Predicting risk of invasion in a Mediterranean island using niche modelling and valuable biota

Invasion by alien species is nowadays considered as one of the major threats to biodiversity. Thus, the identification of the areas exposed to a greater risk of invasion represents a priority for management purpose, especially in presence of habitats worthy of conservation. This paper aims to propose a method to produce a map of risk of invasion, merging together the threat of invasion by invasive plants and the distribution of habitats with high conservation value, on the case study of the Island of Elba (Tuscan Archipelago). We modelled the potential distribution of six particularly harmful invasive plants and merged these distributions into a map of threat of invasion. This map was overlapped to the map of density of Natura2000 habitats, finally obtaining a map of risk of invasion. According to our analyses, the potential distribution of the invasive species resulted highly influenced by human-related factors. The habitats more at risk are those closer to streets and anthropic habitats, which are more likely to be colonized by the invasive species we studied. We identified some rare habitats which are strongly endangered, highlighting that around 20% of the surface of the Island is exposed to some level of risk of invasion.     

Predicting invasions by woody species in a temperate zone: a test of three risk assessment schemes in the Czech Republic (Central Europe)

To assess the validity of previously developed risk assessment schemes in the conditions of Central Europe, we tested (1) Australian weed risk assessment scheme (WRA; Pheloung et al . 1999); (2) WRA with additional analysis by Daehler et al . (2004); and (3) decision tree scheme of Reichard and Hamilton (1997) developed in North America, on a data set of 180 alien woody species commonly planted in the Czech Republic. This list included 17 invasive species, 9 naturalized but non-invasive, 31 casual aliens, and 123 species not reported to escape from cultivation. The WRA model with additional analysis provided best results, rejecting 100% of invasive species, accepting 83.8% of non-invasive, and recommending further 13.0% for additional analysis. Overall accuracy of the WRA model with additional analysis was 85.5%, higher than that of the basic WRA scheme (67.9%) and the Reichard–Hamilton model (61.6%). Only the Reichard–Hamilton scheme accepted some invaders. The probability that an accepted species will become an invader was zero for both WRA models and 3.2% for the Reichard–Hamilton model. The probability that a rejected species would have been an invader was 77.3% for both WRA models and 24.0% for the Reichard–Hamilton model. It is concluded that the WRA model, especially with additional analysis, appears to be a promising template for building a widely applicable system for screening out invasive plant introductions.     

The cobblers stick to their lasts: pollinators prefer native over alien plant species in a multi-species experiment

The majority of plant species rely, at least partly, on animals for pollination. Our knowledge on whether pollinator visitation differs between native and alien plant species, and between invasive and non-invasive alien species is still limited. Additionally, because numerous invasive plant species are escapees from horticulture, the transition from human-assisted occurrence in urbanized habitats to unassisted persistence and spread in (semi-)natural habitats requires study. To address whether pollinator visitation differs between native, invasive alien and non-invasive alien species, we did pollinator observations for a total of 17 plant species representing five plant families. To test whether pollinator visitation to the three groups of species during the initial stage of invasion depends on habitat type, we did the study in three urbanized habitats and three semi-natural grasslands, using single potted plants. Native plants had more but smaller flower units than alien plants, and invasive alien plants had more but smaller flowers than non-invasive alien plants. After accounting for these differences in floral display, pollinator visitation was higher for native than for alien plant species, but did not differ between invasive and non-invasive alien plant species. Pollinator visitation was on average higher in semi-natural than in urbanized habitats, irrespective of origin or status of the plant species. This might suggest that once an alien species has managed to escape from urbanized into more natural habitats, pollinator limitation will not be a major barrier to establishment and invasion.     

Alien invasive plants in China: risk assessment and spatial patterns

With a wide range of habitats and exploding development of international trade, China is facing escalating risk of the plant invasion. Research on the risk assessment of alien invasive plants may help us manage the invasive with priority, and is imperatively needed in China. However, until now, few studies have been conducted for the risk of alien invasive plants and its spatial patterns in China, especially with a regard to ecosystem conservation and biodiversity protection. In this paper, we assessed the risk of invasive plants and its spatial patterns. We focused on the following basic questions: Which alien invasive plants are the most noxious, and which of them are mild? How are the spatial patterns of alien invasive plants at different risk ranks? In the present study, the risk of 100 major alien invasive plants in China was assessed based on a revised risk assessment system and an extensive consult with literatures. The results indicated that there were 18 species of rank 1st, 29 of rank 2nd, 33 of rank 3rd and 20 of rank 4th. Although, there was high richness of alien invasive plants in South China, most of them were of low risk. By contrast, low richness of alien invasive plants was observed in North China and the regions in high altitude, but most of the invasive were of high risk. Compared with previous studies, our study appears to have delivered credible results and may play an early warning function, and also further our understanding of the risk of invasive plants and its spatial patterns in China, though we acknowledged that the risk assessment may have some potential weakness, and appealed timely and further investigations in future.     

Assessing the risk of potentially invasive plant species in central Europe

A risk assessment system was developed to assess the invasion potential of new environmental weeds in central Europe. A pre-evaluation step excludes species that are officially controlled, widespread, or intended for use in protected cultures only. Species eligible for risk assessment are classified into three categories (high risk, further observation required, low risk) by rating them according to various biogeographical and ecological aspects. The rating system was validated by testing 47 well-known invasive plant species of temperate Europe and 193 exotic plants which have failed to establish themselves in Switzerland. The overall accuracy was 65%. Accuracy of correctly predicting invasive species was 77%, while accuracy of correctly predicting non-invasive species was 62%. The proposed risk assessment protocol should be understood as a first attempt for a European country and needs modifications. These can only be achieved by applying the system in practice.     

Predicting plant invaders in the Mediterranean through a weed risk assessment system

Risk assessment schemes have been developed to identify potential invasive species, prevent their spread and reduce their damaging effects. One of the most promising tools for detecting plant invaders is the weed risk assessment (WRA) scheme developed for Australia. Our study explores whether the Australian WRA can satisfactorily predict the invasion status of alien plants in the Mediterranean Basin by screening 100 invasive and 97 casual species in Spain. Furthermore, we analysed whether the factors taken into account in the WRA are linked to invasion likelihood (i.e., invasion status) or to impacts. The outcome was that 94% of the invasive species were rejected, 50% of the casual species were rejected and 29% of them required further evaluation. The accuracy for casuals is lower than in other studies that have tested non-invasive (i.e., casuals or non-escaped) alien species. We postulate that low accuracy for casual species could result from: (1) an incorrect “a priori” expert classification of the species status, (2) a high weight of the WRA scores given to potential impacts, and (3) casual species being prone to becoming invasive when reaching a minimum residence time threshold. Therefore, the WRA could be working as a precaution early-warning system to identify casual species with potential to become invasive.     

Traits explain invasion of alien plants into tropical rainforests

• 1. The establishment of new botanic gardens in tropical regions highlights a need for weed risk assessment tools suitable for tropical ecosystems. The relevance of plant traits for invasion into tropical rainforests has not been well studied.
• 2. Working in and around four botanic gardens in Indonesia where 590 alien species have been planted, we estimated the effect of four plant traits, plus time since species introduction, on: (a) the naturalization probability and (b) abundance (density) of naturalized species in adjacent native tropical rainforests; and (c) the distance that naturalized alien plants have spread from the botanic gardens.
• 3. We found that specific leaf area (SLA) strongly differentiated 23 naturalized from 78 non‐naturalized alien species (randomly selected from 577 non‐naturalized species) in our study. These trends may indicate that aliens with high SLA, which had a higher probability of naturalization, benefit from at least two factors when establishing in tropical forests: high growth rates and occupation of forest gaps. Naturalized aliens had high SLA and tended to be short. However, plant height was not significantly related to species'' naturalization probability when considered alongside other traits.
• 4. Alien species that were present in the gardens for over 30 years and those with small seeds also had higher probabilities of becoming naturalized, indicating that garden plants can invade the understorey of closed canopy tropical rainforests, especially when invading species are shade tolerant and have sufficient time to establish.
• 5. On average, alien species that were not animal dispersed spread 78 m further into the forests and were more likely to naturalize than animal‐dispersed species. We did not detect relationships between the measured traits and estimated density of naturalized aliens in the adjacent forests.
• 6. Synthesis: Traits were able to differentiate alien species from botanic gardens that naturalized in native forest from those that did not; this is promising for developing trait‐based risk assessment in the tropics. To limit the risk of invasion and spread into adjacent native forests, we suggest tropical botanic gardens avoid planting alien species with fast carbon capture strategies and those that are shade tolerant.

     

Invasive river plants from Portuguese floodplains: What can species attributes tell us?

Biological traits of aquatic and riparian plants were compared among invasive and non-invasive groups of species from both native and exotic taxa in Portuguese fluvial systems. Twenty-six riparian and aquatic species were selected and their frequency of occurrence and foliar percentage cover was analysed at 401 sampling sites on the main catchments of Central and Southern Portugal. Canonical correspondence analysis and a hierarchical clustering were applied to the species traits data set. No typical invader profile emerged from the analyses. However, some specific attributes were clearly related to the alien and native plant invasiveness, such as vegetative reproduction, fragment viability and life span. The results of the present work could help with the early detection of invasive plant species in Portuguese fluvial corridors. Electronic Supplementary Material Electronic supplementary material is available for this article atand accessible for authorised users.     

重要外来入侵植物随南水北调工程传入京津冀受水区的风险评估

【目的】外来物种在入侵地的扩张蔓延是其造成危害的关键。南水北调工程可为已入侵外来物种的进一步扩张蔓延提供通道和驱动力。风险评估可为预防入侵植物通过该途径的扩散蔓延提供依据。【方法】以国家重点管理外来入侵物种名录中的入侵植物为研究对象,根据生物入侵的发生过程(传入、定殖、扩散、危害)构建了包括4个层次29个指标的外来物种入侵综合风险评估的指标体系,规范了风险指数的计算方法,系统评估了24种入侵植物沿南水北调输水通道向北扩散而入侵京津冀受水区的风险。【结果】紫茎泽兰和互花米草的入侵风险值(R)相对较低(R0.6),其余22种入侵植物的风险值均较高(R0.6),其中,喜旱莲子草、凤眼莲和大薸3种外来水生植物的入侵风险等级最高(R0.8)。【结论】南水北调工程可能会促进入侵植物向北扩张蔓延并最终入侵京津冀受水区。建议尽早开展监测预警工作,以控制入侵物种随南水北调工程的扩张蔓延,进而阻止或降低其对京津冀尤其是华北最大水源地——白洋淀和雄安新区生态环境的威胁。     

Invasive alien plants in China: diversity and ecological insights

China’s current invasive alien plant species were analyzed with regard to their floristic status, biological attributes and invasion status elsewhere. Most of the 270 species identified were annuals, followed by perennial herbs. Woody perennials made only about 10% of the species. The invasives were comprised of 59 families, the largest being Asteraceae, Poaceae, and Brassicaceae. The genera with most invasive species were Amaranthus, Ipomoea, and Solanum. Most of the species originated from the New World, notably from South America. About one-third of the species were serious invaders of natural habitats in countries other than China. The proportion of invasive alien plants in province floras ranged from 0.5 to 3.8%, absolute numbers from nine to 117 species per province. Density of invasive species was correlated positively with native species density at provincial scale. The results demonstrate that in China invasive plants are present throughout the country, with a particularly high species richness in the Southeast. The ecological diversity of invasive plants suggests wide ranging impacts which need to be assessed.     

Worldwide Alien Invasion: A Methodological Approach to Forecast the Potential Spread of a Highly Invasive Pollinator

The ecological impacts of alien species invasion are a major threat to global biodiversity. The increasing number of invasion events by alien species and the high cost and difficulty of eradicating invasive species once established require the development of new methods and tools for predicting the most susceptible areas to invasion. Invasive pollinators pose serious threats to biodiversity and human activity due to their close relationship with many plants (including crop species) and high potential competitiveness for resources with native pollinators. Although at an early stage of expansion, the bumblebee species Bombus terrestris is becoming a representative case of pollinator invasion at a global scale, particularly given its high velocity of invasive spread and the increasing number of reports of its impacts on native bees and crops in many countries. We present here a methodological framework of habitat suitability modeling that integrates new approaches for detecting habitats that are susceptible to Bombus terrestris invasion at a global scale. Our approach did not include reported invaded locations in the modeling procedure; instead, those locations were used exclusively to evaluate the accuracy of the models in predicting suitability over regions already invaded. Moreover, a new and more intuitive approach was developed to select the models and evaluate different algorithms based on their performance and predictive convergence. Finally, we present a comprehensive global map of susceptibility to Bombus terrestris invasion that highlights priority areas for monitoring.     

广州外来入侵植物

根据野外调查及相关文献资料,初步探讨了广州市外来入侵植物的种类组成、分布生境、生长特性、危害以及来源.结果表明:广州市现有外来人侵植物73种,隶属于27科59属,其中菊科(19种)、禾本科(8种)、豆科(7种)和苋科(7种)植物占了入侵植物总种数的56.2%.生活型分析发现,在广州有分布的外来入侵植物中,陆生草本植物最多(58种),其次为灌木(10种)、水生草本(3种),乔木种类最少(2种),它们主要生长在人类干扰比较频繁的低海拔地区.另外,基于对外来入侵植物目前在野外的生长和分布状况等生态学特性进行分析,可大致将它们对本地生物多样性危害程度分为3级,其中危害严重的有11种,危害中等的有25种,危害较轻的有37种.从原产地分析来看,61种来自于热带美洲地区,占广州外来入侵植物总种数的83.6%.与国内其他地区外来入侵植物进行比较发现,广州和广西共有种数最多,有62种,然而,对已经造成严重危害的外来植物种类,在数量上广州与香港、深圳和广西相同种类较多,分别有8种、7种和6种.对广州市目前外来植物的入侵风险(潜在威胁)的评估结果表明,对一些在其它地区已经造成严重危害的外来植物,应当加强监控,防止入侵扩散并造成重大生态灾难.还对广州市外来植物入侵的主要途径及防治策略做了简要分析和说明.     

Risk Assessment and Invasion Characteristics of Alien Plants in and Around the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China

Two risk assessment protocols were adopted to assess the risks posed by alien plants that naturalized or non-naturalized in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China (AGENC). In this study the Risk Assessment for Central Europe method revealed that more than two-thirds of the 19 naturalized and four-fifths of the 17 non-naturalized alien plants presented high or moderate risk, and all 36 alien plants were considered to be rejected for their potential agricultural and environmental risks under the Australian Weed Risk Assessment system. On the characteristics of plant invasions, more attention should be given to disturbed habitats rather than these relative natural or closed ecosystems, and also be prudent and careful of the alien plants that are introduced as useful plants from North or South America and unintentional introduction from Europe. Moreover, annuals needed special attention: three-quarters of the alien plants were annual species, only a few were biennial (8.3%), perennial (11.1%), liana and tree plants (2.8%). Plant invasions are not extremely serious in the AGENC, but there are several alien plants that have naturalized and spread themselves in the region. However, attention should be given in the future to predicting and preventing plant invasions in this fragile region.     

The status and causes of alien species invasion in China

Data of classification, origin, pathway and environmental impacts of invasive alien micro-organisms, invertebrates, amphibians and reptiles, fish, birds, mammals, weeds, trees, and marine organisms in terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems of China, were analyzed, based on literature retrieval, field survey and consultation. Some 283 invasive alien species were recorded in China, including 19 invasive alien micro-organisms, 18 aquatic plants, 170 terrestrial plants, 25 aquatic invertebrates, 33 terrestrial invertebrates, 3 amphibians and reptiles, 10 fish, and 5 mammals. Of the invasive alien species, 55.1% originated from North and South America, 21.7% from Europe, 9.9% from Asia, 8.1% from Africa and 0.6% from Oceania. Many institutions and individuals in China lack adequate knowledge of ecological and environmental consequences caused by invasive alien species, with some ignorance of the dangerous invasion in the introduction of alien species. For instance, 50.0% of invasive alien plants were intentionally introduced as pasture, feedingstuff, ornamental plants, textile plants, medicinal plants, vegetables, or lawn plants, 25% of alien invasive animals were intentionally introduced for cultivation, ornament, or biological control, In addition, more efforts are being made in the introduction of alien species, and little attention is paid on the management of introduced alien species, which may cause their escape into natural environment and potential threats to the environment. There were also gaps in quarantine system in China. All microorganisms were unintentionally introduced, through timber, seedling, flowerpot, or soil; 76.3% of alien invasive animals invaded through commodity or transportation facility because of the failure of quarantine. Therefore, quarantine measures should be strictly implemented; and meanwhile the intentional introduction of alien species should be strictly managed and a system of risk assessment should be implemented.     

中国外来入侵生物的空间分布格局及其影响因素

不同地理区域影响生物分布格局的因子不同,对外来入侵物种也是如此。在区域尺度上分析外来入侵生物的空间分布格局及其影响因子对预测生物入侵的影响及入侵种的控制管理具有重要意义。本研究应用中国外来入侵物种数据库、自然环境数据库和社会人文环境数据库,分析了我国外来入侵动植物的空间格局;并运用主成分分析（PCA）和典范对应分析（CCA）探讨了自然环境和人类活动等因素对外来入侵动植物分布格局的影响;同时研究了外来入侵物种多样性与本地物种多样性之间的关系。结果表明,我国现有外来入侵动物138种、入侵植物384种,其数量和密度都呈现出由东南沿海向西北内陆减少的趋势,且入侵动物和入侵植物空间格局基本一致;降水（MAP）是决定我国外来入侵动植物分布格局的主要自然环境因子,国民生产总值（GDP）是主要社会经济影响因子。在全国尺度上,外来入侵物种多样性与本地物种多样性之间呈显著的正相关关系,但地域间存在较大差异。不同区域外来入侵物种与本土物种多样性的相关关系表现出不同,与研究尺度有密切关系。     

外来种入侵的过程、机理和预测

生物入侵是指某种生物从原来的分布区域扩展到一个新的（通常也是遥远的）地区,在新的区域里,其后代可以繁殖、扩散并持续维持下去,生物入侵成功的原因,即与入侵者本身的生物学,生态学特征有关,也与群落的脆弱性有关,入侵者可能较本地种的竞争能力强,更适应当地的环境,有的入侵者还可以改变环境,使之对已有利,而不利于本地种。缺乏天敌制约。群落的稳定性低和异常的环境扰动往往导致生物入侵,生物入侵的预测包括哪一种外来种会变成入侵种？哪些生态系统区域会被入侵？影响程度如何？入侵种的扩散态势如何等内容,对有关的理论和模型作了评介。     

Rapid prioritization of alien plants for eradication based on climatic suitability and eradication feasibility

Identifying which introduced species have the greatest potential for establishment, spread and impact is critical for prioritizing pre‐ and post‐border control. Using species distribution modelling and existing species locations we assessed the establishment risk based on the climatic suitability areas of 25 plant species listed as eradication targets under South African regulations. To improve confidence, three bioclimatic models were used to predict the potential distribution of each species. This information was combined with the number of localities and the “eradication feasibility syndromes” in a scoring‐categorical system to rank the species. Three management groups were identified. Group “A” includes species with medium‐high establishment risk and higher likelihood to be eradicated, these species should be a priority for eradication. Group “B” includes species with a medium‐low establishment risk but given the low number of known population and the species characteristics, eradication is likely to be feasible. Finally species in group “C” scored a medium‐high establishment risk but the eradication would be difficult due to the high number of known localities. This ranking provides a rapid method to prioritize the management towards the eradication of new potential invasive plant species in the country combining the establishment risk, known number of localities and the inferred eradication success.     

Fruit type,life form and origin determine the success of woody plant invaders in an urban landscape

The spread of alien plant species is a critical ecological event worldwide, but the forces that control this spread are not well documented. Alien plant species are well known to disrupt ecological services of native ecosystems, change the composition of native habitats, and often lead to the extirpation of native flora and fauna. Here, we report on life history patterns of plant species with rapidly spreading and declining ranges in North America’s major urban region. We tested for differences in life history traits between the 466 native and alien woody flora of the New York metropolitan area. We also examined the relationship between life history traits and change in distribution in the New York metropolitan area between 1900 and 2000. Native and alien species of the New York metropolitan area differ with respect to pollination vector and breeding system. However, pollination vector and breeding system are not associated with success, defined here as increasing range spread in the urban environment; instead, fruit type (dispersal), life form and origin are important determinants of success. Alien species that are deciduous trees, shrubs or vines with fleshy fruit are the most successful in increasing their distribution in this urban landscape. Newly introduced species with these characteristics are expected to have a better chance at establishing in similar urban landscapes and should be targets for intensive management. The ability to predict which alien species will become invasive is also a valuable tool for the prevention of invasions by newly introduced plant species.     

城市绿地外来物种风险分析体系构建及其在上海世博会管理中的应用

外来物种风险分析是防止生物入侵的有效手段之一。本文按照风险识别、风险评估和风险管理3个阶段,构建了城市绿地外来物种风险分析体系。文中提出了4个层次、26个指标构成风险评估指标体系,此体系囊括了城市绿地外来物种的传入、定殖、扩散、危害等入侵风险形成的基本要素,并规范了风险指数的计算方法。以2010年上海世博会引进日本景观苗木可能携带的外来物种为对象,对该体系在生产实践中进行了应用。结果表明:高风险物种共7种,涉及害虫4种、植物病原微生物2种、植物线虫1种;中风险物种共10种,涉及害虫3种、植物病原微生物4种、植物线虫3种;低、极低风险物种各1种。根据风险分析结果,对以上物种提出了有针对性的风险管理措施。实践表明,该风险分析体系实用性强,在上海世博会植物引种过程中为防止外来物种入侵起到了较好的预警效果,为管理者提供了有价值的决策参考,有力保障了上海世博会期间的生态安全。     

Calling time on alien plantscapes

Both urban and rural environments around the globe have become dominated by alien plant species to the extent that plantscapes from one region or country have become difficult to distinguish from many others. This process of plant community homogenisation comes at a cost to cultural identity and undermines people's sense of place. Although invasive alien plant species have received considerable attention in recent decades, issues with non-invasive alien plant species have largely been ignored, and yet they contribute significantly to biotic homogeneity and impose an ever accumulating invasion debt: a debt that increases in proportion with their population sizes. By contrast, an abundance of native species in the places where people live is important for strengthening commitment to biodiversity conservation. Is there therefore sufficient evidence of harm from increasing numbers of non-invasive alien plants to justify local and central governments introducing measures to substantially reduce the proportion of non-invasive aliens in both urban and rural environments?