Rainfall and rats: Climatically-driven dynamics of a tropical rodent population

A five-year mark–recapture study of dusky rats (Rattus colletti) on the Adelaide River floodplain, within the Australian wet–dry tropics, revealed substantial spatial and temporal variation in demographic characteristics (abundance, condition, and rates of survival, growth, and reproduction) of the rats. Our data suggest that annual variation in the intensity and timing of monsoonal rainfall during the ‘wet-season’ is the main factor driving the demography of the rats. When total rainfall figures are modified to reflect the magnitude and duration of inundation of the floodplain each year, a link is evident between rainfall patterns and the rat population dynamics. Minor spatial variations in elevation (and hence, in the duration of inundation) across the floodplain engender large differences in rat growth rates, condition factors, survival rates, and the duration of reproductive activity each year. Because these rats have very high reproductive rates, small rain-induced differences in the duration of their reproductive season (i.e. number of litters per year) can cause massive differences in subsequent rat abundances. Hence, rat numbers can be predicted from rainfall patterns during the preceding wet-season. Similar links between rainfall, the duration of breeding, and fluctuations in abundance may typify many rodent populations in tropical and arid regions of the world.     

Influence of weather conditions on activity of tropical snakes

Abstract There are many anecdotal reports of massive day‐to‐day variation in activity levels of tropical reptiles and amphibians, and intuition suggests that weather conditions may be responsible for much of that variation. Our analysis of a large data set on the activity levels of tropical snakes and frogs confirms the existence of this short‐term variation in activity levels, reveals strong synchrony between sympatric taxa in this respect, but also shows that standard weather variables (temperature, humidity, precipitation, moonlight, atmospheric pressure) are surprisingly poor at predicting the numbers of individuals and species encountered during standardized surveys. We recorded the numbers of snakes and prey taxa (frogs) encountered on 349 nights over the course of one year on a 1.3‐km transect in the Adelaide River floodplain, in the wet–dry tropics of Australia. Frogs, water pythons (Liasis fuscus), slatey‐grey snakes (Stegonotus cucullatus) and keelbacks (Tropidonophis mairii) all showed strongly seasonal patterns of activity. After adjusting for seasonal differences, encounter rates were related to climatic conditions but different taxa responded to different weather variables. Water python activity was related to amount of moonlight, keelback activity was related to temperature, and frog activity was related to relative humidity, rainfall, temperature and moonlight. However, weather variables explained relatively little of the variation in activity levels. Strong synchrony was evident among encounter rates with various taxa (independent of season and weather conditions), suggesting that activity levels may be determined by other unmeasured factors.     

Effects of seed size and emergence time on tree seedling establishment: importance of developmental constraints

Arafura filesnakes (Acrochordus arafurae) are large (up to 2.5 m, 5 kg) aquatic nonvenomous snakes that feed entirely on fishes. A 10-year field study in the Australian wet-dry tropics revealed strong correlations between rainfall patterns, fish abundance, and snake population dynamics. All of these characteristics showed considerable annual variation. High rainfall late in the wet season (February–March) caused prolonged inundation of the floodplain. Following such years, dry-season sampling revealed that fishes were abundant, filesnakes were in good body condition, and a high proportion of adult female filesnakes were reproductive. Annual variation in recruitment to the population (as judged by the relative abundance of yearling snakes) was also correlated with fish abundance and thus, with rainfall patterns in the late-wet season. Our results fit well with those from other studies on a diverse array of aquatic and terrestrial species within the wet-dry tropics. Annual variation in rainfall patterns, via its effects on prey abundance, may drive the population dynamics of many tropical predators. Received: 28 June 1999 / Accepted: 29 February 2000     

Population demography of frillneck lizards (Chlamydosaurus kingii,Gray 1825) in the wet‐dry tropics of Australia

We explore the effects of biotic and abiotic factors on the population demography of frillneck lizards (Chlamydosaurus kingii) in the Australian wet‐dry tropics. Annual growth rates of males were significantly higher across all body sizes compared to females, resulting in a significant larger maximum body size in males. Both male and female lizards were highly philopatric and 81% of the among‐year recapture distances were less than 200 m. Juvenile and adult frillnecks were subjected to low but highly variable annual survival rates. Both proportion of juveniles and relative proportion of reproductive females showed extensive among‐year variations. No relationship was, however, observed between proportion of gravid females and that of juveniles captured during the subsequent year. High rainfall in January was negatively correlated with recruitment most likely caused by increased egg/embryo mortality due to flooding of nest sites. We therefore suggest that the lack of association between female reproduction and juvenile recruitment was due to the effects of stochastic variation in January rainfall. Lizard numbers increased during the first five years of the study followed by a decline during the subsequent four years. Our analyses show that annual variation in survival constituted the main determinant in driving the annual change in frillneck numbers. Surprisingly, no relationship was observed between fillneck population dynamics and annual variation in juvenile recruitment. We suggest that the 7‐years over which these analyses were conducted were insufficient to detect any significant effects of recruitment on lizard numbers, demonstrating the need for long‐term studies to accurately document vertebrate population demographic processes in areas experiencing stochastic variations rainfall such as the Australian wet‐dry tropics.     

Size matters: extraordinary rodent abundance on an Australian tropical flood plain

Abstract: Published estimates of the total biomass of natural populations of mammalian herbivores generally have ignored small‐bodied taxa (especially, rodents). Including such taxa may dramatically change our understanding of total biomass and energy flow in such systems. Dusky rats (Rattus colletti) are small (up to 210 g) native Australian mammals, and our 5‐year mark‐recapture study on a tropical flood plain (Adelaide River, Northern Territory) revealed that rat biomass can reach extraordinary levels (up to 4.7 t km^?2). Because their small body size results in high mass‐specific metabolic rates, a given biomass of rodents has a several‐fold higher total energy requirement than the same mass of large‐bodied herbivores. Accordingly, during some years dusky rat biomass can be double that estimated for large herbivores on the world's most productive savannas in eastern and southern Africa. The huge rodent biomass strongly suggests that the Adelaide River flood plain must be an incredibly productive habitat. Considering the immense biological importance of these productive ecosystems, flood plain conservation must be placed high on the priority list of habitats that require immediate protection.     

Does body size influence thermal biology and diet of a python (Morelia spilota imbricata)?

Current theory predicts that larger‐bodied snakes not only consume larger prey (compared with smaller individuals), but may also have a different range of prey available to them due to their thermal biology. It has been argued that smaller individuals, with lower thermal inertia (i.e. faster cooling rates at nightfall when air temperature falls and basking opportunities are limited), may be thermally restricted to foraging and hunting during the day on diurnally active prey, and have reduced capacity to hunt crepuscular and nocturnal prey species. This predictive theory was investigated by way of dietary analysis, assessment of thermal biology and thermoregulation behaviour in an ambush forager, the south‐west carpet python (Morelia spilota imbricata, Pythonidae). Eighty‐seven scats were collected from 34 individual pythons over a 3‐year radiotelemetry monitoring study. As predicted by gape size limitation, larger pythons took larger prey; however, 65% of prey items of small pythons were represented by nocturnally active, small mammals, a larger proportion than present in larger snakes. Several measures of thermal biology (absolute body temperature, thermal differential of body temperature to air temperature, maximum hourly heating and cooling rates) were not strongly affected by python body mass. Additionally, body temperature was only influenced by the behavioural choice of microhabitat selection and was not affected by python body size or position, suggesting that these behavioural choices do not allow smaller pythons to vastly increase their temporal foraging window. By coupling dietary analysis, measures of body temperature and behavioural observations of free‐ranging animals, we conclude that, contrary to theoretical predictions, a small body size does not thermally restrict the temporal window for ambush foraging in M. s. imbricata. An ontogenetic or size‐determined switch from ambush feeding to actively foraging on slower prey would account for the differences in prey taken by these animals. The concept of altered foraging behaviour warrants further investigation in this species.     

Variation in foraging success among predators and its implications for population dynamics

The effects of the expected predation rate on population dynamics have been studied intensively, but little is known about the effects of predation rate variability (i.e., predator individuals having variable foraging success) on population dynamics. In this study, variation in foraging success among predators was quantified by observing the predation of the wolf spider Pardosa pseudoannulata on the cricket Gryllus bimaculatus in the laboratory. A population model was then developed, and the effect of foraging variability on predator–prey dynamics was examined by incorporating levels of variation comparable to those quantified in the experiment. The variability in the foraging success among spiders was greater than would be expected by chance (i.e., the random allocation of prey to predators). The foraging variation was density‐dependent; it became higher as the predator density increased. A population model that incorporates foraging variation shows that the variation influences population dynamics by affecting the numerical response of predators. In particular, the variation induces negative density‐dependent effects among predators and stabilizes predator–prey dynamics.     

Conservation Implications of Rapid Shifts in the Trade of Wild African and Asian Pythons

Pythons are harvested for the international leather industry and pet trade. We analyzed the CITES export records (1999–2008) of the most intensively commercialized wild pythons (Python regius, Python sebae, Python reticulatus, Python molurus, Python curtus species complex) from African and Asian countries where reliable data on trade rates and ecology are available. Mean declared annual numbers of exported pythons were 30,000 in five African countries and 164,000 in Indonesia. Trade intensity tripled in Indonesia over the last decade, but declined in Africa. African international trade is exclusively associated with the pet market (mainly United States and Europe), whereas Asian pythons are sold mostly for luxury leather, albeit more recently also for the pet trade. A negative correlation between the annual numbers of pythons traded in Africa vs. Asia suggests a rapid and recent shift of the pressure exerted on wild populations in the two main exporting continents. We also found a strong effect of the currency exchange rate (i.e., U.S.$/€, the currencies used by the major importing countries) on African python exports: when the cost per African python increased, importers relied increasingly on Asian providers for pet trade. Overall, our data indicate that Asian pythons (especially P. reticulatus) might be threatened due to the rapidly increasing pressure, whereas the decreasing international trade in African pythons is likely more sustainable.     

Demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in semi-arid Chile: seasonality, feedback structure and climate

Here we present, to the authors' knowledge for the very first time for a small marsupial, a thorough analysis of the demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in western South America. We test the relative importance of feedback structure and climatic factors (rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index) in explaining the temporal variation in the demography of the mouse opossum. The demographic information was incorporated into a stage-structured population dynamics model and the model's predictions were compared with observed patterns. The mouse opossum's capture rates showed seasonal (within-year) and between-year variability, with individuals having higher capture rates during late summer and autumn and lower capture rates during winter and spring. There was also a strong between-year effect on capture probabilities. The reproductive (the fraction of reproductively active individuals) and recruitment rates showed a clear seasonal and a between-year pattern of variation with the peak of reproductive activity occuring during winter and early spring. In addition, the fraction of reproductive individuals was positively related to annual rainfall, while population density and annual rainfall positively influenced the recruitment rate. The survival rates were negatively related to annual rainfall. The average finite population growth rate during the study period was estimated to be 1.011 +/- 0.0019 from capture-recapture estimates. While the annual growth rate estimated from the seasonal linear matrix models was 1.026, the subadult and adult survival and maturation rates represent between 54% (winter) and 81% (summer) of the impact on the annual growth rate.     

Sacrificial males: the potential role of copulation and predation in contributing to copepod sex‐skewed ratios

Predation is thought to play a selective role in the emergence of behavioural traits in prey. Differences in behaviour between prey demographics may, therefore, be driven by predation with select components of the population being less vulnerable to predators. While under controlled conditions prey demography has been shown to have consequences for predation success, investigations linking these implications to natural prey population demographics are scarce. Here we assess predator–prey dynamics between notonectid predators (backswimmers) and Lovenula raynerae (Copepoda), key faunal groups in temperate ephemeral pond ecosystems. Using a combination of field and experimental approaches we test for the development and mechanism of predation‐induced sex‐skewed ratios. A natural population of L. raynerae was tracked over time in relation to their predator (notonectid) and prey (Cladocera) numbers. In the laboratory, L. raynerae sex ratios were also assessed over time but in the absence of predation pressure. Predation success and prey performance experiments evaluating differences between L. raynerae male, female, gravid female and copulating pairs exposed to notonectid predation were then examined. Under natural conditions, a female dominated copepod population developed over time and was correlated to predation pressure, while under predator‐free conditions non sex‐skewed prey population demographics persisted. Predator–prey laboratory trials showed no difference in vulnerability and escape performance for male, female and gravid female copepods, but pairs in copula were significantly more vulnerable to predation. This vulnerability was not shared by both sexes, with only female copepods ultimately escaping from successful predation on a mating pair. These results suggest that contact periods during copula may contribute to the development of sex‐skewed copepod ratios over time in ecosystems dominated by hexapod predators. This is discussed within the context of vertebrate and invertebrate predation and how these dissimilar types of predation are likely to have acted as selective pressures for copepod mating systems.     

Mechanisms of coexistence in diverse herbivore–carnivore assemblages: demographic,temporal and spatial heterogeneities affecting prey vulnerability

Simple models coupling the dynamics of single predators to single prey populations tend to generate oscillatory dynamics of both predator and prey, or extirpation of the prey followed by that of the predator. In reality, such oscillatory dynamics may be counteracted by prey refugia or by opportunities for prey switching by the predator in multi‐prey assemblages. How these mechanisms operate depends on relative prey vulnerability, a factor ignored in simple interactive models. I outline how compositional, temporal, demographic and spatial heterogeneities help explain the contrasting effects of top predators on large herbivore abundance and population dynamics in species‐rich African savanna ecosystems compared with less species‐diverse northern temperate or subarctic ecosystems. Demographically, mortality inflicted by predation depends on the relative size and life history stage of the prey. Because all animals eventually die and are consumed by various carnivores, the additive component of the mortality inflicted is somewhat less than the predation rate. Prey vulnerability varies annually and seasonally, and between day and night. Spatial variation in the risk of predation depends on vegetation cover as well as on the availability of food resources. During times of food shortage, herbivores become prompted to occupy more risky habitats retaining more food. Predator concentrations dependent on the abundance of primary prey species may restrict the occurrence of other potential prey species less resistant to predation. The presence of multiple herbivore species of similar size in African savannas allows the top predator, the lion, to shift its prey selection flexibly dependent on changing prey vulnerability. Hence top–down and bottom–up influences on herbivore populations are intrinsically entangled. Models coupling the population dynamics of predators and prey need to accommodate the changing influences of prey demography, temporal variation in environmental conditions, and spatial variation in the relative vulnerability of alternative prey species to predation. Synthesis While re‐established predators have had major impacts on prey populations in northern temperate regions, multiple large herbivore species typically coexist along with diverse carnivores in African savanna ecosystems. In order to explain these contrasting outcomes, certain functional heterogeneities must be recognised, including relative vulnerability of alternative prey, temporal variation in the risk of predation, demographic differences in susceptibility to predation, and spatial contrasts in exposure to predation. Food shortfalls prompt herbivores to exploit more risky habitats, meaning that top–down and bottom–up influences on prey populations are intrinsically entangled. Models coupling the interactive dynamics of predator and prey populations need to incorporate these varying influences on relative prey vulnerability.     

Spatial ecology of a threatened python (Morelia spilota imbricata) and the effects of anthropogenic habitat change

Abstract Large predators play important ecological roles, but often are sensitive to habitat changes and thus are early casualties of habitat perturbation. Pythons are among the largest predators in many Australian environments, and hence warrant conservation‐orientated research. Carpet pythons (Morelia spilota imbricata) have declined across much of south‐western Australia presumably because of habitat clearance and degradation. Information on habitat use, home range sizes and movements is needed to plan for the conservation of this important predator. We studied pythons at two study sites (Garden Island and Dryandra Woodland) with markedly different climates, habitat types and disturbance histories. We surgically implanted radio‐transmitters in 91 pythons and tracked them for periods of 1 month to 4 years. Dryandra pythons remained inactive inside tree hollows during cooler months (May–September), whereas some (especially small) pythons on Garden Island continued to move and feed. Overall weekly displacements (mean = 100–150 m) were similar at the two study sites and among sex/age classes, except that reproductive females were sedentary during summer while they were incubating eggs. Home ranges averaged 15–20 ha. Adult male pythons had larger home ranges than adult females at Dryandra, but not at Garden Island. Radio‐tracked snakes at Dryandra exhibited high site fidelity, returning to previously occupied logs after long absences and reusing tree hollows for winter shelter. Many of the logs used by snakes had been felled during plantation establishment >70 years ago, with little subsequent regeneration of source trees. In contrast, Garden Island snakes usually sheltered under dense shrubs. Habitat usage was similar among different sex/age classes of snakes at each site, except that juvenile pythons were more arboreal than adults. Although carpet pythons demonstrate great flexibility in habitat use, certain habitat elements appear critical for the persistence of viable populations. Fire plays a central role in this process, albeit in complex ways. For example, low‐intensity fires reduce the availability of hollow logs on the ground at Dryandra and fail to regenerate shrub thickets required by prey species. Paradoxically, high‐intensity fires stimulate shrub thickets and fell trees creating new logs – but might also threaten overwinter trees. Thus, the impact of disturbances (such as wildfires) on the viability of python populations will be mediated in complex ways by alteration to important microhabitats such as vegetation cover or log availability. At Dryandra, landscape management should include occasional fire events to generate new logs as well as shrub thickets used by prey. Strategic burning may also be required at Garden Island to regenerate some vegetation communities.     

Spatial variation in the demography and population dynamics of a perennial shrub (Atriplex vesicaria) under sheep grazing in semi‐arid Australian rangelands

Atriplex vesicaria Heward ex Benth. (Chenopodiaceae) is a widespread perennial shrub in southern Australia's chenopod rangelands but is sensitive to grazing. A detailed investigation of the demography and population dynamics of A. vesicaria under sheep grazing was conducted over 6.5 years at a range of sites across a typical paddock to assess the long‐term effects of grazing on the species and elucidate the mechanisms of population change under grazing. The effects of rainfall on recruitment and mortality were also examined. Six‐monthly censuses of all A. vesicaria individuals were conducted in permanent grazed and ungrazed plots at sites located across an 1100‐ha paddock. Grazing increased adult shrub mortality close to water and reduced recruitment over a broader area of the paddock, but seedling survival did not appear to be affected by grazing. As a result of these changes, the population declined on grazed plots up to 2200 m from water during the study, but the decline was greatest closer to water. The population was most dynamic at the sites furthest from the water point where it was unaffected by grazing because of the greater recruitment and mortality of young plants, but because these processes balanced out over time, population density was effectively unchanged by the end of the study. Although statistical models indicated that six‐monthly rainfall did not explain temporal variation in recruitment or mortality, rainfall nevertheless has a central role in both processes. In particular, longer periods of favourable rainfall and drought appear to have an important influence on recruitment and mortality, respectively, with heavy grazing during a drought period increasing mortality. Occasional shortages of seed or rains occurring during the warmer months when seed germination is limited possibly explain poor recruitment at sites unaffected by grazing following good rainfall.     

The use of ultrasonography to assess reproductive investment and output in pythons

Reproductive investment and output are integral fitness components, often incorporated into life‐history trade‐off models and important to population dynamics. The trade‐offs associated with reproduction can be dramatic in species such as snakes that make especially large investments into reproduction. Unfortunately, traditional methods used to determine reproductive investment and output are effective in many (but not all) situations. Thus, we used portable ultrasonography to serially estimate reproductive investment and reproductive output in three python species that exhibit significant variation in phylogeny, geographic range, body size, egg size, and clutch size: ball pythons (Python regius), Children's pythons (Antaresia childreni), and water pythons (Liasis fuscus). At each time point of measurement (range: 1–49 days pre‐oviposition), ultrasound estimates of viable clutch size were highly accurate in all three species. However, ultrasound estimates of mean viable egg mass, and thus viable clutch mass, significantly differed from the actual values (range: 23–73% error). Interestingly, this error was considerably smaller as females approached oviposition, suggesting that female pythons transfer a significant amount of water into their eggs during the week before oviposition. Thus, water balance during late‐stage egg development may be an integral part of reproductive success. The results obtained in the present study form the foundation for future assessments of reproductive investment, and also provide insight into the use of ultrasound technology to assist such efforts. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 103 , 772–778.     

Density‐dependent survival and recruitment in a long‐distance Palaearctic migrant,the Sand Martin Riparia riparia

Long‐term studies can provide powerful insights into the relative importance of different demographic and environmental factors determining avian population dynamics. Here we use 23 years of capture–mark–recapture data (1981–2003) to estimate recruitment and survival rates for a Sand Martin Riparia riparia population in Cheshire, NW England. Inter‐annual variation in recruitment and adult survival was positively related to rainfall in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds, but unrelated to weather conditions on the breeding grounds. After allowing for the effects of African rainfall, both demographic rates were negatively density‐dependent: adult survival was related to the size of the western European Sand Martin population (probably reflecting competition for resources in the shared wintering grounds) while recruitment was related to the size of the local study population in Cheshire (potentially reflecting competition for nesting sites or food). Local population size was more sensitive to variation in adult survival than to variation in recruitment, and an increase in population size after 1995 was driven mainly by the impact of more favourable conditions in the African wintering grounds on survival rates of adults. Overwinter survival in this long‐distance Palaearctic migrant is determined partly by the amount of suitable wetland foraging habitat in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds (which is limited by the extent of summer rainfall) and partly by the number of birds exploiting that habitat.     

The cost of migratory prey: seasonal changes in semi‐domestic reindeer distribution influences breeding success of Eurasian lynx in northern Norway

Migratory prey is a widespread phenomenon that has implications for predator–prey interactions. By creating large temporal variation in resource availability between seasons it becomes challenging for carnivores to secure a regular year‐round supply of food. Some predators may respond by following their migratory prey, however, most predators are sedentary and experience strong seasonal variation in resource availability. Increased predation on alternative prey may dampen such seasonal resource fluctuations, but reduced reproduction rates in predators is a predicted consequence of migratory primary prey behavior that has received little empirical attention. We used data from 23 GPS collared Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx monitored during 2007–2013 in northern Norway, to examine how spatio‐temporal variation in the migratory behavior of semi‐domestic reindeer Rangifer tarandus influences lynx spatial organization and reproductive success using estimates of seasonal home range overlap and breeding success. We found that lynx of both sexes maintained seasonally stable home ranges and exhibited site fidelity across years, independent of whether they had access to reindeer throughout the year or experienced a scarcity of reindeer in winter due to migration. However, lynx without access to reindeer in winter showed a decreased probability of reproducing and a tendency for lowered kitten survival into their first winter, when compared to female lynx with reindeer available year around. This supports the hypothesis that sedentary predators experience demographic costs in systems with migratory primary prey. Changes in the migratory behavior of ungulates, including disrupted migrations, is therefore likely to have bottom–up effects on the population dynamics of sedentary predators as well as the previously documented consequences for ungulate population dynamics.     

Identifying plausible scenarios for the establishment of invasive Burmese pythons (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Python molurus</Emphasis>) in Southern Florida

Successful invasions of secretive alien species often go unrecognized until spread has exceeded the point where control or eradication is feasible. In such situations, understanding factors that contributed to establishment can be critical to preventing subsequent introductions of previously-successful invaders or ecologically similar species. The Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus), a native to Southeast Asia, is abundant in the pet trade and is now well-established in southern Florida. Although there can be little argument that the ultimate source of Florida pythons was the pet industry, there has been limited consideration of biological support for scenarios that may have lead to their establishment. In this study we use information on python capture rates and biologically-derived population growth models to evaluate the plausibility of various scenarios for python establishment. Our results indicate that scenarios involving relatively recent establishment (post-1990) require large numbers (100–1,000) of founders or unrealistically high juvenile survivorship. Intentional simultaneous release of large numbers of pythons is unlikely and accidental release of large numbers of founders is inconsistent with the spatial and temporal pattern of pythons captures in the region. We conclude that the most parsimonious scenario for establishment of pythons in Florida involves the release of a relatively small number of founders prior to 1985. Our results demonstrate that for pythons and other species with low inherent detection probabilities, early action during incipient phases of an invasion is critical and understanding likely introduction scenarios is important for preventing similar situations from occurring elsewhere or with other species.     

Does a top predator reduce the predatory impact of an invasive mesopredator on an endangered rodent?

The mesopredator release hypothesis (MRH) predicts that reduced abundance of top‐order predators results in an increase in the abundance of smaller predators (mesopredators) due to a reduction in intra‐guild predation and competition. The irruption of mesopredators that follows the removal of top‐order predators can have detrimental impacts on the prey of the mesopredators. Here we investigated the mechanisms via which the presence of a top‐order predator can benefit prey species. We tested predictions made according to the MRH and foraging theory by contrasting the abundances of an invasive mesopredator (red fox Vulpes vulpes) and an endangered prey species (dusky hopping mouse Notomys fuscus), predator diets, and N. fuscus foraging behaviour in the presence and absence of a top‐predator (dingo Canis lupus dingo). As predicted by the MRH, foxes were more abundant where dingoes were absent. Dietary overlap between sympatric dingoes and foxes was extensive, and fox was recorded in 1 dingo scat possibly indicating intra‐guild predation. Notomys fuscus were more likely to occur in fox scats than dingo scats and as predicted by the MRH N. fuscus were less abundant in the absence of dingoes. The population increase of N. fuscus following rainfall was dampened in the absence of dingoes suggesting that mesopredator release can attenuate bottom‐up effects, although it remains conceivable that differences in grazing regimes associated with dingo exclusion could have also influenced N. fuscus abundance. Notomys fuscus exhibited lower giving‐up densities in the presence of dingoes, consistent with the prediction that their perceived risk of predation would be lower and foraging efficiency greater in the presence of a top‐predator. Our results suggest that mesopredator suppression by a top predator can create a safer environment for prey species where the frequency of fatal encounters between predators and prey is reduced and the non‐consumptive effects of predators are lower.     

Climate-driven impacts of prey abundance on the population structure of a tropical aquatic predator

In the present study we explore how annual variation in climate (late wet-season rainfall) affects population demography in a gape-limited obligate piscivorous predator, the Arafura filesnake Acrochordus arafurae in the Australian tropics. These aquatic snakes display extreme sexual dimorphism, with body sizes and relative head sizes of females much larger than those of males. Two consecutive years with low rainfall during the late wet season reduced the abundance of small but not large sized fish. Although snake residual body mass (RBM, calculated from a general linear regression of ln-transformed mass to ln-SVL) decreased after the first year with low prey availability, it was not until the second year that reduced prey abundance caused a dramatic decline in filesnake survival, and hence in population numbers. Thus, our results suggest that most snakes survived the first year of reduced prey abundance, but a successive year with low prey availability proved fatal for many animals. However, the effects of prey scarcity on RBM and survival fell disproportionately on some size classes of snakes. Medium-sized animals (large males and intermediate-sized females) were affected more dramatically than were small or large snakes. We attribute the higher survival of small snakes to their lower energy needs compared to medium-sized individuals, and the higher survival of large snakes to the continued abundance of large prey (mainly large catfish). Two successive years with low abundance of smaller sized prey thus massively modified the size-structure of the filesnake population, virtually eliminating large males and intermediate-sized females. Our field data provide a clear demonstration of the ways in which stochastic variation in climatic conditions can have dramatic effects on predator population demography, mediated via effects on prey availability.     

Phenology of Predation on Insects in a Tropical Forest: Temporal Variation in Attack Rate on Dummy Caterpillars

In communities of tropical insects, adult abundance tends to fluctuate widely, perhaps in part owing to predator–prey dynamics. Yet, temporal patterns of attack rates in tropical forest habitats have not been studied systematically; the identity of predators of insects in tropical forests is poorly known; and their responses to temporal variation in prey abundance have rarely been explored. We recorded incidence and shape of marks of attacks on dummy caterpillars (proxy of predation rate) in a sub‐montane tropical forest in Uganda during a yearlong experiment, and explored correlations with inferred caterpillar abundance. Applying the highest and lowest observed daily attack rates on clay dummies over a realistic duration of the larval stage of butterflies, indicates that the temporal variation in attack rate could cause more than 10‐fold temporal variation in caterpillar survival. Inferred predators were almost exclusively invertebrates, and beak marks of birds were very scarce. Attack rates by wasps varied more over time than those of ants. Attack rates on dummies peaked during the two wet seasons, and appeared congruent with inferred peaks in caterpillar density. This suggests (1) a functional response (predators shifting to more abundant resource) or adaptive timed phenology (predators timing activity or breeding to coincide with seasonal peaks in prey abundance) of predators, rather than a numerical response (predator populations increasing following peaks in prey abundance); and (2) that predation would dampen abundance fluctuations of tropical Lepidoptera communities.