The Process and Causes of Fledging in a Cavity-Nesting Passerine Bird, the House Wren (Troglodytes aedon)

Little is known about the process or causes of fledging or nest‐leaving in passerine birds because researchers can rarely predict when fledging will occur in a given nest. We used continuous videotaping of nests to both document the process of fledging in the house wren, Troglodytes aedon, a small, cavity‐nesting songbird, and test hypotheses as to what might cause fledging to begin. Fledging began any time from 14 to 19 d after hatching commenced. Slower‐developing broods fledged later than faster‐developing broods. Fledging typically began within 5 h of sunrise and over 80% of all nestlings fledged before noon. All nestlings fledged on the same day at 65% of nests and over two consecutive days in most other nests. We found no evidence that fledging was triggered by changes in parental behaviour. Parental rate of food delivery to nestlings did not decline during a 3‐h period leading up to the first fledging, nor was the rate of feeding just prior to the first fledging lower than the rate at the same time the day before. Moreover, parents did not slow the rate of food delivery to nests after part of the brood had fledged. Hatching is asynchronous in our study population which creates a marked age/size hierarchy within broods. At most nests, the first nestling to fledge was the most well‐developed nestling in the brood or nearly so (as measured by feather length). This suggests that fledging typically begins when the most well‐developed nestlings in the brood reach some threshold size. However, at about one‐fifth of nests, the first nestling to fledge was only moderate in size. At these nests, severe competition for food may have caused smaller, less competitive nestlings to fledge first to increase their access to food. We found no strong support for the suggestion that the oldest nestlings delay fledging until their least‐developed nestmate reaches some minimum size, although further experimental work on this question is warranted.     

Do parents play a role in the timing and process of fledging by nestling Mountain Bluebirds?

What causes young birds to leave nests remains unclear for almost all altricial species. For many years, the assumption was that parents often controlled the time of fledging by coaxing young from nests, e.g., by holding food within view, but out of reach, of nestlings. This assumption, though, was based solely on scattered anecdotal reports of such behavior. We used continuous video‐recording of nests to assess the role of parents, if any, in the timing and process of fledging of cavity‐nesting Mountain Bluebirds (Sialis currucoides). We placed perches ~50 cm in front of nest‐box entrances to give parents ample opportunity to display food to nestlings. We found no evidence that parents routinely initiated the fledging process. On the day of fledging, parents did not perch on supplemental perches with food more often, or for longer periods of time, than on the day before fledging. Also, after going to nest‐box entrances, parents never held food away from a nestling reaching for the food. Parents were usually absent (16 of 19 cases) when the first nestling fledged. In the remaining three cases, a parent perched with food in view of a nestling for 8, 15 and 65 s, respectively, just before that nestling fledged. Although these might have appeared to be attempts at coaxing, in each case, the parent was encountering, for the first time, a nestling partially emerging from the nest entrance. Parents may simply have hesitated to approach nests because the nestling's position prevented parents from delivering food in the normal manner. Finally, the rate at which parents fed nestlings on the day of fledging did not differ from the rate the day before, suggesting that parents do not try to use hunger to induce fledging. Our results are consistent with previous research suggesting that, in Mountain Bluebirds, it is a nestling that initiates fledging, typically when it reaches some threshold state of development.     

Behavior of adult and young grassland songbirds at fledging

The behavior of adults and young at the time of fledging is one of the least understood aspects of the breeding ecology of birds. Current hypotheses propose that fledging occurs either as a result of parent‐offspring conflict or nestling choice. We used video recordings to monitor the behavior of nestling and adult grassland songbirds at the time of fledging. We observed 525 nestlings from 166 nests of 15 bird species nesting in grasslands of Alberta, Canada, and Wisconsin, USA. Overall, 78% of nestlings used terrestrial locomotion for fledging and 22% used wing‐assisted locomotion. Species varied in propensity for using wing‐assisted locomotion when fledging, with nestling Grasshopper Sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum) and Henslow's Sparrows (Centronyx henslowii) often doing so (47% of fledgings) and nestling Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia), Common Yellowthroats (Geothlypis trichas), and Chestnut‐collared Longspurs (Calcarius ornatus) rarely doing so (3.5% of fledgings). For 390 fledging events at 127 nests, camera placement allowed adults near nests to be observed. Of these, most young fledged (81.5%) when no adult was present at nests. Of 72 fledging events that occurred when an adult was either at or approaching a nest, 49 (68.1%) involved feeding. Of those 49 fledgings, 30 (62.1%) occurred when one or more nestlings jumped or ran from nests to be fed as an adult approached nests. The low probability of nestlings fledging while an adult was at nests, and the tendency of young to jump or run from nests when adults did approach nests with food minimize opportunities for parents to withhold food to motivate nestlings to fledge. These results suggest that the nestling choice hypothesis best explains fledging by nestlings of ground‐nesting grassland songbirds, and fledging results in families shifting from being place‐based to being mobile and spatially dispersed.     

Perching of Tengmalm's Owl (Aegolius funereus) Nestlings at the Nest Box Entrance: Effect of Time of the Day,Age, Wing Length and Body Weight

The behaviour of the nestlings of nocturnal cavity-nesting species has relatively rarely been studied in detail because of problems connected with use of the technical devices required to provide long-term monitoring of individuals. However, long-term observation of nestling behaviour is crucial in order to identify different types of behaviour which may be caused by sibling competition at the end of nesting period. We studied behaviour of 43 Tengmalm''s owl (Aegolius funereus) nestlings at 14 nests using a camera and a chip system. The nestlings perched at the nest box entrance from an average age of 28 days from hatching (range 24–34 days) until fledging, spending around 2 hours per day here in total, in periods ranging from a few seconds to 147 min (7.6±10.9 min, mean ± SD). We found that individual duration of perching at the nest box entrance was significantly influenced by nestlings'' age and wing length and that the duration of perching at the nest box entrance significantly decreased with time of night. However, during daylight hours, time of day had no effect on either probability or duration of nestlings'' perching. We suggest daylight perching at the nest box entrance results from nestlings'' preparation for fledging, while individuals perching here during the night may gain an advantageous position for obtaining food from the parents; another possibility at all times of day is that nestlings can reaffirm their social dominance status by monopolizing the nest box entrance.     

The effects of force‐fledging and premature fledging on the survival of nestling songbirds

Despite the broad consensus that force‐fledging of nestling songbirds lowers their probability of survival and therefore should be generally avoided by researchers, that presumption has not been tested. We used radiotelemetry to monitor the survival of fledglings of Ovenbirds Seiurus aurocapilla and Golden‐winged Warblers Vermivora chrysoptera that we unintentionally force‐fledged (i.e. nestlings left the nest in response to our research activities at typical fledging age), that fledged prematurely (i.e. nestlings left the nest earlier than typical fledging age), and that fledged independently of our activities. Force‐fledged Ovenbirds experienced significantly higher survival than those that fledged independent of our activities, and prematurely fledged Ovenbirds had a similarly high survival to those that force‐fledged at typical fledging age. We observed a similar, though not statistically significant, pattern in Golden‐winged Warbler fledgling survival. Our results suggest that investigator‐induced force‐fledging of nestlings, even when deemed premature, does not necessarily result in reduced fledgling survival in these species. Instead, our results suggest that a propensity or ability to fledge in response to disturbance may be a predictor of a higher probability of fledgling survival.     

Behavioural responses to ectoparasites in pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca: an experimental study

Nests of cavity‐nesting birds usually harbor some species of haematophagous ectoparasites that feed on the incubating adults and nestlings. Given the negative impact of ectoparasites on nestlings there will be selection on hosts to reduce parasite infestations through behavioural means. We have experimentally reduced the abundance of all ectoparasites in nests of pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca to explore both whether there are changes in the frequency and duration of putative anti‐parasite behaviours by tending adults, as well as whether such anti‐parasite behaviours are able to compensate for the deleterious effects that parasites may have on nestlings. Heat treatment of nests substantially decreased the density of ectoparasites, and thereby positively affected nestling growth. The frequency and intensity of female grooming and nest sanitation behaviours during the incubation and nestling periods decreased as a consequence of the experimental reduction of ectoparasite infestation. Although nestlings begged more intensely in infested nests, the experiment had no significant effect on parental provisioning effort. Reduction of parasites resulted in larger nestlings shortly before fledging and increased fledging success. This study shows a clear effect of a complete natural nest ectoparasite fauna on parental behaviour at the nest and nestling growth in a cavity‐nesting bird. Although ectoparasites induce anti‐parasite behaviours in females, these behaviours are not able to fully remove parasite's deleterious effects on nestling growth and survival.     

Philornis infection in blue‐black grassquits: impact on nestlings and risk factors involved

Parasitic botfly larvae (Philornis ssp., Diptera: Muscidae) are found in nests of several bird taxa, although prevalence and impact on nestling survival vary considerably among species. Here we describe patterns of botfly infestation in blue‐black grassquit Volatinia jacarina nestlings. We identified the most typically affected nestling body parts and assessed parasite prevalence, impact on nestling survival, and changes in nestling body shape. Additionally, we tested whether climatic conditions, nest morphology and habitat characteristics are associated with larvae abundance. Blue‐black grassquits had low breeding success (16% of eggs/nestlings survived to fledged; 19% of the nests fledged at least one), but most failures resulted from predation by vertebrate predators. We estimated that 1% of nestlings died due to botfly infestation, and the number of subcutaneous larvae (range 1–18) in a nestling's body did not predict fledging success. Infected chicks exhibited higher tarsus asymmetry. Thus, we argue that although botflies had a small impact on offspring survival, they may reduce fitness in adulthood. There was no evidence that environmental conditions and nest morphology are linked to the number of larvae on nestlings. Nesting areas with higher food supply had lower infestation rates. Possibly, food‐rich habitats allow parents to invest more time in offspring care (brooding nestlings), thus protecting them from fly attacks. Alternatively, vegetation composition could influence local invertebrate diversity, which could provide a natural trophic buffer against adult Philornis. The present study brings to light new perspectives concerning bird–botfly interaction.     

Male parental care promotes early fledging in an open-nester, the Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus

The importance of male parental care to female reproductive success was investigated in the monogamous Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus by removing the male parent at two different stages of the breeding cycle. Females that were widowed at the start of egg-laying continued breeding and managed to raise their brood on their own with no apparent reductions in numbers fledged or fledgling body-mass. The widowed females compensated for the loss of male assistance by increasing their own food provisioning rate as compared with control females. However, widows spent less time brooding the small young, and the growth rate of nestlings was reduced. In nests where the male parent was removed 7 days after the eggs hatched, the subsequent growth rate of nestlings was still affected, which suggests that male care is influential throughout the nestling period. On average, broods reared by widows fledged 2 days later than did broods of control females. An extension of the nestling period may appreciably affect reproductive success, since 68% of nests failed due to predation, mostly during the nestling period. We suggest that the main role of male parental care in the Willow Warbler is to assure a high growth rate of nestlings, which leads to early fledging and hence a reduced risk of nest predation.     

Females compensate for moult‐associated male nest desertion in Hooded Warblers

Uniparental offspring desertion occurs in a wide variety of avian taxa and usually reflects sexual conflict over parental care. In many species, desertion yields immediate reproductive benefits for deserters if they can re‐mate and breed again during the same nesting season; in such cases desertion may be selectively advantageous even if it significantly reduces the fitness of the current brood. However, in many other species, parents desert late‐season offspring when opportunities to re‐nest are absent. In these cases, any reproductive benefits of desertion are delayed, and desertion is unlikely to be advantageous unless the deserted parent can compensate for the loss of its partner and minimize costs to the current brood. We tested this parental compensation hypothesis in Hooded Warblers Setophaga citrina, a species in which males regularly desert late‐season nestlings and fledglings during moult. Females from deserted nests effectively doubled their provisioning efforts, and nestlings from deserted nests received just as much food, gained mass at the same rate, and were no more likely to die from either complete nest predation or brood reduction as young from biparental nests. The female provisioning response, however, was significantly related to nestling age; females undercompensated for male desertion when the nestlings were young, but overcompensated as nestlings approached fledging age, probably because of time constraints that brooding imposed on females with young nestlings. Overall, our results indicate that female Hooded Warblers completely compensate for male moult‐associated nest desertion, and that deserting males pay no reproductive cost for desertion, at least up to the point of fledging. Along with other studies, our findings support the general conclusion that late‐season offspring desertion is likely to evolve only when parental compensation by the deserted partner can minimize costs to the current brood.     

Age‐related prenatal maternal effects and postnatal breeding experience have different influences on nestling development in an altricial passerine

Reproductive success and nestling performance are related to the age of parents across several vertebrate taxa. However, because breeding experience and prenatal maternal investment in reproduction often covary, the source of these age‐related differences can be difficult to determine. In this study, we evaluated the influence of prenatal maternal effects and postnatal breeding experience on the performance of nestling tree swallows Tachycineta bicolor by conducting a carefully controlled partial cross‐fostering experiment. We swapped half‐broods of nestlings between the nest of a young first‐time breeding female and the nest of a female known to have previously raised and fledged young. Our manipulation did not influence the within‐brood nestling hierarchies, and controlled for the effects of egg laying order. We found that nestlings of older females were heavier just prior to fledging regardless of the breeding experience of the attending female. In addition, fledglings raised by experienced females grew their flight feathers faster, and had greater probability of fledging. Our study demonstrates that prenatal investment in reproduction by older females can have long‐term consequences on nestling mass, and suggests limited potential for compensatory mass gains prior to fledging. Because our analyses controlled for feeding rates, our results also suggest that foraging quantity and quality are not the only benefits nestlings gain by being raised by an experienced female.     

Influence of hatching order on growth rate and resting metabolism of kestrel nestlings

Hatching asynchrony in altricial birds may result in a competitive disadvantage for the youngest nestlings compared to older siblings. We studied the effects of a size hierarchy on the growth rate of Eurasian kestrels Falco tinnunculus chicks in nests with and without access to supplemented food in western Finland. Body mass stopped increasing on the 19th day after hatching while body size, estimated by a combination of bone and feather lengths continued to increase at least until fledging at 26 days. Body condition, reflecting muscle and fat, did not change markedly during the growth period from the 12th day to fledging. Body temperature and resting metabolism were usually lower in nestlings 12 days old than in nestlings at fledging. Growth of body mass, size and condition, and resting metabolism were delayed in last-hatched nestlings aged 19 days. Just before fledging, last-hatched nestlings attained a similar body mass and size, and had a similar resting metabolism to those of older siblings. At fledging, only in nests without access to supplemented food was the body condition of last-hatched chicks lower than that of its siblings, but in nests with access to supplemented food no such difference was detected. Our results highlight that the level of lipids in the last-hatched nestling can be affected by the food restriction imposed by hatching order.     

Brood provisioning rates and fledgling behavior of Cordilleran Flycatchers in southwestern Colorado

The behavior of young songbirds after fledging is one of the least understood phases of the breeding cycle, although parental provisioning rates and movement of fledglings are key to understanding life history evolution. We studied Cordilleran Flycatchers (Empidonax occidentalis) at two sites in southwestern Colorado, USA, from 2012 to 2017. We banded and sexed breeding adults to determine the relative contributions of males and females to nestling and fledgling care, and attached radio‐transmitters to nestlings to facilitate observations of brood behavior after fledging. Females made 60% and 78% of total observed feedings of nestlings and fledglings, respectively. Parental provisioning rates increased with nestling age, and per‐nestling provisioning rates increased with brood size. Parental provisioning rates declined just before fledging, then increased just after fledging. Fledging times of individuals in broods were asynchronous and concentrated during the late afternoon and early evening. Males stopped caring for fledglings before females even though this species is single‐brooded, with some late‐season broods being abandoned by males. Broods spent the first three weeks after fledging within 400 m of nests, after which they began to disperse. Most aspects of the breeding biology of Cordilleran Flycatchers in our study, including the duration of nestling and fledging periods, female‐dominated provisioning, and movement patterns of fledglings, were similar to those of other Empidonax species. However, the times when young fledged were not concentrated in the morning as reported in most other songbirds, and this result warrants additional study of the timing of fledging in ecologically and taxonomically similar species. The increased per‐nestling provisioning rate with increasing brood size was unexpected, and additional study is needed to determine if this increase results from a trade‐off between adult annual survival and productivity favoring increased provisioning of young in larger broods, or from the existence of high‐quality individuals where larger clutches and higher provisioning rates are linked.     

Avoidance,tolerance, and resistance to ectoparasites in nestling and adult tree swallows

We examined avoidance, tolerance, and resistance strategies of nestling and adult tree swallows Tachycineta bicolor in response to ectoparasitic blowflies Protocalliphora sialia. Tree swallows avoided settling in north‐facing nest boxes early in the breeding season. These boxes were more likely to be parasitized later in the season, suggesting that box selection may facilitate blowfly avoidance. After experimentally manipulating blowfly intensity, we found that nestlings were generally tolerant of parasitism. Parasites significantly reduced nestling blood hemoglobin but had no effect on nestling body mass, primary feather growth, age at fledging, or fledging success. Parents of parasitized nestlings did not increase their food provisioning rate to promote nestling tolerance. Adult female tree swallows demonstrated both tolerance and resistance: blowfly parasitism had no effect on adult hemoglobin and body mass, and those with higher P. sialia‐binding antibody levels had fewer blowfly larvae in their nests. Nestling antibodies were unrelated to blowfly intensity. Despite considerable variation among years, our results suggest that the costs of blowfly parasitism to nestling and adult tree swallows are modest, and limited to blood loss in nestlings. Future work should examine the effects of reduced blood hemoglobin on fledgling survival and the importance of parasite‐specific antibodies.     

The presence of kleptoparasitic fledglings is associated with a reduced breeding success in the host family in the barn owl

Fledgling birds sometimes abandon their own nest and move to neighboring nests where they are fed by host parents. This behaviour, referred to as ‘nest‐switching’, is well known in precocial birds that are mobile soon after hatching and can easily reach foster nests. In contrast, due to the difficulty of observing nest‐switching in territorial altricial birds, the causes and consequences of moving to others’ nests are poorly known in this group of birds. Nest‐switchers can be adopted by the foster parents or they can steal food from the host parents meant for their offspring, a form of kleptoparasitism, which may result in reduced breeding success of the host nest. In Israel, 12 barn owl fledglings left their natal nests and were found in 9 host nests out of 111 monitored nests (8.1%). Nest‐switchers that fledged earlier in the breeding season flew shorter distances to reach host nests probably because the density of nests with younger nestlings is higher early in the season. The number of host nestlings fledged and the percentage of nestlings fledged was lower in host nests than in nests without switchers. The occasional nest‐switchers were always older than host nestlings (respectively 80 and 50 days of age, on average) and host parents fledged fewer young when nest‐switchers occupied host nests with younger nestlings. This suggests that nest‐switchers are kleptoparasites because the presence of the older alien fledglings is associated with a lower breeding success of the host parents.     

European starlings: nestling condition, parasites and green nest material during the breeding season

Male European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) intermingle fresh herbs, preferably species rich in volatile compounds, into their dry nest material. In a field study, we investigated whether these herbs affect the mite and bacteria load of the nests and the condition of the nestlings either directly or via parasite control. We examined the amount of herbs and the number of plant species males carried into their nests, the variation of volatile compounds in the headspace air of the nest boxes and mite/bacteria load of the nests throughout the season. The amount of herb material and the number of plant species, the number of substances emanated by these plants and the infestation of the nests with bacteria and mites (Dermanyssus gallinae) increased with season. In a field experiment, we exchanged natural starling nests with experimental nests with or without herbs. We found that the herbs had no effect on the mites but fewer bacteria were sampled in nests with herbs than in nests without herbs. The body mass of the fledging was not related to the season or the mite/bacteria load of the nests. However, nestlings from nests with herbs fledged with higher body mass than nestlings from nests without herbs. Both bacteria and mite load were related to nestling mortality. In nests containing no herbs, the numbers of fledglings declined significantly with the increasing mite load while the mites had no effect on the number of fledglings in nests with herbs. Thus, the nest herbs counteracted the effect of the mites. In conclusion, it seems that volatile herbs can reduce bacterial but not mite infestation of the starling nests. The positive influence of herbs on nestling growth indicates that herbs either directly (perhaps as immunostimulants) improve the condition of the nestlings and help them cope with the harmful effects of mites, or they provide a nest environment beneficial for the nestlings‘ development by the reduction of germs.     

Experimental addition of greenery reduces flea loads in nests of a non-greenery using species, the tree swallow Tachycineta bicolor

Several bird species, including cavity-nesters such as European starlings Sturnus vulgaris , add to their nests green sprigs of plants such as yarrow Achillea millefolium that are rich in volatile compounds. In this field study on another cavity-nester, tree swallows Tachycineta bicolor , we tested whether yarrow reduced ectoparasite loads (the nest protection hypothesis), stimulated nestling immune systems (the drug hypothesis), or had other consequences for nestling growth or parental reproductive success (predicted by both preceding hypotheses). Tree swallows do not naturally add greenery to their nests, and thus offer several advantages in testing for effects of greenery independent of other potentially confounding explanations for the behaviour. We placed fresh yarrow in 23 swallow nests on the day the first egg was laid, replenishing every two days until clutch completion (=three times), and at 44 control nests, nesting material was simply touched. At 12 days of age, we measured nestling body size and mass, and took blood smears to do differential white blood cell counts. We subsequently determined the number and proportion of young fledging from nests and the number of fleas remaining after fledging. Higher humidity was associated with higher flea numbers whereas number of feathers in the nest was not. Our most significant finding was that an average of 773 fleas Ceratophyllus idius was found in control nests, versus 419 in yarrow nests. Possibly, parents compensate for blood that nestlings lose to ectoparasites by increasing food delivery, because we detected no differences between treatments in nestling mass, nestling leukocyte profiles, or proportion of young fledging, or relative to flea numbers. Our results provide no support for the drug hypothesis and strong support for the nest protection hypothesis.     

Removal of a nest-mate elicits an age-dependent increase in plasma corticosterone of nestling Black-legged Kittiwakes

ABSTRACT.   Plasma corticosterone concentrations in birds often increase about 3 min after exposure to a stressor such as capture and handling. When measuring adrenal responsiveness of nestlings in broods with more than one nestling, standardizing capture protocols to equalize the stressor among nestlings if they simultaneously perceive the presence and activity of a researcher as a stressor is logistically difficult. The objective of our study was to determine if nestling Black-legged Kittiwakes ( Rissa tridactyla ) in broods of two mount a corticosterone response when the first nestling is removed from the nest or, alternatively, if each initiates a corticosterone response only at the time it is handled. We obtained blood samples from one nestling within 3 min of initial disturbance of the nest, and then removed and sampled its sibling 10 min later. For younger nestlings, we found no difference in corticosterone levels between those sampled at 3 min and their sibling sampled at 10 min. In contrast, older nestlings sampled at 10 min after initial nest disturbance had elevated corticosterone levels compared to those sampled within 3 min. In addition, nestlings sampled within 3 min of capture had elevated corticosterone when exposed to protracted periods of investigator disturbance at nearby nests. Our results suggest that it is necessary to treat initial disturbance of the nest as the onset of the stress response for all nestlings in multi-nestling broods when handling older nestlings or nestlings of unknown age. In addition, for species that nest in dense colonies, the presence of an investigator at one nest may be a stressor for nestlings in adjacent nests.     

The reproductive biology of the Red Shining Parrot Prosopeia tabuensis on the island of 'Eua, Kingdom of Tonga

On Eua, Red Shining Parrots Prosopeia tabuensis breed in the cool and dry season, i.e. from May to October. Climate is the main factor timing the breeding season, which gives additional evidence for an assumed origin of the genus from temperate regions. Two or three eggs are laid in cavities of forest trees; the incubation time is about 24 days. Only females were observed brooding and feeding the young. Nestlings were fed three times a day independently of age. Single nestlings and older siblings received almost twice as much food per feeding as younger siblings. Growth constants are presented for weight, the width of the upper mandible, and wing-length. The fledging age is reached after 7 weeks but none of the observed nests fledged young due to predation by man. Breeding success was calculated at more than 50% for those nestlings that would have fledged without human interference. The reproductive biology of the Red Shining Parrot does not, apparently, show island-specific adaptations such as a reduced clutch-size or a prolonged nestling period.     

Early morning fledging improves recruitment in Great Tits Parus major

A potential key event linking the nestling phase to first‐year survival is fledging (nest leaving) because this process is characterized by a major change of environments and therefore a sudden shift in selective forces. Here we assessed whether different facets of fledging predicted subsequent survival (measured as local recruitment) in Great Tits Parus major. Nestlings had a higher recruitment probability when they fledged early in the morning and when they were heavy. The existence of selection for fledging early in the day has been suggested before, but here we provide the first empirical evidence in support of that prediction.