Do cyclones and forest fragmentation have synergistic effects? A before–after study of rainforest vegetation structure at multiple sites

Abstract Ecological degradation within areas of remnant forest may be amplified if the effects of fragmentation interact with the effects of other environmental disturbances such as wind storms. We used before–after comparisons to assess the effects of Tropical Cyclone Larry on remnant and continuous rainforest in the Wet Tropics uplands of north‐eastern Australia. Vegetation structure was measured 3 years before the cyclone and 6 months afterwards, at eight continuous forest sites and eight remnants (6–37 ha), within 20 km of the cyclone's track. The cyclone caused extensive defoliation, felling and breakage of stems and branches (greatest among the trees >100 cm diameter which had around 50% stem loss), and increased litter and woody debris. Cyclone effects were strongly influenced by a site's spatial position (P = 0.005, 0.001 in multivariate analyses of overall damage). Maximum damage occurred 10–15 km south of the cyclone track, perhaps because of the additive effects of the west‐moving air at the southern eyewall combined with the cyclone's own rapid westward movement. Most fragments were south of the cyclone track, as a consequence of spatially selective deforestation practices, and therefore, showed greatest damage. However, once the effects of spatial position were considered, the independent differences in cyclone effects between fragments and continuous forest were lost (P = 0.23, 0.41 when north‐south distance was included as a covariate in analyses). The expected protection afforded by a continuous forest canopy seems to have disappeared in the face of extremely strong cyclonic winds and down‐draughts. Nevertheless, an interaction between fragmentation and disturbance may yet occur, during the period of post‐cyclone recovery, owing to the effects of landscape context on plant recruitment. For example, there was a higher diversity of exotic seedling germination in fragments, independent of the extent of cyclone damage.     

Characteristics of the Psidium cattleianum invasion of secondary rainforests

Strawberry guava (Psidium cattleianum) is a shade‐tolerant shrub or small tree invader in tropical and subtropical regions and is considered among the world's top 100 worst invasive species. Studies from affected regions report deleterious effects of strawberry guava invasion on native vegetation. Here we examine the life history demographics and environmental determinants of strawberry guava invasions to inform effective weed management in affected rainforest regions. We surveyed the vegetation of 8 mature rainforest and 33 successional sites at various stages of regeneration in the Australian Wet Tropics and found that strawberry guava invasion was largely restricted to successional forests. Strawberry guava exhibited high stem and seedling densities, represented approximately 8% of all individual stems recorded and 20% of all seedlings recorded. The species also had the highest basal area among all the non‐native woody species measured. We compared environmental and community level effects between strawberry guava‐invaded and non‐invaded sites, and modelled how the species basal area and recruitment patterns respond to these effects. Invaded sites differed from non‐invaded sites in several environmental features such as aspect, distance from intact forest blocks, as well as supported higher grass and herb stem densities. Our analysis showed that invasion is currently ongoing in secondary forests, and also that strawberry guava is able to establish and persist under closed canopies. If left unchecked, strawberry guava invasion will have deleterious consequences for native regenerating forest in the Australian Wet Tropics.     

Monitoring and assessment of restoration of a rainforest remnant at Wingham Brush,NSW

Abstract Wingham Brush is a 9‐ha remnant of lowland subtropical rainforest, on mid‐north coast New South Wales, Australia, with high floristic diversity (about 200 species, more than 70 endemic trees and 27 endemic vines). A history of disturbance, environmental mismanagement and flooding from the Manning River resulted in many exotic species vigorously invading the rainforest. By the late 1970s weeds blanketed large sections of the forest, preventing regeneration of native species and destroying the canopy. By 1978 rainforest ecologists thought it ‘doubtful whether the rainforest could be saved from extinction.’ In 1980 a restoration program funded by the National Trust of Australia (NSW), used the Bradley Method of bush regeneration. However, this method did not consider the unique character of the rainforest community, which required the highest priority to be restoring the canopy. The National Herbarium of New South Wales became involved in 1984 as an independent agency to monitor the progress of the regeneration and assess the techniques being used, in particular the use of glyphosate. Monitoring provided evidence of beneficial change, showed how it occurred and has since been used as a basis for planning, documenting and assessing progress in rainforest regeneration. Reformation of the canopy allowed the forest floor to stabilize under a more constant microclimate, encouraging germination of shade‐loving rainforest species. Maximum and minimum temperature values demonstrated the buffering effect of the closed rainforest canopy. After 20 years, Wingham Brush has changed from a degraded forest, dominated by exotic vines, with many large gaps in the canopy, to a rainforest with an intact canopy, enlarged core forest area and reduced edge effect, that supports the diversity and structure of a healthy subtropical rainforest. Techniques developed in the ‘Wingham Brush Method’, have become the basis for restoration programs in other rainforest areas. The principles are: be canopy‐focused, be flexible, assess each site individually, and use techniques appropriate to problems encountered and goals of the long‐term program.     

Does biogeographical history matter? Diversity and distribution of lotic midges (Diptera: Chironomidae) in the Australian Wet Tropics

Abstract We examined broad scale patterns of diversity and distribution of lotic Chironomidae (Diptera) within the Wet Tropics bioregion of northern Queensland, Australia. Field surveys across broad latitudinal and altitudinal gradients within the Wet Tropics revealed a fauna of 87 species‐level taxa in 49 genera comprising three main elements: a small genuinely tropical fraction, and larger cosmopolitan and Gondwanan components. The latter group originated when Australia, as part of the ancient Gondwana supercontinent, was situated over Antarctic latitudes with a cooler, wetter climate than today. In the Wet Tropics, cool Gondwanan taxa occurred predominantly in upland and shaded lowland sites, but no species appeared narrowly temperature restricted, and there was no faunal zonation with altitude. Most chironomid species occurred at all latitudes within the Wet Tropics, with no evidence for an enduring effect of the historical rainforest contractions on current‐day distribution patterns. These findings contrast with those for aquatic faunas elsewhere in the world and for the terrestrial Wet Tropics fauna. We relate this to the generally broad environmental tolerances of Australian chironomids, and comment on why the latitudinal diversity gradient does not apply to the Australian chironomid fauna.     

Mechanisms of rainforest persistence and recruitment in frequently burnt wet tropical eucalypt forests

The role of fire in governing rainforest–eucalypt forest ecotone dynamics is of theoretical interest and has conservation management implications. Several eucalypt forests in the Wet Tropics of Australia have an endangered status due to extensive conversion to rainforest. Rainforest plants are known to survive occasional low intensity fires in the eucalypt forest ecotone. However, the ability of rainforest plants to survive frequent fires remains untested. The timing of rainforest expansion is also a subject of interest, and is generally considered to be delayed until fire has been absent for several years. We used 14 years of data collected across 13 plots in the Wet Tropics of north‐eastern Australia to test predictions regarding rainforest seedling recruitment and post‐fire regenerative capacity. The 13 plots received different numbers of fires, between zero and five, over the 14‐year study. The recruitment of new rainforest plants in the ecotone was most abundant in the initial year after fire. If this post‐fire pulse of recruitment is left undisturbed, it can facilitate the subsequent germination of additional rainforest species. The removal of grass cover, whether temporarily in the immediate post‐fire environment or once a developing rainforest mid strata shades out grasses, appears crucial to abundant rainforest recruitment. A variety of tropical rainforest species can persist under a frequent fire regime through resprouting. The difference in the mode of resprouting, between ground‐level coppicing rainforest plants and canopy resprouting eucalypt forest trees, is the critical mechanism that causes regular fire to maintain an open structure in eucalypt forests. The inability of rainforest species to maintain their height when fires fully scorch their crowns, temporarily resets the forest's open structure and delays the rainforest's ability to dominate through shading out grasses to transform the ecosystem into a closed forest.     

Deeply divergent mitochondrial lineages reveal patterns of local endemism in chironomids of the Australian Wet Tropics

The Wet Tropics bioregion of north‐eastern Australia has been subject to extensive fluctuations in climate throughout the late Pliocene and Pleistocene. Cycles of rainforest contraction and expansion of dry sclerophyll forest associated with such climatic fluctuations are postulated to have played a major role in driving geographical endemism in terrestrial rainforest taxa. Consequences for the distributions of aquatic organisms, however, are poorly understood. The Australian non‐biting midge species Echinocladius martini Cranston (Diptera: Chironomidae), although restricted to cool, well‐forested freshwater streams, has been considered to be able to disperse among populations located in isolated rainforest pockets during periods of sclerophyllous forest expansion, potentially limiting the effect of climatic fluctuations on patterns of endemism. In this study, mitochondrial COI and 16S data were analysed for E. martini collected from eight sites spanning the Wet Tropics bioregion to assess the scale and extent of phylogeographic structure. Analyses of genetic structure showed several highly divergent cryptic lineages with restricted geographical distributions. Within one of the identified lineages, strong genetic structure implied that dispersal among proximate (<1 km apart) streams was extremely restricted. The results suggest that vicariant processes, most likely due to the systemic drying of the Australian continent during the Plio‐Pleistocene, might have fragmented historical E. martini populations and, hence, promoted divergence in allopatry.     

Can changes in ant diversity along elevational gradients in tropical and subtropical Australian rainforests be used to detect a signal of past lowland biotic attrition?

Increasing temperatures are predicted to have profound effects on montane ecosystems. In tropical forests, biotic attrition may reduce lowland diversity if losses of species due to upslope range shifts are not matched by influxes of warmer‐adapted species, either because there are none or their dispersal is impeded. Australian rainforests consist of a north–south chain of patches, broken by dry corridors that are barriers to the dispersal of rainforest species. These rainforests have repeatedly contracted and expanded during Quaternary glacial cycles. Many lowland rainforests are expansions since the Last Glacial Maximum and may, therefore, show a signal of historical biotic attrition. We surveyed ants from replicated sites along three rainforest elevational transects in eastern Australia spanning 200 to 1200 m a.s.l. and nearly 14° of latitude. We examined elevational patterns of ant diversity and if there was possible evidence of lowland biotic attrition. Each transect was in a different biogeographic region; the Australian Wet Tropics (16.3°S), the central Queensland coast (21.1°S) and subtropical south‐eastern Queensland (28.1°S). We calculated ant species density (mean species per site) and species richness (estimated number of species by incorporating site‐to‐site species turnover) within elevational bands. Ant species density showed no signal of lowland attrition and was high at low and mid‐elevations and declined only at high elevations at all transects. Similarly, estimated species richness showed no evidence of lowland attrition in the Wet Tropics and subtropical south‐east Queensland; species richness peaked at low elevations and declined monotonically with increasing elevation. Persistence of lowland rainforest refugia in the Wet Tropics during the Last Glacial Maximum and latitudinal range shifts of ants in subtropical rainforests during the Holocene climatic optimum may have counteracted lowland biotic attrition. In central Queensland, however, estimated richness was similar in the lowlands and mid‐elevations, and few ant species were indicative of lower elevations. This may reflect historical biotic attrition due perhaps to a lack of lowland glacial refugia and the isolation of this region by a dry forest barrier to the north.     

Landscape‐scale impacts of Cyclone Larry on the forests of northeast Australia,including comparisons with previous cyclones impacting the region between 1858 and 2006

Abstract Cyclone Larry (category 4) was the most severe cyclone to impact on the Wet Tropics bioregion since the devastating 1918 Innisfail cyclone. Based on an analysis of earlier cyclones impacting on this region over the period 1856–2006, it was determined that Larry was a ‘1 in 50 year’ event. This paper provides an overview of the landscape‐scale impacts of Larry on the forest ecosystems of the Wet Tropics region, based on low‐level helicopter surveys 2 weeks after the event. Cyclone Larry has been described as a ‘midget’ cyclone. Severe forest damage only extended about 30 km from the central track of the cyclone while moderate to severe damage extended some 50 km. Moderate to slight canopy disturbance was rarely identified more than 75 km from the centre of the cyclone's track. Beyond 75 km, forest damage was restricted to exposed areas of elevated terrain and in places exposed to strong lee (gravity) waves from the west. The ecological role of cyclones as important disturbance agents affecting the structure and function of forest ecosystems in the region is discussed, followed by an evaluation of likely effects of climate change on cyclone frequency and intensity.     

Without management interventions,endemic wet‐sclerophyll forest is transitioning to rainforest in World Heritage listed K’gari (Fraser Island), Australia

Wet‐sclerophyll forests are unique ecosystems that can transition to dry‐sclerophyll forests or to rainforests. Understanding of the dynamics of these forests for conservation is limited. We evaluated the long‐term succession of wet‐sclerophyll forest on World Heritage listed K'gari (Fraser Island)—the world's largest sand island. We recorded the presence and growth of tree species in three 0.4 hectare plots that had been subjected to selective logging, fire, and cyclone disturbance over 65 years, from 1952 to 2017. Irrespective of disturbance regimes, which varied between plots, rainforest trees recruited at much faster rates than the dominant wet‐sclerophyll forest trees, narrowly endemic species Syncarpia hillii and more common Lophostemon confertus. Syncarpia hillii did not recruit at the plot with the least disturbance and recruited only in low numbers at plots with more prominent disturbance regimes in the ≥10 cm at breast height size. Lophostemon confertus recruited at all plots but in much lower numbers than rainforest trees. Only five L. confertus were detected in the smallest size class (<10 cm diameter) in the 2017 survey. Overall, we find evidence that more pronounced disturbance regimes than those that have occurred over the past 65 years may be required to conserve this wet‐sclerophyll forest, as without intervention, transition to rainforest is a likely trajectory. Fire and other management tools should therefore be explored, in collaboration with Indigenous landowners, to ensure conservation of this wet‐sclerophyll forest.     

Mitigating the impacts of rainforest roads in Queensland’s Wet Tropics: Effective or are further evaluations and new mitigation strategies required?

Summary Research into mitigation of the ecological impacts of rainforest roads in North Queensland has a long history, commencing during the formative years of Australian road ecology. In Queensland’s Wet Tropics and throughout Australia, installation of engineered structures to ameliorate ecological road impacts is now common during larger construction projects, but unusual in smaller road projects. Retro‐fitting of engineering solutions to roads that are causing obvious impacts is also uncommon. Currently, Australian mitigation measures concentrate on two important impacts: road mortality and terrestrial habitat fragmentation. Unfortunately, other important ecological impacts of roads are seldom addressed. These include edge effects, traffic disturbance, exotic invasions and fragmentation of stream habitats. In North Queensland, faunal underpasses and canopy bridges across rainforest roads have been monitored over long periods. These structures are used frequently by multiple individuals of various species, implying effectiveness for movements and dispersal of many generalist and specialised rainforest animals. However, without addressing population and genetic implications, assessment of effectiveness of these connectivity structures is not holistic. These aspects need sufficient long‐term funding to allow similar systematic monitoring before and after construction. Throughout Australia, more holistic approaches to mitigation of road impacts would routinely examine population and genetic connectivity, consider mitigation against more ecological impacts where appropriate and include landscape‐scale replication.     

Recruitment dynamics of invasive species in rainforest habitats following Cyclone Larry

Abstract In tropical forests, natural disturbance creates opportunities for species to claim previously utilized space and resources and is considered an important mechanism in the maintenance of species diversity. However, ecologists have long recognized that disturbance also promotes exotic plant invasions. Cyclones cause extensive defoliation, loss of major branches and multiple tree falls, resulting in a significantly more open canopy and increased light and heat levels in the understorey. The widespread and massive disturbance caused by cyclones provides ideal conditions for rapid recruitment and spread of invasive species. The ecological roles of invasive species in rainforest habitats following such a severe disturbance are poorly understood. Severe category 4 Cyclone Larry crossed the North Queensland coast in March 2006 causing massive disturbance to rainforest habitats from Tully to Cairns and west to the Atherton Tablelands. We established 10 plots in an area extensively damaged by this cyclone near El Arish in North Queensland. On each plot nine 2 × 2 m quadrats were established with three quadrats per plot in each of the following treatments: (i) complete debris removal down to the soil layer, (ii) removal of coarse woody debris only, and (iii) uncleared. We monitored recruitment, growth and mortality of all native and invasive species in the 90 quadrats every 3 months since the cyclone. Here we present the recruitment dynamics of invasive species across the study area in relation to the level of disturbance, the type of quadrat treatment, and the diversity and abundance of the native recruiting flora over the first 12 months post‐cyclone. Our results suggest that invasive species will mostly comprise a transient component of the flora in the early stages of the successional response. However, some species may have longer‐term effects on the successional trajectory of the rainforest and future forest composition and structure.     

Immigrants and refugees: the importance of dispersal in mediating biotic attrition under climate change

Montane tropical rainforests are critically important areas for global bird diversity, but are projected to be highly vulnerable to contemporary climate change. Upslope shifts of lowland species may partially offset declines in upland species but also result in a process of lowland biotic attrition. This latter process is contingent on the absence of species adapted to novel warm climates, and isolation from pools of potential colonizers. In the Australian Wet Tropics, species distribution modelling has forecast critical declines in suitable environmental area for upland endemic birds, raising the question of the future role of both natural and assisted dispersal in species survival, but information is lacking for important neighbouring rainforest regions. Here we use expanded geographic coverage of data to model the realized distributions of 120 bird species found in north‐eastern Australian rainforest, including species from potential source locations in the north and recipient locations in the south. We reaffirm previous conclusions as to the high vulnerability of this fauna to global warming, and extend the list of species whose suitable environmental area is projected to decrease. However, we find that expansion of suitable area for some species currently restricted to northern rainforests has the potential to offset biotic attrition in lowland forest of the Australian Wet Tropics. By examining contrasting dispersal scenarios, we show that responses to climate change in this region may critically depend on dispersal limitation, as climate change shifts the suitable environmental envelopes of many species south into currently unsuitable habitats. For lowland and northern species, future change in vegetation connectivity across contemporary habitat barriers is likely to be an important mediator of climate change impacts. In contrast, upland species are projected to become increasingly isolated and restricted. Their survival is likely to be more dependent on the viability of assisted migration, and the emergence and persistence of suitable environments at recipient locations.     

Development of eight polymorphic microsatellites for an Australasian rainforest tree species,Cryptocarya mackinnoniana (Lauraceae)

We developed eight microsatellite markers for Cryptocarya mackinnoniana to study the spatial genetic structure and ecological correlates of parentage in secondary rainforests in Australia's Wet Tropics. The microsatellite loci were screened in 99 trees, and 623 seedlings < 0.24 m tall, at a site extending from primary rainforest into adjacent 50‐year‐old secondary rainforest. The eight loci were polymorphic, exhibiting between three and 11 alleles, and gene diversity (H_E) from 0.25 to 0.84. For the trees, no departures from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium were detected, except at locus Cm03, which had an estimated null allele frequency of 0.0903. No locus combinations exhibited linkage disequilibrium.     

Stream macroinvertebrate assemblage uniformity and drivers in a tropical bioregion

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And the beak shall inherit – evolution in response to invasion

The increased demographic performance of biological invaders may often depend on their escape from specifically adapted enemies. Here we report that native taxa in colonized regions may swiftly evolve to exploit such emancipated exotic species because of selection caused by invaders. A native Australian true bug has expanded it host range to include a vine imported from tropical America that has become a serious environmental weed. Based on field comparisons and historical museum specimens, we show that over the past 30–40 years, seed feeding soapberry bugs have evolved 5–10% longer mouthparts, better suited to attack the forest‐invading balloon vines, which have large fruits. Laboratory experiments show that these differences are genetically based, and result in a near‐doubling of the rate at which seeds are attacked. Thus a native biota that initially permits invasion may rapidly respond in ways that ultimately facilitate control.     

Impacts of changed fire regimes on tropical riparian vegetation invaded by an exotic vine

Abstract Riparian habitats are highly important ecosystems for tropical biodiversity, and highly threatened ecosystems through changing disturbance regimes and weed invasion. An experimental study was conducted to assess the ecosystem impacts of fire regimes introduced for the removal of the exotic woody vine, Cryptostegia grandiflora, in tropical north‐eastern Australian woodlands. Experimental sites in subcatchments of the Burdekin River, northern Queensland, Australia, were subjected to combinations of early wet‐season and dry‐season fires, and single and repeated fires, with an unburnt control. Woody vegetation was sampled using permanent quadrats to record and monitor plants species, number and size‐class. Sampling was conducted pre‐fire in 1999 and post‐fire in 2002. All fire regimes were effective in reducing the number and biomass of C. grandiflora shrubs and vines. Few woodland or riparian species were found to be fire‐sensitive and community composition did not change markedly under any fire regime. The more intense dry‐season fires impacted the structure of non‐target vegetation, with large reductions in the number of sapling trees (<5 cm d.b.h.) and reductions in the largest tree size‐class and total tree basal area. Unexpectedly, medium‐sized canopy trees (10–30 cm d.b.h.) appear to have been significantly benefited by fires, with decreases in number of trees of this size‐class in the absence of fire. Although the presence of C. grandiflora as a vine in riparian forest canopies changed the nature and intensity of crown combustion patterns, this did not lead to the initiation of a self‐perpetuating weed–fire cycle, as invaders were unable to take advantage of gaps caused by fire. Low intensity, early wet‐season burning, or early dry‐season burning, is recommended for control of C. grandiflora in order to minimize the fire intensity and risk of the loss of large habitat trees in riparian habitats.     

Recovery of mammal diversity in tropical forests: a functional approach to measuring restoration

Ecological restoration is increasingly applied in tropical forests to mitigate biodiversity loss and recover ecosystem functions. In restoration ecology, functional richness, rather than species richness, often determines community assembly, and measures of functional diversity provide a mechanistic link between diversity and ecological functioning of restored habitat. Vertebrate animals are important for ecosystem functioning. Here, we examine the functional diversity of small‐to‐medium sized mammals to evaluate the diversity and functional recovery of tropical rainforest. We assess how mammal species diversity and composition and functional diversity and composition, vary along a restoration chronosequence from degraded pasture to “old‐growth” tropical rainforest in the Wet Tropics of Australia. Species richness, diversity, evenness, and abundance did not vary, but total mammal biomass and mean species body mass increased with restoration age. Species composition in restoration forests converged on the composition of old‐growth rainforest and diverged from pasture with increasing restoration age. Functional metrics provided a clearer pattern of recovery than traditional species metrics, with most functional metrics significantly increasing with restoration age when taxonomic‐based metrics did not. Functional evenness and dispersion increased significantly with restoration age, suggesting that niche complementarity enhances species' abundances in restored sites. The change in community composition represented a functional shift from invasive, herbivorous, terrestrial habitat generalists and open environment specialists in pasture and young restoration sites, to predominantly endemic, folivorous, arboreal, and fossorial forest species in older restoration sites. This shift has positive implications for conservation and demonstrates the potential of tropical forest restoration to recover rainforest‐like, diverse faunal communities.     

Landscape Patterns in Rainforest Phylogenetic Signal: Isolated Islands of Refugia or Structured Continental Distributions?

Objectives

Identify patterns of change in species distributions, diversity, concentrations of evolutionary history, and assembly of Australian rainforests.

Methods

We used the distribution records of all known rainforest woody species in Australia across their full continental extent. These were analysed using measures of species richness, phylogenetic diversity (PD), phylogenetic endemism (PE) and phylogenetic structure (net relatedness index; NRI). Phylogenetic structure was assessed using both continental and regional species pools. To test the influence of growth-form, freestanding and climbing plants were analysed independently, and in combination.

Results

Species richness decreased along two generally orthogonal continental axes, corresponding with wet to seasonally dry and tropical to temperate habitats. The PE analyses identified four main areas of substantially restricted phylogenetic diversity, including parts of Cape York, Wet Tropics, Border Ranges, and Tasmania. The continental pool NRI results showed evenness (species less related than expected by chance) in groups of grid cells in coastally aligned areas of species rich tropical and sub-tropical rainforest, and in low diversity moist forest areas in the south-east of the Great Dividing Range and in Tasmania. Monsoon and drier vine forests, and moist forests inland from upland refugia showed phylogenetic clustering, reflecting lower diversity and more relatedness. Signals for evenness in Tasmania and clustering in northern monsoon forests weakened in analyses using regional species pools. For climbing plants, values for NRI by grid cell showed strong spatial structuring, with high diversity and PE concentrated in moist tropical and subtropical regions.

Conclusions/Significance

Concentrations of rainforest evolutionary history (phylo-diversity) were patchily distributed within a continuum of species distributions. Contrasting with previous concepts of rainforest community distribution, our findings of continuous distributions and continental connectivity have significant implications for interpreting rainforest evolutionary history and current day ecological processes, and for managing rainforest diversity in changing circumstances.     

Glacial and interglacial refugia within a long-term rainforest refugium: The Wet Tropics Bioregion of NE Queensland, Australia

An artificial neural network is used to classify environments, including climate, terrain and soil variables, according to their suitability for fifteen structural/environmental forest classes in the Wet Tropics Bioregion of north-east Queensland. We map the environments characteristic of these forest classes in four climate regimes (the present and three past climate scenarios), quantify the changes in area of these environments in response to past regional changes in climate and identify areas that would have been environmentally suitable for rainforests at last glacial maximum (glacial refugia). We also identify areas that would have been suitable for upland and highland rainforest classes during the warmest parts of the interglacial (interglacial refugia) and map locations that consistently remain favourable to specific forest classes despite large changes in climate.In the climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM), rainforest environments are predicted in three relatively distinct refugia in the northern, central and southern Wet Tropics. Only three percent of the total area contains lowland, Mesophyll Vine Forest and the majority of the area of the rainforest refugia supports upland rainforest classes. In the cool, wet climate of the Pleistocene/Holocene transition (PHT), rainforest environments expand to form a more or less continuous block from the northern limits of the region to the Walter Hill Range, except for discontinuous patches extending through the Seaview and Paluma Ranges in the south. During the Holocene climatic optimum (HCO), rainforest environments become more fragmented, especially in the south. Lowland rainforest environments are very extensive in this climate while upland rainforest classes are restricted to what we term “interglacial refugia”.Estimated distributions and stable locations (consistently predicted in all four climate scenarios) for the various rainforest environment classes are our main, novel contribution. Each forest environment responds individualistically to climate change. Our results confirm the highly dynamic nature of the Wet Tropics landscape and present a much more detailed picture of landscape change since the late Pleistocene than previously has been available. This mapping exercise should be useful in the future for analyses of present-day biogeographic patterns. We argue that empirical modelling approaches have an important role in palaeoecology and global change research that is complementary to the developing mechanistic methods.     

Assessing regulating and provisioning ecosystem services in a contrasting tropical forest landscape

Ecosystem services are the bridge between nature and society, and are essential elements of community well-being. The Wet Tropics Australia, is environmentally and biologically diverse, and supplies numerous ecosystem services. It contributes to the community well-being of this region, Australian national economy and global climate change mitigation efforts. However, the ecosystem services in the region have rarely been assessed undermining strategic landscape planning to sustain their future flow. In this study, we attempted to: (i) assess the quantity of five regulating ecosystem services – global climate regulation, air quality regulation, erosion regulation, nutrient regulation, and cyclone protection, and three provisioning ecosystem services – habitat provision, energy provision and timber provision across rainforests, sclerophyll forests and rehabilitated plantation forests; (ii) evaluate the variation of supply of those regulating and provisioning ecosystem services across environmental gradients, such as rainfall, temperature, and elevation; (iii) show the relationships among those ecosystem services; and (iv) identify the hotspots of single and multiple ecosystem services supply across the landscape. The results showed that rainforests possess a very high capacity to supply single and multiple ecosystem services, and the hotspots for most of the regulating and provisioning ecosystem services are found in upland rainforest followed by lowland rainforest, and upland sclerophyll forest. Elevation, rainfall and temperature gradients along with forest structure are the main determinant factors for the quantity of ecosystem services supplied across the three forest types. The correlation among ecosystem services may be positive or negative depending on the ecosystem service category and vegetation type. The rehabilitated plantation forests may provide some ecosystem services comparable to the rainforest. The results demonstrated disturbance regimes (such as tropical cyclones) may have influenced the usual spatial trend of ecosystem service values. This study will assist decision makers in incorporating ecosystem services into their natural resource management planning, and for practitioners to identify the areas with higher values of specific and multiple ecosystem services.