Among‐year variation in selection during early life stages and the genetic basis of fitness in Arabidopsis thaliana

Incomplete information regarding both selection regimes and the genetic basis of fitness limits our understanding of adaptive evolution. Among‐year variation in the genetic basis of fitness is rarely quantified, and estimates of selection are typically based on single components of fitness, thus potentially missing conflicting selection acting during other life‐history stages. Here, we examined among‐year variation in selection on a key life‐history trait and the genetic basis of fitness covering the whole life cycle in the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana. We planted freshly matured seeds of >200 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) derived from a cross between two locally adapted populations (Italy and Sweden), and both parental genotypes at the native site of the Swedish population in three consecutive years. We quantified selection against the nonlocal Italian genotype, mapped quantitative trait loci (QTL) for fitness and its components, and quantified selection on timing of germination during different life stages. In all 3 years, the local Swedish genotype outperformed the nonlocal Italian genotype. However, both the contribution of early life stages to relative fitness, and the effects of fitness QTL varied among years. Timing of germination was under conflicting selection through seedling establishment vs. adult survival and fecundity, and both the direction and magnitude of net selection varied among years. Our results demonstrate that selection during early life stages and the genetic basis of fitness can vary markedly among years, emphasizing the need for multiyear studies considering the whole life cycle for a full understanding of natural selection and mechanisms maintaining local adaptation.     

The genetics of adaptation to novel environments: selection on germination timing in Arabidopsis thaliana

When studying selection during adaptation to novel environments, researchers have often paid little attention to an organism’s earliest developmental stages. Despite this lack of attention, early life history traits may be under strong selection during colonization, as the expression of adaptive phenotypes at later points is contingent upon early survival. Moreover, the timing of early developmental transitions can constrain the timing of later transitions, with potentially large effects on fitness. In this issue, Huang et al. (2010) underscore the importance of early life history traits in the adaptation of Arabidopsis thaliana to old‐field sites in North America. Using a new population of mapped recombinant inbred lines, the authors examined germination timing and total lifetime fitness of A. thaliana while varying site latitude, dispersal season, and maternal photoperiod. Huang et al. (2010) discovered several Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) with large effects on fitness that colocalized with QTL for field germination timing and seed dormancy—demonstrating that fitness is genetically associated with these early life history traits, and that these loci are likely under strong selection during adaptation to novel environments. In the epistatic interactions of some loci, recombinant genotypes outperformed parental genotypes, supporting the potentially adaptive role of recombination. This study provides elegant evidence that traits expressed early in an organism’s development can play an important role during adaptive evolution.     

Early reproductive investment,senescence and lifetime reproductive success in female Asian elephants

The evolutionary theory of senescence posits that as the probability of extrinsic mortality increases with age, selection should favour early‐life over late‐life reproduction. Studies on natural vertebrate populations show early reproduction may impair later‐life performance, but the consequences for lifetime fitness have rarely been determined, and little is known of whether similar patterns apply to mammals which typically live for several decades. We used a longitudinal dataset on Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) to investigate associations between early‐life reproduction and female age‐specific survival, fecundity and offspring survival to independence, as well as lifetime breeding success (lifetime number of calves produced). Females showed low fecundity following sexual maturity, followed by a rapid increase to a peak at age 19 and a subsequent decline. High early life reproductive output (before the peak of performance) was positively associated with subsequent age‐specific fecundity and offspring survival, but significantly impaired a female's own later‐life survival. Despite the negative effects of early reproduction on late‐life survival, early reproduction is under positive selection through a positive association with lifetime breeding success. Our results suggest a trade‐off between early reproduction and later survival which is maintained by strong selection for high early fecundity, and thus support the prediction from life history theory that high investment in reproductive success in early life is favoured by selection through lifetime fitness despite costs to later‐life survival. That maternal survival in elephants depends on previous reproductive investment also has implications for the success of (semi‐)captive breeding programmes of this endangered species.     

Fecundity selection theory: concepts and evidence

Fitness results from an optimal balance between survival, mating success and fecundity. The interactions between these three components of fitness vary depending on the selective context, from positive covariation between them, to antagonistic pleiotropic relationships when fitness increases in one reduce the fitness of others. Therefore, elucidating the routes through which selection shapes life history and phenotypic adaptations via these fitness components is of primary significance to understanding ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, while the fitness components mediated by natural (survival) and sexual (mating success) selection have been debated extensively from most possible perspectives, fecundity selection remains considerably less studied. Here, we review the theoretical basis, evidence and implications of fecundity selection as a driver of sex‐specific adaptive evolution. Based on accumulating literature on the life‐history, phenotypic and ecological aspects of fecundity, we (i) suggest a re‐arrangement of the concepts of fecundity, whereby we coin the term ‘transient fecundity’ to refer to brood size per reproductive episode, while ‘annual’ and ‘lifetime fecundity’ should not be used interchangeably with ‘transient fecundity’ as they represent different life‐history parameters; (ii) provide a generalized re‐definition of the concept of fecundity selection as a mechanism that encompasses any traits that influence fecundity in any direction (from high to low) and in either sex; (iii) review the (macro)ecological basis of fecundity selection (e.g. ecological pressures that influence predictable spatial variation in fecundity); (iv) suggest that most ecological theories of fecundity selection should be tested in organisms other than birds; (v) argue that the longstanding fecundity selection hypothesis of female‐biased sexual size dimorphism (SSD) has gained inconsistent support, that strong fecundity selection does not necessarily drive female‐biased SSD, and that this form of SSD can be driven by other selective pressures; and (vi) discuss cases in which fecundity selection operates on males. This conceptual analysis of the theory of fecundity selection promises to help illuminate one of the central components of fitness and its contribution to adaptive evolution.     

Reproductive and post‐reproductive life history of wild‐caught Drosophila melanogaster under laboratory conditions

The life history of the fruit fly (Drosophila melanogaster) is well understood, but fitness components are rarely measured by following single individuals over their lifetime, thereby limiting insights into lifetime reproductive success, reproductive senescence and post‐reproductive lifespan. Moreover, most studies have examined long‐established laboratory strains rather than freshly caught individuals and may thus be confounded by adaptation to laboratory culture, inbreeding or mutation accumulation. Here, we have followed the life histories of individual females from three recently caught, non‐laboratory‐adapted wild populations of D. melanogaster. Populations varied in a number of life‐history traits, including ovariole number, fecundity, hatchability and lifespan. To describe individual patterns of age‐specific fecundity, we developed a new model that allowed us to distinguish four phases during a female's life: a phase of reproductive maturation, followed by a period of linear and then exponential decline in fecundity and, finally, a post‐ovipository period. Individual females exhibited clear‐cut fecundity peaks, which contrasts with previous analyses, and post‐peak levels of fecundity declined independently of how long females lived. Notably, females had a pronounced post‐reproductive lifespan, which on average made up 40% of total lifespan. Post‐reproductive lifespan did not differ among populations and was not correlated with reproductive fitness components, supporting the hypothesis that this period is a highly variable, random ‘add‐on’ at the end of reproductive life rather than a correlate of selection on reproductive fitness. Most life‐history traits were positively correlated, a pattern that might be due to genotype by environment interactions when wild flies are brought into a novel laboratory environment but that is unlikely explained by inbreeding or positive mutational covariance caused by mutation accumulation.     

VARIABLE SELECTION ON THE TIMING OF GERMINATION IN COLLINSIA VERNA (SCROPHULARIACEAE)

Natural selection on the timing of seed germination was investigated in a natural population of the winter annual Collinsia verna (Scrophulariaceae) for two years. The goal was to quantify 1) the importance of the timing of seed germination to life history evolution in this population and 2) variation in selection in time and space. During fall germination, seedlings were assigned to cohorts on the basis of their dates of germination. Growth, survivorship, and reproduction were censused throughout both years. Selection on the timing of germination was quantified using linear and quadratic regressions during three ecologically important periods in the life cycle, using the techniques of Lande and Arnold (1983) and Arnold and Wade (1984a, 1984b). Comparisons were made between years and on two spatial scales within years. Overall, selection favored early-germinating plants in the first year. The primary determinant of the relationship of the timing of germination to fitness was fecundity selection, rather than viability selection on seedlings. Fecundity selection was respondible for from 54% to 80% of the change in the mean time of germination. Significant disruptive selection characterized the second field season, again mediated mainly through fecundity selection. There was also temporal and spatial heterogeneity in selection on this character. Transects and quadrats differed significantly in the direction and magnitude of natural selection. In addition, the direction of selection changed between episodes for the transects. The results illustrate the importance of the timing of germination to life-history evolution in this annual plant and the complex action of natural selection on this character.     

An integrated analysis of phenotypic selection on insect body size and development time

Most studies of phenotypic selection do not estimate selection or fitness surfaces for multiple components of fitness within a unified statistical framework. This makes it difficult or impossible to assess how selection operates on traits through variation in multiple components of fitness. We describe a new generation of aster models that can evaluate phenotypic selection by accounting for timing of life‐history transitions and their effect on population growth rate, in addition to survival and reproductive output. We use this approach to estimate selection on body size and development time for a field population of the herbivorous insect, Manduca sexta (Lepidoptera: Sphingidae). Estimated fitness surfaces revealed strong and significant directional selection favoring both larger adult size (via effects on egg counts) and more rapid rates of early larval development (via effects on larval survival). Incorporating the timing of reproduction and its influence on population growth rate into the analysis resulted in larger values for size in early larval development at which fitness is maximized, and weaker selection on size in early larval development. These results illustrate how the interplay of different components of fitness can influence selection on size and development time. This integrated modeling framework can be readily applied to studies of phenotypic selection via multiple fitness components in other systems.     

Evidence for genetic differentiation in timing of maturation among nine‐spined stickleback populations

Timing of maturation is an important life‐history trait that is likely to be subjected to strong natural selection. Although population differences in timing of maturation have been frequently reported in studies of wild animal populations, little is known about the genetic basis of this differentiation. Here, we investigated population and sex differences in timing of maturation within and between two nine‐spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) populations in a laboratory breeding experiment. We found that fish from the high‐predation marine population matured earlier than fish from the low‐predation pond population and males matured earlier than females. Timing of maturation in both reciprocal hybrid crosses between the two populations was similar to that in the marine population, suggesting that early timing of maturation is a dominant trait, whereas delayed timing of maturation in the pond is a recessive trait. Thus, the observed population divergence is suggestive of strong natural selection against early maturation in the piscine‐predator‐free pond population.     

LIFE HISTORY VARIATION IN AN ARTIFICIALLY SELECTED POPULATION OF DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER: PLEIOTROPY,SUPERFLIES, AND AGE‐SPECIFIC ADAPTATION

We measured age‐specific fecundity and survival in recombinant inbred lines of Drosophila melanogaster that were derived from an artificial selection experiment for delayed reproduction. Age at peak oviposition is highly heritable (h²_B= 0.55). We find three qualitative categories of peak oviposition: early‐, midlife‐, and bimodal. Genetic correlations between life span and early fecundity are not significantly different from zero, but correlations with midlife fecundity are positive and statistically significant. Long‐lived genotypes exhibit a midlife fecundity peak. There is no evidence for a shift of reproductive effort from early to later stages. The existence of qualitatively recombinant phenotypes, including “superflies” that exhibit both enhanced survival and high levels of early fecundity, argues against the widespread idea that life history evolution in Drosophila is dominated by negative pleiotropy. There is clear evidence of age‐specific adaptation in the timing of oviposition.     

Playing smart vs. playing safe: the joint expression of phenotypic plasticity and potential bet hedging across and within thermal environments

Adaptive phenotypic plasticity evolves when cues reliably predict fitness consequences of life‐history decisions, whereas bet hedging evolves when environments are unpredictable. These modes of response should be jointly expressed, because environmental variance is composed of both predictable and unpredictable components. However, little attention has been paid to the joint expression of plasticity and bet hedging. Here, I examine the simultaneous expression of plasticity in germination rate and two potential bet‐hedging traits – germination fraction and within‐season diversification in timing of germination – in seeds from multiple seed families of five geographically distant populations of Lobelia inflata (L.) subjected to a thermal gradient. Populations differ in germination plasticity to temperature, in total germination fraction and in the expression of potential diversification in the timing of germination. The observation of a negative partial correlation between the expression of plasticity and germination variance (potential diversification), and a positive correlation between plasticity and germination fraction is suggestive of a trade‐off between modes of response to environmental variance. If the observed correlations are indicative of those between adaptive plasticity and bet hedging, we expect an optimal balance to exist and differ among populations. I discuss the challenges involved in testing whether the balance between plasticity and bet hedging depends on the relative predictability of environmental variance.     

Morph‐dependent fitness and directional change of morph frequencies over time in a Dutch population of Common buzzards Buteo buteo

How genetic polymorphisms are maintained in a population is a key question in evolutionary ecology. Previous work on a plumage colour polymorphism in the common buzzard Buteo buteo suggested heterozygote advantage as the mechanism maintaining the co‐existence of three morphs (light, intermediate and dark). We took advantage of 20 years of life‐history data collected in a Dutch population to replicate earlier studies on the relationship between colour morph and fitness in this species. We examined differences between morphs in adult apparent survival, breeding success, annual number of fledglings produced and cumulative reproductive success. We found that cumulative reproductive success differed among morphs, with the intermediate morph having highest fitness. We also found assortative mating for colour morph, whereby assortative pairs were more likely to produce offspring and had longer‐lasting pair bonds than disassortative pairs. Over the 20‐year study period, the proportion of individuals with an intermediate morph increased. This apparent evolutionary change did not just arise from selection on individual phenotypes, but also from fitness benefits of assortative mating. The increased frequency of intermediates might also be due to immigration or drift. We hypothesize that genetic variation is maintained through spatial variation in selection pressures. Further studies should investigate morph‐dependent dispersal behaviour and habitat choice.     

Variation in chronic radiation exposure does not drive life history divergence among Daphnia populations across the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone

Ionizing radiation is a mutagen with known negative impacts on individual fitness. However, much less is known about how these individual fitness effects translate into population‐level variation in natural environments that have experienced varying levels of radiation exposure. In this study, we sampled genotypes of the freshwater crustacean, Daphnia pulex, from the eight inhabited lakes across the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (CEZ). Each lake has experienced very different levels of chronic radiation exposure since a nuclear power reactor exploded there over thirty years ago. The sampled Daphnia genotypes represent genetic snapshots of current populations and allowed us to examine fitness‐related traits under controlled laboratory conditions at UK background dose rates. We found that whilst there was variation in survival and schedules of reproduction among populations, there was no compelling evidence that this was driven by variation in exposure to radiation. Previous studies have shown that controlled exposure to radiation at dose rates included in the range measured in the current study reduce survival, or fecundity, or both. One limitation of this study is the lack of available sites at high dose rates, and future work could test life history variation in various organisms at other high radiation areas. Our results are nevertheless consistent with the idea that other ecological factors, for example competition, predation or parasitism, are likely to play a much bigger role in driving variation among populations than exposure to the high radiation dose rates found in the CEZ. These findings clearly demonstrate that it is important to examine the potential negative effects of radiation across wild populations that are subject to many and varied selection pressures as a result of complex ecological interactions.     

Variable demography in relation to germination time in the annual plant Tagetes micrantha Cav. (Asteraceae)

This study tests whether variability in a life history trait such as emergence time has ecological and evolutionary significance in seasonal environments due to their relationship with fitness components. The population dynamics of nine different cohorts of seedlings emergence were analyzed in a natural population of the annual herb Tagetes micrantha Cav. (Asteraceae). Temporal variation in seedling emergence was related to the pattern of precipitation, while spatial variation could be related to topographical heterogeneity. Plants that emerged at the beginning of the season (early germination) had lower probabilities of survivorship than those that emerged at the end of the season (late germination). In contrast, plants that emerged early had, on average, higher fecundity than those that emerged late. The net result of these contrasting patterns of survival and fecundity constitute a life history trade-off in T. micrantha.     

Rainfall seasonality predicts the germination behavior of a tropical dry‐forest vine

Seed dormancy is considered to be an adaptive strategy in seasonal and/or unpredictable environments because it prevents germination during climatically favorable periods that are too short for seedling establishment. Tropical dry forests are seasonal environments where seed dormancy may play an important role in plant resilience and resistance to changing precipitation patterns. We studied the germination behavior of seeds from six populations of the Neotropical vine Dalechampia scandens (Euphorbiaceae) originating from environments of contrasting rainfall seasonality. Seeds produced by second greenhouse‐generation plants were measured and exposed to a favorable wet environment at different time intervals after capsule dehiscence and seed dispersal. We recorded the success and the timing of germination. All populations produced at least some dormant seeds, but seeds of populations originating from more seasonal environments required longer periods of after‐ripening before germinating. Within populations, larger seeds tended to require longer after‐ripening periods than did smaller seeds. These results indicate among‐population genetic differences in germination behavior and suggest that these populations are adapted to local environmental conditions. They also suggest that seed size may influence germination timing within populations. Ongoing changes in seasonality patterns in tropical dry forests may impose strong selection on these traits.     

SELECTION ON HERBIVORE LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS BY THE FIRST AND THIRD TROPHIC LEVELS: THE DEVIL AND THE DEEP BLUE SEA REVISITED

Abstract The timing of life‐history events in insects can have important consequences for both survival and reproduction. For insect herbivores with complex life histories, selection is predicted to favor those combinations of traits that increase the size at metamorphosis while minimizing the risk of mortality from natural enemies. Studies quantifying selection on life‐history traits in natural insect herbivore populations, however, have been rare. The purpose of this study was to measure phenotypic selection imposed by elements of the first and third trophic levels on variation in two life‐history traits, the timing of egg hatch and pupal mass, in a population of oak‐feeding caterpillars, Psilocorsis quercicella (Lepidoptera: Oecophoridae). Larvae were collected from the field throughout each of two generations per year for three years and reared to determine the effects of the date of egg hatch on both the risk of attack from parasitoids and the pupal mass of the survivors. The direction and strength of phenotypic selection attributed to aspects of the first and third trophic levels, as well as their combined effects, on the date of egg hatch was measured for each of the six generations. Heritabilities of and genetic correlations between pupal mass and the date of adult emergence from diapause (the life‐history trait expected to have the largest influence on the timing of egg hatch, and thus larval development) were estimated from laboratory matings. In four of the six generations examined, significant directional selection attributed to the first trophic level was detected, always favoring early‐hatching cohorts predicted to experience higher leaf quality than late‐hatching cohorts. Directional phenotypic selection by the third trophic level was detected in only one of three years, and in that year the direction of selection was in opposite directions during the two successive generations. The combined effect of selection by both trophic levels indicated that the third trophic level acted to either reduce or enhance the more predictable pattern of selection attributed to the first trophic level. In addition, I found evidence of truncation selection acting to increase the mean and decrease the variance of pupal mass during the pupa‐adult transition in the laboratory. Pupal mass and diapause duration were found to vary significantly among full‐sibling families; upper bounds for heritability estimates were 0.57 and 0.30, respectively. Furthermore, these two traits were found to be positively genetically correlated (families with larger pupae had longer diapause durations), resulting in a fitness trade‐off, because larger pupae enjoy higher survival through metamorphosis and female fecundity but emerge later, when average leaf quality for offspring is generally poorer.     

Effects of host-plant species on diapause induction of the Kanzawa spider mite, Tetranychus kanzawai

In many herbivorous arthropods, incidence of diapause, which is considered to reflect the timing of diapause, changes depending on the host plants they utilize. Several theoretical studies suggest that the optimal timing of diapause induction depends on life‐history traits; if the development time of the arthropod is short, fecundity is high, or survival rate remains high throughout the season, the optimal timing of diapause induction would be shifted toward the end of the season. For herbivorous arthropods, these life history traits may change among their host plants. Here we examined whether a population of the Kanzawa spider mite, Tetranychus kanzawai Kishida (Acari: Tetranychidae), shows the predicted pattern of diapause induction on two host plants, the kidney bean [Phaseolus vulgaris (Leguminosae)] and Japanese Orixa [Orixa japonica (Rutaceae)], on which the mites show different performances. Rearing conditions were controlled in two ways. In the first experiment, day length and temperature were kept constant throughout the mite lifetime at either of three conditions from mid October to early November. In the second experiment, the conditions were changed from 20 °C and L11.5:D12.5 at immature stages to 18 °C and L11:D13 at adult stage in order to better approximate field conditions. In the first experiment, diapause incidence on P. vulgaris was lower than on O. japonica. This tendency became stronger in the second experiment, suggesting a difference in the timing of diapause induction among host plants. On the other hand, P. vulgaris was proven to allow high performance, i.e., greater lifetime fecundity and shorter development times, although it had no effect on the survival rate. The relationship between diapause incidence and performance is consistent with the prediction of theoretical studies that a short development time or high fecundity delays the timing of diapause induction.     

Influences of multilocus heterozygosity on size during early life

Genetic diversity has been hypothesized to promote fitness of individuals and populations, but few studies have examined how genetic diversity varies with ontogeny. We examined patterns in population and individual genetic diversity and the effect of genetic diversity on individual fitness among life stages (adults and juveniles) and populations of captive yellow perch (Perca flavescens) stocked into two ponds and allowed to spawn naturally. Significant genetic structure developed between adults and offspring in a single generation, even as heterozygosity and allelic richness remained relatively constant. Heterozygosity had no effect on adult growth or survival, but was significantly and consistently positively related to offspring length throughout the first year of life in one pond but not the other. The largest individuals in the pond exhibiting this positive relationship were more outbred than averaged size individuals and also more closely related to one another than they were to average‐sized individuals, suggesting potential heritability of body size or spawn timing effects. These results indicate that the influence of heterozygosity may be mediated through an interaction, likely viability selection, between ontogeny and environment that is most important during early life. In addition, populations may experience significant genetic change within a single generation in captive environments, even when allowed to reproduce naturally. Accounting for the dynamic influences of genetic diversity on early life fitness could lead to improved understanding of recruitment and population dynamics in both wild and captive populations.     

Individual fitness and the effects of a changing climate on the cessation and length of the breeding period using a 34‐year study of a temperate songbird

Studies of the phenological responses of animals to climate change typically emphasize the initiation of breeding although climatic effects on the cessation and length of the breeding period may be as or more influential of fitness. We quantified links between climate, the cessation and length of the breeding period, and individual survival and reproduction using a 34‐year study of a resident song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population subject to dramatic variation in climate. We show that the cessation and length of the breeding period varied strongly across years, and predicted female annual fecundity but not survival. Breeding period length was more influential of fecundity than initiation or cessation of breeding alone. Warmer annual temperature and drier winters and summers predicted an earlier cessation of breeding. Population density, the date breeding was initiated, a female's history of breeding success, and the number of breeding attempts initiated previously also predicted the cessation of breeding annually, indicating that climatic, population, and individual factors may interact to affect breeding phenology. Linking climate projections to our model results suggests that females will both initiate and cease breeding earlier in the future; this will have opposite effects on individual reproductive rate because breeding earlier is expected to increase fecundity, whereas ceasing breeding earlier should reduce it. Identifying factors affecting the cessation and length of the breeding period in multiparous species may be essential to predicting individual fitness and population demography. Given a rich history of studies on the initiation of breeding in free‐living species, re‐visiting those data to estimate climatic effects on the cessation and length of breeding should improve our ability to predict the impacts of climate change on multiparous species.     

Heterosis in age‐specific selected populations of a seed beetle: Sex differences in longevity and reproductive behavior

We tested mutation accumulation hypothesis for the evolution of senescence using short‐lived and long‐lived populations of the seed‐feeding beetle, Acanthoscelides obtectus (Say), obtained by selection on early‐ and late‐life for many generations. The expected consequence of the mutation accumulation hypothesis is that in short‐lived populations, where the force of natural selection is the strongest early in life, the late‐life fitness traits should decline due to genetic drift which increases the frequency of mutations with deleterious effects in later adult stages. Since it is unlikely that identical deleterious mutations will increase in several independent populations, hybrid vigor for late‐life fitness is expected in offspring obtained in crosses among populations selected for early‐life fitness traits. We tested longevity of both sexes, female fecundity and male reproductive behavior for hybrid vigor by comparing hybrid and nonhybrid short‐lived populations. Hybrid vigor was confirmed for male virility, mating speed and copulation duration, and longevity of both sexes at late ages. In contrast to males, the results on female fecundity in short‐lived populations did not support mutation accumulation as a genetic mechanism for the evolution of this trait. Contrary to the prediction of this hypothesis, male mating ability indices and female fecundity in long‐lived populations exhibited hybrid vigor at all assayed age classes. We demonstrate that nonhybrid long‐lived populations diverged randomly regarding female and male reproductive fitness, indicating that sexually antagonistic selection, when accompanied with genetic drift for female fecundity and male virility, might be responsible for overriding natural selection in the independently evolving long‐lived populations.     

Density‐dependent demographic responses of a semelparous plant to natural variation in seed rain

The link between reproductive and vegetative ecology of flowering plants is rarely explored, despite its importance for understanding population processes and fitness. This link can be studied by using experimental or natural variation in seed input to the soil to assess how reproductive success affects vital rates of offspring. We previously reported for Ipomopsis aggregata that per‐seed probability of germinating is insensitive to density of seeds sown into plots, whereas per capita flower production among adults that grow from the seedlings declines in nonlinear fashion with density. Here we describe a parallel non‐experimental study. We related seedling emergence to estimated natural seed input (‘seed rain’) in three populations across ten summers and monitored seedlings that emerged in the first two summers throughout their life histories. Seedling emergence in 1996 was linearly related to seed rain from plants that flowered in 1995. This density independent seed‐to‐seedling transition recurred over the next nine summers, but the slope varied with springtime precipitation. Total numbers of 1996 seedlings that survived to flower and numbers of flowers they produced increased linearly with seed rain in one population, but did not vary detectably in the other two, consistent with negative density dependence. In consequence λ (the dominant eigenvalue of a population projection matrix) decreased from high values at low densities of seed rain to a relatively constant low value with greater seed rain. We also detected density dependence in the 1995 seedling cohort in survival and flower production. The similarity of results from natural and experimental studies supports a conclusion of nonlinear density dependence and shows that characterizing it requires the full life history. For this plant species and others, studies of pollination and fecundity alone may not suffice to draw conclusions about population change or fitness.