兴安落叶松(Larix gmelinii)火后种子萌发影响因子

林火干扰是影响兴安落叶松林结构和功能的主要因子之一。兴安落叶松种群火后更新受多种因子的影响,并决定着该群落演替轨迹。通过在大兴安岭呼中自然保护区的火烧迹地内设置原位控制实验,利用增强回归树分析方法,量化研究了落叶松火后恢复初期不同影响因子（温度、有机质层厚度、覆盖度等）对种子萌发的相对重要性。研究结果表明：落叶松火后种子萌发的最主要影响因子为温度,第二影响因子为种源,第三影响因子为草本覆盖度,分别解释了幼苗数量变异的28.51%、22.40%、20.66%;各影响因子的相对重要性在不同地形条件下有明显差异：温度在山坡顶部和阳坡底部占有重要影响,种源在阳坡中部和阴坡中部最为重要,土壤含水量在阴坡底部占有重要地位。同时,去除土壤表面有机质可以显著提高种子萌发数量,去除地面杂草则会使种子萌发数量降低。从研究结果可知,落叶松火后种子萌发在不同地形（环境条件）下的限制因子不同,人工辅助需因地制宜采取相应措施,才能更有效地促进种子萌发与森林恢复。     

High and dry: post‐fire tree seedling establishment in subalpine forests decreases with post‐fire drought and large stand‐replacing burn patches

Aim Climate warming and increased wildfire activity are hypothesized to catalyse biogeographical shifts, reducing the resilience of fire‐prone forests world‐wide. Two key mechanisms underpinning hypotheses are: (1) reduced seed availability in large stand‐replacing burn patches, and (2) reduced seedling establishment/survival after post‐fire drought. We tested for regional evidence consistent with these mechanisms in an extensive fire‐prone forest biome by assessing post‐fire tree seedling establishment, a key indicator of forest resilience. Location Subalpine forests, US Rocky Mountains. Methods We analysed post‐fire tree seedling establishment from 184 field plots where stand‐replacing forest fires were followed by varying post‐fire climate conditions. Generalized linear mixed models tested how establishment rates varied with post‐fire drought severity and distance to seed source (among other relevant factors) for tree species with contrasting post‐fire regeneration adaptations. Results Total post‐fire tree seedling establishment (all species combined) declined sharply with greater post‐fire drought severity and with greater distance to seed sources (i.e. the interior of burn patches). Effects varied among key species groups. For conifers that dominate present‐day subalpine forests (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa), post‐fire seedling establishment declined sharply with both factors. One exception was serotinous Pinus contorta, which did not vary with either factor. For montane species expected to move upslope under future climate change (Larix occidentalis, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Populus tremuloides) and upper treeline species (Pinus albicaulis), establishment was unrelated to either factor. Greater post‐fire tree seedling establishment on cooler/wetter aspects suggested local topographic refugia during post‐fire droughts. Main conclusions If future drought and wildfire patterns manifest as expected, post‐fire tree seedling establishment of species that currently characterize subalpine forests could be substantially reduced. Compensatory increases from lower montane and upper treeline species may partially offset these reductions, but our data suggest important near‐ to mid‐term shifts in the composition and structure of high‐elevation forests under continued climate warming and increased wildfire activity.     

Changes in potential habitat of 147 North American breeding bird species in response to redistribution of trees and climate following predicted climate change

Mounting evidence shows that organisms have already begun to respond to global climate change. Advances in our knowledge of how climate shapes species distributional patterns has helped us better understand the response of birds to climate change. However, the distribution of birds across the landscape is also driven by biotic and abiotic components, including habitat characteristics. We therefore developed statistical models of 147 bird species distributions in the eastern United States, using climate, elevation, and the distributions of 39 tree species to predict contemporary bird distributions. We used randomForest, a robust regression‐based decision tree ensemble method to predict contemporary bird distributions. These models were then projected onto three models of climate change under high and low emission scenarios for both climate and the projected change in suitable habitat for the 39 tree species. The resulting bird species models indicated that breeding habitat will decrease by at least 10% for 61–79 species (depending on model and emissions scenario) and increase by at least 10% for 38–52 species in the eastern United States. Alternatively, running the species models using only climate/elevation (omitting tree species), we found that the predictive power of these models was significantly reduced (p<0.001). When these climate/elevation‐only models were projected onto the climate change scenarios, the change in suitable habitat was more extreme in 60% of the species. In the end, the strong associations with vegetation tempers a climate/elevation‐only response to climate change and indicates that refugia of suitable habitat may persist for these bird species in the eastern US, even after the redistribution of tree species. These results suggest the importance of interacting biotic processes and that further fine‐scale research exploring how climate change may disrupt species specific requirements is needed.     

黑龙江省大兴安岭林区火烧迹地森林更新及其影响因子

林火干扰是大兴安岭森林更新的影响因子之一,研究火烧迹地森林更新的影响因子(立地条件、火前植被、火干扰特征)对理解生态系统的结构、功能和火后演替轨迹具有重要意义。选取呼中及新林林业局55个代表性火烧样地,利用增强回归树分析法分析了火烧迹地森林更新的影响因素。结果表明:(1)立地条件是影响针、阔叶树更新苗密度的主要因素;海拔对针叶树更新苗密度的影响最大;坡度对阔叶树更新苗密度影响最大;(2)距上次火烧时间对针叶树更新苗比重影响最大,其次是林型;(3)中度林火干扰后森林更新状况好于轻度和重度火烧迹地。根据火烧迹地森林更新调查分析可知:林型影响火后演替模式,火前为针叶树或阔叶树纯林,火后易发生自我更新(火后树种更新组成与火前林型相同),而针阔混交林在火干扰影响下易于发生序列演替(火后初期以早期演替树种更新为主)。     

Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate–wildfire interactions

Climate influences forests directly and indirectly through disturbance. The interaction of climate change and increasing area burned has the potential to alter forest composition and community assembly. However, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species‐specific responses to environmental change and the scale of change in overstory species cover. In this study, we sought to quantify how projected changes in climate and large wildfire size would alter forest communities and carbon (C) dynamics, irrespective of competition from nontree species and potential changes in other fire regimes, across the Sierra Nevada, USA. We used a species‐specific, spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS‐II) to evaluate forest response to climate–wildfire interactions under historical (baseline) climate and climate projections from three climate models (GFDL, CCSM3, and CNRM) forced by a medium–high emission scenario (A2) in combination with corresponding climate‐specific large wildfire projections. By late century, we found modest changes in the spatial distribution of dominant species by biomass relative to baseline, but extensive changes in recruitment distribution. Although forest recruitment declined across much of the Sierra, we found that projected climate and wildfire favored the recruitment of more drought‐tolerant species over less drought‐tolerant species relative to baseline, and this change was greatest at mid‐elevations. We also found that projected climate and wildfire decreased tree species richness across a large proportion of the study area and transitioned more area to a C source, which reduced landscape‐level C sequestration potential. Our study, although a conservative estimate, suggests that by late century, forest community distributions may not change as intact units as predicted by biome‐based modeling, but are likely to trend toward simplified community composition as communities gradually disaggregate and the least tolerant species are no longer able to establish. The potential exists for substantial community composition change and forest simplification beyond this century.     

高山林线生态交错区木本植物幼苗分布特征、更新机制及其对气候变化的响应

木本植物幼苗是高山林线生态交错区的重要组成部分,其更新对气候变化背景下树线的移动至关重要.本研究通过对近几十年来全球范围内林线生态交错区的木本植物幼苗分布特征、更新机制及其对气候变化响应的研究总结得出:林线生态交错区木本植物幼苗的空间分布类型主要为渐变型和聚集型,且不同分布类型对树线动态的指示意义各异.在全球尺度上,其分布的海拔高限通常与生长季长度、均温和物种特性等有关,而在区域尺度上则多受降水影响.在幼苗更新初期,种源在很大程度上决定了种子的萌发及分布位置,之后微环境的促进作用为幼苗的定植提供庇护,提高其存活率,而在更新后期多种生物和非生物因素及其相互作用则非常关键.气候变暖促使林线生态交错区气温升高、降水充沛,有利于幼苗生长,使其向高海拔区域扩张而成为树线上移的先兆,但部分物种受遗传特性或适应策略影响,仅表现为密度增加,使树线保持相对稳定.未来应借助树轮、14C等精确定年技术,通过长期的野外定位观测和室内模拟,加强多时空尺度下林线幼苗的空间分布特征和更新机制研究,分析不同类型林线内木本植物幼苗的适应策略,预测气候变化背景下的树线动态,为山地生态系统恢复及保护提供科学依据.     

Interactions Among Fuel Management,Species Composition,Bark Beetles,and Climate Change and the Potential Effects on Forests of the Lake Tahoe Basin

Climate-driven increases in wildfires, drought conditions, and insect outbreaks are critical threats to forest carbon stores. In particular, bark beetles are important disturbance agents although their long-term interactions with future climate change are poorly understood. Droughts and the associated moisture deficit contribute to the onset of bark beetle outbreaks although outbreak extent and severity is dependent upon the density of host trees, wildfire, and forest management. Our objective was to estimate the effects of climate change and bark beetle outbreaks on ecosystem carbon dynamics over the next century in a western US forest. Specifically, we hypothesized that (a) bark beetle outbreaks under climate change would reduce net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) and increase uncertainty and (b) these effects could be ameliorated by fuels management. We also examined the specific tree species dynamics—competition and release—that determined NECB response to bark beetle outbreaks. Our study area was the Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB), CA and NV, USA, an area of diverse forest types encompassing steep elevation and climatic gradients and representative of mixed-conifer forests throughout the western United States. We simulated climate change, bark beetles, wildfire, and fuels management using a landscape-scale stochastic model of disturbance and succession. We simulated the period 2010–2100 using downscaled climate projections. Recurring droughts generated conditions conducive to large-scale outbreaks; the resulting large and sustained outbreaks significantly increased the probability of LTB forests becoming C sources over decadal time scales, with slower-than-anticipated landscape-scale recovery. Tree species composition was substantially altered with a reduction in functional redundancy and productivity. Results indicate heightened uncertainty due to the synergistic influences of climate change and interacting disturbances. Our results further indicate that current fuel management practices will not be effective at reducing landscape-scale outbreak mortality. Our results provide critical insights into the interaction of drivers (bark beetles, wildfire, fuel management) that increase the risk of C loss and shifting community composition if bark beetle outbreaks become more frequent.     

Defining species guilds in the Central Hardwood Forest,USA

Tree regeneration outcomes are challenging to generalize and difficult to predict. Many tree species can establish new propagules in a variety of post-disturbance environments and many different reproductive mechanisms may be used. In order to develop conceptual models that accurately reflect reproductive potential, we need a better understanding of the similarities in regeneration ecology among species. We used information from the forest ecology literature to evaluate the reproductive attributes of sixty-two tree species in the central hardwood region of the eastern United States. Each species was classified categorically for features such as flowering, seed production and dispersal, seed dormancy, germination requirements, seedling characteristics, and vegetative reproduction. Cluster analysis (Jaccard's similarity coefficient, complete linkage method) and ordination (homogeneity analysis) were used to separate nine groups (guilds) of species that had similar reproductive attributes. Individual attributes that had high variance in the first and second dimensions included: seed banking, seed dispersal, seedling shade tolerance, and seedbed requirements. Members of each guild had similar levels of reproductive specialization and guilds were either pioneer-like, opportunistic, or persistent. Pioneer guilds included: short-lived or fugitive species that colonize sites rapidly and are too shade intolerant to replace themselves; shade-tolerant species that colonize frequently disturbed sites; and stress-tolerant pioneers that survive on dry or nutrient-poor sites. Opportunistic guilds contained species that are remarkably versatile in their reproductive effort. The most flexible opportunists can colonize new sites, maintain seed in a seed bank, sprout from existing stems and persist as a seedling or sapling bank. Persistent guilds contain species that develop and maintain advance regeneration. These include: species with moderate understory tolerance that regenerate via cycles of dieback and resprouting; and more tolerant species that maintain seedling or sapling banks. Our regeneration guilds may provide a useful approach for more realistically representing large and diverse sets of tree species in forest ecosystem models.     

Response of maritime pine (Pinus?pinaster Ait.) recruitment to fire severity and post-fire management in a coastal burned area in Galicia (NW Spain)

The short-term effects of fire severity and post-fire management on maritime pine recruitment were evaluated in a mature serotinous pine stand in a coastal area of Galicia (NW Spain) burned by a wildfire occurred in the summer of 2001. Two levels of fire severity estimated by the levels of tree crown damage—scorched and unaffected crown—were compared. Seed dispersal and first cohort pine (November 2001) seedling density, before salvage logging, were significantly and positively affected by fire severity. Between November and January, a fungal attack caused a noticeable decrease in seedling density in both levels of fire severity. The first cohort survival was significantly reduced by harvesting and slash treatments carried out in February 2002. However, slash chopping favoured a new pine cohort, particularly in the unaffected crown plots, in which seedling density was significantly higher than in the scorched crown plots between July 2002 and February 2003. First cohort seedling survival and height were positively related. Fire severity levels, combined with post fire management, did not appear to determine final pine seedling density and height. Finally, reduction in seedling density caused by post-fire management did not threaten pine establishment and may reduce the need for subsequent thinning operations.     

Native and exotic plant cover vary inversely along a climate gradient 11 years following stand‐replacing wildfire in a dry coniferous forest,Oregon, USA

Community re‐assembly following future disturbances will often occur under warmer and more moisture‐limited conditions than when current communities assembled. Because the establishment stage is regularly the most sensitive to climate and competition, the trajectory of recovery from disturbance in a changing environment is uncertain, but has important consequences for future ecosystem functioning. To better understand how ongoing warming and rising moisture limitation may affect recovery, we studied native and exotic plant composition 11 years following complete stand‐replacing wildfire in a dry coniferous forest spanning a large gradient in climatic moisture deficit (CMD) from warm and dry low elevation sites to relatively cool and moist higher elevations sites. We then projected future precipitation, temperature and CMD at our study locations for four scenarios selected to encompass a broad range of possible future conditions for the region. Native perennials dominated relatively cool and moist sites 11 years after wildfire, but were very sparse at the warmest and driest (high CMD) sites, particularly when combined with high topographic sun exposure. In contrast, exotic species (primarily annual grasses) were dominant or co‐dominant at the warmest and driest sites, especially with high topographic sun exposure. All future scenarios projected increasing temperature and CMD in coming decades (e.g., from 4.5% to 29.5% higher CMD by the 2080's compared to the 1971–2000 average), even in scenarios where growing season (May‐September) precipitation increased. These results suggest increasing temperatures and moisture limitation could facilitate longer term (over a decade) transitions toward exotic‐dominated communities after severe wildfire when a suitable exotic seed source is present.     

Spatially explicit fire-climate history of the boreal forest-tundra (Eastern Canada) over the last 2000 years

Across the boreal forest, fire is the main disturbance factor and driver of ecosystem changes. In this study, we reconstructed a long-term, spatially explicit fire history of a forest-tundra region in northeastern Canada. We hypothesized that current occupation of similar topographic and edaphic sites by tundra and forest was the consequence of cumulative regression with time of forest cover due to compounding fire and climate disturbances. All fires were mapped and dated per 100 year intervals over the last 2,000 years using several fire dating techniques. Past fire occurrences and post-fire regeneration at the northern forest limit indicate 70% reduction of forest cover since 1800 yr BP and nearly complete cessation of forest regeneration since 900 yr BP. Regression of forest cover was particularly important between 1500s-1700s and possibly since 900 yr BP. Although fire frequency was very low over the last 100 years, each fire event was followed by drastic removal of spruce cover. Contrary to widespread belief of northward boreal forest expansion due to recent warming, lack of post-fire recovery during the last centuries, in comparison with active tree regeneration more than 1,000 years ago, indicates that the current climate does not favour such expansion.     

Resistance to wildfire and early regeneration in natural broadleaved forest and pine plantation

The response of an ecosystem to disturbance reflects its stability, which is determined by two components: resistance and resilience. We addressed both components in a study of early post-fire response of natural broadleaved forest (Quercus robur, Ilex aquifolium) and pine plantation (Pinus pinaster, Pinus sylvestris) to a wildfire that burned over 6000 ha in NW Portugal. Fire resistance was assessed from fire severity, tree mortality and sapling persistence. Understory fire resistance was similar between forests: fire severity at the surface level was moderate to low, and sapling persistence was low. At the canopy level, fire severity was generally low in broadleaved forest but heterogeneous in pine forest, and mean tree mortality was significantly higher in pine forest. Forest resilience was assessed by the comparison of the understory composition, species diversity and seedling abundance in unburned and burned plots in each forest type. Unburned broadleaved communities were dominated by perennial herbs (e.g., Arrhenatherum elatius) and woody species (e.g., Hedera hibernica, Erica arborea), all able to regenerate vegetatively. Unburned pine communities presented a higher abundance of shrubs, and most dominant species relied on post-fire seeding, with some species also being able to regenerate vegetatively (e.g., Ulex minor, Daboecia cantabrica). There were no differences in diversity measures in broadleaved forest, but burned communities in pine forest shared less species and were less rich and diverse than unburned communities. Seedling abundance was similar in burned and unburned plots in both forests. The slower reestablishment of understory pine communities is probably explained by the slower recovery rate of dominant species. These findings are ecologically relevant: the higher resistance and resilience of native broadleaved forest implies a higher stability in the maintenance of forest processes and the delivery of ecosystem services.     

Impacts of annual weather conditions on forest productivity

The response of four northern deciduous tree species to annual climate variation is quantified at two intensively measured sites in northern Michigan, USA. Response to changes in temperature and moisture differ with the species and is dependent on other site conditions. Relationships identified in these field studies indicate that projected climate changes may have dramatic effects on the productivity of at least some commercially important tree species in the northern United States.     

基于3PGS-MTCLIM模型模拟根河林区火后植被净初级生产力恢复及其影响因子

林火是大兴安岭林区主要的干扰因子,且对森林生态系统的碳平衡有着重要影响.火干扰强度以及不同地形条件所导致的山地气候差异是影响火后植被净初级生产力恢复过程的主导因素.本研究以内蒙古根河林区为例,使用多时相的Landsat TM遥感数据(2008—2012年)和1980—2010年间的气象资料,结合山地小气候模型MTCLIM与光能利用效率模型3PGS,模拟森林火后植被净初级生产力(NPP)的时空恢复过程,并探讨不同火烧强度和地形因子对NPP恢复进程的影响.结果表明: 3PGS-MTCLIM模型能够较准确地在小尺度范围内模拟NPP的空间分布格局,模拟结果与样地具有较好的对应关系,R²=0.828;3PGS-MTCLIM模型模拟火后NPP下降百分比在43%~80%,相对于火前NPP水平该区域的平均恢复周期大约为10年;火烧强度对火后恢复具有显著影响,火烧强度越强,NPP恢复所需要的周期越长,火后NPP恢复速度呈现先快后慢的增长趋势;地形因子中,海拔对火后NPP恢复程度的影响最明显,其次为坡度,而坡向的影响最小.     

Tree species growth response to climate warming varies by forest canopy position in boreal and temperate forests

Reports of forest sensitivity to climate change are based largely on the study of overstory trees, which contribute significantly to forest growth and wood supply. However, juveniles in the understory are also critical to predict future forest dynamics and demographics, but their sensitivity to climate remains less known. In this study, we applied boosted regression tree analysis to compare the sensitivity of understory and overstory trees for the 10 most common tree species in eastern North America using growth information from an unprecedented network of nearly 1.5 million tree records from 20,174 widely distributed, permanent sample plots across Canada and the United States. Fitted models were then used to project the near-term (2041–2070) growth for each canopy and tree species. We observed an overall positive effect of warming on tree growth for both canopies and most species, leading to an average of 7.8%–12.2% projected growth gains with climate change under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The magnitude of these gains peaked in colder, northern areas for both canopies, while growth declines are projected for overstory trees in warmer, southern regions. Relative to overstory trees, understory tree growth was less positively affected by warming in northern regions, while displaying more positive responses in southern areas, likely driven by the buffering effect of the canopy from warming and climate extremes. Observed differences in climatic sensitivity between canopy positions underscore the importance of accounting for differential growth responses to climate between forest strata in future studies to improve ecological forecasts. Furthermore, latitudinal variation in the differential sensitivity of forest strata to climate reported here may help refine our comprehension of species range shift and changes in suitable habitat under climate change.     

Predicting Ecosystem Resilience to Fire from Tree Ring Analysis in Black Spruce Forests

Climate change has increased the occurrence, severity, and impact of disturbances on forested ecosystems worldwide, resulting in a need to identify factors that contribute to an ecosystem’s resilience or capacity to recover from disturbance. Forest resilience to disturbance may decline with climate change if mature trees are able to persist under stressful environmental conditions that do not permit successful recruitment and survival after a disturbance. In this study, we used the change in proportional representation of black spruce pre- to post-fire as a surrogate for resilience. We explored links between patterns of resilience and tree ring signals of drought stress across topographic moisture gradients within the boreal forest. We sampled 72 recently (2004) burned stands of black spruce in interior Alaska (USA); the relative dominance of black spruce after fire ranged from almost no change (high resilience) to a 90% decrease (low resilience). Variance partitioning analysis indicated that resilience was related to site environmental characteristics and climate–growth responses, with no unique contribution of pre-fire stand composition. The largest shifts in post-fire species composition occurred in sites that experienced the compounding effects of pre-fire drought stress and shallow post-fire organic layer thickness. These sites were generally located at warmer and drier landscape positions, suggesting they are less resilient to disturbance than sites in cool and moist locations. Climate–growth responses can provide an estimate of stand environmental stress to climate change and as such are a valuable tool for predicting landscape variations in forest ecosystem resilience.     

寒温带湿地火后植被恢复的影响因子

寒温带湿地在维护区域生态平衡方面发挥着重要作用.火是湿地的重要干扰因子.重度火烧会导致湿地生态功能明显退化.火后植被恢复,特别是火后早期植被的恢复是生态系统功能恢复的前提和基础.本文对火后湿地植被恢复影响因子的国内外研究进展进行了综述.寒温带湿地火后植被恢复受到火强度、火面积、火前植被类型、物种更新特性、立地条件等多因子的制约.寒温带湿地火后恢复的长期监测、植被恢复的关键影响因子、冻土层在植被恢复过程中的作用、植被恢复的理论与技术将是今后研究的重要方向.     

Upper range limit establishment after wildfire of an obligate-seeding montane forest tree fails to keep pace with 20th century warming

Aims How species respond to climate change at local scales will depend on how edaphic and biological characteristics interact with species physiological limits and traits such as dispersal. Obligate seeders, those species that depend on fire for recruitment, have few and episodic opportunities to track a changing climate envelope. In such cases, long-distance seed dispersal will be necessary to take advantage of rare recruitment opportunities. We examine recruitment patterns and seedling growth below, at and above the timberline of an obligate-seeding Australian montane forest tree (Eucalyptus delegatensis) after stand-replacing fire, and place these changes in the context of regional warming.Methods We use two methods to detect whether E. delegatensis can establish and persist above the timberline after stand-replacing wildfire in montane forests in south-east Australia. First, we examine establishment patterns by using belt transects at six sites to quantify how changes in post-fire recruit density with increasing distance above the timberline seven years post-fire. Second, to determine whether dispersal or physiological constraints determine post-fire establishment patterns, we transplanted seedlings and saplings into bare ground above (100 m elevation), at, and below (50 m elevation) timberline 18-months after fire. We monitored seedling growth and survival for one growing season.Important findings There was minimal upslope migration of the species after fire with most saplings observed near seed-bearing timberline trees, with only occasional outpost saplings. Transplanted seedlings and saplings survived equally well across one growing season when planted above existing timberlines, relative to saplings at or below the timberline. Seedling and sapling growth rates also did not differ across these location, although seedlings grew at much faster rates than saplings. These findings suggest that upslope growing season conditions are unlikely to limit initial range expansion of trees after fire. Instead, it is more likely that seed traits governing dispersal modulate responses to environmental gradients, and global change more generally.     

Ecohydrology of Adjacent Sagebrush and Lodgepole Pine Ecosystems: The Consequences of Climate Change and Disturbance

Sagebrush steppe and lodgepole pine forests are two of the most widespread vegetation types in the western United States and they play crucial roles in the hydrologic cycle of these water-limited regions. We used a process-based ecosystem water model to characterize the potential impact of climate change and disturbance (wildfire and beetle mortality) on water cycling in adjacent sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems. Despite similar climatic and topographic conditions between these ecosystems at the sites examined, lodgepole pine, and sagebrush exhibited consistent differences in water balance, notably more evaporation and drier summer soils in the sagebrush and greater transpiration and less water yield in lodgepole pine. Canopy disturbances (either fire or beetle) have dramatic impacts on water balance and availability: reducing transpiration while increasing evaporation and water yield. Results suggest that climate change may reduce snowpack, increase evaporation and transpiration, and lengthen the duration of dry soil conditions in the summer, but may have uncertain effects on drainage. Changes in the distribution of sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems as a consequence of climate change and/or altered disturbance regimes will likely alter ecosystem water balance.     

Co‐occurrence patterns of trees along macro‐climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large‐scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress‐gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad‐scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co‐occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates. Location Europe. Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co‐occurrence patterns. Results Correlation analyses supported the stress‐gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co‐occurrence patterns may play a major role. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co‐occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate‐induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences.