Diversity of European habitat types is correlated with geography more than climate and human pressure

Habitat richness, that is, the diversity of ecosystem types, is a complex, spatially explicit aspect of biodiversity, which is affected by bioclimatic, geographic, and anthropogenic variables. The distribution of habitat types is a key component for understanding broad‐scale biodiversity and for developing conservation strategies. We used data on the distribution of European Union (EU) habitats to answer the following questions: (i) how do bioclimatic, geographic, and anthropogenic variables affect habitat richness? (ii) Which of those factors is the most important? (iii) How do interactions among these variables influence habitat richness and which combinations produce the strongest interactions? The distribution maps of 222 terrestrial habitat types as defined by the Natura 2000 network were used to calculate habitat richness for the 10 km × 10 km EU grid map. We then investigated how environmental variables affect habitat richness, using generalized linear models, generalized additive models, and boosted regression trees. The main factors associated with habitat richness were geographic variables, with negative relationships observed for both latitude and longitude, and a positive relationship for terrain ruggedness. Bioclimatic variables played a secondary role, with habitat richness increasing slightly with annual mean temperature and overall annual precipitation. We also found an interaction between anthropogenic variables, with the combination of increased landscape fragmentation and increased population density strongly decreasing habitat richness. This is the first attempt to disentangle spatial patterns of habitat richness at the continental scale, as a key tool for protecting biodiversity. The number of European habitats is related to geography more than climate and human pressure, reflecting a major component of biogeographical patterns similar to the drivers observed at the species level. The interaction between anthropogenic variables highlights the need for coordinated, continental‐scale management plans for biodiversity conservation.     

How does habitat diversity affect the species–area relationship?

Aim   To examine the way in which 'area' and 'habitat diversity' interact in shaping species richness and to find a simple and valid way to express this interaction.
Location   The Natura 2000 network of terrestrial protected areas in Greece, covering approximately 16% of the national territory.
Methods   We used the Natura 2000 framework, which provides a classification scheme for natural habitat types, to quantify habitat heterogeneity. We analysed data for the plant species composition in 16,143 quadrats in which 5044 species and subspecies of higher plants were recorded. We built a simple mathematical model that incorporates the effect of habitat diversity on the species–area relationship (SAR).
Results   Our analysis showed that habitat diversity was correlated with area. However, keeping habitat diversity constant, species richness was related to area; while keeping area constant, species richness was related to habitat diversity. Comparing the SAR of the 237 sites we found that the slope of the species–area curve was related to habitat diversity.
Main conclusions   Discussion of the causes of the SAR has often focused on the primacy of area per se versus habitat heterogeneity, even though the two mechanisms are not mutually exclusive and should be considered jointly. We find that increasing habitat diversity affects the SAR in different ways, but the dominant effect is to increase the slope of the SAR. While a full model fit typically includes a variety of terms involving both area and habitat richness, we find that the effect of habitat diversity can be reduced to a linear perturbation of the slope of the species accumulation curve.     

Climate change threatens European conservation areas

Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58?±?2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63?±?2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P?相似文献   

Patterns of species richness for vascular plants in China's nature reserves

Explaining the heterogeneous distribution of biodiversity across the Earth has long been a challenge to ecologists and biogeographers. Here, we document the patterns of plant species richness for different taxonomic groups in China's nature reserves, and discuss their possible explanations at national and regional scales, using vascular plant richness data coupled with information on climate and topographical variables. We found that water deficit, energy and elevation range (a surrogate of habitat heterogeneity) represent the primary explanations for variation in plant species richness of the nature reserves across China. There are consistent relationships between species richness and climate and habitat heterogeneity for different taxonomic vascular plant groups at the national scale. Habitat heterogeneity is strongly associated with plant richness in all regions, whereas climatic constraints to plant diversity vary regionally. In the regions where energy is abundant or water is scarce, plant richness patterns were determined by water and habitat heterogeneity, whereas in the region with low energy inputs, water interacting with energy, and habitat heterogeneity determined its species richness pattern. Our results also suggest that energy variables alone do not represent the primary predictor of plant richness.     

Environmental diagnosis: Integrating biodiversity conservation in management of Natura 2000 forest spaces

The conservation of biodiversity in Europe is defined by Directive 92/43/EEC – commonly known as the Habitats Directive – relating to the conservation of natural habitats and of wild flora and fauna. This Directive established the creation of an ecological network of European protected areas – the Natura 2000 network – , and also recognised the need to manage these areas to maintain their “favourable conservation status”.This paper proposes a methodology which enables the conservation of biodiversity to be integrated into the management of Natura 2000 forest spaces. The methodology comprises an “environmental diagnosis” in three phases. The first phase evaluates the current conservation status of habitats using the following criteria: vital functions; floristic richness; forest structure; area occupied by the habitat; and recovery capacity. The second phase assesses the fragility of the space to determine the degree of vulnerability of habitats. This involves evaluating the fire hazard, erosion hazard, and the fragility of the vegetation. The last phase combines the two previous ones to generate management areas (optimum, intermediate or unfavourable) and to prioritise management actions.This methodology was applied in a protected forest area in the Natura 2000 network, located in Avila (Spain). Different management areas were generated for biodiversity conservation, and each habitat was associated to one of them. Finally, actions were prioritised and designed to raise the habitats to a “favourable conservation status”.     

Predictors of mammal species richness in KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

The management of multi-functional landscapes warrants better knowledge of environment-richness associations at varying disturbance levels and habitat gradients. Intensive land-use patterns for agricultural purposes lead to fragmentation of natural habitat resulting in biodiversity loss that can be measured using landscape metrics to assess mammalian richness. Since carnivores and herbivores are likely to show different responses to disturbance, we calculated carnivore, non-carnivore, and total mammal species richness from camera surveys using a first order Jackknife Estimator. Richness was compared along a habitat gradient comprising coastal forest, Acacia thicket, and highland in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We used standardized OLS regression models to identify climatic and disturbance variables, and landscape metrics as predictors of species richness. The estimated total and non-carnivore species richness were highest in coastal forest, while carnivore species richness was highest in highland followed by coastal forest and Acacia thicket. Average monthly maximum temperature was a significant predictor of all richness groups, and precipitation of the wettest month and isothermality determined total and non-carnivore species richness, respectively. These climatic variables possibly limit species distribution because of physiological tolerance of the species. Total mammal richness was determined by mean shape (+) and habitat division (−) while diversity (+) and patch richness (−) explained carnivore species richness. Mean shape index (+) influenced non-carnivore richness. However, habitat division and patch richness negatively influenced total mammal richness. Though habitat patch size and contiguity had a weak positive prediction, these metrics demonstrated the importance of habitat connectivity for maintaining mammal richness. The identification of these climatic and landscape patterns is important to facilitate future landscape management for mammal conservation in forest-mosaics.     

Environment–richness relationships for mammals,birds, reptiles,and amphibians at global and regional scales

Climate has been routinely indicated as a major determinant of broad-scale species richness patterns for a variety of taxa, but studies vary widely in attributing richness variation to the broad-scale distribution of energy, water, ecosystem productivity, habitat heterogeneity, or some combination thereof. Here, I report global and regional environment–richness relationships for the four classes of terrestrial vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians) using identical sample units and the same set of climate (temperature, precipitation, annual actual evapotranspiration), productivity (normalized difference vegetation index), and topographic (elevation range) variables. My results strongly support concomitant availability of energy and water as the principal constraint on global richness for all vertebrate groups except reptiles, which are largely constrained by temperature. However, environment–richness models for all taxonomic groups varied widely when applied to single (continental-scale) biogeographic realms. In particular, I found strong support for the ‘water–energy dynamics hypothesis’ that models richness as a function of ambient energy (temperature) in high latitudes and water availability (precipitation) at low latitudes, partially independent of productivity. Ectotherm groups were more constrained by temperature than endotherms, and amphibians were more constrained by water availability than other groups. Although habitat heterogeneity, measured as elevation range, was a consistent contributor to global and regional richness models for all groups, its contribution was always minor compared to other variables. I conclude that temperature and water availability are key variables for modeling broad-scale vertebrate richness, but there remains significant room for taxon-specific modeling approaches and for the inclusion of non-climate factors related to evolutionary history and faunal assembly in different regions.     

Interactions between climate and habitat loss effects on biodiversity: a systematic review and meta‐analysis

Climate change and habitat loss are both key threatening processes driving the global loss in biodiversity. Yet little is known about their synergistic effects on biological populations due to the complexity underlying both processes. If the combined effects of habitat loss and climate change are greater than the effects of each threat individually, current conservation management strategies may be inefficient and at worst ineffective. Therefore, there is a pressing need to identify whether interacting effects between climate change and habitat loss exist and, if so, quantify the magnitude of their impact. In this article, we present a meta‐analysis of studies that quantify the effect of habitat loss on biological populations and examine whether the magnitude of these effects depends on current climatic conditions and historical rates of climate change. We examined 1319 papers on habitat loss and fragmentation, identified from the past 20 years, representing a range of taxa, landscapes, land‐uses, geographic locations and climatic conditions. We find that current climate and climate change are important factors determining the negative effects of habitat loss on species density and/or diversity. The most important determinant of habitat loss and fragmentation effects, averaged across species and geographic regions, was current maximum temperature, with mean precipitation change over the last 100 years of secondary importance. Habitat loss and fragmentation effects were greatest in areas with high maximum temperatures. Conversely, they were lowest in areas where average rainfall has increased over time. To our knowledge, this is the first study to conduct a global terrestrial analysis of existing data to quantify and test for interacting effects between current climate, climatic change and habitat loss on biological populations. Understanding the synergistic effects between climate change and other threatening processes has critical implications for our ability to support and incorporate climate change adaptation measures into policy development and management response.     

Plant species richness of nature reserves: the interplay of area, climate and habitat in a central European landscape

Aim To detect regional patterns of plant species richness in temperate nature reserves and determine the unbiased effects of environmental variables by mutual correlation with operating factors. Location The Czech Republic. Methods Plant species richness in 302 nature reserves was studied by using 14 explanatory variables reflecting the reserve area, altitude, climate, habitat diversity and prevailing vegetation type. Backward elimination of explanatory variables was used to analyse the data, taking into account their interactive nature, until the model contained only significant terms. Results A minimal adequate model with reserve area, mean altitude, prevailing vegetation type and habitat diversity (expressed as the number of major habitat types in the reserve) accounted for 53.9% of the variance in species number. After removing the area effect, habitat diversity explained 15.6% of variance, while prevailing vegetation type explained 29.6%. After removing the effect of both area and vegetation type, the resulting model explained 10.3% of the variance, indicating that species richness further increased with habitat diversity, and most obviously towards warm districts. After removing the effects of area, habitat diversity and climatic district, the model still explained 9.4% of the variance, and showed that species richness (i) significantly decreased with increasing mean altitude and annual precipitation, and with decreasing January temperature in the region of the mountain flora, and (ii) increased with altitudinal range in regions of temperate and thermophilous flora. Main conclusions We described, in quantitative terms, the effects of the main factors that might be considered to be determining plant species richness in temperate nature reserves, and evaluated their relative importance. The direct habitat effect on species richness was roughly equal to the direct area effect, but the total direct and indirect effects of area slightly exceeded that of habitat. It was shown that the overall effect of composite variables such as altitude or climatic district can be separated into particular climatic variables, which influence the richness of flora in a context‐specific manner. The statistical explanation of richness variation at the level of families yielded similar results to that for species, indicating that the system of nature conservation provides similar degrees of protection at different taxonomic levels.     

Native and alien floras in urban habitats: a comparison across 32 cities of central Europe

Aim To determine relative effects of habitat type, climate and spatial pattern on species richness and composition of native and alien plant assemblages in central European cities. Location Central Europe, Belgium and the Netherlands. Methods The diversity of native and alien flora was analysed in 32 cities. In each city, plant species were recorded in seven 1‐ha plots that represented seven urban habitat types with specific disturbance regimes. Plants were classified into native species, archaeophytes (introduced before ad 1500) and neophytes (introduced later). Two sets of explanatory variables were obtained for each city: climatic data and all‐scale spatial variables generated by analysis of principal coordinates of neighbour matrices. For each group of species, the effect of habitat type, climate and spatial variables on variation in species composition was determined by variation partitioning. Responses of individual plant species to climatic variables were tested using a set of binomial regression models. Effects of climatic variables on the proportion of alien species were determined by linear regression. Results In all cities, 562 native plant species, 188 archaeophytes and 386 neophytes were recorded. Proportions of alien species varied among urban habitats. The proportion of native species decreased with increasing range and mean annual temperature, and increased with increasing precipitation. In contrast, proportions of archaeophytes and neophytes increased with mean annual temperature. However, spatial pattern explained a larger proportion of variation in species composition of the urban flora than climate. Archaeophytes were more uniformly distributed across the studied cities than the native species and neophytes. Urban habitats rich in native species also tended to be rich in archaeophytes and neophytes. Main conclusions Species richness and composition of central European urban floras are significantly affected by urban habitat types, climate and spatial pattern. Native species, archaeophytes and neophytes differ in their response to these factors.     

Assessing the impact of land use and climate change on the evergreen broad-leaved species of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus acuta</Emphasis> in Japan

To assess the impact of Quercus acuta, a dominant species in the evergreen broad-leaved forests of Japan, and its habitat shifts as a result of climate change, we predicted the potential habitats under the current climate and two climate change scenarios using a random forest (RF). The presence/absence records of Q. acuta were extracted from the Phytosociological Relevè Data Base as response variables, and four climatic variables (warmth index, WI; minimum temperature of the coldest month, TMC; summer precipitation, PRS; and winter precipitation, PRW) were used as predictor variables. The mean decrease in the Gini criterion revealed that WI was the most influential factor followed by TMC. The RF revealed a considerable increase in potential habitats (PHs) under the climate change scenarios for 2081–2100 (RCM20, 180,141 km²; MIROC, 175,635 km²) relative to the current climate (150,542 km²). The land use variables were used for masking PH. The PH masked by land use (PHLU) was approximately half of the PH under the current conditions (74,567 km²). Under the climate change scenarios and 1 km migration options, the PHLU were not increased relative to its value under the current conditions. The distribution of Q. acuta was restricted by the northward shift in northern Honshu, but expanded as a result of the upward shift into the mountain areas of Western Japan. Habitat fragmentation reduced the ability of migration to respond to climate change in the lowland areas of Japan.     

Environmental Correlates for Species Richness among Amphibians and Reptiles in a Climate Transition Area

Correlations between environmental factors and the distribution of amphibian and reptile species richness were investigated in a climate transition area, Peneda-Gerês National Park (PNPG), in North-Western Portugal. Using presence-data at a local-scale (1 × 1 km), Ecological-Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) identified a mixture of climatic (precipitation and number of days with fog), topographical (altitude and relief) and habitat factors (number of watercourses and water surfaces, the type of the largest water surface and tree diversity cover), as accurate predictors of species occurrence. Three factors were common for both taxonomic groups, and consistently presented a positive relation with species occurrence: precipitation, number of water surfaces, and tree diversity cover; suggesting a strong coincidence in the environmental correlates that influence amphibian and reptile species richness. Distribution patterns of observed and predicted species richness were compared using a Geographical Information System. Overall, three high species richness areas were predicted in common for both taxonomic groups and two additional areas for amphibians only. These areas matched with the observed species richness but suggested larger areas of high species richness. The location of the PNPG in a biogeographic crossroad, between Euro-Siberian and Mediterranean provinces, emphasised species richness of amphibians and reptiles and suggests a high priority conservation status for this protected area. Most of Central-Northern Portugal is located in a climatic transition area; therefore, increased species richness should be expected for other areas. Local scale studies for other protected areas should be planned as a framework for the development of multi-scale conservation planning by Portuguese authorities.     

Integration of modelling and policy: Wolf reproductive-site model for Natura 2000 conservation measures in Italian Alps

Ecological knowledge is considered an important factor in environmental policy-making. However, the opportunity for ecologists to influence policy can often occur within discrete time policy windows, and seizing these opportunities has been heavily emphasized as a recent global conservation need. In 2017 the Natura 2000 Conservation Measures have been finalized in Italy, and delineated the management policy and institutional responsibilities of Natura 2000 Sites, after obligations of the EU Habitat Directive. In this timeframe, we developed a multi-scalar hierarchical habitat selection model for wolf reproductive-sites to identify potentially favorable habitat for wolf reproduction in the western Italian Alps, based on 19 years of data. This habitat suitability model was useful for the definition of species conservation requirements within the Natura 2000 Sites, and has been adopted in legislation processes, representing a successful example of ecological modelling fitting into a relevant policy window and informing legal instruments to achieve nature conservation goals.     

Potential extinction debt due to habitat loss and fragmentation in subalpine moorland ecosystems

Habitat loss and fragmentation would often induce delayed extinction, referred to as extinction debt. Understanding potential extinction debts would allow us to reduce future extinction risk by restoring habitats or implementing conservation actions. Although growing empirical evidence has predicted extinction debts in various ecosystems exposed to direct human disturbances, potential extinction debts in natural ecosystems with minimal direct human disturbance are little studied. Ongoing climate change may cause habitat loss and fragmentation, particularly in natural ecosystems vulnerable to environmental change, potentially leading to future local extinctions. Recent climate change would lead to extended growing season caused by earlier snowmelt in spring, resulting in expansion of shrubby species and thereby habitat loss and fragmentation of mountainous moorlands. We examined the potential extinction debts of species diversity and functional diversity (FD; trait variation or multivariate trait differences within a community) in subalpine moorland ecosystems subjected to few direct human disturbances. Plant species richness for all species and for moorland specialists were primarily explained by the past kernel density of focal moorlands (a proxy for spatial clustering of moorlands around them) but not the past area of the focal moorlands, suggesting potential extinction debt in subalpine moorland ecosystems. The higher kernel density of the focal moorland in the past indicates that it was originally surrounded by more neighborhood moorlands and/or had been locally highly fragmented. Patterns in current plant species richness have been shaped by the historical spatial configuration of moorlands, which have disappeared over time. In contrast, we found no significant relationships between the FD and historical and current landscape variables depicting each moorland. The prevalence of trait convergence might result in a less sensitive response of FD to habitat loss and fragmentation compared to that of species richness. Our finding has an important implication that climate change induced by human activities may threaten biodiversity in natural ecosystems through habitat loss and fragmentation.

     

宏生态尺度上景观破碎化对物种丰富度的影响

生物多样性的地理格局及其形成机制是宏生态学与生物地理学的研究热点。大量研究表明,景观尺度上的生境破碎化对物种多样性的分布格局具有重要作用,但目前尚不清楚这种作用是否足以在宏生态尺度上对生物多样性地理格局产生显著影响。利用中国大陆鸟类和哺乳动物的物种分布数据,在100 km×100 km网格的基础上生成了这两个类群生物的物种丰富度地理格局,进一步利用普通最小二乘法模型和空间自回归模型研究了物种丰富度与气候、生境异质性、景观破碎化的相关关系。结果表明,景观破碎化因子与鸟类和哺乳动物的物种丰富度都具有显著的关联关系,其方差贡献率可达约30%—50%(非空间模型)和60%—80%(空间模型),略低于或接近于气候和生境异质性因子。方差分解结果显示,景观破碎化因子与气候和生境异质性因子的方差贡献率的重叠部分达20%—40%。相对鸟类而言,景观破碎化对哺乳动物物种丰富度的地理格局具有更高的解释率。     

Modelling geographic distribution and detecting conservation gaps in Italy for the threatened beetle Rosalia alpina

Presence-only models can aid conservation and management of threatened, elusive species. We developed a Maxent model for the rare cerambycid beetle Rosalia longicorn Rosalia alpina L. in Italy and neighbouring regions and identified the variables best explaining the species’ occurrence on a large scale. Once successfully validated, we used the model to (a) evaluate the current degree of fragmentation of R. alpina range in Italy; and (b) quantify the amount of the Italian territory with the highest probability of beetle presence within the existing national conservation areas (Natura 2000 network, parks and reserves). Low (<0.5) probability scores of R. alpina presence corresponded to 89% of the total area considered, whereas high scores (>0.9) covered only 2.5%. R. alpina was predicted to occur mostly in broadleaved deciduous forest at 1000–1700 m a.s.l. with warm maximum spring temperatures and May and November precipitation >80 mm. We found a high degree of fragmentation; gaps were mainly covered with farmland or other unsuitable habitat. Over 52% of potential habitat is unprotected. While the Natura 2000 network protects 42% of potential habitat, parks and reserve covers less than 29%. To preserve R. alpina, we urge to create, or restore, forest corridors to bridge the otherwise impermeable gaps our model detected and grant protection to the still largely unprotected area of the Italian territory e.g. by including it in further Natura 2000 sites. Models such as ours may also help focus field surveys in selected areas to save resources and increase survey success.     

Does fragmentation of Urtica habitats affect phytophagous and predatory insects differentially?

Effects of habitat fragmentation on the insect community of stinging nettle (Urtica dioica L.) were studied, using 32 natural nettle patches of different area and degree of isolation in an agricultural landscape. Habitat fragmentation reduced the species richness of Heteroptera, Auchenorrhyncha, and Coleoptera, and the abundance of populations. Habitat isolation and area reduction did not affect all insect species equally. Monophagous herbivores had a higher probability of absence from small patches than all (monophagous and polyphagous) herbivore species, and the percentage of monophagous herbivores increased with habitat area. Abundance and population variability of species were negatively correlated and could both be used as a predictor of the percentage of occupied habitats. Species richness of herbivores correlated (positively) with habitat area, while species richness of predators correlated (negatively) with habitat isolation. In logistic regressions, the probability of absence of monophagous herbivores from habitat patches could only be explained by habitat area (in 4 out of 10 species) and predator absence probability only by habitat isolation (in 3 out of 14 species). Presumably because of the instability of higher-trophic-level populations and dispersal limitation, predators were more affected by habitat isolation than herbivores, while they did not differ from herbivore populations with respect to abundance or variability. Thus increasing habitat connectivity in the agricultural landscape should primarily promote predator populations. Received: 4 February 1998 / Accepted: 4 May 1998     

Patterns of woody plant species richness in the Iberian Peninsula: environmental range and spatial scale

Aim Climate‐based models often explain most of the variation in species richness along broad‐scale geographical gradients. We aim to: (1) test predictions of woody plant species richness on a regional spatial extent deduced from macro‐scale models based on water–energy dynamics; (2) test if the length of the climate gradients will determine whether the relationship with woody species richness is monotonic or unimodal; and (3) evaluate the explanatory power of a previously proposed ‘water–energy’ model and regional models at two grain sizes. Location The Iberian Peninsula. Methods We estimated woody plant species richness on grid maps with c. 2500 and 22,500 km² cell size, using geocoded data for the individual species. Generalized additive models were used to explore the relationships between richness and climatic, topographical and substrate variables. Ordinary least squares regression was used to compare regional and more general water–energy models in relation to grain size. Variation partitioning by partial regression was applied to find how much of the variation in richness was related to spatial variables, explanatory variables and the overlap between these two. Results Water–energy dynamics generate important underlying gradients that determine the woody species richness even over a short spatial extent. The relationships between richness and the energy variables were linear to curvilinear, whereas those with precipitation were nonlinear and non‐monotonic. Only a small fraction of the spatially structured variation in woody species richness cannot be accounted for by the fitted variables related to climate, substrate and topography. The regional models accounted for higher variation in species richness than the water–energy models, although the water–energy model including topography performed well at the larger grain size. Elevation range was the most important predictor at all scales, probably because it corrects for ‘climatic error’ due to the unrealistic assumption that mean climate values are evenly distributed in the large grid cells. Minimum monthly potential evapotranspiration was the best climatic predictor at the larger grain size, but actual evapotranspiration was best at the smaller grain size. Energy variables were more important than precipitation individually. Precipitation was not a significant variable at the larger grain size when examined on its own, but was highly significant when an interaction term between itself and substrate was included in the model. Main conclusions The significance of range in elevation is probably because it corresponds to several aspects that may influence species diversity, such as climatic variability within grid cells, enhanced surface area, and location for refugia. The relative explanatory power of energy and water variables was high, and was influenced by the length of the climate gradient, substrate and grain size of the analysis. Energy appeared to have more influence than precipitation, but water availability is also determined by energy, substrate and topographic relief.     

Habitat is more important than climate and animal richness at shaping latitudinal variation in plant diversity in China

Species data from 249 National Nature Reserves in China were used to identify potential underlying drivers of latitudinal gradients in plant diversity. We used generalized linear models to assess correlations between predictor and plant species richness. Variance partitioning was then used to decompose the variation in plant richness into different taxonomic levels among the three groups of predictors (i.e., climate, habitat and animal). We found that species richness showed significant latitudinal trends in richness (p?<?0.001). This remained true when examining gymnosperms, angiosperms and ferns individually. Climate and habitat variables explained more variation in richness across different plant groups than did animal richness. Annual precipitation was the best climate variable across different taxonomic plants groups, and soil pH and elevation range were the best habitat variables across different taxonomic plant groups. The independent effects of habitat variables were higher than that of climate and animal variables across different taxonomic plant groups. Finally, climate, habitat heterogeneity, and animal richness explain 48.8% of the variation in total species richness, 28.2% in gymnosperm richness, 44.2% in angiosperm richness, and 38.9% in fern richness.     

Predicting the in-between: Present and future habitat suitability of an intertidal euryhaline fish

New World mangrove trees are foundation species, and their range is predicted to expand northward with climate change. Foundation species are commonly prioritized for conservation, with the goal of preserving the entire community that depends on them. However, no studies have explicitly investigated whether mangrove-dependent species' ranges will track the northward expansion of New World mangrove forests. We use the mangrove rivulus fish, Kryptolebias marmoratus, to investigate shifts in habitat suitability in response to various climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Niche models for coastal species focus on traditional climatic variables (e.g., precipitation, temperature) even though coastal habitats also are directly influenced by marine variables (e.g., sea surface salinity). We employ a novel data integration method that combines marine and climatic variables, and that accounts for model selection uncertainty using model averaging to provide robust estimates of habitat suitability. Contrary to expectation, suitability of rivulus habitat is predicted to increase in the south and decrease or remain unchanged in the north across all climate change scenarios. Thus, rivulus might experience range contraction, not expansion. Habitat became more suitable with increased salinity of the saltiest month and precipitation of the driest quarter. In laboratory settings, rivulus have higher survival, reproductive success, and growth rates in low salinities. This discrepancy suggests that some combination of the responses of rivulus and its competitors to environmental change will restrict rivulus to habitats that laboratory experiments consider suboptimal. Our models suggest that focusing conservation decisions on foundation species could overestimate habitat availability and resilience of affiliated communities while simultaneously underestimating species declines and extinction risks.