Historical climate modelling predicts patterns of current biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic forest

Aim We aim to propose validated, spatially explicit hypotheses for the late Quaternary distribution of the Brazilian Atlantic forest, and thereby provide a framework for integrating analyses of species and genetic diversity in the region. Location The Atlantic forest, stretching along the Brazilian coast. Methods We model the spatial range of the forest under three climatic scenarios (current climate, 6000 and 21,000 years ago) with BIOCLIM and MAXENT. Historically stable areas or refugia are identified as the set of grid cells for which forest presence is inferred in all models and time projections. To validate inferred refugia, we test whether our models are matched by the current distribution of the forest and by fossil pollen data. We then investigate whether the location of inferred forest refugia is consistent with current patterns of species endemism and existing phylogeographical data. Results Forest models agree with pollen records and predict a large area of historical forest stability in the central corridor (Bahia), as well as a smaller refuge (Pernambuco) along the Brazilian coast, matching current centres of endemism in multiple taxa and mtDNA diversity patterns in a subset of the species examined. Less historical stability is predicted in coastal areas south of the Doce river, which agrees with most phylogeographical studies in that region. Yet some widely distributed taxa show high endemism in the southern Atlantic forest. This may be due to limitations of the modelling approach, differences in ecology and dispersal capability, historical processes not contemplated by the current study or inadequacy of the available test data sets. Main conclusions Palaeoclimatic models predict the presence of historical forest refugia in the Atlantic rain forest and suggest spatial variation in persistence of forests through the Pleistocene, predicting patterns of biodiversity in several local taxa. The results point to the need for further studies to document genetic and species endemism in the relatively poorly known and highly impacted areas of Atlantic rain forests of north‐eastern Brazil.     

Can changes in ant diversity along elevational gradients in tropical and subtropical Australian rainforests be used to detect a signal of past lowland biotic attrition?

Increasing temperatures are predicted to have profound effects on montane ecosystems. In tropical forests, biotic attrition may reduce lowland diversity if losses of species due to upslope range shifts are not matched by influxes of warmer‐adapted species, either because there are none or their dispersal is impeded. Australian rainforests consist of a north–south chain of patches, broken by dry corridors that are barriers to the dispersal of rainforest species. These rainforests have repeatedly contracted and expanded during Quaternary glacial cycles. Many lowland rainforests are expansions since the Last Glacial Maximum and may, therefore, show a signal of historical biotic attrition. We surveyed ants from replicated sites along three rainforest elevational transects in eastern Australia spanning 200 to 1200 m a.s.l. and nearly 14° of latitude. We examined elevational patterns of ant diversity and if there was possible evidence of lowland biotic attrition. Each transect was in a different biogeographic region; the Australian Wet Tropics (16.3°S), the central Queensland coast (21.1°S) and subtropical south‐eastern Queensland (28.1°S). We calculated ant species density (mean species per site) and species richness (estimated number of species by incorporating site‐to‐site species turnover) within elevational bands. Ant species density showed no signal of lowland attrition and was high at low and mid‐elevations and declined only at high elevations at all transects. Similarly, estimated species richness showed no evidence of lowland attrition in the Wet Tropics and subtropical south‐east Queensland; species richness peaked at low elevations and declined monotonically with increasing elevation. Persistence of lowland rainforest refugia in the Wet Tropics during the Last Glacial Maximum and latitudinal range shifts of ants in subtropical rainforests during the Holocene climatic optimum may have counteracted lowland biotic attrition. In central Queensland, however, estimated richness was similar in the lowlands and mid‐elevations, and few ant species were indicative of lower elevations. This may reflect historical biotic attrition due perhaps to a lack of lowland glacial refugia and the isolation of this region by a dry forest barrier to the north.     

Immigrants and refugees: the importance of dispersal in mediating biotic attrition under climate change

Montane tropical rainforests are critically important areas for global bird diversity, but are projected to be highly vulnerable to contemporary climate change. Upslope shifts of lowland species may partially offset declines in upland species but also result in a process of lowland biotic attrition. This latter process is contingent on the absence of species adapted to novel warm climates, and isolation from pools of potential colonizers. In the Australian Wet Tropics, species distribution modelling has forecast critical declines in suitable environmental area for upland endemic birds, raising the question of the future role of both natural and assisted dispersal in species survival, but information is lacking for important neighbouring rainforest regions. Here we use expanded geographic coverage of data to model the realized distributions of 120 bird species found in north‐eastern Australian rainforest, including species from potential source locations in the north and recipient locations in the south. We reaffirm previous conclusions as to the high vulnerability of this fauna to global warming, and extend the list of species whose suitable environmental area is projected to decrease. However, we find that expansion of suitable area for some species currently restricted to northern rainforests has the potential to offset biotic attrition in lowland forest of the Australian Wet Tropics. By examining contrasting dispersal scenarios, we show that responses to climate change in this region may critically depend on dispersal limitation, as climate change shifts the suitable environmental envelopes of many species south into currently unsuitable habitats. For lowland and northern species, future change in vegetation connectivity across contemporary habitat barriers is likely to be an important mediator of climate change impacts. In contrast, upland species are projected to become increasingly isolated and restricted. Their survival is likely to be more dependent on the viability of assisted migration, and the emergence and persistence of suitable environments at recipient locations.     

Neotropical seasonally dry forests and Quaternary vegetation changes

Seasonally dry tropical forests have been largely ignored in discussions of vegetation changes during the Quaternary. We distinguish dry forests, which are essentially tree‐dominated ecosystems, from open savannas that have a xeromorphic fire‐tolerant, grass layer and grow on dystrophic, acid soils. Seasonally dry tropical forests grow on fertile soils, usually have a closed canopy, have woody floras dominated by the Leguminosae and Bignoniaceae and a sparse ground flora with few grasses. They occur in disjunct areas throughout the Neotropics. The Chaco forests of central South America experience regular annual frosts, and are considered a subtropical extension of temperate vegetation formations. At least 104 plant species from a wide range of families are each found in two or more of the isolated areas of seasonally dry tropical forest scattered across the Neotropics, and these repeated patterns of distribution suggest a more widespread expanse of this vegetation, presumably in drier and cooler periods of the Pleistocene. We propose a new vegetation model for some areas of the Ice‐Age Amazon: a type of seasonally dry tropical forest, with rain forest and montane taxa largely confined to gallery forest. This model is consistent with the distributions of contemporary seasonally dry tropical forest species in Amazonia and existing palynological data. The hypothesis of vicariance of a wider historical area of seasonally dry tropical forests could be tested using a cladistic biogeographic approach focusing on plant genera that have species showing high levels of endemicity in the different areas of these forests.     

Effects of historical forest contraction on the phylogeographic structure of Australo‐Papuan populations of the red‐legged pademelon (Macropodidae: Thylogale stigmatica)

Geographic patterns of genetic variation are strongly influenced by historical changes in species habitats. Whether such patterns are common to co‐distributed taxa may depend on the extent to which species vary in ecology and vagility. We investigated whether broad‐scale phylogeographic patterns common to a number of small‐bodied vertebrate and invertebrate species in eastern Australian forests were reflected in the population genetic structure of an Australo‐Papuan forest marsupial, the red‐legged pademelon (Macropodidae: Thylogale stigmatica). Strong genetic structuring of mtDNA haplotypes indicated the persistence of T. stigmatica populations across eastern Australia and southern New Guinea in Pleistocene refugial areas consistent with those inferred from studies of smaller, poorly dispersing species. However, there was limited divergence of haplotypes across two known historical barriers in the northeastern Wet Tropics (Black Mountain Barrier) and coastal mideastern Queensland (Burdekin Gap) regions. Lack of divergence across these barriers may reflect post‐glacial recolonization of forests from a large, central refugium in the Wet Tropics. Additionally, genetic structure is not consistent with the present delimitation of subspecies T. s. wilcoxi and T. s. stigmatica across the Burdekin Gap. Instead, the genetic division occurs further to the south in mideastern Queensland. Thus, while larger‐bodied marsupials such as T. stigmatica did persist in Pleistocene refugia common to a number of other forest‐restricted species, species‐specific local extinction and recolonization events have resulted in cryptic patterns of genetic variation. Our study demonstrates the importance of understanding individualistic responses to historical climate change in order to adequately conserve genetic diversity and the evolutionary potential of species.     

Characteristics of the Psidium cattleianum invasion of secondary rainforests

Strawberry guava (Psidium cattleianum) is a shade‐tolerant shrub or small tree invader in tropical and subtropical regions and is considered among the world's top 100 worst invasive species. Studies from affected regions report deleterious effects of strawberry guava invasion on native vegetation. Here we examine the life history demographics and environmental determinants of strawberry guava invasions to inform effective weed management in affected rainforest regions. We surveyed the vegetation of 8 mature rainforest and 33 successional sites at various stages of regeneration in the Australian Wet Tropics and found that strawberry guava invasion was largely restricted to successional forests. Strawberry guava exhibited high stem and seedling densities, represented approximately 8% of all individual stems recorded and 20% of all seedlings recorded. The species also had the highest basal area among all the non‐native woody species measured. We compared environmental and community level effects between strawberry guava‐invaded and non‐invaded sites, and modelled how the species basal area and recruitment patterns respond to these effects. Invaded sites differed from non‐invaded sites in several environmental features such as aspect, distance from intact forest blocks, as well as supported higher grass and herb stem densities. Our analysis showed that invasion is currently ongoing in secondary forests, and also that strawberry guava is able to establish and persist under closed canopies. If left unchecked, strawberry guava invasion will have deleterious consequences for native regenerating forest in the Australian Wet Tropics.     

Does biogeographical history matter? Diversity and distribution of lotic midges (Diptera: Chironomidae) in the Australian Wet Tropics

Abstract We examined broad scale patterns of diversity and distribution of lotic Chironomidae (Diptera) within the Wet Tropics bioregion of northern Queensland, Australia. Field surveys across broad latitudinal and altitudinal gradients within the Wet Tropics revealed a fauna of 87 species‐level taxa in 49 genera comprising three main elements: a small genuinely tropical fraction, and larger cosmopolitan and Gondwanan components. The latter group originated when Australia, as part of the ancient Gondwana supercontinent, was situated over Antarctic latitudes with a cooler, wetter climate than today. In the Wet Tropics, cool Gondwanan taxa occurred predominantly in upland and shaded lowland sites, but no species appeared narrowly temperature restricted, and there was no faunal zonation with altitude. Most chironomid species occurred at all latitudes within the Wet Tropics, with no evidence for an enduring effect of the historical rainforest contractions on current‐day distribution patterns. These findings contrast with those for aquatic faunas elsewhere in the world and for the terrestrial Wet Tropics fauna. We relate this to the generally broad environmental tolerances of Australian chironomids, and comment on why the latitudinal diversity gradient does not apply to the Australian chironomid fauna.     

Modelling late Quaternary changes in plant distribution, vegetation and climate using pollen data from Georgia, Caucasus

Aim To use pollen data, numerical analysis and modelling to reconstruct late Quaternary vegetation and climate in a complex, mountainous environment. Location Georgia (Caucasus region). Methods Pollen data were assembled from various sources and used to map: (1) changing frequencies of individual taxa; (2) vegetation changes; and (3) reconstructed climatic parameters for the past 14,000 years. Numerical analyses were performed using two‐way indicator species analysis (twinspan ), detrended correspondence analysis (DCA), the modern analogue technique (MAT) and weighted averaging (WA). Results Mapping of pollen taxa showed that Chenopodiaceae, Artemisia and Ephedra were most abundant in the study area during the late‐glacial. Betula and Corylus expanded during the early Holocene, yielding to Abies, Carpinus, Fagus, Quercus and Castanea. Picea, Pinus, Juglans and Ostrya‐type expanded during the late Holocene. Mixed forests grew in the moist, Black Sea refugium throughout the late Quaternary. Elsewhere in Georgia, the Pleistocene–Holocene transition is recorded as a shift from desert‐steppes to oak‐xerophyte communities and mixed forests. This kind of vegetation remained relatively stable until the mid–late Holocene, when coniferous forests and mountain grasslands advanced. DCA showed that rainfall was most strongly correlated with pollen composition in the study area (r² = 0.55). No temperature signal was detected. A weighted‐averaging transfer function linking pollen percentages to annual precipitation was selected over a MAT model as it performed better when applied to a validation data set. Rainfall reconstructions indicate widespread aridity at the terminal Pleistocene, followed by a gradual increase in precipitation, peaking during the mid Holocene (7000–4000 cal. yr bp ) and generally decreasing thereafter. Main conclusions On a regional scale, the results confirm those from previous studies of palaeovegetation and palaeoclimate in Western Asia. On a local scale, reconstructions from individual sites often diverge from the regional trend because of edaphic changes, ecological succession, human impacts and other disturbances. Some of these factors are probably responsible for the increasing heterogeneity of Georgia’s vegetation in the latter half of the Holocene.     

Environmental change and rain forests on the Sunda shelf of Southeast Asia: drought, fire and the biological cooling of biodiversity hotspots

Environmental change during the Quaternary period has caused changes in the composition and structure of vegetation on the Sunda shelf of Southeast Asia. Climatic conditions drier than the present, particularly during the peak of the last ice age, led to a reduction in the extent of rain forests. Most recently, there has been a close association between drought and the occurrence of major, rain forest fires. Although many rain forest trees show adaptations to periodic drought, this is not the case for frequent or intense fires. Over evolutionary time-scales, major fires may thus have been largely confined to driver vegetation types, such as monsoon and deciduous forests, and only infrequently penetrated rain forest areas. Continental-scale distribution patterns for rain forest species reveal a number of biodiversity hotspots that are consistent for a broad range of taxonomically unrelated taxa. These biodiversity hotspots account for a relatively small part of the total extent of rain forest; they may also represent ecologically relatively stable areas. This paper discusses the location and extent of biodiversity hotspots on the Sunda shelf within the context of past and present environmental change. It finds that whatever the history of biodiversity hotspots, they are increasingly threatened by contemporary environmental change, notably a trend towards increasingly frequent and intense fires. The paper concludes that the trend is likely to continue, without major changes in those activities that degrade and precondition to fire remaining areas of rain forest.     

热带雨林的孢粉垂直分布规律——以海南岛现代孢粉雨为例

热带地区环境变化对研究全球气候变化显得越来越重要,热带地区的古环境记录,特别是孢粉记录是恢复过去气候的重要方法,东亚热带地区在冰期－间冰期的气候影响下,生态环境主要表现为山地植被带的垂直升降,因此,定量恢复热带地区第四纪植被垂直移动的幅度,以及作为古气候的替代性指标进行数量化转换是热带地区孢粉研究的关键,然而,我国热带地区现代孢粉雨和植被的关系研究程度较低,给热带第四纪孢粉古生态的恢复和对比带来困难,本研究较系统地总结了海南岛从低地平原到五指山1860m的垂直植被带表土的孢粉散布规律,为热带地区孢粉古环境的重建提供了新的基础数据。研究结果表明,孢粉组合的变化与垂直植被带紧密相关,孢粉的多样性随海拔升高而降低,其中针叶类随海拔升高而增加,蕨类孢子则相应减少,在低地和低山丘陵,孢粉组合显示出为干扰的影响,如防风雨的主要树种木麻黄（Casuarina),行道树台湾相思（Acacia richii)和人为砍伐后大面积生长的芒箕（Dicranopteris)群落等在一些孢粉谱中特别高,尽管如此,孢粉组合反映的垂直植被带变化仍然是清楚的,海南岛由下至上可划分出5个表土孢粉组合带－低地人类强烈干扰带（＜400m):Mallotus,Casuarina,Pinus,Myrica,Palmae,Poaceaae,Dicranopteris:--低地质陵地带（400－800m):Quercus,Castanopsis,Mallotus,Myrica,Platea,Meliaceae和大量孢子（包括Dicranopteris);--山地下带（800-1200m):Castanopsis,Quercus,Podocarpus,Dacrydium,Cyathea和单缝孢子;－－山地上带（1200-1600m):Dacrydium,Pinus,Altingia,Quercus,Castanopsis;－－山顶带（＞1600m):Pinus,Rhododendron,Dacrydium,Symplocos.     

大陆东南亚(中南半岛)的主要森林植被类型介绍

大陆东南亚(中南半岛)的植被研究情况鲜为人知,至今仍无系统研究资料。该文依据数次对该地区的野外考察和资料收集,介绍了东南亚植被的研究情况和文献资料以及对该地区主要森林植被的分类和各主要植被类型的特征。大陆东南亚地区在植被分类上包括七个主要的陆生及湿地的森林植被类型:针叶林、针阔混交林、热带山地常绿阔叶林、热带雨林、热带季节性湿润林、热带季风林(季雨林)、干旱刺灌丛/萨王纳植被。其中,针叶林植被型包括温性针叶林和热性针叶林二个植被亚型;针阔混交林包括温性针阔混交林和暖温性针阔混交林二个亚型;热带雨林植被型包括热带低地常绿雨林、热带季节性雨林(热带低地半常绿雨林)、热带山地雨林及泥炭沼泽森林四个植被亚型。该文还对大陆东南亚地区植被研究历史、植被分类系统、类型特征及植物区系组成进行了讨论。     

论滇南西双版纳的森林植被分类

本文基于多年研究成果的总结,对西双版纳森林植被的分类、主要植被类型及其特征进行了系统归纳,并讨论了它们与世界类似热带森林植被的关系。以群落的生态外貌与结构、种类组成和生境特征相结合作为植被分类的原则和依据,可以将西双版纳的热带森林植被分类为热带雨林、热带季节性湿润林、热带季雨林和热带山地常绿阔叶林四个主要的植被型,包括有至少二十个群系。热带雨林包括热带季节雨林和热带山地(低山)雨林二个植被亚型。热带季节雨林具有与赤道低地热带雨林几乎一样的群落结构和生态外貌特征,是亚洲热带雨林的一个类型,但由于发生在季风热带北缘纬度和海拔的极限条件下,受到季节性干旱和热量不足的影响,在其林冠层中有一定比例的落叶树种存在,大高位芽植物和附生植物较逊色而藤本植物和在叶级谱上的小叶型植物更丰富,这些特征又有别于赤道低地的热带雨林。热带山地雨林是热带雨林的山地亚型,是该地区热带山地较湿润生境的一种森林类型,它在植物区系组成和生态外貌特征上类似于热带亚洲的低山雨林,隶属于广义热带雨林植被型下的低山雨林亚型。热带季节性湿润林分布在石灰岩山坡中、上部,在群落外貌上类似热带山地常绿阔叶林但在植物区系组成上与后者不同,它是石灰岩山地垂直带上的一种植被类型。热带季雨林是分布在该地区开阔河谷盆地及河岸受季风影响强烈的生境的一种热带落叶森林,是介于热带雨林与萨王纳之间的植被类型。热带山地常绿阔叶林(季风常绿阔叶林)是西双版纳的主要山地植被类型,它分布在热带季节雨林带之上偏干的山地生境。它在植物区系组成上不同于该地区的热带季节雨林,在生态外貌特征上亦不同于热带山地雨林,是发育在受地区性季风气候强烈影响的热带山地的一种森林植被类型。     

On the Classification of Forest Vegetation in Xishuangbanna,Southern Yunnnan

Xishuangbanna of southern Yunnan is a region of extremely interest to biologists and also a hotspot for biodiversity conservation . It is located in a transitional zone from tropical Southeast Asia to temperate East Asia biogeographically. The present paper reviewed vegetation types of Xishuangbanna and suggested a revised classification system based on theupdated study results over the last two decades . By combining physiognomic and floristic characteristics with ecological performances and habitats , the primary forest vegetation in Xishuangbanna can be organized into four main vegetation types: tropical rain forest, tropical seasonal moist forest, tropical montane evergreen broad-leaved forest and tropical monsoon forest. The tropical rain forest can be classified into two subtypes , i. e. tropical seasonal rain forest in the lowlands and tropical montane rain forest on higher elevations. The tropical seasonal rain forest in this region shows similar forest profile and physiognomic characteristics to those of equatorial lowland rain forests and is a type of world tropical rain forest. Because of conspicuous similarity on floristic composition , the tropical seasonal rain forest in Xishuangbanna is a type of tropical Asian rain forest . However , since the tropical seasonal rain forest occurs at the northern edge of tropical SE Asia, it differs from typical lowland rain forests in equatorial areas in maintaining some deciduous trees in the canopy layer , fewer megaphanerophytes and epiphytes but more abundant lianas and more plants with microphyll . It is a type of semi-evergreen rain forest at the northern edge of the tropical zone . The tropical montane rain forest occurs in wet montane habitats and is similar to the lower montane rain forests in equatorial Asia in floristic composition and physiognomy . It is a variety of lower montane rain forests at the northern tropical edges of tropical rain forests . The tropical seasonal moist forest occurs on middle and upper limestone mountains and is similar to the tropical montane evergreen broad-leaved forest of the region in physiognomy, but it differs from the latter in floristic composition. The monsoon forest in Xishuangbanna is a tropical deciduous forest under the influence of a strong monsoon climate and is considered to be a transitional vegetation type between tropical rain forest and savanna in physiognomy and distribution. The tropical montane evergreen broad- leaved forest is the main vegetation type in mountain areas . It is dominated by the tree species of Fagaceae , Euphorbiaceae , Theaceae and Lauraceae in majority. It differs from the tropical montane rain forests in lack of epiphytes and having more abundant lianas and plants with compound leaves . It is considered to be a distinct vegetation type in the northern margin of mainland southeastern Asia controlling by a strong monsoon climate, based on its floristic and physiognomic characteristics.     

Exotic vine invasions following cyclone disturbance in Australian Wet Tropics rainforests: A review

The Australian Wet Tropics region extends for almost 900 000 ha along the coastline of north‐east Queensland. The rainforests in this region have a rich and unique biodiversity and are World Heritage listed by UNESCO. Disturbance from tropical cyclones is a significant driver of the rainforest dynamics in this area, and when frequent or intense can facilitate the recruitment and expansion of exotic invasive species. Exotic vines are of particular concern for forest conservation as they can be highly competitive with native vegetation and may prevent forest regeneration. This literature review found evidence that fragmented forests, which are very common in the Australian Wet Tropics, are vulnerable to post‐cyclone vine invasion. In particular, although the diversity and abundance of herbaceous vines tend to decline as the canopy closes 2 years post‐cyclone disturbance, woody exotic vines and scramblers may persist for much longer or even increase in numbers. Since forest recovery in these systems is influenced by the severity and recurrence of disturbance, an increase in cyclone intensity under climate change may cause rapid changes in rainforest structure, composition and diversity, and increase exotic vine invasion. Post‐cyclone management of vines appears to require direct intervention, with manual cutting being currently the most effective method. However, there are a number of difficulties to its wide implementation in Australia, and further study on options for control is needed. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.     

利用孢粉记录定量重建大尺度古植被格局

 古植被定量重建是过去全球变化研究的重点之一, 生物群区化(Biomisation)方法以特征植物功能型来定义生物群区, 通过一种标准化数量方法计算孢粉谱的相似得分, 以此把孢粉谱转变为生物群区类型, 是进行古植被定量重建的一种有效方法。该文在前人综述文章的基础上, 简述了生物群区化方法定量重建古植被格局的发展历史、具体步骤及存在问题, 重点描述了以此方法为基础重建的全新世中期(MH)和末次盛冰期(LGM)的全球古植被分布格局, 以及中国的古植被定量重建工作和古植被格局变化。目前的研究表明, 全新世中期北极森林界线在某些地区有轻微的北移迹象, 北部的温带森林带通常向北远距离迁移, 欧洲的温带落叶林也大范围向地中海地区(向南)和向北扩展, 在北美内陆, 草原侵入到森林生物群区, 但中亚地区却没有此现象, 中国大陆的森林生物群区扩张, 典型撒哈尔植被(如干草原、干旱疏林灌丛和热带干旱森林)进入撒哈拉地区, 而非洲热带雨林却呈减少趋势; 末次盛冰期苔原和草原扩张, 在欧亚大陆北部逐渐混合, 北半球的森林生物群区向南迁移, 北方常绿森林(泰加林)和温带落叶林呈碎片状, 而欧洲和东亚的草原却大范围扩张, 非洲的热带湿润森林(比如热带雨林和热带季雨林)有所减少, 在北美洲的西南地区, 荒漠和草原被开阔针叶疏林所取代。     

Glacial and interglacial refugia within a long-term rainforest refugium: The Wet Tropics Bioregion of NE Queensland, Australia

An artificial neural network is used to classify environments, including climate, terrain and soil variables, according to their suitability for fifteen structural/environmental forest classes in the Wet Tropics Bioregion of north-east Queensland. We map the environments characteristic of these forest classes in four climate regimes (the present and three past climate scenarios), quantify the changes in area of these environments in response to past regional changes in climate and identify areas that would have been environmentally suitable for rainforests at last glacial maximum (glacial refugia). We also identify areas that would have been suitable for upland and highland rainforest classes during the warmest parts of the interglacial (interglacial refugia) and map locations that consistently remain favourable to specific forest classes despite large changes in climate.In the climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM), rainforest environments are predicted in three relatively distinct refugia in the northern, central and southern Wet Tropics. Only three percent of the total area contains lowland, Mesophyll Vine Forest and the majority of the area of the rainforest refugia supports upland rainforest classes. In the cool, wet climate of the Pleistocene/Holocene transition (PHT), rainforest environments expand to form a more or less continuous block from the northern limits of the region to the Walter Hill Range, except for discontinuous patches extending through the Seaview and Paluma Ranges in the south. During the Holocene climatic optimum (HCO), rainforest environments become more fragmented, especially in the south. Lowland rainforest environments are very extensive in this climate while upland rainforest classes are restricted to what we term “interglacial refugia”.Estimated distributions and stable locations (consistently predicted in all four climate scenarios) for the various rainforest environment classes are our main, novel contribution. Each forest environment responds individualistically to climate change. Our results confirm the highly dynamic nature of the Wet Tropics landscape and present a much more detailed picture of landscape change since the late Pleistocene than previously has been available. This mapping exercise should be useful in the future for analyses of present-day biogeographic patterns. We argue that empirical modelling approaches have an important role in palaeoecology and global change research that is complementary to the developing mechanistic methods.     

Extent and timing of floristic exchange between Australian and Asian rain forests

Aim We tested an entrenched concept – that the Australian rain forest flora is essentially a Gondwanan relict. We also assessed the role of regional‐level source–sink dynamics in the assembly of this flora. Location Eastern Australia. Methods To avoid potential biases inherent in selective studies undertaken to date, we used an analytical, whole‐of‐flora approach integrated with the fossil record. We identified disjunctions between woody Australian rain forest plant taxa and relatives on other land masses. To test the strength of the fossil evidence for the regional antiquity of this flora, we evaluated the proportion of these disjunct clades represented in the Australian fossil record, and to minimize the effects of biases in this record, we compared late Quaternary (i.e. late Pleistocene and Holocene, 126–0 ka), Pliocene and late Oligocene–early Miocene Australian pollen records interpreted as tropical rain forest. Using within‐species disjunctions as a proxy, we assessed the role of recent immigration from Asia into Australia. To assess the role of source–sink dynamics, we performed comparative analyses of disjunctions in major rain forest categories representing a north–south/climatic gradient. Results Southern Australian, cool temperate (microthermal) rain forests contain many floristic disjunctions with Gondwanan fragments and most of these clades have Gondwanan fossils. Disjunct clades in Australian mesothermal rain forest mostly occur in Asia/Malesia and a low proportion of these clades show pre‐Neogene records. Many clades in lowland tropical and ‘dry’ rain forest show disjunctions with Asia/Malesia and few have Australian fossil records. Rates of recent immigration from Asia/Malesia are high in these northern forests, and outweigh rates of recent emigration approximately nine‐fold. The late Quaternary fossil record has many more rain forest angiosperms than Oligocene–Miocene and Pliocene floras, consistent with extensive late Cenozoic immigration. Main conclusions The microthermal rain forests are largely Gondwanan relicts, but there is progressively greater, and more recent contribution from Asia/Malesia into more northern, and more lowland tropical rain forests. This variation reflects a strong gradient in geographic and ecological proximity between these forests and source floras in Asia/Malesia, and is consistent with a source–sink size model of immigration driven by late Cenozoic contractions and expansions of Australian rain forest.     

Early Pleistocene vegetation change in upland south‐eastern Australia

Aim This study aims to improve our understanding of the late Cenozoic history of Australian rain forest and sclerophyll biomes by presenting a detailed pollen record demonstrating the floristic composition and orbital‐scale patterns of change in forest communities of upland south‐eastern Australia, during the Early Pleistocene. The record is examined in order to shed light on the nature of the transition from rain forest‐dominated ‘Tertiary’ Australian vegetation to open‐canopied ‘Quaternary’ vegetation. Location Stony Creek Basin (144.13° E, 37.35° S, 550 m a.s.l), a small, infilled palaeolake in the western uplands of Victoria, Australia. Methods A c. 40‐m‐long sediment core was recovered from the infilled palaeolake. Palynology was used to produce a record of changing vegetation through time. Multivariate analyses provided a basis for interpreting the composition of rain forest and sclerophyll forest communities and for identifying changes in these communities over successive insolation cycles. Results Early Pleistocene upland south‐eastern Australian vegetation was characterized by orbital‐scale, cyclic alternation between rain forest and sclerophyll forests. Individual intervals of forest development underwent patterns of sequential taxon expansion that recurred in successive vegetation cycles. Diverse rain forests included a number of angiosperm and gymnosperm taxa now extinct regionally to globally. Sclerophyll forests were also diverse, and occurred under warm and wet climate conditions. Main conclusions The Stony Creek Basin record demonstrates that as recently as c. 1.5 Ma diverse rain forests persisted in southern Australia beyond the modern continental range of rain forest. The importance of conifers in these rain forests emphasizes that they have no modern Australian analogue. Alternation in dominance between these forests and diverse, sclerophyllous open canopied forests was apparently driven by changes in seasonality, and may have been promoted by fire.     

Vegetation cover of Brazil in the last 21 ka: New insights into the Amazonian refugia and Pleistocenic arc hypotheses

Aim

The two main hypotheses about the Neotropical palaeovegetation, namely that of Amazonian refugia by Haffer and of the Pleistocene arc by Prado and Gibbs, are still constantly debated. We offer new insights on this debate using ecological niche modelling with combined climate–soil predictors to test both hypotheses, reconstruct the palaeovegetation of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka) and Mid‐Holocene (Mid‐H; 6 ka) and indicate the configuration of refugia areas.

Location

Brazil.

Time period

Last 21 ka.

Major taxa studied

Biomes.

Methods

We modelled the environmental space of the 10 most representative biomes with the RandomForest classifier, using climate predictors from three atmospheric general circulation models (CCSM4, MPI‐ESM‐P and MIROC‐ESM) and soil predictors, the same for the different situations. Based on the consensus among the models, we reconstructed the palaeovegetation cover for LGM and Mid‐H and used fossil pollen sites to validate the reconstructions in a direct comparison.

Results

The climate in the past was cooler and wetter throughout most of the territory. The Amazon basin region was the most affected by climate change in the last 21 ka, with equatorial rain forest retracting to refugia areas, while the tropical rain forest (with climatic preferences similar to the Atlantic forest) expanded in the basin. In southern Brazil, the mixed forest (Araucaria forest) shifted to lower latitudes, while the grasslands expanded. In most biomes, the greatest changes occurred in the ecotonal zones, supported by pollen fossils.

Main conclusions

With regard to Haffer's hypothesis, the forests of the Amazonian lowlands retreated to refugia areas, while the colder and wetter climate of the basin created a favourable niche for another type of forest, instead of savanna. The advance of dry vegetation was restricted to ecotonal conditions, preventing the formation of a continuous Pleistocene arc, predicted by Prado and Gibbs's hypothesis.     

Mechanisms of rainforest persistence and recruitment in frequently burnt wet tropical eucalypt forests

The role of fire in governing rainforest–eucalypt forest ecotone dynamics is of theoretical interest and has conservation management implications. Several eucalypt forests in the Wet Tropics of Australia have an endangered status due to extensive conversion to rainforest. Rainforest plants are known to survive occasional low intensity fires in the eucalypt forest ecotone. However, the ability of rainforest plants to survive frequent fires remains untested. The timing of rainforest expansion is also a subject of interest, and is generally considered to be delayed until fire has been absent for several years. We used 14 years of data collected across 13 plots in the Wet Tropics of north‐eastern Australia to test predictions regarding rainforest seedling recruitment and post‐fire regenerative capacity. The 13 plots received different numbers of fires, between zero and five, over the 14‐year study. The recruitment of new rainforest plants in the ecotone was most abundant in the initial year after fire. If this post‐fire pulse of recruitment is left undisturbed, it can facilitate the subsequent germination of additional rainforest species. The removal of grass cover, whether temporarily in the immediate post‐fire environment or once a developing rainforest mid strata shades out grasses, appears crucial to abundant rainforest recruitment. A variety of tropical rainforest species can persist under a frequent fire regime through resprouting. The difference in the mode of resprouting, between ground‐level coppicing rainforest plants and canopy resprouting eucalypt forest trees, is the critical mechanism that causes regular fire to maintain an open structure in eucalypt forests. The inability of rainforest species to maintain their height when fires fully scorch their crowns, temporarily resets the forest's open structure and delays the rainforest's ability to dominate through shading out grasses to transform the ecosystem into a closed forest.