Current issues in tropical phenology: a synthesis

We retrace the development of tropical phenology research, compare temperate phenology study to that in the tropics and highlight the advances currently being made in this flourishing discipline. The synthesis draws attention to how fundamentally different tropical phenology data can be to temperate data. Tropical plants lack a phase of winter dormancy and may grow and reproduce continually. Seasonal patterns in environmental parameters, such as rainfall, irradiance or temperature, do not necessarily coincide temporally, as they do in temperate climes. We review recent research on the drivers of phenophase cycles in individual trees, species and communities and highlight how significant innovations in biometric tools and approaches are being driven by the need to deal with circular data, the complexity of defining tropical seasons and the myriad growth and reproductive strategies used by tropical plants. We discuss how important the use of leaf phenology (or remotely‐sensed proxies of leaf phenophases) has become in tracking biome responses to climate change at the continental level and how important the phenophase of forests can be in determining local weather conditions. We also highlight how powerful analyses of plant responses are hampered at many tropical sites by a lack of contextual data on local environmental conditions. We conclude by arguing that there is a clear global benefit in increasing long term tropical phenology data collection and improving empirical collection of local climate measures, contemporary to the phenology data. Directing more resources to research in this sector will be widely beneficial.     

应用SWAT模型研究潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响

为定量分析潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对流域径流变化的影响,应用SWAT模型对流域上游至下游的大阁、戴营和下会3个水文站径流进行模拟,采用情景法分析径流对土地利用和气候变化的响应。在模型校准期和验证期采用两个参数:p因子和r因子来评价模拟的拟合度及不确定性。结果表明,3个水文站在校准期和验证期的p因子值分别为:0.70和0.77,0.87和0.82,0.92和0.78,r因子值分别为0.63和0.90,0.97和0.79,0.88和0.92,评价整个流域模拟有效性的模型目标函数g最佳值为0.66,说明该模型对潮河流域的产水量模拟具有很好的适用性。以1981—1990年为基准期,1991—2000年流域土地利用变化造成年径流量减少了4.10 mm,而气候变化导致年径流增加了29.68 mm;2001—2009年土地利用变化造成年径流量减少2.98mm,气候变化造成年径流量减少了14.30 mm。与1999年土地利用条件模拟径流值相比,几种极端情景法模拟分析结果表明:灌木林地情景下年径流增加了158.2%,草地情景下年径流增加了4.1%,林地和耕地情景下年径流分别减少23.7%和41.7%;不同气候变异情景模拟结果显示,径流对降水的变化敏感性高于对温度变化的敏感性,降水每增加10%,径流平均增加23.9%。温度每增加12%,径流平均减少6%。因此,在气候变化背景下,优化土地利用结构与方式是实现流域水资源科学管理的途径之一。     

Temperature-based population segregation in birch

Mean temperature of establishment years for warm‐ and cold‐year subpopulations of a naturally occurring stand of Betula pendula (birch) shows a difference equivalent to that between current temperatures and temperatures projected for 35–55 years hence, given ‘business as usual.’ The existence of ‘pre‐adapted’ individuals in standing tree populations would reduce temperature‐based advantages for invading species and, if general, bring into question assumptions currently used in models of global climate change. Our results demonstrate a methodology useful for investigating the important ecological issue of adaptation vs. range shifts as a means of response to climate change.     

A methodology for mapping current and future heat stress risk in pigs

Heat stress is a global issue constraining pig productivity, and it is likely to intensify under future climate change. Technological advances in earth observation have made tools available that enable identification and mapping livestock species that are at risk of exposure to heat stress due to climate change. Here, we present a methodology to map the current and likely future heat stress risk in pigs using R software by combining the effects of temperature and relative humidity. We applied the method to growing-finishing pigs in Uganda. We mapped monthly heat stress risk and quantified the number of pigs exposed to heat stress using 18 global circulation models and projected impacts in the 2050s. Results show that more than 800 000 pigs in Uganda will be affected by heat stress in the future. The results can feed into evidence-based policy, planning and targeted resource allocation in the livestock sector.     

中国遥感干旱指数时空特征及其对气候和地表覆盖变化的响应

干旱严重影响植被生长,威胁粮食安全,基于遥感计算的植被状态指数（Vegetation Condition Index,VCI）、温度状态指数（Temperature Condition Index,TCI）和植被健康指数（Vegetation Health Index,VHI）是常用的干旱指数,被广泛应用于干旱监测。为了探究近年来我国干旱特征及其对气候和地表覆盖变化的响应,分析了2003-2016年期间VCI、TCI和VHI的时空变化特征;采用最小二乘（OLS）和偏相关分析方法分析了这些指数对气候和地表覆盖变化的响应。基于上述干旱指数计算的干旱频率表明,中温带中部和南温带等地区干旱发生频率高,干旱指数变化趋势表明在2003-2016年期间中国大部分地区干旱缓解,但在中温带、南温带和高原气候区等局部地区干旱加剧;总体而言,干旱指数随着年平均温度的上升和年降水量的降低而减小,VHI与温度和降水量的相关性在不同气候区的一致性优于VCI和TCI;裸土的减少和植被的增加导致干旱指数增大,树木转变为低矮植被干旱指数降低。     

毕节试验区石漠化时空演变过程和演变特征

基于RS和GIS技术,解译了2000、2005和2010年3期毕节试验区石漠化数据,利用空间分析和数理统计分析方法,在探讨石漠化时空演变总体特征的基础上,选取演变方式、演变方向和演变速率等指标,重点分析了不同石漠化强度之间的内部转移特征,演绎了10年间毕节试验区石漠化演变过程。研究表明:(1)10年间,石漠化总面积呈现先增加后趋稳的演变态势,石漠化扩张趋势虽然初步遏制,但局部地区还在恶化,防治形势仍很严峻;(2)石漠化演变方式以渐变式为主,跳跃式为辅,返变式最少;(3)石漠化演变的方向既存在改善也存在恶化,且轻度改善和轻度恶化的面积均比较大,一边治理、一边破坏的现象还没有根本遏制;(4)非石漠化与石漠化相互转换非常活跃,潜在石漠化虽被定义为非石漠化,但并不稳定,容易转变为石漠化;(5)石漠化演变速率分为转入速率、转出速率和综合速率,中度石漠化综合速率最高,转入速率大于转出速率,潜在石漠化和轻度石漠化是中度石漠化增加的主要来源;(6)石漠化时空演变特征与生态环境建设及社会经济发展具有一定的相关性。该研究成果为喀斯特山区生态环境保护和石漠化防治提供了有益的参考。     

Eco-environmental changes assessment at the Chiufenershan landslide area caused by catastrophic earthquake in Central Taiwan

A large-scale landslide, caused by the catastrophic earthquake on 21 September 1999, occurred at the Chiufenershan area in Central Taiwan. Multi-temporal SPOT satellite images coupled with a self-organizing map neural network, terrain analysis, Universal Soil Loss Equation, and landscape patch indicators were used to assess eco-environmental changes of the denudation sites, such as changes of the post-quake landslide, terrain displacement, soil erosion, and landscape ecology. The extracted area soon after the earthquake was 215.68 ha. From 1999 through 2006, the denudation area declined to 113.36 ha, which indicates that about 47.44% of the landslide has been restored. Based on terrain analysis for the denudation sites, the debris volumes at the collapsed and deposited areas are 31,896,667 m³ and 39,537,067 m³, respectively. The large amount of debris blocked two streams, the Satsikenghsi and the Chiutsaihuhsi, to form two landslide-dammed lakes. The annual erosion depth soon after the earthquake reached 22.07 mm, about 3.59 times as high as pre-quake. Without vegetation cover on the topsoil, the denudation sites became high-erosion areas during subsequent typhoon seasons. However, with landslide restoration, annual soil erosion depth prediction has reduced to 13.54 mm, about 2.21 times as high as pre-quake. In addition, the assessment of landscape patch indicators also points out the heterogeneity and the degree of richness of the landscape due to vegetation recovery at the landslide area. The analyzed results show that nature itself has a robust ability to restore its original landscape and mitigate disaster impacts for the destroyed eco-environment.     

The anatomy of a shrike bite: bill shape and bite performance in Loggerhead Shrikes

There is evidence that fisheries are altering the phenotypic composition of fish populations, often in ways that may reduce the value of fish stocks for the exploiters. Despite the increasing number of theoretical and field studies, there is still debate as to whether these changes are genetic, can be reversed, and are occurring rapidly enough to be considered in fisheries management. We review the contribution that selection experiments have already provided with respect to the study of the evolutionary effect of fisheries, identify issues that still require more study, and outline future directions for doing so. Selection experiments have already been crucial in showing that harvesting can lead to phenotypic and genetic evolution over relatively short time frames. Furthermore, the experiments have shown the changes involve many other traits than those under direct selection, and that these changes tend to have population‐level consequences, including a decreasing fisheries yield. However, experiments focused on fisheries‐induced evolution that fulfil all our requirements are still lacking. Future studies should have more controlled and realistic set‐ups and assess genetic changes in maturation and growth (i.e. traits most often reported to change) to be more relevant to exploited populations in the wild. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 111 , 485–503.     

Temporal lags in observed and dark diversity in the Anthropocene

Understanding biodiversity changes in the Anthropocene (e.g. due to climate and land‐use change) is an urgent ecological issue. This important task is challenging because global change effects and species responses are dependent on the spatial scales considered. Furthermore, responses are often not immediate. However, both scale and time delay issues can be tackled when, at each study site, we consider dynamics in both observed and dark diversity. Dark diversity includes those species in the region that can potentially establish and thrive in the local sites’ conditions but are currently locally absent. Effectively, dark diversity connects biodiversity at the study site to the regional scales and defines the site‐specific species pool (observed and dark diversity together). With dark diversity, it is possible to decompose species gains and losses into two space‐related components: one associated with local dynamics (species moving from observed to dark diversity and vice versa) and another related to gains and losses of site‐specific species pool (species moving to and from the pool after regional immigration, regional extinction or change in local ecological conditions). Extinction debt and immigration credit are useful to understand dynamics in observed diversity, but delays might happen in species pool changes as well. In this opinion piece we suggest that considering both observed and dark diversity and their temporal dynamics provides a deeper understanding of biodiversity changes. Considering both observed and dark diversity creates opportunities to improve conservation by allowing to identify species that are likely to go regionally extinct as well as foreseeing which of the species that newly arrive to the region are more likely to colonize local sites. Finally, by considering temporal lags and species gains and losses in observed and dark diversity, we combine phenomena at both spatial and temporal scales, providing a novel tool to examine biodiversity change in the Anthropocene.     

近40年东北地区陆栖脊椎动物种群数量及其生境变化评估

生物多样性是生态平衡维持和生态过程与功能实现的基础,东北地区是我国乃至全球生物多样性最为丰富的地区之一。为研究和探讨东北地区陆栖脊椎动物种群数量与生境变化之间的关系,利用物种调查数据和生境遥感观测数据,以地球生命力指数、生态系统面积和破碎度等指示性指标,综合评估了近40年东北地区陆栖脊椎动物种群数量及其生境变化。结果表明:1970—2010年,东北地区陆栖脊椎动物种群数量下降了近70.1%,森林脊椎动物种群数量减少了近80.9%,草原和荒漠生态系统脊椎动物种群数量增加了近180.9%。1980—2010年,湿地物种种群数量减少了近75.7%。1980—2015年期间,农业和城镇建设用地增幅分别达到25.2%和32.3%,不断挤占和蚕食着自然生态空间,致使自然生境面积不断减少,减幅约为8.0%。自然生境景观破碎化程度总体呈现加重趋势,尤其是森林生境,破碎化指数增加约42.7%。但是,2005年之后,自然生境景观破碎化程度加重趋势趋缓,与2005年之后脊椎动物种群数量减少幅度减缓趋势一致。森林砍伐、人口增长、城镇化、交通建设等造成的自然生态系统破碎度增加和栖息地质量下降对大型兽类影响比较显著。     

陕北气候变化与生态植被变迁

分析了128万年以来陕北气候变化及其生态植被变迁。结果表明,陕北黄土高原气候经历了多次冷、暖、干、湿的周期变化。陕北植被变迁在地质时期以及历史时期早期,主要由气候条件所控制,植被类型随气候的冷暖干湿变化而变迁。随着人类活动的加剧,气候条件不再是影响植被变迁的唯一因素,人类活动对植被的影响愈来愈明显。明清时期,气候冷干,旱灾频繁．陕北生态环境脆弱,大规模垦殖和滥烧使自然植被迅速减少,陕北自然植被遭到毁灭性破坏。20世纪50年代,陕北逐步开始生态环境治理,在对生态环境治理的同时,又对部分地区自然植被进行破坏。20世纪80年代以后,生态环境总体上趋于好转。     

Species selection and random drift in macroevolution

Species selection resulting from trait‐dependent speciation and extinction is increasingly recognized as an important mechanism of phenotypic macroevolution. However, the recent bloom in statistical methods quantifying this process faces a scarcity of dynamical theory for their interpretation, notably regarding the relative contributions of deterministic versus stochastic evolutionary forces. I use simple diffusion approximations of birth‐death processes to investigate how the expected and random components of macroevolutionary change depend on phenotype‐dependent speciation and extinction rates, as can be estimated empirically. I show that the species selection coefficient for a binary trait, and selection differential for a quantitative trait, depend not only on differences in net diversification rates (speciation minus extinction), but also on differences in species turnover rates (speciation plus extinction), especially in small clades. The randomness in speciation and extinction events also produces a species‐level equivalent to random genetic drift, which is stronger for higher turnover rates. I then show how microevolutionary processes including mutation, organismic selection, and random genetic drift cause state transitions at the species level, allowing comparison of evolutionary forces across levels. A key parameter that would be needed to apply this theory is the distribution and rate of origination of new optimum phenotypes along a phylogeny.     

Patterns of daily stem growth in different tree species in a warm-temperate forest in northern China

Radial growth in trees responds to environmental changes in various ways ranging from immediate to hysteretic responses. However, species-specific tree radial growth patterns and their responses to short-term weather changes are not fully understood. Here, the daily stem radial changes (SRCs) in four common tree species, linden (Tilia mongolica), birch (Betula dahurica), oak (Quercus wutaishanica) and larch (Larix principis-rupprechtii), were monitored with high-resolution point dendrometers during the main growing seasons in 2017–2019 on Dongling Mountain, northern China. The SRC was differentiated into tree water deficit-induced stem shrinkage (TWD) and growth-induced irreversible stem expansion (GRO) to evaluate species-specific responses to weather variables and short-term drought events. We found that the TWD and GRO of the four species were significantly different. The TWD was influenced primarily by the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), whereas the GRO was influenced primarily by precipitation (P). In linden and birch, a larger proportion of the GRO occurred at higher air temperature (T_mean) and VPD values; in contrast, the range of these changes was lower in oak and larch. With the increased durations of drought periods, oak and larch experienced large and rapid increases in TWD, whereas birch and linden showed small and slow increases. These results indicate that oak and larch would be sensitive to warmer and drier weather conditions predicted for the future, while linden and birch would have a conservative growth strategy. Our results provide further insights into the physiology of these four tree species and allow us to better predict the growth response of forest dynamics under climate change.     

The future of South East Asian rainforests in a changing landscape and climate

With a focus on the Danum Valley area of Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, this special issue has as its theme the future of tropical rainforests in a changing landscape and climate. The global environmental context to the issue is briefly given before the contents and rationale of the issue are summarized. Most of the papers are based on research carried out as part of the Royal Society South East Asia Rainforest Research Programme. The issue is divided into five sections: (i) the historical land-use and land management context; (ii) implications of land-use change for atmospheric chemistry and climate change; (iii) impacts of logging, forest fragmentation (particularly within an oil palm plantation landscape) and forest restoration on ecosystems and their functioning; (iv) the response and resilience of rainforest systems to climatic and land-use change; and (v) the scientific messages and policy implications arising from the research findings presented in the issue.     

荒漠草原土壤动物与降雨关系研究现状

在全球性气候变化背景下,极端降雨事件频发,总结土壤动物多样性与降雨变化间的关系及其响应机制,有助于理解全球变化对土壤生态系统结构与功能的作用过程,对于探讨陆地生态系统应对全球变化具有重要科学意义。荒漠草原生态系统极度脆弱,对气候变化敏感,但是关于荒漠草原土壤动物与降雨变化间关系的研究报道比较少,严重制约了对荒漠草原生态系统的有效管理和可持续利用。本文从地上、地面和地下3个方面总结了土壤动物和降雨变化间的关系,并就荒漠草原土壤动物应对气候变化研究提出了一些建议。研究表明,降雨变化直接影响土壤动物群落结构;土壤动物对降雨变化反应强烈,不同动物类群产生了积极的响应规律;某些土壤动物类群对于降雨变化还具有重要指示作用。在荒漠草原生态系统中,今后需要从降雨变化对土壤动物产生的长期影响、土壤动物对降雨变化的适应方式和某些动物类群对土壤水分敏感性以及土壤动物与气候变化间的互为反馈关系等方面加强研究。     

Changes in seasonal precipitation distribution but not annual amount affect litter decomposition in a secondary tropical forest

In the tropics of South China, climate change induced more rainfall events in the wet season in the last decades. Moreover, there will be more frequently spring drought in the future. However, knowledge on how litter decomposition rate would respond to these seasonal precipitation changes is still limited. In the present study, we conducted a precipitation manipulation experiment in a tropical forest. First, we applied a 60% rainfall exclusion in April and May to defer the onset of wet season and added the same amount of water in October and November to mimic a deferred wet season (DW); second, we increased as much as 25% mean annual precipitation into plots in July and August to simulate a wetter wet season (WW). Five single‐species litters, with their carbon to nitrogen ratio ranged from 27 to 49, and a mixed litter were used to explore how the precipitation change treatments would affect litter decomposition rate. The interaction between precipitation changes and litter species was not significant. The DW treatment marginally accelerated litter decomposition across six litter types. Detailed analysis showed that DW increased litter decomposition rate in the periods of January to March and October to December, when soil moisture was increased by the water addition in the dry season. In contrast, WW did not significantly affect litter decomposition rate, which was consistent with the unchanged soil moisture pattern. In conclusion, the study indicated that regardless of litter types or litter quality, the projected deferred wet season would increase litter decomposition rate, whereas the wetter wet season would not affect litter decomposition rate in the tropical forests. This study improves our knowledge of how tropical forest carbon cycling in response to precipitation change.     

How phenological tracking shapes species and communities in non-stationary environments

Climate change alters the environments of all species. Predicting species responses requires understanding how species track environmental change, and how such tracking shapes communities. Growing empirical evidence suggests that how species track phenologically – how an organism shifts the timing of major biological events in response to the environment – is linked to species performance and community structure. Such research tantalizingly suggests a potential framework to predict the winners and losers of climate change, and the future communities we can expect. But developing this framework requires far greater efforts to ground empirical studies of phenological tracking in relevant ecological theory. Here we review the concept of phenological tracking in empirical studies and through the lens of coexistence theory to show why a community-level perspective is critical to accurate predictions with climate change. While much current theory for tracking ignores the importance of a multi-species context, basic community assembly theory predicts that competition will drive variation in tracking and trade-offs with other traits. We highlight how existing community assembly theory can help understand tracking in stationary and non-stationary systems. But major advances in predicting the species- and community-level consequences of climate change will require advances in theoretical and empirical studies. We outline a path forward built on greater efforts to integrate priority effects into modern coexistence theory, improved empirical estimates of multivariate environmental change, and clearly defined estimates of phenological tracking and its underlying environmental cues.     

附生植物对全球变化的响应及其生物指示作用

附生植物是一类生活在其他植物体上但不从宿主载体吸收营养和水分的特殊植物,其特有的形态结构和生态习性导致了它们对周围环境变化具有高度的敏感性和脆弱性.研究附生植物对全球变化的响应及其生物指示作用,具有重要的指导意义和应用价值.本文概述了附生植物对大气组成变化、气候变化和土地利用/覆盖方式转变等全球变化事件的响应及其生物指...     

Change and Continuity in a Pastoralist Community in the High Peruvian Andes

Pastoralists of the high Andes Mountains raise mixed herds of camelids and sheep. This study evaluates the land use of herdsmen who are confronted by both socioeconomic and climate changes in Huancavelica, central Peru. Land use/ land cover change (LULCC) was measured through satellite imagery, and pastoralists’ capacity to adapt to socioenvironmental changes was evaluated through interviews and archival research. The most dynamic LULCCs between 1990 and 2000 were large increases in wetlands and a loss of permanent ice. We conclude that the people’s responses to these changes will depend on availability of institutions to manage pastures, other household resources, and perceptions of these biophysical changes. Socioenvironmental change is not new in the study area, but current shifts will likely force this community to alter its rules of access to pastures, its economic rationales in regards to commodities produced, and the degree of dependence on seasonal wage labor. In this scenario, households with a greater amount of livestock will fare better in terms of assets and capital that will allow them to benefit from the increasing presence of a market economy in a landscape undergoing climate change.

Population trends of breeding birds in British woodlands over a 32-year period: relationships with food, habitat use and migratory behaviour

This paper outlines population trends (with confidence intervals) for 49 species in woodland habitats in Britain as monitored by the British Trust for Ornithology's (BTO) Common Bird Census (CBC) between 1967 and 1999. Additionally, the possible causes of these population trends are investigated by relating the ecological characteristics of species to the degree of population change they have undergone over different time periods. Over the whole period, 17 species showed significant decreases in abundance and 12 species showed significant increases. Whilst population trajectories were diverse, long-distance migrants showed more negative trends than other species and the timing of the changes in their populations was related to their wintering latitude, suggesting that these species may be suffering from environmental changes in the non-breeding season. There was also support for habitat specializations being related to population changes, with species classified as scrub and understorey specialists declining on average, but this was only evident across the entire study period. Additionally, species eating seeds in summer declined and those eating vegetation and making use of the agricultural landscape matrix increased. Therefore wide-scale factors such as landscape-scale processes or processes operating outside of Britain appear to be important in addition to local habitat change, especially for long-distance migrants.