The 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper virus epidemics in European harbour seals

We present new and revised data for the phocine distemper virus (PDV) epidemics that resulted in the deaths of more than 23 000 harbour seals Phoca vitulina in 1988 and 30,000 in 2002. On both occasions the epidemics started at the Danish island of Anholt in central Kattegat, and subsequently spread to adjacent colonies in a stepwise fashion. However, this pattern was not maintained throughout the epidemics and new centres of infection appeared far from infected populations on some occasions: in 1988 early positive cases were observed in the Irish Sea, and in 2002 the epidemic appeared in the Dutch Wadden Sea, 6 wk after the initiation of the outbreak at Anholt Island. Since the harbour seal is a rather sedentary species, such 'jumps' in the spread among colonies suggest that another vector species could have been involved. We discussed the role of sympatric species as disease vectors, and suggested that grey seal populations could act as reservoirs for PDV if infection rates in sympatric species are lower than in harbour seals. Alternatively, grey seals could act as subclinical infected carriers of the virus between Arctic and North Sea seal populations. Mixed colonies of grey and harbour seal colonies are found at all locations where the jumps occurred. It seems likely that grey seals, which show long-distance movements, contributed to the spread among regions. The harbour seal populations along the Norwegian coast and in the Baltic escaped both epidemics, which could be due either to genetic differences among harbour seal populations or to immunity. Catastrophic events such as repeated epidemics should be accounted for in future models and management strategies of wildlife populations.     

Maximum likelihood population size estimation of harbour seals in the Dutch Wadden Sea based on a mark–recapture experiment

1. The harbour seal population Phoca vitulina in the entire Wadden Sea was severely depleted due to a virus-epizootic during 1988. A comprehensive study on the population biology and activity patterns was subsequently initiated to design a management and conservation plan. The main objective of this study was to estimate harbour seal abundance in the different regions of the Wadden Sea.
2. We investigated the potential of a mark–recapture experiment using VHF radio-tags in combination with repeated aerial surveys to estimate the number of harbour seals in the Dutch part of the Wadden Sea. The number of harbour seals hauled-out and the presence of any radio-tagged seals was monitored during seven aerial surveys of all known haul-out sites in the Dutch Wadden Sea over the 1994 breeding season.
3. A maximum likelihood (ML) estimator was developed to infer the rate of tag-loss and the size of the local prepupping population.
4. The ML estimate of the number of harbour seals in the Dutch Wadden Sea was 1536 (95% confidence limits were 1225 and 2200). The corresponding maximum proportion of seals hauled-out was 68%.
5. The use of VHF radio-tags which can be monitored from the air provides a way of correcting aerial survey counts for the proportion of harbour seals hauled-out during the surveys. Since haul-out behaviour may be influenced by local conditions, such as exposure time of sand banks, we recommend this technique be repeated in other areas of the Wadden Sea rather than using the estimates from the current study in other areas.     

Acute phase protein haptoglobin in blood plasma samples of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) of the Wadden Sea and of the isle Helgoland

Haptoglobin (Hp) which is synthesized in response to infection, inflammation, trauma or toxicological damage is known as a major acute phase protein in numerous species. Quantification of the circulating concentration of this protein can provide an objective measure of the health status, but there is a lack of investigations on harbour seals. We investigated the Hp concentration in samples of 123 seals (Phoca vitulina) from the German and Danish Wadden Sea to study physiological ranges of Hp levels. Hp levels between 2002, the end of the phocine distemper virus epidemic (PDV), and 2007 were considered, and Hp concentrations between animals of different sex, ages as well as living areas were compared. Furthermore, as a case study, six animals from the open sea isle Helgoland were investigated in 2006. Influences on the health status of the seal population e.g. the PDV epidemic were reflected by increased Hp levels in North Sea seals in 2002. The results of the Wadden Sea seals showed no significant age-, sex-, or geographical area-related differences. Interestingly, for the seals of the open sea isle Helgoland higher Hp values were measured compared to the Wadden Sea seals. The present study demonstrates that Hp can be used as a diagnostic tool to monitor the health status of harbour seals.     

The 2002 European seal plague: epidemiology and population consequences

We present the first epidemiological data on the 2002 outbreak of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in European harbour seals (Phoca vitulina). The epizootic curve to date supports a mortality rate and probability of infection identical to that of the 1988 outbreak, which killed 58% of the population. Thus immunity is playing no significant role in the dynamics of the current outbreak. Because the timing of the outbreak is important in determining local mortality rates, we predict higher mortality rates on the European continent than in Great Britain or Ireland. A stochastic model is used to quantify how recurrent epizootics affect the long‐term growth, fluctuation, and persistence of the population. Recurrent PDV epizootics with the observed frequency and severity would reduce the long‐term stochastic growth rate of the harbour seal population by half, and significantly increase the risk of quasi‐extinction.     

An assessment of population size and distribution of harbour seals in the Republic of Ireland during the moult season in August 2003

The status of Ireland's harbour seal Phoca vitulina vitulina population is poorly understood. The most recent national population estimate dates back to the breeding season in 1978 and did not cover the entire coastline. Reliable up-to-date information on the abundance and distribution of harbour seals in Ireland is necessary to assess the conservation status of the species and for the effective identification, management and monitoring of special areas of conservation required for harbour seals under the EU Habitats Directive. To provide comprehensive current information on Ireland's harbour seal population, a geographically extensive survey was conducted along the coastline of the Republic of Ireland during the species' annual moult in August 2003. This complemented a similar survey of Northern Ireland, which was conducted in 2002. Using thermal imaging technology, haul-out groups of harbour seals and grey seals Halichoerus grypus were identified from the air, aerial-counts were obtained and compared with simultaneous ground-count data from selected sites. Harbour seal distribution recorded during the 2003 moult season was concentrated in the south-west, west and north-west of the country. This national survey yielded a minimum population estimate for the Republic of Ireland of 2905 harbour seals, delivering an effective baseline for current and future population research.     

Illustration of some limits of the Markov assumption for transition between groups in models of spread of an infectious pathogen in a structured herd

In epidemic models concerning a structured population, sojourn times in a group are usually described by an exponential distribution. For livestock populations, realistic distributions may be preferred for group changes (e.g. depending on sojourn time). We illustrated the effect on pathogen spread of the use of an exponential distribution, instead of the true distribution of the transition time, between groups for a population separated into two groups (youngstock, adults) when this true distribution is a triangular one. Concerning the epidemic process, two assumptions were defined: one type of excreting animal (SIR model), and two types of excreting animals (transiently or persistently infected animals). The study was conducted with two indirect-transmission levels between groups. Among the adults, the epidemic size and the last infection time were significantly different. For persistence, epidemic sizes (in the entire population and in youngstock) and first infection time, results varied according to models (excretion assumption, indirect-transmission level).     

Integrating genetic data and population viability analyses for the identification of harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) populations and management units

Identification of populations and management units is an essential step in the study of natural systems. Still, there is limited consensus regarding how to define populations and management units, and whether genetic methods allow for inference at the relevant spatial and temporal scale. Here, we present a novel approach, integrating genetic, life history and demographic data to identify populations and management units in southern Scandinavian harbour seals. First, 15 microsatellite markers and model‐ and distance‐based genetic clustering methods were used to determine the population genetic structure in harbour seals. Second, we used harbour seal demographic and life history data to conduct population viability analyses (PVAs) in the vortex simulation model in order to determine whether the inferred genetic units could be classified as management units according to Lowe and Allendorf's (Molecular Ecology, 19, 2010, 3038) ‘population viability criterion’ for demographic independence. The genetic analyses revealed fine‐scale population structuring in southern Scandinavian harbour seals and pointed to the existence of several genetic units. The PVAs indicated that the census population size of each of these genetic units was sufficiently large for long‐term population viability, and hence that the units could be classified as demographically independent management units. Our study suggests that population genetic inference can offer the same degree of temporal and spatial resolution as ‘nongenetic’ methods and that the combined use of genetic data and PVAs constitutes a promising approach for delineating populations and management units.     

Using sparse survey data to investigate the declining abundance of British harbour seals

This study presents an analysis of changes in the regional abundance of harbour seals Phoca vitulina based on repeated aerial surveys of haulouts, and demonstrates the use of sparse data to deliver advice about population status and management. Generalized linear models with negative binomial errors were used to represent these overdispersed data. The shape parameter of the negative binomial distribution was directly estimated from the data where this was possible. Information from time-series of counts where there were few gaps in the data was used to improve the estimation of this parameter in areas where fewer surveys had been carried out. The results show that the number of harbour seals in eastern England has not increased since the end of the 2002 phocine distemper epidemic. There is also evidence of a general decline in most of the large harbour seal colonies around Britain. The populations in the Inner Hebrides were an exception, with numbers appearing to be stable or increasing. Between 2001 and 2006, the population in Orkney and Shetland declined by 40% (95% confidence interval: 30–50%), indicating harbour seals in these areas experienced substantially increased mortality or very low recruitment over this period. The widespread declines, ranging from Shetland to The Wash, suggest that the causes may have been present over a large part of the North Sea.     

Metapopulation moments: coupling, stochasticity and persistence

1.  Spatial heterogeneity has long been viewed as a reliable means of increasing persistence. Here, an analytical model is developed to consider the variation and, hence, the persistence of stochastic metapopulations. This model relies on a novel moment closure technique, which is equivalent to assuming log-normal distributions for the population sizes.
2.  Single-species models show the greatest persistence when the mixing between subpopulations is large, so spatial heterogeneity is of no benefit. This result is confirmed by stochastic simulation of the full metapopulation.
3.  In contrast, natural-enemy models exhibit the greatest persistence for intermediate levels of coupling. When the coupling is too low, there are insufficient rescue effects between the subpopulations to sustain the dynamics, whereas when the coupling is too high all spatial heterogeneity is lost.
4.  The difference in behaviour between the one- and two-species models can be attributed to the oscillatory nature of the natural-enemy system.     

Epidemic enhancement in partially immune populations

We observe that a pathogen introduced into a population containing individuals with acquired immunity can result in an epidemic longer in duration and/or larger in size than if the pathogen were introduced into a naive population. We call this phenomenon "epidemic enhancement," and use simple dynamical models to show that it is a realistic scenario within the parameter ranges of many common infectious diseases. This finding implies that repeated pathogen introduction or intermediate levels of vaccine coverage can lead to pathogen persistence in populations where extinction would otherwise be expected.     

Cities and villages: infection hierarchies in a measles metapopulation

An important issue in the dynamics of directly transmitted microparasites is the relationship between infection probability and host density. We use models and extensive spatio-temporal data for the incidence of measles to examine evidence for spatial heterogeneity in transmission probability, in terms of urban–rural hierarchies in infection rate. Pre-vaccination measles data for England and Wales show strong evidence for urban–rural heterogeneities in infection rate – the proportion of urban cases rises significantly before major epidemics. The model shows that this effect is consistent with a higher infection rate in large cities, though small towns have epidemic characteristics intermediate between town and country. Surprisingly, urban and rural areas of the same population size have a similar propensity for local extinction of infection. A spatial map of urban–rural correlations reveals complex regional patterns of synchronization of towns and cities. The hierarchical heterogeneities in infection persist into the vaccine era; their implications for disease persistence and control are discussed.     

Reinfection induced disease in a spatial SIRI model

Spatial models are widely used in epidemiology to investigate persistence and extinction of disease as well as their spatial patterns. One of the most important issues in studying epidemic models is the role of infection on the persistence and extinction of the disease. In this paper, we investigate a spatial susceptible–infected–recovered–infected model using cellular automata. We show that, in the regime where disease disappears in the susceptible–infected–recovered–susceptible model, spiral and target waves will emerge in the two-dimensional space due to the reinfection. The obtained results may point out that reinfection has great influence on the epidemic spreading, which enriches the findings of spatiotemporal dynamics in epidemic models.     

A two-phase epidemic driven by diffusion

In this paper, I present and analyse a model for the spatial dynamics of an epidemic following the point release of an infectious agent. Under conditions where the infectious agent disperses rapidly, relative to the dispersal rate of individuals, the resulting epidemic exhibits two distinct phases: a primary phase in which an epidemic wavefront propagates at constant speed and a secondary phase with a decelerating wavefront. The behavior of the primary phase is similar to standard results for diffusive epidemic models. The secondary phase may be attributed to the environmental persistence of the infectious agent near the release point. Analytic formulas are given for the invasion speeds and asymptotic infection levels. Qualitatively similar results appear to hold in an extended version of the model that incorporates virus shedding and dispersal of individuals.     

Spatial variation in foraging behaviour of a marine top predator (Phoca vitulina) determined by a large-scale satellite tagging program

The harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) is a widespread marine predator in Northern Hemisphere waters. British populations have been subject to rapid declines in recent years. Food supply or inter-specific competition may be implicated but basic ecological data are lacking and there are few studies of harbour seal foraging distribution and habits. In this study, satellite tagging conducted at the major seal haul outs around the British Isles showed both that seal movements were highly variable among individuals and that foraging strategy appears to be specialized within particular regions. We investigated whether these apparent differences could be explained by individual level factors: by modelling measures of trip duration and distance travelled as a function of size, sex and body condition. However, these were not found to be good predictors of foraging trip duration or distance, which instead was best predicted by tagging region, time of year and inter-trip duration. Therefore, we propose that local habitat conditions and the constraints they impose are the major determinants of foraging movements. Specifically the distance to profitable feeding grounds from suitable haul-out locations may dictate foraging strategy and behaviour. Accounting for proximity to productive foraging resources is likely to be an important component of understanding population processes. Despite more extensive offshore movements than expected, there was also marked fidelity to the local haul-out region with limited connectivity between study regions. These empirical observations of regional exchange at short time scales demonstrates the value of large scale electronic tagging programs for robust characterization of at-sea foraging behaviour at a wide spatial scale.     

Changes in haematological parameters in relation to prey switching in a wild population of harbour seals

1. Previous studies have found marked inter-annual variation in winter food availability, diet composition and body condition in a population of harbour seals ( Phoca vitulina L.) in Northeast Scotland. This study aimed to determine whether there were other physiological consequences of prey switching by comparing haematological parameters in years when the clupeids herring and sprat dominated the diet and in years when seals switched to alternative prey.
2. There were significant differences in leukocyte and erythrocyte parameters in relation to diet composition. In contrast, indices of body condition did not explain the variation in haematological parameters, suggesting that the observed changes did not result from differences in the energetic content of the prey.
3. Leukocyte counts were significantly higher after 'good' clupeid years, although the differences in mean counts were small. Such differences could have resulted either from immuno-suppression, for example because of differences in prey nutrient or contaminant levels, or from differences in the pathogen challenge resulting from geographical variations in water quality.
4. The differences in erythrocyte parameters were more marked, and there was evidence of widespread macrocytic anaemia when seals switched from clupeids to alternative prey. Such differences could result either from acclimation, as a result of prey-specific foraging strategies, or from differences in the nutritional quality of prey.
5. These results indicate that generalist predators such as the harbour seal may exhibit physiological responses to changes in the composition of their diet. These data highlight the need to consider the long-term physiological effects of variations in food availability on the population dynamics of generalist marine top predators. In particular, it is hypothesized that fish-induced anaemia may be responsible for declines in certain pinniped populations.     

Apparent decline in the harbour seal Phoca vitulina population near Hvaler, Norway, following an epizootic

From 1986-90 we tagged 98 harbour seal pups at Hvaler, Norway Fifteen were recovered later the same year of which 10 were recovered in 1988, when the seal population was infected by a morbillivirus The epizootic in 1988 resulted in a population decline of c 75% Predicted birth weight did not vary significantly before and after the epizootic Newborn harbour seals have antibodies against the morbillivirus two years after the outbreak of the disease     

Evaluating the function of the male harbour seal, Phoca vitulina, roar through playback experiments

The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of vocalizations produced during the breeding season by the male harbour seal, an aquatically breeding pinniped. During the spring of 1999, playback experiments were conducted at eight locations in Elkhorn Slough, California, U.S.A. Through an underwater speaker, we presented male harbour seals with three acoustic stimuli: a long-duration, low-frequency roar (LL), a short-duration, high-frequency roar (SH) and amplified water noise (control). Male responses to the playback boat were characterized by increased approach rates and aggressive flipper slapping during 62.5% of SH sessions (N=8), 25% of LL sessions (N=8) and 0% of control sessions (N=8). No more than one identifiable seal responded during each playback location. We observed no responses by female harbour seals to playbacks. We conclude from these experiments that territorial male harbour seals use roars given by intruders to locate and challenge intruders.     

Effects of phosphorus limitation on the epidemiology of a chytrid phytoplankton parasite

SUMMARY 1. The effect of phosphorus limitation of the diatom Asterionella formosa Hass. on growth, survival and epidemic development of its fungal parasite Rhizophydium planktonicum Canter emend. was estimated, using measurements of production and infectivity of the zoospores of the chytrid grown on host cultures with different phosphorus-limited growth rates.
2. Phosphorus-limited host cells were less susceptible to infection with zoospores of the parasite than non-limited host cells.
3. The sporangia on phosphorus-limited algae produced substantially less zoospores, but the development time of these sporangia was only slightly reduced.
4. As a result of these effects, Rhizophydium will reach lower growth rates at a given host density, and survival of the parasite will require higher host densities when Asterionella is phosphorus-limited.
5. The zoospore production remained high enough to enable the parasite to grow faster than the alga at sufficiently high host densities, both at limiting and non-limiting phosphorus levels.
6. In spite of the reduced growth rate of the parasite, phosphorus limitation of Asterionella was found to facilitate the development of a Rhizophydium epidemic. This was a consequence of the reduced algal growth rate at phosphorus limitation, which makes the host population more easily outgrown by the parasite.
7. Phosphorus limitation of the host could reduce the threshold host density required for the development of an epidemic by a factor of 2.5.     

Metapopulation persistence and species spread in river networks

River networks define ecological corridors characterised by unidirectional streamflow, which may impose downstream drift to aquatic organisms or affect their movement. Animals and plants manage to persist in riverine ecosystems, though, which in fact harbour high biological diversity. Here, we study metapopulation persistence in river networks analysing stage‐structured populations that exploit different dispersal pathways, both along‐stream and overland. Using stability analysis, we derive a novel criterion for metapopulation persistence in arbitrarily complex landscapes described as spatial networks. We show how dendritic geometry and overland dispersal can promote population persistence, and that their synergism provides an explanation of the so‐called `drift paradox’. We also study the geography of the initial spread of a species and place it in the context of biological invasions. Applications concerning the persistence of stream salamanders in the Shenandoah river, and the spread of two invasive species in the Mississippi‐Missouri are also discussed.