Body condition and population regulation by food resources in moose

Summary In southwestern Québec, non-harvested moose populations stabilize at a density of 0.40 animal·km^-2. In an attempt to test population regulation by food resources, we investigated moose body condition near this equilibrium density (0.37) and at 2 lower densities (0.22 and 0.17). Annual population growth rates were evaluated at 4, 18, and 24% respectively. We predicted that moose in the high density area would exhibit growth retardation and poorer body condition, compared to moose in the lower density areas. Measurements of head length, cranial breadth, heart weight, and kidney weight were collected from 443 moose killed during the regular autumn harvesting seasons of 1981 and 1982. There was no indication that body condition was poorer at high moose density, and hence no evidence that foraging conditions were deteriorated. We concluded that food limitation was not sufficient to explain the differences in population growth rates. Predation by wolves and/or black bears is presented as an alternative and testable hypothesis.     

Response of Moose Hunters to Predation following Wolf Return in Sweden

Background

Predation and hunter harvest constitute the main mortality factors affecting the size and dynamics of many exploited populations. The re-colonization by wolves (Canis lupus) of the Scandinavian Peninsula may therefore substantially reduce hunter harvest of moose (Alces alces), the main prey of wolves.

Methodology/Principal findings

We examined possible effects of wolf presence on hunter harvest in areas where we had data before and after wolf establishment (n = 25), and in additional areas that had been continuously exposed to wolf predation during at least ten years (n = 43). There was a general reduction in the total number of moose harvested (n = 31,827) during the ten year study period in all areas irrespective of presence of wolves or not. However, the reduction in hunter harvest was stronger within wolf territories compared to control areas without wolves. The reduction in harvest was larger in small (500-800 km²) compared to large (1,200-1,800 km²) wolf territories. In areas with newly established wolf territories moose management appeared to be adaptive with regard to both managers (hunting quotas) and to hunters (actual harvest). In these areas an instant reduction in moose harvest over-compensated the estimated number of moose killed annually by wolves and the composition of the hunted animals changed towards a lower proportion of adult females.

Conclusions/Significance

We show that the re-colonization of wolves may result in an almost instant functional response by another large predator—humans—that reduced the potential for a direct numerical effect on the density of wolves’ main prey, the moose. Because most of the worlds’ habitat that will be available for future colonization by large predators are likely to be strongly influenced by humans, human behavioural responses may constitute a key trait that govern the impact of large predators on their prey.     

Managing for Elevated Yield of Moose in Interior Alaska

ABSTRACT Given recent actions to increase sustained yield of moose (Alces alces) in Alaska, USA, we examined factors affecting yield and moose demographics and discussed related management. Prior studies concluded that yield and density of moose remain low in much of Interior Alaska and Yukon, Canada, despite high moose reproductive rates, because of predation from lightly harvested grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) and wolf (Canis lupus) populations. Our study area, Game Management Unit (GMU) 20A, was also in Interior Alaska, but we describe elevated yield and density of moose. Prior to our study, a wolf control program (1976–1982) helped reverse a decline in the moose population. Subsequent to 1975, moose numbers continued a 28-year, 7-fold increase through the initial 8 years of our study (λ_B1 = 1.05 during 1996–2004, peak density = 1,299 moose/1,000 km²). During these initial 8 hunting seasons, reported harvest was composed primarily of males ( = 88%). Total harvest averaged 5% of the prehunt population and 57 moose/1,000 km², the highest sustained harvest-density recorded in Interior Alaska for similar-sized areas. In contrast, sustained total harvests of <10 moose/1,000 km² existed among low-density, predator-limited moose populations in Interior Alaska (≤417 moose/1,000 km²). During the final 3 years of our study (2004–2006), moose numbers declined (λ_B2 = 0.96) as intended using liberal harvests of female and male moose ( = 47%) that averaged 7% of the prehunt population and 97 moose/1,000 km². We intentionally reduced high densities in the central half of GMU 20A (up to 1,741 moose/1,000 km² in Nov) because moose were reproducing at the lowest rate measured among wild, noninsular North American populations. Calf survival was uniquely high in GMU 20A compared with 7 similar radiocollaring studies in Alaska and Yukon. Low predation was the proximate factor that allowed moose in GMU 20A to increase in density and sustain elevated yields. Bears killed only 9% of the modeled postcalving moose population annually in GMU 20A during 1996–2004, in contrast to 18–27% in 3 studies of low-density moose populations. Thus, outside GMU 20A, higher bear predation rates can create challenges for those desiring rapid increases in sustained yield of moose. Wolves killed 8–15% of the 4 postcalving moose populations annually (10% in GMU 20A), hunters killed 2–6%, and other factors killed 1–6%. Annually during the increase phase in GMU 20A, calf moose constituted 75% of the predator-killed moose and predators killed 4 times more moose than hunters killed. Wolf predation on calves remained largely additive at the high moose densities studied in GMU 20A. Sustainable harvest-densities of moose can be increased several-fold in most areas of Interior Alaska where moose density and moose: predator ratios are lower than in GMU 20A and nutritional status is higher. Steps include 1) reducing predation sufficient to allow the moose population to grow, and 2) initiating harvest of female moose to halt population growth and maximize harvest after density-dependent moose nutritional indices reach or approach the thresholds we previously published.     

The distribution of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Echinococcus granulosus</Emphasis> in moose: evidence for parasite-induced vulnerability to predation by wolves?

The role of parasites in influencing the trophic dynamics of hosts is becoming increasingly recognized in the ecological literature. Echinococcus granulosus is a tapeworm that relies on the predator-prey relationship between the definitive host (wolf, Canis lupus) and the intermediate host, (moose, Alces alces) to complete its life cycle. Heavy infection by E. granulosus may predispose moose to increased risk of predation by wolves. Theory predicts that parasite-induced vulnerability to predation will reduce the degree of aggregation of parasites in a host population. We tested for different levels of aggregation of E. granulosus in moose in areas of low, moderate, and high levels of wolf predation using Greens coefficient of dispersion. Parasite aggregation was lower in an area with high predation rate, thus we hypothesize that heavy infection by E. granulosus predisposes moose to predation by wolves. This increase in predation rate due to parasite infection may influence the role of wolves in regulating moose populations. We discuss alternative explanations for the negative correlation between predation rate and parasite aggregation.An erratum to this article can be found at     

Invading white-tailed deer change wolf–caribou dynamics in northeastern Alberta

Human-caused habitat change has been implicated in current woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) population declines across North America. Increased early seral habitat associated with industrial footprint can result in an increase in ungulate densities and subsequently those of their predator, wolves (Canis lupus). Higher wolf densities can result in increased encounters between wolves and caribou and consequently higher caribou mortality. We contrasted changes in moose (Alces alces) and deer (Odocoileus spp.) densities and assessed their effects on wolf–caribou dynamics in northeastern Alberta, Canada, pre (1994–1997) versus post (2005–2009) major industrial expansion in the region. Observable white-tailed deer (O. virginianus) increased 17.5-fold but moose remained unchanged. Wolf numbers also increased from approximately 6–11.5/1,000 km². Coincident with these changes, spatial overlap between wolf pack territories and caribou range was high relative to the mid-1990s. The high number of wolf locations in caribou range suggests that forays were not merely exploratory, but rather represented hunting forays and denning locations. Scat analysis indicated that wolf consumption of moose declined substantively during this time period, whereas use of deer increased markedly and deer replaced moose as the primary prey of wolves. Caribou increased 10-fold in the diet of wolves and caribou population trends in the region changed from stable to declining. Wolf use of beaver (Castor canadensis) increased since the mid-1990s. We suggest that recent declines in woodland caribou populations in the southerly extent of their range have occurred because high deer densities resulted in a numeric response by wolves and consequently higher incidental predation on caribou. Our results indicate that management actions to conserve caribou must now include deer in primary prey and wolf reduction programs. © 2010 The Wildlife Society     

Natural regulation of cervidae along a 1000 km latitudinal gradient: Change in trophic dominance

Summary The biomass of forage, herbivores (caribou and moose) and predators (wolf) were estimated for four assemblages of large mammals along a latitudinal gradient in the Québec-Labrador peninsula and related to predictions made by two types of multitrophic level models. Wolves were present in three study areas, but they had been extirpated in the last one. Annual production of preferred forage exhibited a clear north-south increase for moose, but not for caribou. Neither the herbivore nor predator biomass increased along the latitudinal gradient: the highest herbivore biomass occurred in the wolf-free area and in the northernmost site, while the greatest predator density was observed in the southernmost site. Consequently, the ratio of the herbivore to forage biomass was the highest in the area devoid of wolves and in the northernmost site occupied by migratory caribou. Availability of forage per herbivore was the greatest in the moose-wolf and the caribou-moose-wolf assemblages. The observed data supported the multitrophic level model incorporating classical predator-prey relationships and producing stepwise accrual of trophic level biomass with increasing food chain length. In the northernmost site, the system was limited to two functional trophic levels and caribou were regulated by summer forage. Three functional trophic levels appeared to exist in the central study area where caribou and moose were preyed upon by wolves. Both herbivores were at very low density, the first one due probably to its poor adaptation to predation and the second because of an unproductive range. In the southernmost site, moose were clearly regulated by predation and kept much below the carrying capacity. With the extirpation of wolves in the last study area, moose were regulated by forage and the density exceeded that in the moose-wolf system by seven times even in a less productive range. Caribou, having primarily evolved under resource limitation, is replaced by a cervid better adapted to predation, the moose, in more productive three-link ecosystems.     

Conservation of wildlife populations: factoring in incremental disturbance

Progressive anthropogenic disturbance can alter ecosystem organization potentially causing shifts from one stable state to another. This potential for ecosystem shifts must be considered when establishing targets and objectives for conservation. We ask whether a predator–prey system response to incremental anthropogenic disturbance might shift along a disturbance gradient and, if it does, whether any disturbance thresholds are evident for this system. Development of linear corridors in forested areas increases wolf predation effectiveness, while high density of development provides a safe‐haven for their prey. If wolves limit moose population growth, then wolves and moose should respond inversely to land cover disturbance. Using general linear model analysis, we test how the rate of change in moose (Alces alces) density and wolf (Canis lupus) harvest density are influenced by the rate of change in land cover and proportion of land cover disturbed within a 300,000 km² area in the boreal forest of Alberta, Canada. Using logistic regression, we test how the direction of change in moose density is influenced by measures of land cover change. In response to incremental land cover disturbance, moose declines occurred where <43% of land cover was disturbed; in such landscapes, there were high rates of increase in linear disturbance and wolf density increased. By contrast, moose increases occurred where >43% of land cover was disturbed and wolf density declined. Wolves and moose appeared to respond inversely to incremental disturbance with the balance between moose decline and wolf increase shifting at about 43% of land cover disturbed. Conservation decisions require quantification of disturbance rates and their relationships to predator–prey systems because ecosystem responses to anthropogenic disturbance shift across disturbance gradients.     

Encounter frequencies between GPS-collared wolves (Canis lupus) and moose (Alces alces) in a Scandinavian wolf territory

Over 6,000 GPS fixes from two wolves (Canis lupus) and 30,000 GPS fixes from five moose (Alces alces) in a wolf territory in southern Scandinavia were used to assess the static and dynamic interactions between predator and prey individuals. Our results showed that wolves were closer to some of the moose when inside their home ranges than expected if they had moved independently of each other, and we also found a higher number of close encounters (<500 m) than expected. This suggests that the wolves were actively seeking the individual moose within their territory. Furthermore, the wolves showed a preference for moving on gravel forest roads, which may be used as convenient travel routes when patrolling the territory and seeking areas where the moose are. However, due to the particularly large size of the wolf territory combined with relatively high moose densities, the wolves generally spent a very small proportion of their time inside the home range of each individual moose, and the frequency of encounters between the wolves and any particular moose was very low. We suggest that the high moose:wolf ratio in this large Scandinavian wolf territory compared to that typically occurring in North America, results in a relatively low encounter frequency and a low predation risk for individual moose, as the predation pressure is spread over a high number of prey individuals.     

Mobility of moose—comparing the effects of wolf predation risk,reproductive status,and seasonality

In a predator–prey system, prey species may adapt to the presence of predators with behavioral changes such as increased vigilance, shifting habitats, or changes in their mobility. In North America, moose (Alces alces) have shown behavioral adaptations to presence of predators, but such antipredator behavioral responses have not yet been found in Scandinavian moose in response to the recolonization of wolves (Canis lupus). We studied travel speed and direction of movement of GPS‐collared female moose (n = 26) in relation to spatiotemporal differences in wolf predation risk, reproductive status, and time of year. Travel speed was highest during the calving (May–July) and postcalving (August–October) seasons and was lower for females with calves than females without calves. Similarly, time of year and reproductive status affected the direction of movement, as more concentrated movement was observed for females with calves at heel, during the calving season. We did not find support for that wolf predation risk was an important factor affecting moose travel speed or direction of movement. Likely causal factors for the weak effect of wolf predation risk on mobility of moose include high moose‐to‐wolf ratio and intensive hunter harvest of the moose population during the past century.     

The forgotten prey of an iconic predator: a review of interactions between grey wolves Canis lupus and beavers Castor spp.

相似文献   

Testing the risk of predation hypothesis: the influence of recolonizing wolves on habitat use by moose

Considered as absent throughout Scandinavia for >100 years, wolves (Canis lupus) have recently naturally recolonized south-central Sweden. This recolonization has provided an opportunity to study behavioral responses of moose (Alces alces) to wolves. We used satellite telemetry locations from collared moose and wolves to determine whether moose habitat use was affected by predation risk based on wolf use distributions. Moose habitat use was influenced by reproductive status and time of day and showed a different selection pattern between winter and summer, but there was weak evidence that moose habitat use depended on predation risk. The seemingly weak response may have several underlying explanations that are not mutually exclusive from the long term absence of non-human predation pressure: intensive harvest by humans during the last century is more important than wolf predation as an influence on moose behavior; moose have not adapted to recolonizing wolves; and responses may include other behavioral adaptations or occur at finer temporal and spatial levels than investigated.     

Assessing the influence of prey–predator ratio,prey age structure and packs size on wolf kill rates

Traditional predation theory assumes that prey density is the primary determinant of kill rate. More recently, the ratio of prey‐to‐predator has been shown to be a better predictor of kill rate. However, the selective behavior of many predators also suggests that age structure of the prey population should be an important predictor of kill rate. We compared wolf–moose predation dynamics in two sites, south‐central Scandinavia (SCA) and Isle Royale, Lake Superior, North America (IR), where prey density was similar, but where prey age structure and prey‐to‐predator ratio differed. Per capita kill rates of wolves preying on moose in SCA are three times greater than on IR. Because SCA and IR have similar prey densities differences in kill rate cannot be explained by prey density. Instead, differences in kill rate are explained by differences in the ratio of prey‐to‐predator, pack size and age structure of the prey populations. Although ratio‐dependent functional responses was an important variable for explaining differences in kill rates between SCA and IR, kill rates tended to be higher when calves comprised a greater portion of wolves’ diet (p =0.05). Our study is the first to suggest how age structure of the prey population can affect kill rate for a mammalian predator. Differences in age structure of the SCA and IR prey populations are, in large part, the result of moose and forests being exploited in SCA, but not in IR. While predator conservation is largely motivated by restoring trophic cascades and other top–down influences, our results show how human enterprises can also alter predation through bottom–up processes.     

Modeling the Western Arctic Caribou Herd During a Positive Growth Phase: Potential Effects of Wolves and Radiocollars

ABSTRACT Population modeling exercises can lead to both expected and unexpected results useful for wildlife research and management, even though inferences must often be qualitative, given underlying assumptions. Our main objective was to use empirical data on wolf (Canis lupus) kill rates and growth of the Western Arctic caribou (Rangifer tarandus) herd (WAH) of Alaska, USA, to assess the potential for predator regulation. We used available data and published literature to construct a deterministic density-dependent population model fitted to trends of the WAH from 1976 through 2003. By increasing wolf densities in the baseline model, we failed to reject the hypothesis that wolves at a density of 6.5 wolves per 1,000 km² could regulate a caribou herd at a density of 0.4 caribou per km². In addition, our model may be conservative by underestimating the regulatory potential of wolves. We suggest that this relatively simple predator-preysystem shows signs of a predation—food 2-state model. Elasticities from matrix models may be deceiving. Although herd growth is most sensitive to changes in adult female survival, survival of younger cohorts may be more easily influenced by natural conditions or management action. Management of the WAH near maximum sustained yield may not be attainable if desired, but modeling exercises such as this elucidate options. In conducting this research, we also discovered by Monte Carlo simulation that survival and productivity data from radiocollared females and calves were negatively biased and failed to predict herd growth. Thus, researchers should consider potential effects of neck collars on vital rates of female tundra caribou and concomitant offspring when using sample data to model population dynamics or test hypotheses.     

Disturbance-Mediated Apparent Competition Decouples in a Northern Boreal Caribou Range

The most widely reported threat to boreal and mountain populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou; caribou) involves habitat- or disturbance-mediated apparent competition (DMAC). With DMAC, natural and anthropogenic disturbances that increase the abundance of deciduous-browsing cervids (e.g., moose [Alces alces], deer [Odocoileus spp.]) are thought to promote predator (especially wolf [Canis lupus]) numbers, which heightens predation risk to caribou. We know most about the effects of DMAC on caribou where the species is under threat by anthropogenic activities in relatively productive southern boreal and mountain systems. Yet, >60% of extant boreal caribou range in North America consists of northern shield and taiga ecoregions of low productivity where caribou may compete with only 1 ungulate species (moose) in the context of DMAC. In this environment, we know very little of how DMAC acts as a limiting factor to caribou. In Saskatchewan, Canada, from 2014–2018, using a combination of vegetation sampling, aerial surveys, and telemetry data (n = 38 wolves), we searched for evidence of DMAC (trends in data consistent with the hypothesis) in an 87,193-km² section of the Western Boreal Shield, a poorly productive but pristine region (0.18% of land cover classed as an anthropogenic feature) with a historically high fire-return interval (47% of stands aged <40 years). Despite the high levels of disturbance, moose density was relatively low (47 moose/1,000 km²), likely because of the scarcity of deciduous or mixed-wood stands and low abundance of deciduous browse in the young conifer stands that dominated the landscape. In contrast, boreal caribou density was relatively high for the species (37 caribou/1,000 km²). Wolf density (3.1 wolves/1,000 km²) and pack sizes ( = 4.0 wolves/pack) were low and resident (established) territories were large ( = 4,360 km²; 100% minimum convex polygon). The low density of wolves mirrored the low (standardized) ungulate biomass index (UBI; moose + boreal caribou) of the study area (0.36 UBI/km²). We conclude that wolf and hence caribou populations were not responding in accordance with the outcomes generally predicted by DMAC in our study area because the requisite strong, positive response to fire of deciduous-browse and alternate-prey abundance was lacking. As a limiting factor to caribou, DMAC is likely modulated at a macroecological scale by factors such as net primary productivity, a corollary to the general hypothesis that we advance here (i.e., primary productivity hypothesis of DMAC). We caution against managing for caribou based on the presumption of DMAC where the mechanism does not apply, which may include much of boreal caribou range in the north. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Wolf-avoidance strategies of moose

Two possible anti-predator strategies of prey were suggested by the distribution of moose at Isle Royale, a 544 km² island with numerous offshore islets. Aerial surveys in winter indicated that moose density on small islets (<1.5 km²) averaged 415% greater than on the main island, with about 11% of the calf population existing on the small islets which comprise less than 2% of the total land area. On small islets and shorelines, protection from wolves (in the form of escape terrain) is provided by nearby water in summer and coniferous cover in winter. Calves on islands appear to have a higher survival rate. In summer, cow moose with calves were seen more commonly in camps with human activity (and no wolves) than away from camps, suggesting that people provided a refuge from wolf predation for this unhunted moose population. These subtle patterns of habitat selection by moose are attributed to the intensive natural selection pressure of wolf predation.     

Black bear (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ursus americanus</Emphasis>) and wolf (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Canis</Emphasis> spp.) summer diet composition and ungulate prey selectivity in Ontario,Canada

Understanding predator-prey dynamics is an important component of management strategy development for wildlife populations that are directly affected by predation. Ungulates often serve as a significant source of prey for many large mammal predators, and patterns of predation are known to influence population dynamics. Although black bear and wolf diets have been investigated extensively, prey preference has been less commonly examined, especially in analyses that take into account age class (i.e., juvenile and adult) of the ungulate prey. We examined black bear (Ursus americanus), wolf (Canis lupus), and hybrids (Canis spp.) prey preference in Ontario based on the availability of three ungulate species—elk (Cervus elaphus), moose (Alces alces), and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We analyzed the presence of prey items in black bear and wolf scats collected over 3 years by examining prey hair cuticular scale patterns. We applied correction factors to frequencies of occurrence of prey items found in predator scat and related diet composition to the availability of ungulates, determined by fecal pellet transect surveys. In addition, non-ungulate diet items were identified to obtain full diet composition profiles. We found that black bear diet consisted of more than 87% vegetation, and they were opportunistic, not selecting for any particular ungulate species in either adult or juvenile age class. Wolf diet was comprised mainly of ungulates (~?73.2%), muskrat (Ondatra zibethica; ~?8.5%), and beaver (Castor canadensis; ~?14.6%), and although moose were at least 1.5 times more abundant then each of the other ungulate prey species in the study area, wolves preferred elk, using moose less than expected. Although we found black bear diet to be opportunistic during the summer, wolves in our study heavily utilized both juvenile and adult ungulates, however, among ungulate species, displayed preference for elk. The preference displayed by wolves provides insight that wildlife managers can use to guide further investigation and assist with the development of strategies to ensure continued elk reintroduction success, and moose and white-tailed deer population sustainability.     

Coexistence of wolves and humans in a densely populated region (Lower Saxony,Germany)

Since the first sporadic occurrences of grey wolves (Canis lupus) west of the Polish border in 1996, wolves have shown a rapid population recovery in Germany. Wolves are known to avoid people and wolf attacks on humans are very rare worldwide. However, the subjectively perceived threat is considerable, especially as food-conditioned habituation to humans occurs sporadically. Lower Saxony (Germany) has an exceedingly higher human population density than most other regions with territorial wolves; thus, the potential for human–wolf conflicts is higher. Using hunters’ wildlife survey data from 455 municipalities and two years (2014–2015) and data from the official wolf monitoring (557 confirmed wolf presences and 500 background points) collected between 2012–2015, grey wolf habitat selection was modelled using generalized additive models with respect to human population density, road density, forest cover and roe deer density. Moreover, we tested whether habitat use changed in response to human population and road density between 2012/2013 and 2014/2015.Wolves showed a preference for areas of low road density. Human population density was less important as a covariate in the model of the survey data. Areas with higher prey abundance (5–10 roe deer/km²) and areas with >20% forest cover were preferred wolf habitats. Wolves were mostly restricted to areas with the lowest road and human population densities. However, between the two time periods, avoidance of human density decreased significantly.Recolonization of Germany is still in its early stages and it is unclear where this process will halt. To-date authorities mainly concentrate on monitoring measures. However, to avoid conflict, recolonization will require more stringent management of wolf populations and an improved information strategy for rural populations.     

Large-scale climatic fluctuation and population dynamics of moose and white-tailed deer

1. Mech et al . (1987) documented cumulative, negative effects of previous winters' snow on rates of population increase in moose ( Alces alces ) and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ), but noted no effect of predation by wolves ( Canis lupus ). Those results were contested by Messier (1991), who analysed smoothed versions of the original abundance data and reported no effect of snow accumulation on population dynamics of either species, but strong effects of wolf predation and food competition.
2. McRoberts, Mech & Peterson (1995) contended that the conclusions reached by Messier (1991) were an artefact of the use of smoothed data. In a subsequent re-analysis of the smoothed data, Messier (1995) argued that the lack of an effect of snow after one year precluded the potential for a cumulative effect beyond one year.
3. We re-analysed original and smoothed data on dynamics of moose and white-tailed deer densities using the same methods as Mech et al . (1987) and Messier (1991), but we used a measure of global climatic fluctuation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The NAO is the atmospheric process determining most interannual variation in snowfall and winter temperatures in northern latitudes, and its phases drive decadal trends in wintertime precipitation.
4. We observed that rates of increase of moose and white-tailed deer in both the original and smoothed data were influenced by global climatic fluctuation at 2- and 3-year lags, as well as by delayed density-dependent feedback and wolf predation.     

The influence of prey consumption and demographic stochasticity on population growth rate of Isle Royale wolves Canis lupus

The relationship between the rates of prey capture and predator population growth is a fundamental aspect of predation, yet it is rarely measured for vertebrate predators. For the isolated wolf population on Isle Royale, annual variation in kill rate explains 22% of the variation in wolf population growth rate. From the slope of this relationship, we estimate that the production efficiency (ratio of production to respiration) of wolves is between 0.5% and 1.5%. More generally, we assess the relative extent to which wolf population growth rate is affected by density dependence, prey availability (moose, Alces alces ), winter weather, and demographic stochasticity. Prey availability explains the most variation in wolf growth rate (42%), but this is only recognized after accounting for the influence of a disease-induced population crash and age structure of the prey population (i.e. number of vulnerable moose, >9 years of age). Demographic stochasticity accounts for approximately 30% of the variation in wolf growth rate. This recognition is important, but not surprising, given that the average population size of Isle Royale wolves is 22. Previous work indicates that the effect of winter climate, as mediated through prey vulnerability and kill rates, is substantial. This work indicates that the direct effect of winter climate is weak, and explains only about 4% of the variation in wolf growth rate (P=0.10).     

Moose movement rates are altered by wolf presence in two ecosystems

Predators directly impact prey populations through lethal encounters, but understanding nonlethal, indirect effects is also critical because foraging animals often face trade‐offs between predator avoidance and energy intake. Quantifying these indirect effects can be difficult even when it is possible to monitor individuals that regularly interact. Our goal was to understand how movement and resource selection of a predator (wolves; Canis lupus) influence the movement behavior of a prey species (moose; Alces alces). We tested whether moose avoided areas with high predicted wolf resource use in two study areas with differing prey compositions, whether avoidance patterns varied seasonally, and whether daily activity budgets of moose and wolves aligned temporally. We deployed GPS collars on both species at two sites in northern Minnesota. We created seasonal resource selection functions (RSF) for wolves and modeled the relationship between moose first‐passage time (FPT), a method that discerns alterations in movement rates, and wolf RSF values. Larger FPT values suggest rest/foraging, whereas shorter FPT values indicate travel/fleeing. We found that the movements of moose and wolves peaked at similar times of day in both study areas. Moose FPTs were 45% lower in areas most selected for by wolves relative to those avoided. The relationship between wolf RSF and moose FPT was nonlinear and varied seasonally. Differences in FPT between low and high RSF values were greatest in winter (?82.1%) and spring (?57.6%) in northeastern Minnesota and similar for all seasons in the Voyageurs National Park ecosystem. In northeastern Minnesota, where moose comprise a larger percentage of wolf diet, the relationship between moose FPT and wolf RSF was more pronounced (ave. across seasons: ?60.1%) than the Voyageurs National Park ecosystem (?30.4%). These findings highlight the role wolves can play in determining moose behavior, whereby moose spend less time in areas with higher predicted likelihood of wolf resource selection.