Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life-cycle models of spring Chinook salmon

Habitat conditions mediate the effects of climate, so neighboring populations with differing habitat conditions may differ in their responses to climate change. We have previously observed that juvenile survival in Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon is strongly correlated with summer temperature in some populations and with fall streamflow in others. Here, we explore potential differential responses of the viability of four of these populations to changes in streamflow and temperature that might result from climate change. First, we linked predicted changes in air temperature and precipitation from several General Circulation Models to a local hydrological model to project streamflow and air temperature under two climate‐change scenarios. Then, we developed a stochastic, density‐dependent life‐cycle model with independent environmental effects in juvenile and ocean stages, and parameterized the model for each population. We found that mean abundance decreased 20–50% and the probability of quasi‐extinction increased dramatically (from 0.1–0.4 to 0.3–0.9) for all populations in both scenarios. Differences between populations were greater in the more moderate climate scenario than in the more extreme, hot/dry scenario. Model results were relatively robust to realistic uncertainty in freshwater survival parameters in all scenarios. Our results demonstrate that detailed population models can usefully incorporate climate‐change predictions, and that global warming poses a direct threat to freshwater stages in these fish, increasing their risk of extinction. Because differences in habitat may contribute to the individualistic population responses we observed, we infer that maintaining habitat diversity will help buffer some species from the impacts of climate change.     

Population diversity in salmon: linkages among response,genetic and life history diversity

Response diversity and asynchrony are important for stability and resilience of meta‐populations, however little is known about the mechanisms that might drive such processes. In salmon populations, response diversity and asynchrony have been linked to the stability of their meta‐populations and the fisheries that integrate across them. We examined how population diversity influenced response diversity and asynchrony in 42 populations of Chinook salmon from the Fraser River, British Columbia. We examined diversity in the survival responses to large‐scale ocean climate variables for populations that differed in life history. Different life‐histories responded differently to ocean environmental conditions. For instance, an increase of offshore temperature was associated with decreased survival for a population with ocean rearing juveniles but increased survival for a population with stream rearing juveniles. In a second analysis, we examined asynchrony in abundance between populations, which we then correlated with life history, spatial, and genetic diversity. Populations that were more genetically distant had the most different population dynamics. Collectively, these results suggest that fine‐scale population diversity can contribute to the asynchrony and response diversity that underpins the stability of fisheries or metapopulation dynamics, and emphasize the need to manage and conserve this scale of population diversity.     

Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.     

Influence of hydrologic attributes on brown trout recruitment in low-latitude range margins

Factors controlling brown trout Salmo trutta recruitment in Mediterranean areas are largely unknown, despite the relevance this may have for fisheries management. The effect of hydrological variability on survival of young brown trout was studied during seven consecutive years in five resident populations from the southern range of the species distribution. Recruit density at the end of summer varied markedly among year-classes and rivers during the study period. Previous work showed that egg density the previous fall did not account for more than 50% of the observed variation in recruitment density. Thus, we expected that climatic patterns, as determinants of discharge and water temperature, would play a role in the control of young trout abundance. We tested this by analyzing the effects of flow variation and predictability on young trout survival during the spawning to emergence and the summer drought periods. Both hatching and emergence times and length of hatching and emergence periods were similar between years within each river but varied considerably among populations, due to differences in water temperature. Interannual variation in flow attributes during spawning to emergence and summer drought affected juvenile survival in all populations, once the effect of endogenous factors was removed. Survival rate was significantly related to the timing, magnitude and duration of extreme water conditions, and to the rate of change in discharge during hatching and emergence times in most rivers. The magnitude and duration of low flows during summer drought appeared to be a critical factor for survival of young trout. Our findings suggest that density-independent factors, i.e., hydrological variability, play a central role in the population dynamics of brown trout in populations from low-latitude range margins. Reported effects of hydrologic attributes on trout survival are likely to be increasingly important if, as predicted, climate change leads to greater extremes and variability of flow regimes.     

河流流量对流域下垫面特性的响应

以美国切斯比克湾地区为例,对该区域150个小流域的下垫面特性(包括土地利用类型、地面不透水系数和土壤物理属性)进行了提取,根据1984—2004年间逐日流量观测数据计算出了33个水文指标,运用逐步回归方法在不同地理区分析了9种下垫面特性对其中17个重要水文指标的影响。结果表明:随着草地和林地比例的增加,流量趋于减小、流量变化趋于稳定,随着建设用地和不透水层的增加,流量增加、流量变化剧烈,随着土壤水文组等级的升高,流量减少;在整个切斯比克湾流域,对流域下垫面特性响应最为显著的水文指标是高脉冲个数及历时,在阿巴拉契亚高地地区响应最为显著的水文指标是年极值流量、高脉冲个数及历时,在皮德蒙特山地响应最为显著的水文指标是高脉冲个数及历时,在沿海平原地区响应最为显著的水文指标是高脉冲个数及历时、流量变化的速率与频率。     

Impacts of drought and predicted effects of climate change on fish growth in temperate Australian lakes

Climate change is expected to negatively impact many freshwater environments due to reductions in stream‐flow and increases in temperature. These conditions, however, can already be found today in areas experiencing significant drought; current observations of species' responses to droughts can be used to make predictions about their future responses to climate change. Using otolith analysis, we recreated golden perch (Macquaria ambigua) growth chronologies from two temperate lake populations in southeastern Australia over a 15‐year period pre‐ and during a supraseasonal drought. We related interannual growth variation to landscape‐scale changes in temperature and hydrological regimes: fish growth declined as water levels in the lakes dropped during the drought, but this effect was offset by increased growth in warmer years. We hypothesize that golden perch are responding to fluctuations in food availability and intraspecific competition related to water level and to an optimization of physiological growth conditions related to increases in growing season length. Based on our analyses, we made predictions of future growth under a number of climate change scenarios that incorporate forecast deviations in stream‐flows and air temperature. Despite climatic models predicting significant declines in future water availability, fish growth may increase due to a disproportionate lengthening of the growing season. As the two lakes are at the limit of the southerly range of golden perch, our results are consistent with previous findings of climate‐change driven latitudinal range shifts in a poleward direction. We discuss assumptions concerning the constancy of ecological interactions into the future that warrant further study. Our research provides a novel application of biochronological analysis that could be used elsewhere to further our knowledge of species responses to changing environments.     

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density‐dependence in eastern brook trout

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density‐independent) factors and intrinsic (density‐dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density‐dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) vs. density‐dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10‐year capture‐mark‐recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete‐time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type, and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density‐dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate‐driven environmental change.     

The devil is in the detail: Nonadditive and context‐dependent plant population responses to increasing temperature and precipitation

In climate change ecology, simplistic research approaches may yield unrealistically simplistic answers to often more complicated problems. In particular, the complexity of vegetation responses to global climate change begs a better understanding of the impacts of concomitant changes in several climatic drivers, how these impacts vary across different climatic contexts, and of the demographic processes underlying population changes. Using a replicated, factorial, whole‐community transplant experiment, we investigated regional variation in demographic responses of plant populations to increased temperature and/or precipitation. Across four perennial forb species and 12 sites, we found strong responses to both temperature and precipitation change. Changes in population growth rates were mainly due to changes in survival and clonality. In three of the four study species, the combined increase in temperature and precipitation reflected nonadditive, antagonistic interactions of the single climatic changes for population growth rate and survival, while the interactions were additive and synergistic for clonality. This disparity affects the persistence of genotypes, but also suggests that the mechanisms behind the responses of the vital rates differ. In addition, survival effects varied systematically with climatic context, with wetter and warmer + wetter transplants showing less positive or more negative responses at warmer sites. The detailed demographic approach yields important mechanistic insights into how concomitant changes in temperature and precipitation affect plants, which makes our results generalizable beyond the four study species. Our comprehensive study design illustrates the power of replicated field experiments in disentangling the complex relationships and patterns that govern climate change impacts across real‐world species and landscapes.     

Genotypic variation in phenological plasticity: Reciprocal common gardens reveal adaptive responses to warmer springs but not to fall frost

Species faced with rapidly shifting environments must be able to move, adapt, or acclimate in order to survive. One mechanism to meet this challenge is phenotypic plasticity: altering phenotype in response to environmental change. Here, we investigated the magnitude, direction, and consequences of changes in two key phenology traits (fall bud set and spring bud flush) in a widespread riparian tree species, Populus fremontii. Using replicated genotypes from 16 populations from throughout the species’ thermal range, and reciprocal common gardens at hot, warm, and cool sites, we identified four major findings: (a) There are significant genetic (G), environmental (E), and GxE components of variation for both traits across three common gardens; (b) The magnitude of phenotypic plasticity is correlated with provenance climate, where trees from hotter, southern populations exhibited up to four times greater plasticity compared to the northern, frost‐adapted populations; (c) Phenological mismatches are correlated with higher mortality as the transfer distances between provenance and garden increase; and (d) The relationship between plasticity and survival depends not only on the magnitude and direction of environmental transfer, but also on the type of environmental stress (i.e., heat or freezing), and how particular traits have evolved in response to that stress. Trees transferred to warmer climates generally showed small to moderate shifts in an adaptive direction, a hopeful result for climate change. Trees experiencing cooler climates exhibited large, non‐adaptive changes, suggesting smaller transfer distances for assisted migration. This study is especially important as it deconstructs trait responses to environmental cues that are rapidly changing (e.g., temperature and spring onset) and those that are fixed (photoperiod), and that vary across the species’ range. Understanding the magnitude and adaptive nature of phenotypic plasticity of multiple traits responding to multiple environmental cues is key to guiding restoration management decisions as climate continues to change.     

Size‐dependent survival of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in summer: effects of water temperature and stream flow

A 5 year individual‐based data set was used to estimate size‐specific survival rates in a wild brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis population in a stream network encompassing a mainstem and three tributaries (1·5–6 m wetted width), western Massachusetts, U.S.A. The relationships between survival in summer and temperature and flow metrics derived from continuous monitoring data were then tested. Increased summer temperatures significantly reduced summer survival rates for S. fontinalis in almost all size classes in all four sites throughout the network. In contrast, extreme low summer flows reduced survival of large fish, but only in small tributaries, and had no significant effects on fish in smaller size classes in any location. These results provide direct evidence of a link between season‐specific survival and environmental factors likely to be affected by climate change and have important consequences for the management of both habitats and populations.     

Tree-ring growth of Pinus nigra Arn. subsp. pallasiana under different climate conditions throughout western Anatolia

Pinus nigra Arn. subsp. pallasiana (black pine) is one of the most widely grown tree in Turkey. It is the third most widely distributed tree species after Quercus L. and Pinus brutia Ten. Black pine grows in 20% of all forested areas in Turkey. In this dendroecological study, we identified the most important climate factors affecting radial growth of black pine in western Anatolia and classified its responses to climate. Twenty-eight site chronologies developed by different researchers were used in the analysis. Response functions were calculated for each chronology to identify the effect of climate on radial growth. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to sort response functions and to classify the chronologies into groups based on climate responses. The individual responses of these chronologies to temperature and precipitation were classified in four main groups. Climatic and phytogeographic differences were the major factors influencing the formation of clusters. The results suggest that the major limiting factor is drought caused by low precipitation, especially in May, in almost all sites. The drought effect is much stronger in the transition region to the steppe, Central Anatolia and Mediterranean Regions than the Black Sea Region. Black pine trees respond positively to higher temperature at the beginning of growing season in almost all areas except in transition region to the steppe.     

Effect of simulated fall heat waves on cold hardiness and winter survival of hemlock looper,Lambdina fiscellaria (Lepidoptera: Geometridae)

The hemlock looper (Lambdina fiscellaria) is an important pest of eastern Canadian forests. The ongoing climate warming could modify the seasonal ecology of this univoltine species that lays eggs at the end of summer and overwinters at this stage. Indeed, the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as fall heat waves could interfere with the winter metabolism of the hemlock looper. Moreover, the host plant quality, which influences the quantity of insect energetic reserves, the geographic origin of populations and the conditions prevailing during the cold acclimation period, could cause various responses of this pest to climate warming. The main objective of this study is to determine the impact of these factors on hemlock looper winter biology. In October 2010, hemlock looper eggs initially collected from two geographic areas in the province of Québec, and from parents reared on two host plants, were exposed to fall heat waves of different intensities during 5 consecutive days. Supercooling points and cryoprotectant levels were measured on eggs on four different dates in 2010–2011 and survival rate was measured in April 2011. Our results show that hemlock looper eggs have a very low supercooling point and high levels of trehalose, glucose and mannitol in September and November. However, there is no clear relationship between the concentration of these compounds and the decrease in supercooling points. Contents in trehalose, glucose and mannitol were significantly influenced by fall heat waves and by the origin of the population. Winter survival of eggs from the temperate population was negatively affected by strong heat waves while the boreal population was not affected. This study suggests that the metabolism and winter survival of temperate hemlock looper populations in Québec will be more affected by fall heat waves that will increase in frequency due to climate change, than boreal populations.     

Timing matters: species‐specific interactions between spawning time,substrate quality,and recruitment success in three salmonid species

Substratum quality and oxygen supply to the interstitial zone are crucial for the reproductive success of salmonid fishes. At present, degradation of spawning grounds due to fine sediment deposition and colmation are recognized as main factors for reproductive failure. In addition, changes in water temperatures due to climate change, damming, and cooling water inlets are predicted to reduce hatching success. We tested the hypothesis that the biological effects of habitat degradation depend strongly on the species‐specific spawning seasons and life‐history strategies (e.g., fall‐ vs. spring‐spawners, migratory vs. resident species) and assessed temperature as an important species‐specific factor for hatching success within river substratum. We studied the species‐specific differences in their responses to such disturbances using egg‐to‐fry survival of Danube Salmon (Hucho hucho), resident brown trout (Salmo trutta fario), and migratory brown trout (Salmo trutta lacustris) as biological endpoint. The egg incubation and hatching success of the salmonids and their dependence on temperature and stream substratum quality were compared. Hatching rates of Danube salmon were lower than of brown trout, probably due to higher oxygen demands and increased interstitial respiration in spring. Increases in maximum water temperature reduced hatching rates of resident and migratory brown trout (both fall‐spawners) but were positively correlated with hatching rates of Danube salmon (a spring‐spawner). Significantly longer incubation periods of resident and migratory brown trout coincided with relatively low stream substratum quality at the end of the egg incubation. Danube salmon seem to avoid low oxygen concentrations in the hyporheic zone by faster egg development favored by higher water temperatures. Consequently, the prediction of effects of temperature changes and altered stream substratum properties on gravel‐spawning fishes and biological communities should consider the observed species‐specific variances in life‐history strategies to increase conservation success.     

Complex life cycles and the responses of insects to climate change

Many organisms have complex life cycles with distinct life stages that experience different environmental conditions. How does the complexity of life cycles affect the ecological and evolutionary responses of organisms to climate change? We address this question by exploring several recent case studies and synthetic analyses of insects. First, different life stages may inhabit different microhabitats, and may differ in their thermal sensitivities and other traits that are important for responses to climate. For example, the life stages of Manduca experience different patterns of thermal and hydric variability, and differ in tolerance to high temperatures. Second, life stages may differ in their mechanisms for adaptation to local climatic conditions. For example, in Colias, larvae in different geographic populations and species adapt to local climate via differences in optimal and maximal temperatures for feeding and growth, whereas adults adapt via differences in melanin of the wings and in other morphological traits. Third, we extend a recent analysis of the temperature-dependence of insect population growth to demonstrate how changes in temperature can differently impact juvenile survival and adult reproduction. In both temperate and tropical regions, high rates of adult reproduction in a given environment may not be realized if occasional, high temperatures prevent survival to maturity. This suggests that considering the differing responses of multiple life stages is essential to understand the ecological and evolutionary consequences of climate change.     

Recent invasion of the mountain birch Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa above the treeline due to climate change: genetic and ecological study in northern Sweden

Mountain birch, Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa, forms the treeline in northern Sweden. A recent shift in the range of the species associated with an elevation of the treeline is commonly attributed to climate warming. Using microsatellite markers, we explored the genetic structure of populations along an altitudinal gradient close to the treeline. Low genetic differentiation was found between populations, whereas high genetic diversity was maintained within populations. High level of gene flow compensated for possible losses of genetic diversity at higher elevations and dissipated the founding effect of newly established populations above the treeline. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed low spatial genetic structure within populations because of extensive gene flow. At the treeline, significant genetic structure within the juvenile age class at small distances did not persist in the adult age class, indicating recent expansion of young recruits due to the warming of the climate. Finally, seedling performance above the treeline was positively correlated with parameters related to temperature. These data confirm the high migration potential of the species in response to fluctuating environmental conditions and indicate that it is now invading higher altitudes due to the recent warming of the climate.     

极小种群野生植物密叶红豆杉(Taxus fuana)径向生长对气候的响应

了解树木生长对气候的响应对过去气候重建和预测其对未来气候变化的响应都至关重要。就珍稀濒危树种而言,这还会有助于对其的有效保护。在中国红豆杉属珍稀濒危植物中,密叶红豆杉（Taxus fuana）分布面积最小,野外生存压力大,属于极小种群植物。本研究运用年轮生态学方法,对西藏吉隆地区开热和吉普两地的密叶红豆杉种群进行树轮盘采样,分析了吉隆地区密叶红豆杉径向生长与温度和降水相关气候因子的相关性,旨在揭示影响密叶红豆杉生长的主要气候因子。结果表明,两个种群径向生长对温度的响应不同。开热种群密叶红豆杉径向生长与各月温度多呈显著正相关;吉普种群密叶红豆杉径向生长与各月温度的相关性较弱,且多为负相关,尤以3月份的最显著。两个种群的径向生长对降水的响应也不同。冬季休眠期（12月）的降水对开热种群密叶红豆杉径向生长呈负相关,而生长季初期（5月）和生长季末期（9月）的降水呈正相关。各月的降水对吉普种群密叶红豆杉的径向生长未表现出显著的影响。研究结果可为探讨气候变化下密叶红豆杉的适宜分布区、以及密叶红豆杉的保护和可持续管理提供参考。     

Climate variation is filtered differently among lakes to influence growth of juvenile sockeye salmon in an Alaskan watershed

The physical landscape filters regional climate variation such that the environmental conditions an organism experiences are unique to the characteristics of local habitat features. While it has become apparent that populations may show watershed‐specific responses to changing climate within a geographic region, the population dynamics of Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. suggest that within watershed climate filtering is also important. Growth provides an integrated measure of habitat quality capturing the overall response of individuals to climate as filtered by their habitat and their response to the biological interactions in the ecosystem. We used two different long‐term datasets, scales from returning adults and juvenile length measurements, to assess the response of sockeye salmon O. nerka growth during their juvenile life phase to single and integrated measures of climate within a watershed between 1950 and 2010. Scale growth showed evidence for differences among stocks rearing in different lake habitats within the same Alaska Peninsula watershed. These lakes have substantially different morphometry and showed opposite responses to changes in spring and fall air temperatures. Juvenile length data were also available for one of these stocks and indicated that density effects were relatively weak in contrast to the effects of temperature. While direct measures of juvenile length and measures derived from adult scales showed some similarity in their trends over time, they indicated opposite effects of air temperature. Throughout the range of Pacific salmon, climate change is altering freshwater ecosystems through changes to temperature, precipitation and associated variables. These data suggest that sockeye salmon populations are experiencing climate filtering at a sub‐watershed scale. Maintaining connected, heterogeneous landscapes will therefore likely be important for providing productive habitat for sockeye salmon across a range of climate conditions that they are going to experience under new climate regimes.     

Linking climate change projections for an Alaskan watershed to future coho salmon production

Climate change is predicted to dramatically change hydrologic processes across Alaska, but estimates of how these impacts will influence specific watersheds and aquatic species are lacking. Here, we linked climate, hydrology, and habitat models within a coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) population model to assess how projected climate change could affect survival at each freshwater life stage and, in turn, production of coho salmon smolts in three subwatersheds of the Chuitna (Chuit) River watershed, Alaska. Based on future climate scenarios and projections from a three‐dimensional hydrology model, we simulated coho smolt production over a 20‐year span at the end of the century (2080–2100). The direction (i.e., positive vs. negative) and magnitude of changes in smolt production varied substantially by climate scenario and subwatershed. Projected smolt production decreased in all three subwatersheds under the minimum air temperature and maximum precipitation scenario due to elevated peak flows and a resulting 98% reduction in egg‐to‐fry survival. In contrast, the maximum air temperature and minimum precipitation scenario led to an increase in smolt production in all three subwatersheds through an increase in fry survival. Other climate change scenarios led to mixed responses, with projected smolt production increasing and decreasing in different subwatersheds. Our analysis highlights the complexity inherent in predicting climate‐change‐related impacts to salmon populations and demonstrates that population effects may depend on interactions between the relative magnitude of hydrologic and thermal changes and their interactions with features of the local habitat.     

青海省东部地区喜马拉雅旱獭种群遗传结构

本研究利用11个微卫星标记对采自青海省东部地区的13个喜马拉雅旱獭（Marmota himalayana）种群149个个体进行了基因分型,并运用种群遗传学方法对其遗传多样性和遗传结构进行分析。结果显示,11个微卫星标记位点共计检测到97个等位基因,各种群的平均观测杂合度和期望杂合度范围分别为0.58~0.82和0.60~0.79,种群遗传多样性水平相对较高;遗传结构分析表明,青海省东部地区的喜马拉雅旱獭种群具有显著的遗传结构,13个地理种群形成了3个遗传聚类群,且3个遗传聚类群与湟水河和黄河上游干流所划分出的地理单元完全一致,因此我们认为湟水河和黄河上游干流是阻碍该地区喜马拉雅旱獭种群进行迁移扩散和基因交流的天然屏障。同时,STRUCTURE分析结果还显示3个遗传聚类群间仍有明显的基因流,AMOVA分析也显示3个聚类群间变异百分比为6.60%,仅略高于聚类群内种群间的变异（4.51%）,而远低于种群内变异水平（88.90%）,表明三个聚类群间的分化程度并不是很深。这说明喜马拉雅旱獭可能通过桥梁或在枯水期等穿越河流进行基因交流。以上结果为该地区的旱獭种群监控和鼠疫防控提供了科学的理论基础。     

Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population

Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long‐term mark‐recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12–17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4–6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.