Response of vegetation phenology to urbanization in the conterminous United States

The influence of urbanization on vegetation phenology is gaining considerable attention due to its implications for human health, cycling of carbon and other nutrients in Earth system. In this study, we examined the relationship between change in vegetation phenology and urban size, an indicator of urbanization, for the conterminous United States. We studied more than 4500 urban clusters of varying size to determine the impact of urbanization on plant phenology, with the aids of remotely sensed observations since 2003–2012. We found that phenology cycle (changes in vegetation greenness) in urban areas starts earlier (start of season, SOS) and ends later (end of season, EOS), resulting in a longer growing season length (GSL), when compared to the respective surrounding urban areas. The average difference of GSL between urban and rural areas over all vegetation types, considered in this study, is about 9 days. Also, the extended GSL in urban area is consistent among different climate zones in the United States, whereas their magnitudes are varying across regions. We found that a tenfold increase in urban size could result in an earlier SOS of about 1.3 days and a later EOS of around 2.4 days. As a result, the GSL could be extended by approximately 3.6 days with a range of 1.6–6.5 days for 25th ~ 75th quantiles, with a median value of about 2.1 days. For different vegetation types, the phenology response to urbanization, as defined by GSL, ranges from 1 to 4 days. The quantitative relationship between phenology and urbanization is of great use for developing improved models of vegetation phenology dynamics under future urbanization, and for developing change indicators to assess the impacts of urbanization on vegetation phenology.     

城市化对长三角地区主要城市植被物候的影响

基于长三角地区1998—2005年NDVI时间序列影像,利用移动平均法计算了上海、杭州、南京、常州、无锡和苏州6个城市的城区与各缓冲带的平均植被物候,并分析了城区与各缓冲带平均物候的差异及其与距城区距离间的关系.结果表明,1998—2005年间,研究区的城市化导致城区内植被始绿期提前、终绿期推后、生长期变长、NDVI的年内极差减小,离城区越近的缓冲带这些变化越明显.总体看来,城市化导致城区周围4 km范围内的植被始绿期明显提前,而终绿期推后、生长期变长、NDVI年内极差减小的趋势在离城区约10 km范围内的变化显著;城区与缓冲带植被的生长期差值和NDVI年内极差差值均与离城区距离存在显著的对数关系.     

Discrepancies in vegetation phenology trends and shift patterns in different climatic zones in middle and eastern Eurasia between 1982 and 2015

Changes in vegetation phenology directly reflect the response of vegetation growth to climate change. In this study, using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index dataset from 1982 to 2015, we extracted start date of vegetation growing season (SOS), end date of vegetation growing season (EOS), and length of vegetation growing season (LOS) in the middle and eastern Eurasia region and evaluated linear trends in SOS, EOS, and LOS for the entire study area, as well as for four climatic zones. The results show that the LOS has significantly increased by 0.27 days/year, mostly due to a significantly advanced SOS (?0.20 days/year) and a slightly delayed EOS (0.07 days/year) over the entire study area from 1982 to 2015. The vegetation phenology trends in the four climatic zones are not continuous throughout the 34‐year period. Furthermore, discrepancies in the shifting patterns of vegetation phenology trend existed among different climatic zones. Turning points (TP) of SOS trends in the Cold zone, Temperate zone, and Tibetan Plateau zone occurred in the mid‐ or late 1990s. The advanced trends of SOS in the Cold zone, Temperate zone, and Tibetan Plateau zone exhibited accelerated, stalled, and reversed patterns after the corresponding TP, respectively. The TP did not occurred in Cold‐Temperate zone, where the SOS showed a consistent and continuous advance. TPs of EOS trends in the Cold zone, Cold‐Temperate zone, Temperate zone, and Tibetan Plateau zone occurred in the late 1980s or mid‐1990s. The EOS in the Cold zone, Cold‐Temperate zone, Temperate zone, and Tibetan Plateau zone showed weak advanced or delayed trends after the corresponding TP, which were comparable with the delayed trends before the corresponding TP. The shift patterns of LOS trends were primarily influenced by the shift patterns of SOS trends and were also heterogeneous within climatic zones.     

中国东北城乡植被物候时空变化及其对地表温度的响应

以中国东北地区的沈阳、长春、哈尔滨3个大城市及其周边的乡村为研究单元,在像元尺度上采用小波变换法对长时间序列中分辨率成像光谱仪(Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS)增强植被指数(Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI)数据滤除噪声数据后重建平滑的EVI曲线,基于EVI曲线,采用动态阈值法提取出研究区2009—2016年植被关键物候期参数指标,即植被生长季开始时间(Start of Growing Season, SOS)和结束时间(End of Growing Season, EOS),分析各研究单元植被物候时空变化特征及其对地表温度的响应特征。结果表明:各研究单元SOS和EOS值的空间分布图存在明显的城乡差异。每一个像元所属的实际位置距离城区中心越近,其SOS值越小,EOS值越大,表明植被生长季开始日期早结束日期晚,整个植被生长期时间变长。各研究单元植被物候参数指标的年际变化趋势具有一定的相似性,即SOS随时间均呈现出提前趋势,且城区和乡村的SOS年际变化趋势保持一致,变化速率各不相同。研究区2012年的SOS值是研究时段内的最大值,从植被物候期反映来看,该年是一个最冷年,这与当年受寒潮影响,出现暴雪,低温等极端天气的气候现象相吻合。各研究单元年均地表温度(Land Surface Temperature,LST)与对应的植被关键物候期参数均有显著的相关性,SOS与LST呈显著负相关,EOS与LST呈高度正相关。即植被物候同期的平均温度越高,植被生长季的起始时间越早,结束时间越晚。     

Extension of the growing season due to delayed autumn over mid and high latitudes in North America during 1982–2006

Aim We intend to characterize and understand the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation phenology shifts in North America during the period 1982–2006. Location North America. Methods A piecewise logistic model is used to extract phenological metrics from a time‐series data set of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). An extensive comparison between satellite‐derived phenological metrics and ground‐based phenology observations for 14,179 records of 73 plant species at 802 sites across North America is made to evaluate the information about phenology shifts obtained in this study. Results The spatial pattern of vegetation phenology shows a strong dependence on latitude but a substantial variation along the longitudinal gradient. A delayed dormancy onset date (0.551 days year^?1, P= 0.013) and an extended growing season length (0.683 days year^?1, P= 0.011) are found over the mid and high latitudes in North America during 1982–2006, while no significant trends in greenup onset are observed. The delayed dormancy onset date and extended growing season length are mainly found in the shrubland biome. An extensive validation indicates a strong robustness of the satellite‐derived phenology information. Main conclusions It is the delayed dormancy onset date, rather than an advanced greenup onset date, that has contributed to the prolonged length of the growing season over the mid and high latitudes in North America during recent decades. Shrublands contribute the most to the delayed dormancy onset date and the extended growing season length. This shift of vegetation phenology implies that vegetation activity in North America has been altered by climatic change, which may further affect ecosystem structure and function in the continent.     

藏北高原植被物候时空动态变化的遥感监测研究

利用遥感数据提取的植被物候格局及时空变化特征能很好地反映区域尺度上植被对全球变化的响应。目前关于青藏高原地区植被物候的少量报道基本上是基于物候站点的观测记录展开分析的。该文基于非对称高斯拟合算法重建了藏北高原2001-2010年的MODIS EVI (增强型植被指数)时间序列影像, 然后利用动态阈值法提取整个藏北高原2001-2010年植被覆盖的重要物候信息, 包括植被返青期、枯黄期与生长季长度, 分析了植被物候10年间平均状况的空间分异特征以及年际变化情况, 并结合站点观测记录分析了气温和降水对植被物候变化的影响, 结果表明: (1)藏北高原植被返青期在空间上表现出从东南到西北逐渐推迟的水平地带性与东南高山峡谷区的垂直地带性相结合的特征, 近60%区域的植被返青期提前, 特别是高山地区; (2)植被枯黄期的年际变化不太明显, 大部分地区都表现为自然的年际波动; (3)生长季长度的时空变化特征由植被返青期和枯黄期二者决定, 但主要受返青期提前影响, 大部分地区生长季长度延长; (4)研究区内不同气候区划植被物候的年际变化以那曲高山谷地亚寒带半湿润区和青南高原亚寒带半干旱区的植被返青期提前和生长季延长程度最为明显; (5)基于气象台站数据分析气候变化对物候的影响发现, 返青期提前及生长季延长主要受气温升高的影响, 与降水的关系尚不明确。     

基于生态地理分区的大兴安岭植被物候时空变化

植被与气候的关系十分密切,植被物候可作为全球气候变化的指示器.大兴安岭位于我国最北部,对气候变化较为敏感,研究该区植被物候的时空变化对评估全球变化对陆地生态系统的影响具有重要意义.依据中国生态地理区划图,将大兴安岭划分为4个生态研究区域,本文利用GIMMS NDVI 3g遥感数据集分析1982—2012年大兴安岭整体及各生态地理分区植被物候变化.结果表明: 研究期间,所有分区植被生长季开始日期均表现为提前趋势,生长季结束日期均表现为推迟趋势.植被物候对气候因子变化敏感,尤其是对气温的敏感程度高于降水,其中,北段山地落叶针叶林区植被生长季开始日期与春季温度呈显著负相关;除南段草原区外,其他3个分区植被生长季结束日期均与秋季降水呈显著负相关.从整体来看,植被物候随海拔、纬度的变化趋势明显.     

Satellite Evidence of Phenological Differences Between Urbanized and Rural Areas of the Eastern United States Deciduous Broadleaf Forest

We used a 10-year record (1990–99) of composited and cloud-screened reflectances from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) to test for phenological differences between urban and rural areas in the eastern United States deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF). We hypothesized that well-documented urban heat island effects would be associated with alterations in temperature-sensitive vegetation phenology. Our objectives were thus (a) to investigate possible differences in the start of the growing season (SOS) and end of the growing season (EOS) between the urban and DBF land covers, (b) to investigate related differences in greenness amplitude and fractional cover, and (c) to develop a generalized additive model (GAM) to predict the spatial variation of observed differences. By analyzing individual 1° latitude by 1° longitude blocks, we found that, on average, urbanization is associated with a growing season expansion of 7.6 days. Most of this effect is caused by an earlier SOS in urban areas. In all cases, urban regions had lower fractional cover and greenness amplitude. The GAM model failed to produce a viable model for differences in EOS, probably because it is dominated by photoperiod controls with only a minor temperature impact. SOS differences were predicted with an accuracy of about 2.4 days, with a GAM consisting of smoothed functions of mean annual average temperature, urban fractional cover, and the urban vs DBF greenness amplitude difference. We speculate that evidence of a phenological response to warming indicates that global warming, without reduction in DBF vegetation cover and greenness amplitude, may increase carbon sequestration in mesic deciduous forests. Received 6 June 2001; accepted 23 October 2001.     

Drought footprint on European ecosystems between 1999 and 2010 assessed by remotely sensed vegetation phenology and productivity

Drought affects more people than any other natural disaster but there is little understanding of how ecosystems react to droughts. This study jointly analyzed spatio‐temporal changes of drought patterns with vegetation phenology and productivity changes between 1999 and 2010 in major European bioclimatic zones. The Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used as drought indicator whereas changes in growing season length and vegetation productivity were assessed using remote sensing time‐series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Drought spatio‐temporal variability was analyzed using a Principal Component Analysis, leading to the identification of four major drought events between 1999 and 2010 in Europe. Correspondence Analysis showed that at the continental scale the productivity and phenology reacted differently to the identified drought events depending on ecosystem and land cover. Northern and Mediterranean ecosystems proved to be more resilient to droughts in terms of vegetation phenology and productivity developments. Western Atlantic regions and Eastern Europe showed strong agglomerations of decreased productivity and shorter vegetation growing season length, indicating that these ecosystems did not buffer the effects of drought well. In a climate change perspective, increase in drought frequency or intensity may result in larger impacts over these ecosystems, thus management and adaptation strategies should be strengthened in these areas of concerns.     

Climate controls on vegetation phenological patterns in northern mid- and high latitudes inferred from MODIS data

Recent studies using both field measurements and satellite-derived-vegetation indices have demonstrated that global warming is influencing vegetation growth and phenology. To accurately predict the future response of vegetation to climate variation, a thorough understanding of vegetation phenological cycles and their relationship to temperature and precipitation is required. In this paper, vegetation phenological transition dates identified using data from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) in 2001 are linked with MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data from the northern hemisphere between 35°N and 70°N. The results show well-defined patterns dependent on latitude, in which vegetation greenup gradually migrates northward starting in March, and dormancy spreads southward from late September. Among natural vegetation land-cover types, the growing-season length for forests is strongly correlated with variation in mean annual LST. For urban areas, the onset of greenup is 4–9 days earlier on average, and the onset of dormancy is about 2–16 days later, relative to adjacent natural vegetation. This difference (especially for urban vs. forests) is apparently related to urban heat island effects that result in both the average spring temperature and the mean annual temperature in urban areas being about 1–3°C higher relative to rural areas. The results also indicate that urban heat island effects on vegetation phenology are stronger in North America than in Europe and Asia. Finally, the onset of forest greenup at continental scales can be effectively described using a thermal time-chilling model, which can be used to infer the delay or advance of greenup onset in relation to climatic warming at global scale.     

GLOBE students, teachers, and scientists demonstrate variable differences between urban and rural leaf phenology

The urban heat island effect, classically associated with high impervious surface area (ISA), low vegetation fractional cover (Fr), and high land surface temperature (LST), has been linked to changing patterns of vegetation phenology, especially spring growth. In this study, a collaboration with the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) program, we investigated the effect of the urban environment on the timing of leaf budburst of native deciduous trees in seven cities: Asia (Tokyo, Japan; Bangkok and Korat, Thailand), Europe (Jyväskylä, Finland; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan), Africa (Dakar, Senegal), and North America (Fairbanks, Alaska). The cities differed not only in population size but also in climate and vegetation type. Using Landsat satellite imagery from each city, we calculated LST, Fr, and ISA, and classified sites within each study area as rural or urban. The timing of leaf flushing, measured by students using GLOBE budburst protocols, was statistically different within all cities, with absolute differences ranging from 1 to 23 days. We assessed the classic urban phenology paradigm, which proposes higher LST, lower Fr, and earlier budburst in urban areas of temperate cities. Of the four temperate cities, Tokyo followed the classic paradigm, but no other city demonstrated consistent support. Urban budburst was advanced in three of the four temperate cities, but in only one of the three tropical cities. Results suggest that while vegetation phenology is consistently different between urban and rural areas, a uniform paradigm based on the explanatory variables in this study did not emerge. Although not testable here, it is likely that alterations to chilling requirements in temperate climates and humidity in tropical climates may also influence observed budburst differences.     

日光诱导叶绿素荧光对亚热带常绿针叶林物候的追踪

植被物候期(春季返青和秋季衰老)是表征生物响应和陆地碳循环的基础信息。由于常绿针叶林冠层绿度的季节变动较弱,遥感提取常绿针叶林的物候信息存在着较大的不确定性,是目前区域物候监测中的难点。利用MODIS植被指数(归一化植被指数NDVI和增强型植被指数EVI)、GOME-2日光诱导叶绿素荧光(SIF)和通量数据(总初级生产力GPP)估算2007—2011年亚热带常绿针叶林物候期,用来比较三类遥感指数估算常绿针叶林物候的差异。结果表明:基于表征光合作用物候的通量GPP数据估算得到5年内亚热带常绿针叶林生长季开始时间(SOS_(GPP))为第63天,生长季结束时间(EOS_(GPP))为第324天,生长季长度为272天;基于反映植被光合作用特征的SIF曲线获得物候信息要滞后GPP物候期,其中生长季开始时间滞后19天,生长季结束时间滞后2天;基于传统植被指数NDVI和EVI的物候期滞后GPP物候期的时间要大于SIF滞后期,其中植被指数SOS滞后SOS_(GPP)31天,植被指数EOS滞后EOS_(GPP)10—17天。虽然基于3种遥感指数估算的春季和秋季物候都滞后于通量GPP的物候期,但是卫星SIF的物候信息能够更好地捕捉常绿针叶林的生长阶段。同时,春季温度是影响森林生长季开始时间的最重要因素;秋季水分和辐射是影响生长季结束时间的关键因素。由此可见,SIF估算的亚热带常绿针叶林的春季和秋季物候的滞后时间要短于传统植被指数,能更好地追踪常绿林光合作用的季节性,为深入研究陆地生态系统碳循环及其对气候变化的响应提供重要的基础。     

The North Atlantic Oscillation and regional phenology prediction over Europe

We present an integrated modeling study designed to investigate changes in ecosystem level phenology over Europe associated with changes in climate pattern, by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We derived onset dates from processed NDVI data sets and used growing degree day (GDD) summations from the NCEP re‐analysis to calibrate and validate a phenology model to predict the onset of the growing season over Europe. In a cross‐validation hindcast, the model (PHENOM) is able to explain 63% of the variance in onset date for grid cells containing at least 50% mixed and boreal forest. Using a model developed from previous work we performed climate change scenarios, generating synthetic temperature and GDD distributions under a hypothetically increasing NAO. These new distributions were used to drive PHENOM and project changes in the timing of onset for forested cells over Europe. Results from the climate change scenarios indicate that, if the current trend in the NAO continues, there is the potential for a continued advance to the start of the growing season by as much as 13 days in some areas.     

Divergent phenological response to hydroclimate variability in forested mountain watersheds

Mountain watersheds are primary sources of freshwater, carbon sequestration, and other ecosystem services. There is significant interest in the effects of climate change and variability on these processes over short to long time scales. Much of the impact of hydroclimate variability in forest ecosystems is manifested in vegetation dynamics in space and time. In steep terrain, leaf phenology responds to topoclimate in complex ways, and can produce specific and measurable shifts in landscape forest patterns. The onset of spring is usually delayed at a specific rate with increasing elevation (often called Hopkins' Law; Hopkins, 1918), reflecting the dominant controls of temperature on greenup timing. Contrary with greenup, leaf senescence shows inconsistent trends along elevation gradients. Here, we present mechanisms and an explanation for this variability and its significance for ecosystem patterns and services in response to climate. We use moderate‐resolution imaging spectro‐radiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to derive landscape‐induced phenological patterns over topoclimate gradients in a humid temperate broadleaf forest in southern Appalachians. These phenological patterns are validated with different sets of field observations. Our data demonstrate that divergent behavior of leaf senescence with elevation is closely related to late growing season hydroclimate variability in temperature and water balance patterns. Specifically, a drier late growing season is associated with earlier leaf senescence at low elevation than at middle elevation. The effect of drought stress on vegetation senescence timing also leads to tighter coupling between growing season length and ecosystem water use estimated from observed precipitation and runoff generation. This study indicates increased late growing season drought may be leading to divergent ecosystem response between high and low elevation forests. Landscape‐induced phenological patterns are easily observed over wide areas and may be used as a unique diagnostic for sources of ecosystem vulnerability and sensitivity to hydroclimate change.     

Interannual variability of plant phenology in tussock tundra: modelling interactions of plant productivity, plant phenology, snowmelt and soil thaw

We present a linked model of plant productivity, plant phenology, snowmelt and soil thaw in order to estimate interannual variability of arctic plant phenology and its effects on plant productivity. The model is tested using 8 years of soil temperature data, and three years of bud break data of Betula nana. Because the factors that trigger the end of the growing season of arctic vegetation are less well known than those of the start of the growing season, three hypotheses were formulated and tested for their effects on productivity and its sensitivity to climate change; the hypothesised factors determining the end of the growing season were frost, photoperiod and periodic constraints. The performance of the soil thermal model was good; both the onset of soil thaw in spring and the initiation of freezing in autumn were predicted correctly in most cases. The phenology model predicted the bud break date of Betula nana closely for the three different years. The soil thaw model predicted similar growing season start dates under current climate as the models based on sum of temperatures, but it made significantly different predictions under climate change scenarios, probably because of the non‐linear interactions between snowmelt and soil thaw. The uncertainty about the driving factors for the end of the growing season, in turn, resulted in uncertainty in the interannual variability of the simulated annual gross primary productivity (GPP). The interannual variability ranged from ? 25 to + 26% of the mean annual GPP for the frost hypothesis, from ? 20 to + 20% for the photoperiod hypothesis and only from ? 7 to + 7% for the periodic hypothesis. The different hypotheses also resulted in different sensitivity to climate change, with the frost hypothesis resulting in 30% higher annual GPP values than the periodic hypothesis when air temperatures were increased by 3 °C.     

北京市植物物候对热岛效应的响应

都市的快速发展致使城市热岛效应日渐加剧。城市绿化对缓解热岛效应有一定的作用,但同时其物候也受到了影响。本文基于遥感影像数据,通过对照北京市热岛区与非热岛区、不同热岛强度等级的植物物候差别,研究热岛效应对植物物候的影响。采用Landsat 8影像对北京市地表温度进行反演,结合空间分析进行热岛效应分区分级识别;通过MOD13A1的归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据,采用Dallimer平均值法和动态阈值法提取植被生长季始期(SOG)、生长季末期(EOG)、生长季长度(LOG)等重要植被物候参数,研究植被物候在热岛区与非热岛区、不同热岛强度等级之间的差异。结果表明:北京市夏季与冬季相比,热岛效应更为显著;利用Dallimer平均值法提取的北京市热岛区SOG比非热岛区提前4 d,EOG延迟9 d,LOG延长13 d;利用动态阈值法提取的SOG提早10 d,EOG推迟4d,LOG延长14 d,动态阈值法提取的物候信息与观测的物候信息更为接近;随着热岛强度等级提高,SOG提前,EOG推迟,LOG延长。本研究丰富了我国华北地区植被物候对热岛效应的响应机制,同时对研究全球变暖对生态系统的影响具有一定价值。     

Land Surface Phenology in the Tropics: The Role of Climate and Topography in a Snow-Free Mountain

Leaf phenology represents a major temporal component of ecosystem functioning, and understanding the drivers of seasonal variation in phenology is essential to understand plant responses to climate change. We assessed the patterns and drivers of land surface phenology, a proxy for leafing phenology, for the meridional Espinhaço Range, a South American tropical mountain comprising a mosaic of savannas, dry woodlands, montane vegetation and moist forests. We used a 14-year time series of MODIS/NDVI satellite images, acquired between 2001 and 2015, and extracted phenological indicators using the TIMESAT algorithm. We obtained precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, land surface temperature from the MODIS MOD11A2 product, and cloud cover frequency from the MODIS MOD09GA product. We also calculated the topographic wetness index and simulated clear-sky radiation budgets based on the SRTM elevation model. The relationship between phenology and environmental drivers was assessed using general linear models. Temporal displacement in the start date of the annual growth season was more evident than variations in season length among vegetation types, indicating a possible temporal separation in the use of resources. Season length was inversely proportional to elevation, decreasing 1.58 days per 100 m. Green-up and senescence rates were faster where annual temperature amplitude was higher. We found that water and light availability, modulated by topography, are the most likely drivers of land surface phenology in the region, determining the start, end and length of the growing season. Temperature had an important role in determining the rates of leaf development and the strength of vegetation seasonality, suggesting that tropical vegetation is also sensitive to latitudinal temperature changes, regardless of the elevational gradient. Our work improves the current understanding of phenological strategies in the seasonal tropics and emphasizes the importance of topography in shaping light and water availability for leaf development in snow-free mountains.     

Landscape controls on the timing of spring,autumn, and growing season length in mid‐Atlantic forests

The timing of spring leaf development, trajectories of summer leaf area, and the timing of autumn senescence have profound impacts to the water, carbon, and energy balance of ecosystems, and are likely influenced by global climate change. Limited field‐based and remote‐sensing observations have suggested complex spatial patterns related to geographic features that influence climate. However, much of this variability occurs at spatial scales that inhibit a detailed understanding of even the dominant drivers. Recognizing these limitations, we used nonlinear inverse modeling of medium‐resolution remote sensing data, organized by day of year, to explore the influence of climate‐related landscape factors on the timing of spring and autumn leaf‐area trajectories in mid‐Atlantic, USA forests. We also examined the extent to which declining summer greenness (greendown) degrades the precision and accuracy of observations of autumn offset of greenness. Of the dominant drivers of landscape phenology, elevation was the strongest, explaining up to 70% of the spatial variation in the onset of greenness. Urban land cover was second in importance, influencing spring onset and autumn offset to a distance of 32 km from large cities. Distance to tidal water also influenced phenological timing, but only within ~5 km of shorelines. Additionally, we observed that (i) growing season length unexpectedly increases with increasing elevation at elevations below 275 m; (ii) along gradients in urban land cover, timing of autumn offset has a stronger effect on growing season length than does timing of spring onset; and (iii) summer greendown introduces bias and uncertainty into observations of the autumn offset of greenness. These results demonstrate the power of medium grain analyses of landscape‐scale phenology for understanding environmental controls on growing season length, and predicting how these might be affected by climate change.     

Large‐scale prerain vegetation green‐up across Africa

Information on the response of vegetation to different environmental drivers, including rainfall, forms a critical input to ecosystem models. Currently, such models are run based on parameters that, in some cases, are either assumed or lack supporting evidence (e.g., that vegetation growth across Africa is rainfall‐driven). A limited number of studies have reported that the onset of rain across Africa does not fully explain the onset of vegetation growth, for example, drawing on the observation of prerain flush effects in some parts of Africa. The spatial extent of this prerain green‐up effect, however, remains unknown, leaving a large gap in our understanding that may bias ecosystem modelling. This paper provides the most comprehensive spatial assessment to‐date of the magnitude and frequency of the different patterns of phenology response to rainfall across Africa and for different vegetation types. To define the relations between phenology and rainfall, we investigated the spatial variation in the difference, in number of days, between the start of rainy season (SRS) and start of vegetation growing season (SOS); and between the end of rainy season (ERS) and end of vegetation growing season (EOS). We reveal a much more extensive spread of prerain green‐up over Africa than previously reported, with prerain green‐up being the norm rather than the exception. We also show the relative sparsity of postrain green‐up, confined largely to the Sudano‐Sahel region. While the prerain green‐up phenomenon is well documented, its large spatial extent was not anticipated. Our results, thus, contrast with the widely held view that rainfall drives the onset and end of the vegetation growing season across Africa. Our findings point to a much more nuanced role of rainfall in Africa's vegetation growth cycle than previously thought, specifically as one of a set of several drivers, with important implications for ecosystem modelling.     

Urban environments provide new perspectives for forecasting vegetation phenology responses under climate warming

Given that already-observed temperature increase within cities far exceeds the projected global temperature rise by the end of the century, urban environments often offer a unique opportunity for studying ecosystem response to future warming. However, the validity of thermal gradients in space serving as a substitute for those in time is rarely tested. Here, we investigated vegetation phenology dynamics in China's 343 cities and empirically test whether phenological responses to spatial temperature rise in urban settings can substitute for those to temporal temperature rise in their natural counterparts based on satellite-derived vegetation phenology and land surface temperature from 2003 to 2018. We found prevalent advancing spring phenology with “high confidence” and delaying autumn phenology with “medium confidence” under the context of widespread urban warming. Furthermore, we showed that space cannot substitute for time in predicting phenological shifts under climate warming at the national scale and for most cities. The thresholds of ~11°C mean annual temperature and ~600 mm annual precipitation differentiated the magnitude of phenological sensitivity to temperature across space and through time. Below those thresholds, there existed stronger advanced spring phenology and delayed autumn phenology across the spatial urbanization gradients than through time, and vice versa. Despite the complex and diverse relationships between phenological sensitivities across space and through time, we found that the directions of the temperature changes across spatial gradients were converged (i.e., mostly increased), but divergent through temporal gradients (i.e., increased or decreased without a predominant direction). Similarly, vegetation phenology changes more uniformly over space than through time. These results suggested that the urban environments provide a real-world condition to understand vegetation phenology response under future warming.