantity‐quality game that promotes a density‐and frequency‐dependent cycle. Orange‐throated females are r‐strategists. They lay large clutches of small progeny, which have poor survival at high density, but good survival at low density. In contrast, yellow‐throated females are K‐strategists. They lay small clutches of large progeny, which have good survival at high density. We tested three predictions of the female game: (1) orange progeny should have a fitness advantage at low density; (2) correlational selection acts to couple color alleles and progeny size; and (3) this correlational selection arises from frequency‐dependent selection in which large hatchling size confers an advantage, but only when yellow alleles are rare. We also confirmed the heritability of color, and therefore its genetic basis, by producing progeny from controlled matings. A parsimonious cause of the high heritability is that three alleles (o, b, y) segregate as one genetic factor. We review the physiology of color formation to explain the possible genetic architecture of the throat color trait. Heritability of color was nearly additive in our breeding study, allowing us to compute a genotypic value for each individual and thus predict the frequency of progeny alleles released on 116 plots. Rather than study the fitness of individual progeny, we studied how the fitness of their color alleles varied with allele frequency on plots. We confirmed prediction 1: When orange alleles are present in female progeny, they have higher fitness at low density when compared to other alleles. Even though the difference in egg size of the female morphs was small (0.02 g), it led to knife‐edged survival effects for their progeny depending on local social context. Selection on hatchling survival was not only dependent on color alleles, but on a fitness interaction between color alleles and hatchling size, which confirmed prediction 2. Sire effects, which are not confounded by maternal phenotype, allowed us to resolve the frequency dependence of correlational selection on egg size and color alleles and thereby confirmed prediction 3. Selection favored large size when yellow sire alleles were rare, but small size when they were common. Correlational selection promotes the formation of a self‐reinforcing genetic correlation between the morphs and life‐history variation, which causes selection in the next density and frequency cycle to be exacerbated. We discuss general conditions for the evolution of self‐reinforcing genetic correlations that arise from social selection associated with frequency‐dependent sexual and natural selection.     

An integrated analysis of phenotypic selection on insect body size and development time

Most studies of phenotypic selection do not estimate selection or fitness surfaces for multiple components of fitness within a unified statistical framework. This makes it difficult or impossible to assess how selection operates on traits through variation in multiple components of fitness. We describe a new generation of aster models that can evaluate phenotypic selection by accounting for timing of life‐history transitions and their effect on population growth rate, in addition to survival and reproductive output. We use this approach to estimate selection on body size and development time for a field population of the herbivorous insect, Manduca sexta (Lepidoptera: Sphingidae). Estimated fitness surfaces revealed strong and significant directional selection favoring both larger adult size (via effects on egg counts) and more rapid rates of early larval development (via effects on larval survival). Incorporating the timing of reproduction and its influence on population growth rate into the analysis resulted in larger values for size in early larval development at which fitness is maximized, and weaker selection on size in early larval development. These results illustrate how the interplay of different components of fitness can influence selection on size and development time. This integrated modeling framework can be readily applied to studies of phenotypic selection via multiple fitness components in other systems.     

Characterizing selection in black‐throated blue warblers using a sexual network approach

Our understanding of trait evolution is built upon studies that examine the correlation between traits and fitness, most of which implicitly assume all individuals experience similar selective environments. However, accounting for differences in selective pressures, such as variation in the social environment, can advance our understanding of how selection shapes individual traits and subsequent fitness. In this study, we test whether variation in the social environment affects selection on individual phenotype. We apply a new sexual network framework to quantify each male's social environment as the mean body size of his primary competitors. We test for direct and social selection on male body size using a 10‐year data set on black‐throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens), a territorial species for which body size is hypothesized to mediate competition for mates. We found that direct selection on body size was weak and nonsignificant, as was social selection via the body size of the males' competitors. Analysing both types of selection simultaneously allows us to firmly reject a role for body size in competitive interactions between males and subsequent male fitness in this population. We evaluate the application of the sexual network approach to empirical data and suggest that other phenotypic traits such as song characteristics and plumage may be more relevant than body size for male–male competition in this small passerine bird.     

Evolutionary quantitative genetics of behavioral responses to handling in a wild passerine

Behavioral differences between individuals that are consistent over time characterize animal personality. The existence of such consistency contrasts to the expectation based on classical behavioral theory that facultative behavior maximizes individual fitness. Here, we study two personality traits (aggression and breath rate during handling) in a wild population of blue tits during 2007–2012. Handling aggression and breath rate were moderately heritable (h² = 0.35 and 0.20, respectively) and not genetically correlated (r_A = 0.06) in adult blue tits, which permits them to evolve independently. Reciprocal cross‐fostering (2007–2010) showed that offspring reared by more aggressive males have a higher probability to recruit. In addition, offspring reared by pairs mated assortatively for handling aggression had a higher recruitment probability, which is the first evidence that both parents' personalities influence their reproductive success in the wild in a manner independent of their genetic effects. Handling aggression was not subjected to survival selection in either sex, but slow‐breathing females had a higher annual probability of survival as revealed by capture–mark–recapture analysis. We find no evidence for temporal fluctuations in selection, and thus conclude that directional selection (via different fitness components) acts on these two heritable personality traits. Our findings show that blue tit personality has predictable fitness consequences, but that facultative adjustment of an individual's personality to match the fitness maximum is likely constrained by the genetic architecture of personality. In the face of directional selection, the presence of heritable variation in personality suggests the existence of a trade‐off that we have not identified yet.     

Evidence of a link between survival and pair fidelity across multiple tit populations

Although they have the potential to strongly influence individual fitness and the dynamics and productivity of populations, the survival consequences of pairing outcomes and the influence of current pairing outcomes on those in the future have rarely been addressed. Previously, we have shown that pair fidelity increases both survival and future pair fidelity in a population of great tits Parus major. The aim of this study was to explore the generality of our previous findings by evaluating the influence of current paring outcomes on survival and on future pairing outcomes in two different species and in different populations. We addressed our aims within a multievent capture–mark–recapture (MECMR) statistical framework, which accounts for differences in recapture rates and uncertainty in the assignment of pair status (i.e. whether an individual is breeding with the same partner or not). We applied the framework to breeding records of two great tit populations and one blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus population. We detected survival benefits (i.e. increased survival) of pair fidelity in all three populations. These were similar in both great tit populations, but higher for male great tits than for male blue tits. We found that age‐dependence in the rate of pair fidelity was shared between different populations and species, but did not detect any influence of current pair status on future pair status. Our study highlights the importance of considering survival when studying the fitness benefits of pair fidelity. Some of the differences in pair fidelity rates and survival benefits of pair fidelity are likely the result of long‐term and short‐term demographic and environmental factors in the population. We advocate the use of the MECMR framework used here for further exploration of these differences.     

Trade‐off between fecundity and survival generates stabilizing selection on gall size

Complex interactions within multitrophic communities are fundamental to the evolution of individual species that reside within them. One common outcome of species interactions are fitness trade‐offs, where traits adaptive in some circumstances are maladaptive in others. Here, we identify a fitness trade‐off between fecundity and survival in the cynipid wasp Callirhytis quercusbatatoides that induces multichambered galls on the stem of its host plant Quercus virginiana. We first quantified this trade‐off in natural populations by documenting two relationships: a positive association between the trait gall size and fecundity, as larger galls contain more offspring, and a negative association between gall size and survival, as larger galls are attacked by birds at a higher rate. Next, we performed a field‐based experimental evolution study where birds were excluded from the entire canopy of 11 large host trees for five years. As a result of the five‐year release from avian predators, we observed a significant shift to larger galls per tree. Overall, our study demonstrates how two opposing forces of selection can generate stabilizing selection on a critical phenotypic trait in wild populations, and how traits can evolve rapidly in the predicted direction when conditions change.     

When perception reflects reality: Non‐native grass invasion alters small mammal risk landscapes and survival

Modification of habitat structure due to invasive plants can alter the risk landscape for wildlife by, for example, changing the quality or availability of refuge habitat. Whether perceived risk corresponds with actual fitness outcomes, however, remains an important open question. We simultaneously measured how habitat changes due to a common invasive grass (cheatgrass, Bromus tectorum) affected the perceived risk, habitat selection, and apparent survival of a small mammal, enabling us to assess how well perceived risk influenced important behaviors and reflected actual risk. We measured perceived risk by nocturnal rodents using a giving‐up density foraging experiment with paired shrub (safe) and open (risky) foraging trays in cheatgrass and native habitats. We also evaluated microhabitat selection across a cheatgrass gradient as an additional assay of perceived risk and behavioral responses for deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) at two spatial scales of habitat availability. Finally, we used mark‐recapture analysis to quantify deer mouse apparent survival across a cheatgrass gradient while accounting for detection probability and other habitat features. In the foraging experiment, shrubs were more important as protective cover in cheatgrass‐dominated habitats, suggesting that cheatgrass increased perceived predation risk. Additionally, deer mice avoided cheatgrass and selected shrubs, and marginally avoided native grass, at two spatial scales. Deer mouse apparent survival varied with a cheatgrass–shrub interaction, corresponding with our foraging experiment results, and providing a rare example of a native plant mediating the effects of an invasive plant on wildlife. By synthesizing the results of three individual lines of evidence (foraging behavior, habitat selection, and apparent survival), we provide a rare example of linkage between behavioral responses of animals indicative of perceived predation risk and actual fitness outcomes. Moreover, our results suggest that exotic grass invasions can influence wildlife populations by altering risk landscapes and survival.     

Evolution of plant resistance and tolerance to frost damage

Plant defence against any type of stress may involve resistance (traits that reduce damage) or tolerance (traits that reduce the negative fitness impacts of damage). These two strategies have been proposed as redundant evolutionary alternatives. A late‐season frost enabled us to estimate natural selection and genetic constraints on the evolution of frost resistance and tolerance in a wild plant species. We employed a genetic selection analysis (which is unbiased by environmental correlations between traits and fitness) on 75 paternal half‐sibling families of annual wild radish [Raphanus raphanistrum (Brassicaceae)]. In an experimental population in southern Ontario, we found strong selection favouring plant resistance to frost, but selection against tolerance to frost. The selection against tolerance may have been caused by a cost of tolerance, as we provide evidence for a negative genetic correlation between tolerance and fitness in the absence of frost damage. Although we found no evidence for the theoretically predicted trade‐off between frost tolerance and resistance among our families, we did detect negative correlational selection acting on the two traits, indicating that natural selection favoured high resistance combined with low tolerance and low resistance coupled with high tolerance, but not high or low levels of both traits together. There were few genetic correlations between the measured traits overall, but frost tolerance was negatively correlated with initial seed mass, and frost resistance was positively correlated with resistance to insect herbivory. Periodic episodes of strong selection such as that caused by the late‐season frost may be disproportionately important in evolution, and are likely becoming more common because of human alterations of the environment.     

The danger of applying the breeder's equation in observational studies of natural populations

The breeder's equation, which predicts evolutionary change when a phenotypic covariance exists between a heritable trait and fitness, has provided a key conceptual framework for studies of adaptive microevolution in nature. However, its application requires strong assumptions to be made about the causation of fitness variation. In its univariate form, the breeder's equation assumes that the trait of interest is not correlated with other traits having causal effects on fitness. In its multivariate form, the validity of predicted change rests on the assumption that all such correlated traits have been measured and incorporated into the analysis. Here, we (i) highlight why these assumptions are likely to be seriously violated in studies of natural, rather than artificial, selection and (ii) advocate wider use of the Robertson–Price identity as a more robust, and less assumption‐laden, alternative to the breeder's equation for applications in evolutionary ecology.     

Lifetime reproductive success,selection on lifespan,and multiple sexual ornaments in male European barn swallows

Natural and sexual selection arise when individual fitness varies according to focal traits. Extra‐pair paternities (EPPs) can affect the intensity of selection by influencing variance in fitness among individuals. Studies of selection require that individual fitness is estimated using proxies of lifetime reproductive success (LRS). However, estimating LRS is difficult in large, open populations where EPPs cause reallocation of biological paternity. Here, we used extensive field sampling to estimate LRS in a population of barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) to estimate selection on lifespan and ornamental traits of males. We found selection on lifespan mediated both by within‐ and extra‐pair fertilization success and selection on tail length mediated by within‐ but not extra‐pair fertilization success. In addition, we found selection on tail white spots via extra‐pair fertilization success after controlling for selection on other traits. These results were not confounded by factors that hamper studies of LRS, including nonexhaustive sampling of offspring and biased sampling of males. Hence, natural and sexual selection mediated by LRS operates on lifespan, tail length, and size of the tail white spots in barn swallows.     

Heterozygosity–fitness correlations in a wild mammal population: accounting for parental and environmental effects

HFCs (heterozygosity–fitness correlations) measure the direct relationship between an individual's genetic diversity and fitness. The effects of parental heterozygosity and the environment on HFCs are currently under‐researched. We investigated these in a high‐density U.K. population of European badgers (Meles meles), using a multimodel capture–mark–recapture framework and 35 microsatellite loci. We detected interannual variation in first‐year, but not adult, survival probability. Adult females had higher annual survival probabilities than adult males. Cubs with more heterozygous fathers had higher first‐year survival, but only in wetter summers; there was no relationship with individual or maternal heterozygosity. Moist soil conditions enhance badger food supply (earthworms), improving survival. In dryer years, higher indiscriminate mortality rates appear to mask differential heterozygosity‐related survival effects. This paternal interaction was significant in the most supported model; however, the model‐averaged estimate had a relative importance of 0.50 and overlapped zero slightly. First‐year survival probabilities were not correlated with the inbreeding coefficient (f); however, small sample sizes limited the power to detect inbreeding depression. Correlations between individual heterozygosity and inbreeding were weak, in line with published meta‐analyses showing that HFCs tend to be weak. We found support for general rather than local heterozygosity effects on first‐year survival probability, and g2 indicated that our markers had power to detect inbreeding. We emphasize the importance of assessing how environmental stressors can influence the magnitude and direction of HFCs and of considering how parental genetic diversity can affect fitness‐related traits, which could play an important role in the evolution of mate choice.     

An integrated population model for a long‐lived ungulate: more efficient data use with Bayesian methods

We develop an integrated population model for Svalbard reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus, and demonstrate how this type of model can be used to extract more information from the data and separate different sources of variability in population estimates. Our model combines individual mark–recapture data with population counts and harvesting data within a Bayesian model framework, and accounts for observation error, environmental and demographic stochasticity, and age structure. From this model we obtain annual estimates of age‐specific population size, survival and fecundity. The model provides estimates of age structure at a finer scale than that found in the census data, and enables us to estimate survival for the period before calves are first caught and marked, i.e. before they enter the individual mark–recapture data. The modeling framework provides an improved approach to studying age‐structured populations that are imperfectly censused and where the demography of only a sample of individuals is known. We use data from independent censuses of the same population to evaluate population estimates obtained from the model, and show that it is successful at correcting for different types of observation error. Based on our model results, we suggest that allocating resources to the collection of supplementary mark–recapture data could improve the reliability of population projections more than making regular population censuses as exhaustive as possible. Our work demonstrates how integrated Bayesian population modeling can be used to increase the amount of information extracted from collections of data, identifying and disentangling sources of variation in individual performance and population size. This represents an important step towards increasing the predictive ability of population growth models for long‐lived species experiencing changes in environmental conditions and harvesting regimes.     

Fecundity selection theory: concepts and evidence

Fitness results from an optimal balance between survival, mating success and fecundity. The interactions between these three components of fitness vary depending on the selective context, from positive covariation between them, to antagonistic pleiotropic relationships when fitness increases in one reduce the fitness of others. Therefore, elucidating the routes through which selection shapes life history and phenotypic adaptations via these fitness components is of primary significance to understanding ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, while the fitness components mediated by natural (survival) and sexual (mating success) selection have been debated extensively from most possible perspectives, fecundity selection remains considerably less studied. Here, we review the theoretical basis, evidence and implications of fecundity selection as a driver of sex‐specific adaptive evolution. Based on accumulating literature on the life‐history, phenotypic and ecological aspects of fecundity, we (i) suggest a re‐arrangement of the concepts of fecundity, whereby we coin the term ‘transient fecundity’ to refer to brood size per reproductive episode, while ‘annual’ and ‘lifetime fecundity’ should not be used interchangeably with ‘transient fecundity’ as they represent different life‐history parameters; (ii) provide a generalized re‐definition of the concept of fecundity selection as a mechanism that encompasses any traits that influence fecundity in any direction (from high to low) and in either sex; (iii) review the (macro)ecological basis of fecundity selection (e.g. ecological pressures that influence predictable spatial variation in fecundity); (iv) suggest that most ecological theories of fecundity selection should be tested in organisms other than birds; (v) argue that the longstanding fecundity selection hypothesis of female‐biased sexual size dimorphism (SSD) has gained inconsistent support, that strong fecundity selection does not necessarily drive female‐biased SSD, and that this form of SSD can be driven by other selective pressures; and (vi) discuss cases in which fecundity selection operates on males. This conceptual analysis of the theory of fecundity selection promises to help illuminate one of the central components of fitness and its contribution to adaptive evolution.