Disturbance-Mediated Apparent Competition Decouples in a Northern Boreal Caribou Range

The most widely reported threat to boreal and mountain populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou; caribou) involves habitat- or disturbance-mediated apparent competition (DMAC). With DMAC, natural and anthropogenic disturbances that increase the abundance of deciduous-browsing cervids (e.g., moose [Alces alces], deer [Odocoileus spp.]) are thought to promote predator (especially wolf [Canis lupus]) numbers, which heightens predation risk to caribou. We know most about the effects of DMAC on caribou where the species is under threat by anthropogenic activities in relatively productive southern boreal and mountain systems. Yet, >60% of extant boreal caribou range in North America consists of northern shield and taiga ecoregions of low productivity where caribou may compete with only 1 ungulate species (moose) in the context of DMAC. In this environment, we know very little of how DMAC acts as a limiting factor to caribou. In Saskatchewan, Canada, from 2014–2018, using a combination of vegetation sampling, aerial surveys, and telemetry data (n = 38 wolves), we searched for evidence of DMAC (trends in data consistent with the hypothesis) in an 87,193-km² section of the Western Boreal Shield, a poorly productive but pristine region (0.18% of land cover classed as an anthropogenic feature) with a historically high fire-return interval (47% of stands aged <40 years). Despite the high levels of disturbance, moose density was relatively low (47 moose/1,000 km²), likely because of the scarcity of deciduous or mixed-wood stands and low abundance of deciduous browse in the young conifer stands that dominated the landscape. In contrast, boreal caribou density was relatively high for the species (37 caribou/1,000 km²). Wolf density (3.1 wolves/1,000 km²) and pack sizes ( = 4.0 wolves/pack) were low and resident (established) territories were large ( = 4,360 km²; 100% minimum convex polygon). The low density of wolves mirrored the low (standardized) ungulate biomass index (UBI; moose + boreal caribou) of the study area (0.36 UBI/km²). We conclude that wolf and hence caribou populations were not responding in accordance with the outcomes generally predicted by DMAC in our study area because the requisite strong, positive response to fire of deciduous-browse and alternate-prey abundance was lacking. As a limiting factor to caribou, DMAC is likely modulated at a macroecological scale by factors such as net primary productivity, a corollary to the general hypothesis that we advance here (i.e., primary productivity hypothesis of DMAC). We caution against managing for caribou based on the presumption of DMAC where the mechanism does not apply, which may include much of boreal caribou range in the north. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Invading white-tailed deer change wolf–caribou dynamics in northeastern Alberta

Human-caused habitat change has been implicated in current woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) population declines across North America. Increased early seral habitat associated with industrial footprint can result in an increase in ungulate densities and subsequently those of their predator, wolves (Canis lupus). Higher wolf densities can result in increased encounters between wolves and caribou and consequently higher caribou mortality. We contrasted changes in moose (Alces alces) and deer (Odocoileus spp.) densities and assessed their effects on wolf–caribou dynamics in northeastern Alberta, Canada, pre (1994–1997) versus post (2005–2009) major industrial expansion in the region. Observable white-tailed deer (O. virginianus) increased 17.5-fold but moose remained unchanged. Wolf numbers also increased from approximately 6–11.5/1,000 km². Coincident with these changes, spatial overlap between wolf pack territories and caribou range was high relative to the mid-1990s. The high number of wolf locations in caribou range suggests that forays were not merely exploratory, but rather represented hunting forays and denning locations. Scat analysis indicated that wolf consumption of moose declined substantively during this time period, whereas use of deer increased markedly and deer replaced moose as the primary prey of wolves. Caribou increased 10-fold in the diet of wolves and caribou population trends in the region changed from stable to declining. Wolf use of beaver (Castor canadensis) increased since the mid-1990s. We suggest that recent declines in woodland caribou populations in the southerly extent of their range have occurred because high deer densities resulted in a numeric response by wolves and consequently higher incidental predation on caribou. Our results indicate that management actions to conserve caribou must now include deer in primary prey and wolf reduction programs. © 2010 The Wildlife Society     

A spatial theory for characterizing predator–multiprey interactions in heterogeneous landscapes

Trophic interactions in multiprey systems can be largely determined by prey distributions. Yet, classic predator–prey models assume spatially homogeneous interactions between predators and prey. We developed a spatially informed theory that predicts how habitat heterogeneity alters the landscape-scale distribution of mortality risk of prey from predation, and hence the nature of predator interactions in multiprey systems. The theoretical model is a spatially explicit, multiprey functional response in which species-specific advection–diffusion models account for the response of individual prey to habitat edges. The model demonstrates that distinct responses of alternative prey species can alter the consequences of conspecific aggregation, from increasing safety to increasing predation risk. Observations of threatened boreal caribou, moose and grey wolf interacting over 378 181 km² of human-managed boreal forest support this principle. This empirically supported theory demonstrates how distinct responses of apparent competitors to landscape heterogeneity, including to human disturbances, can reverse density dependence in fitness correlates.     

End of the road: Short-term responses of a large mammal community to forest road decommissioning

Anthropogenic disturbances are increasing worldwide, causing wildlife habitat loss, alteration, and fragmentation. In Canada, the decommissioning of linear anthropogenic structures is identified as a promising tool to restore the habitat of threatened populations of boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) by reducing food availability for alternate prey and decreasing encounter probabilities with predators. In this study, we monitored the use of 40 km of decommissioned forest roads by caribou, gray wolves (Canis lupus), black bears (Ursus americanus), and moose (Alces americanus) 1–3 years after reclamation, using 232 motion-activated camera traps. We compared four additive treatments (meaning that each successive treatment included the treatment prior): closing the road to human access, decompacting its soil, planting black spruce (Picea mariana) trees, and adding enriched soil. We assessed the influence of treatments, use by other large mammals, and characteristics of the surrounding environment on road use by the four species. Caribou used the planted treatment (which also included closing and decompacting) more than the closed-only (reference) treatment, but treatments did not influence the use of decommissioned roads by bears and moose. We could not assess the use of treated roads by wolves because of low sample size. Road use by caribou declined with local moose density, but increased with local bear density. Caribou were observed more frequently on roads surrounded by regenerating and mature coniferous stands; caribou also preferentially used roads surrounded by wetlands. Our results suggest that the treatment combining road closure, soil decompaction, and tree planting could be beneficial to caribou, highlighting the relevance of including active restoration efforts in caribou conservation programs. We recommend that such a treatment be added to road decommissioning protocols for the conservation of caribou, alongside broad-scale habitat protection.     

Density-dependent habitat selection and partitioning between two sympatric ungulates

Theory on density-dependent habitat selection predicts that as population density of a species increases, use of higher quality (primary) habitat by individuals declines while use of lower quality (secondary) habitat rises. Habitat partitioning is often considered the primary mechanism for coexistence between similar species, but how this process evolves with changes in population density remains to be empirically tested for free-ranging ungulates. We used resource-selection functions to quantify density effects on landscape-scale habitat selection of two sympatric species of ungulates [moose (Alces alces) and elk (Cervus canadensis manitobensis)] in Riding Mountain National Park, Manitoba, Canada (2000–2011). The density of elk was actively reduced from 1.2 to 0.4 elk km^?2 through increased hunting effort during the period of study, while moose density decreased without additional human influence from 1.6–0.7 moose km^?2. Patterns of habitat selection during winter by both species changed in accordance to expectations from density-dependent habitat-selection theory. At low intraspecific density, moose and elk did not partition habitat, as both species selected strongly for mixed forest (primary habitat providing both food and cover), but did so in different areas segregated across an elevational gradient. As intraspecific density increased, selection for primary habitat by both species decreased, while selection for secondary, lower quality habitat such as agricultural fields (for elk) and built-up areas (for moose) increased. We show that habitat-selection strategies during winter for moose and elk, and subsequent effects on habitat partitioning, depend heavily on the position in state space (density) of both species.     

Boreal forest titans do not clash: low overlap in winter habitat selection by moose (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Alces americanus</Emphasis>) and reintroduced bison (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Bison bison</Emphasis>)

Despite moose (Alces americanus) likely being both an ecological and cultural keystone species in the North American boreal forest, few studies have examined niche overlap between moose and other ungulates. In response to concerns from local people about the potential for competition for habitat between moose and reintroduced bison (Bison bison), and the potential for disturbance to moose by bison and bison hunters, we investigated overlap in winter habitat selection by these species in southwestern Yukon, Canada. We used available geo-referenced data of animal locations, and associated environmental covariates, to develop resource selection probability function (RSPF) models of early-winter and late-winter habitat selection by moose and bison. In early-winter, moose selected sub-alpine shrub-dominated habitats, whereas bison extensively selected wet sedge meadows in lowland valleys. Both species used a greater variety of habitats in late-winter, with moose selecting drainages above tree line or river valleys with deciduous forest cover, while bison selected either south-facing grassy slopes or wet sedge meadows. Given observed differences in seasonal habitat selection between moose and bison, these species are predicted to overlap on only 0.5 and 6.6% of our 12,818-km² study area during early-winter and late-winter, respectively. The lack of demonstrated winter habitat overlap between moose and reintroduced bison, coupled with low diet overlap, points to an overall low potential for competition for winter habitat between these species, or for disturbance to moose attributable to bison or bison hunters. Resource partitioning that facilitates coexistence on a shared landscape suggests that concern over the impact of reintroduced bison on resident populations of moose is likely unwarranted.     

Response of Moose Hunters to Predation following Wolf Return in Sweden

Background

Predation and hunter harvest constitute the main mortality factors affecting the size and dynamics of many exploited populations. The re-colonization by wolves (Canis lupus) of the Scandinavian Peninsula may therefore substantially reduce hunter harvest of moose (Alces alces), the main prey of wolves.

Methodology/Principal findings

We examined possible effects of wolf presence on hunter harvest in areas where we had data before and after wolf establishment (n = 25), and in additional areas that had been continuously exposed to wolf predation during at least ten years (n = 43). There was a general reduction in the total number of moose harvested (n = 31,827) during the ten year study period in all areas irrespective of presence of wolves or not. However, the reduction in hunter harvest was stronger within wolf territories compared to control areas without wolves. The reduction in harvest was larger in small (500-800 km²) compared to large (1,200-1,800 km²) wolf territories. In areas with newly established wolf territories moose management appeared to be adaptive with regard to both managers (hunting quotas) and to hunters (actual harvest). In these areas an instant reduction in moose harvest over-compensated the estimated number of moose killed annually by wolves and the composition of the hunted animals changed towards a lower proportion of adult females.

Conclusions/Significance

We show that the re-colonization of wolves may result in an almost instant functional response by another large predator—humans—that reduced the potential for a direct numerical effect on the density of wolves’ main prey, the moose. Because most of the worlds’ habitat that will be available for future colonization by large predators are likely to be strongly influenced by humans, human behavioural responses may constitute a key trait that govern the impact of large predators on their prey.     

Moose-wolf dynamics and the natural regulation of moose populations

Summary In southwestern Québec, non-harvested moose populations stabilize at a density of 0.40 animal·km^-2. In an attempt to test whether or not moose were regulated by predators, we investigated wolf predation near this equilibrium density (0.37) and at 2 lower densities (0.23, 0.17). Scat analysis in summer and feeding observations in winter indicated a greater use of alternative food resources by wolves at lower moose densities. Each wolf pack killed on average 5.3, 1.8, 1.1 moose·100 days in the area of 0.37, 0.23, and 0.17 moose·km^-2, respectively. Consumption of moose per wolf was 2.8, 1.7, and 1.6 kg/day, respectively. January wolf densities were estimated at 1.38, 0.82, and 0.36 animals·100 km^-2, respectively. Year-long predation rates proved to be density-dependent, increasing with moose density from 6.1 to 19.3% of the postnatal populations. We conclude that moose populations in southwestern Québec are regulated largely by predators (wolves and maybe black bears) at a density where competition for forage produces no detrimental effect. We support the concept that wolf predation can have an important regulatory effect at low moose densities but also a depensatory (inversely density-dependent) effect at higher densities.     

Resource separation analysis with moose indicates threats to caribou in human altered landscapes

Species recovery is often impeded by inadequate knowledge on mechanisms of community interactions that cause and exacerbate species endangerment. Caribou and wild reindeer Rangifer tarandus are declining in many regions of their circumpolar range likely because of human‐induced landscape changes. In general, their niche specialization enables Rangifer to survive in nutrient‐poor habitats spatially separated from other ungulates and their shared predators. Research has indicated that shifts in primary prey distribution following human landscape alteration may result in spatial overlap with Rangifer. We studied overlap relationships of woodland caribou R. t. caribou and moose Alces alces, quantified by their differential use of environmental resources, and evaluated the role of human landscape alteration in spatial separation in south‐western Canada. Anthropogenic conversion of old‐growth forests to early seral stands is hypothesized to decrease the spatial separation between caribou and moose, the dominant prey for wolves Canis lupus, contributing to increased caribou mortality. Redundancy analysis (RDA) was first used to examine coarse scale resource separation across our study area. Second, at a finer spatial scale, we used logistic regression to compare resource‐ and spatial separation of sympatric pairs of 17 moose and 17 caribou. Finally, we tested if the frequency of predator‐caused caribou mortalities was higher in regions with higher moose resource use. Although environmental resource separation was strong at the coarser scale, we observed substantial spatial overlap (>50%) at the finer scale. In summer we reported a significant positive relationship between spatial overlap of moose and caribou and the degree of human landscape alteration. Most importantly, locations of caribou mortalities corresponded with areas of high resource use by moose in summer. Thus, consistent with the spatial separation hypothesis, our research suggests that early successional forest stages may decrease spatial separation between caribou and moose, resulting in increased mortality risk for threatened caribou.     

Range Expansion of Moose in Arctic Alaska Linked to Warming and Increased Shrub Habitat

Twentieth century warming has increased vegetation productivity and shrub cover across northern tundra and treeline regions, but effects on terrestrial wildlife have not been demonstrated on a comparable scale. During this period, Alaskan moose (Alces alces gigas) extended their range from the boreal forest into tundra riparian shrub habitat; similar extensions have been observed in Canada (A. a. andersoni) and Eurasia (A. a. alces). Northern moose distribution is thought to be limited by forage availability above the snow in late winter, so the observed increase in shrub habitat could be causing the northward moose establishment, but a previous hypothesis suggested that hunting cessation triggered moose establishment. Here, we use recent changes in shrub cover and empirical relationships between shrub height and growing season temperature to estimate available moose habitat in Arctic Alaska c. 1860. We estimate that riparian shrubs were approximately 1.1 m tall c. 1860, greatly reducing the available forage above the snowpack, compared to 2 m tall in 2009. We believe that increases in riparian shrub habitat after 1860 allowed moose to colonize tundra regions of Alaska hundreds of kilometers north and west of previous distribution limits. The northern shift in the distribution of moose, like that of snowshoe hares, has been in response to the spread of their shrub habitat in the Arctic, but at the same time, herbivores have likely had pronounced impacts on the structure and function of these shrub communities. These northward range shifts are a bellwether for other boreal species and their associated predators.     

Moose density and habitat productivity affects reproduction,growth and species composition in field layer vegetation

Question: What is the effect of a gradient in moose density on reproduction, growth and functional composition of the field layer vegetation in a boreal forest, and how is this effect modified by habitat productivity? Location: Northwest of Umeå, Västerbotten, northern Sweden. Methods: Field layer vegetation was surveyed in an experimental setup with simulation of three different moose densities and a control in eight study sites along a gradient of habitat productivity. Results: We found that increased moose density led to decreased cover and reproductive effort of a browsed dwarf shrub (bilberry, Vaccinium myrtillus L.) and increased cover and reproductive effort of a non‐browsed graminoid (wavy hair‐grass, Avenella flexuosa (L.) Drejer). Increased moose density led to increased light availability and probably reduced competition from V. myrtillus. Total reproductive effort in the field layer vegetation increased, height decreased and cover of light‐demanding species and graminoids increased with increasing moose density. The effects of moose density were modified by the productivity gradient, leading to a higher relative increase in light availability and reproductive effort in highly productive areas than in low productive areas. Conclusions: Increased light availability was an important indirect effect of moose density, leading to less competition for light and a shift towards early successional species. The effect of moose density on light availability was modified by habitat productivity, leading to stronger relative effects in highly productive areas than in low productive areas.     

Home range size variation in a recovering wolf population: evaluating the effect of environmental, demographic, and social factors

Home range size in mammals is a key ecological trait and an important parameter in conservation planning, and has been shown to be influenced by ecological, demographic and social factors in animal populations. Information on space requirements is especially important for carnivore species which range over very large areas and often come into direct conflict with human interest. We used long-term telemetry-location data from a recovering wolf population in Scandinavia to investigate variation in home range size in relation to environmental and social characteristics of the different packs. Wolves showed considerable variation in home range size, which ranged from 259 to 1,676 km². Although wolf density increased fourfold during the study period, we found no evidence that intraspecific competition influenced range size. Local variation in moose density, which was the main prey for most packs, did not influence wolf home range size. Home ranges increased with latitude and elevation and decreased with increased roe deer density. Although prey biomass alone did not influence range size, our data suggest that there is a correlation between habitat characteristics, choice of prey species and possible hunting success, which currently combine to shape home range size in Scandinavian wolves.     

Habitat use,density, and conservation status of the white-browed guan (Penelope jacucaca Spix, 1825)

The white-browed guan (Cracidae: Penelope jacucaca) is an endemic bird species to the Caatinga, the largest centre of dry forest in South America. This taxon was considered Vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) due to continued habitat loss within its distribution and intense hunting pressure that contributed to population declines. However, information on population aspects and habitat use by P. jacucaca, which is fundamental for monitoring its conservation status, is not available. We studied habitat use (analysed in a Generalized Linear Model) and population density (estimated by distance sampling) in a specific area in Northeast Brazil. Using species distribution modelling (SDM), forest cover loss data (performed in the MaxEnt program) and quantitative information about hunting, more rigorous estimates of the distribution limits, available habitat, and population declines of P. jacucaca were generated. Based on the IUCN criteria, we applied analysed data to reassess the conservation status of the white-browed guan. Local density was estimated at 13.1 individuals/km² and the estimated number of individuals removed per year due to hunting was 121.7 in the forest cover area (110.46 km²) of the Serra de Santa Catarina. Consequently, the annual removal rate of hunted individuals in the study area corresponds to approximately 11% of the population. The habitat use analysis pointed to a strong positive association with seasonally dry deciduous forest (SDDF) vegetation and with arboreal vegetation. The SDM indicated a potential distribution (climatically favourable) area of 675,823 km², and forest cover and loss calculations indicated a total of 81,307 km² of available suitable habitat in 2013. Therefore, comparing these results to the IUCN criteria, we recommend that P. jacucaca remain in the Vulnerable category.     

The influence of landscape matrix on isolated patch use by wide‐ranging animals: conservation lessons for woodland caribou

For conservation purposes, it is important to design studies that explicitly quantify responses of focal species to different land management scenarios. Here, we propose an approach that combines the influence of landscape matrices with the intrinsic attributes of remaining habitat patches on the space use behavior of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), a threatened subspecies of Rangifer. We sought to link characteristics of forest remnants and their surrounding environment to caribou use (i.e., occurrence and intensity). We tracked 51 females using GPS telemetry north of the Saguenay River (Québec, Canada) between 2004 and 2010 and documented their use of mature forest remnants ranging between 30 and ~170 000 ha in a highly managed landscape. Habitat proportion and anthropogenic feature density within incremental buffer zones (from 100 to 7500 m), together with intrinsic residual forest patch characteristics, were linked to caribou GPS location occurrence and density to establish the range of influence of the surrounding matrix. We found that patch size and composition influence caribou occurrence and intensity of use within a patch. Patch size had to reach approximately 270 km² to attain 75% probability of use by caribou. We found that small patches (<100 km²) induced concentration of caribou activities that were shown to make them more vulnerable to predation and to act as ecological traps. Woodland caribou clearly need large residual forest patches, embedded in a relatively undisturbed matrix, to achieve low densities as an antipredator strategy. Our patch‐based methodological approach, using GPS telemetry data, offers a new perspective of space use behavior of wide‐ranging species inhabiting fragmented landscapes and allows us to highlight the impacts of large scale management. Furthermore, our study provides insights that might have important implications for effective caribou conservation and forest management.     

Conservation of wildlife populations: factoring in incremental disturbance

Progressive anthropogenic disturbance can alter ecosystem organization potentially causing shifts from one stable state to another. This potential for ecosystem shifts must be considered when establishing targets and objectives for conservation. We ask whether a predator–prey system response to incremental anthropogenic disturbance might shift along a disturbance gradient and, if it does, whether any disturbance thresholds are evident for this system. Development of linear corridors in forested areas increases wolf predation effectiveness, while high density of development provides a safe‐haven for their prey. If wolves limit moose population growth, then wolves and moose should respond inversely to land cover disturbance. Using general linear model analysis, we test how the rate of change in moose (Alces alces) density and wolf (Canis lupus) harvest density are influenced by the rate of change in land cover and proportion of land cover disturbed within a 300,000 km² area in the boreal forest of Alberta, Canada. Using logistic regression, we test how the direction of change in moose density is influenced by measures of land cover change. In response to incremental land cover disturbance, moose declines occurred where <43% of land cover was disturbed; in such landscapes, there were high rates of increase in linear disturbance and wolf density increased. By contrast, moose increases occurred where >43% of land cover was disturbed and wolf density declined. Wolves and moose appeared to respond inversely to incremental disturbance with the balance between moose decline and wolf increase shifting at about 43% of land cover disturbed. Conservation decisions require quantification of disturbance rates and their relationships to predator–prey systems because ecosystem responses to anthropogenic disturbance shift across disturbance gradients.     

European Bison as a Refugee Species? Evidence from Isotopic Data on Early Holocene Bison and Other Large Herbivores in Northern Europe

According to the refugee species concept, increasing replacement of open steppe by forest cover after the last glacial period and human pressure had together forced European bison (Bison bonasus)—the largest extant terrestrial mammal of Europe—into forests as a refuge habitat. The consequent decreased fitness and population density led to the gradual extinction of the species. Understanding the pre-refugee ecology of the species may help its conservation management and ensure its long time survival. In view of this, we investigated the abundance of stable isotopes (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) in radiocarbon dated skeletal remains of European bison and other large herbivores—aurochs (Bos primigenius), moose (Alces alces), and reindeer (Rangifer tarandus)—from the Early Holocene of northern Europe to reconstruct their dietary habits and pattern of habitat use in conditions of low human influence. Carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions in collagen of the ungulate species in northern central Europe during the Early Holocene showed significant differences in the habitat use and the diet of these herbivores. The values of the δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N isotopes reflected the use of open habitats by bison, with their diet intermediate between that of aurochs (grazer) and of moose (browser). Our results show that, despite the partial overlap in carbon and nitrogen isotopic values of some species, Early Holocene large ungulates avoided competition by selection of different habitats or different food sources within similar environments. Although Early Holocene bison and Late Pleistocene steppe bison utilized open habitats, their diets were significantly different, as reflected by their δ¹⁵N values. Additional isotopic analyses show that modern populations of European bison utilize much more forested habitats than Early Holocene bison, which supports the refugee status of the species.     

Habitat use of the endangered golden‐rumped sengi Rhynchocyon chrysopygus

The endangered golden‐rumped sengi are found only in Arabuko‐Sokoke Forest with 395.4 km² of forest habitat, and perhaps in a few isolated forest and thicket fragments of total area less than 30 km² all within central coastal Kenya. Understanding its habitat use is an important requirement to develop better conservation measures for the species and its remaining forest habitat. A more reliable method for monitoring its status is also needed. We used the Bayesian occupancy modelling with camera trap data and habitat mapping to characterise the species habitat use in the Arabuko‐Sokoke Forest. The species uses 328 km² (95% CI: 289–364 km²) of Arabuko‐Sokoke Forest habitat, and its site use increases with distance from forest edge, with the highest site use in the Cynometra thicket (0.93; 95% CI: 0.82–1). Its use of the mixed forest habitat has been significantly reduced following years of logging of Afzelia quanzensis. We recommend the use of modelled occupancy, interpreted as the proportion of area used by the species, to monitor the species status. Occupancy models account for detection probability, and heterogeneity in site use and detection can be incorporated. Estimated territory sizes can be combined to obtain abundance estimates.     

Moose (Alces alces) calf survival rates in the presence of wolves (Canis lupus) in southeast Norway

Wolves (Canis lupus) are recolonizing Scandinavia and becoming a new limiting factor that should be taken into account in the management of moose (Alces alces). However, there is a lack of empirical estimates of moose survival after wolf recolonization. We investigated the effects of wolf abundance, moose litter size (single/twin calves), and climatic factors on annual and seasonal calf survival rates in a moose population in southeast Norway. We used data that were obtained over 7?years by radio-tracking and regular visual observations of 68 moose cows to determine the presence or absence of calves at heel. Annual and winter calf survival rates were 20–40 percentage points lower in the wolf territory compared with previous estimates of moose calf survival in similar areas that lacked wolves. Cause-specific studies of mortality would further enhance our ability to determine the relative role of various limiting factors. Our study suggests that moose managers should regulate quotas to buffer the lower survival rates after wolf recolonization.     

Testing the risk of predation hypothesis: the influence of recolonizing wolves on habitat use by moose

Considered as absent throughout Scandinavia for >100 years, wolves (Canis lupus) have recently naturally recolonized south-central Sweden. This recolonization has provided an opportunity to study behavioral responses of moose (Alces alces) to wolves. We used satellite telemetry locations from collared moose and wolves to determine whether moose habitat use was affected by predation risk based on wolf use distributions. Moose habitat use was influenced by reproductive status and time of day and showed a different selection pattern between winter and summer, but there was weak evidence that moose habitat use depended on predation risk. The seemingly weak response may have several underlying explanations that are not mutually exclusive from the long term absence of non-human predation pressure: intensive harvest by humans during the last century is more important than wolf predation as an influence on moose behavior; moose have not adapted to recolonizing wolves; and responses may include other behavioral adaptations or occur at finer temporal and spatial levels than investigated.     

Modeling Cumulative Effects of Climate and Development on Moose,Wolf, and Caribou Populations

Wildlife models focused solely on a single strong influence (e.g., habitat components, wildlife harvest) are limited in their ability to detect key mechanisms influencing population change. Instead, we propose integrated modeling in the context of cumulative effects assessment using multispecies population dynamics models linked to landscape-climate simulation at large spatial and temporal scales. We developed an integrated landscape and population simulation model using ALCES Online as the model-building platform, and the model accounted for key ecological components and relationships among moose (Alces alces), grey wolves (Canis lupus nubilus), and woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in northern Ontario, Canada. We simulated multiple scenarios over 5 decades (beginning 2020) to explore sensitivity to climate change and land use and assessed effects at multiple scales. The magnitude of effect and the relative importance of key factors (climate change, roads, and habitat) differed depending on the scale of assessment. Across the full extent of the study area (654,311km² [ecozonal scale]), the caribou population declined by 26% largely because of climate change and associated predator-prey response, which led to caribou range recession in the southern part of the study area. At the caribou range scale (108,378 km²), which focused on 2 herds in the northern part of the study area, climate change led to a 10% decline in the population and development led to an additional 7% decline. At the project scale (8,331 km²), which was focused more narrowly on the landscape surrounding 4 proposed mines, the caribou population declined by 29% largely in response to simulated development. Given that observed caribou population dynamics were sensitive to the cumulative effects of climate change, land use, interspecific interactions, and scale, insights from the analysis might not emerge under a less complex model. Our integrated modeling framework provides valuable support for broader regional assessments, including estimation of risk to caribou and Indigenous food security, and for developing and evaluating potential caribou recovery strategies. © 2021 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.