吉林省农业气象干旱灾害的风险分析及区划

利用1961-2010年吉林省50个站气候观测资料、1981-2010年干旱灾情和农业经济资料,基于灾害风险系统分析理论、农田水分平衡法和综合灾害风险指数法,在分析干旱对吉林省农业影响致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防旱减灾能力的基础上,应用加权综合法得到不同单元的综合风险度指数;基于GIS技术,开展了干旱对吉林省农业影响的风险区划.结果表明:致灾因子危险性的高值区分布在西部的白城和松原大部分地区,孕灾环境敏感性的高值区分布在白城地区、松原地区、四平地区北部和通化地区南部,承灾体脆弱性的高值区主要分布在经济较发达的松原大部分地区、长春大部分地区、四平地区等,防旱减灾能力的高值区分布在松原、长春、四平、吉林和通化市区及其周边地区.考虑各因子的综合风险度,干旱对吉林省农业影响的风险可分为高风险、次高风险、中等风险、次低风险和低风险5个等级,其中,高、次高风险主要分布在吉林省中西部的白城、松原、长春和四平地区.     

福建省台风灾害风险评估与区划

应用GIS技术,采用灾害风险指数法和加权综合评价法对福建省台风灾害风险进行评估及区划.结果表明:致灾因子危险性最大值分布在福建省东部沿海,承灾体的脆弱性最高值分布在东部的福州、厦门、泉州、漳州、莆田和宁德沿海以及西部的三明、龙岩、南平等地级市辖区,防灾减灾能力的分布比较分散,最高值主要分布在闽南的漳州、厦门、同安,闽中的泉州沿海以及莆田与福州沿海地区,另外还零散分布在福建西部的龙岩、三明、南平等地级市;综合考虑各因子指数的台风灾害风险度最高值(即风险度＞0.126)集中分布在福建省东部沿海的漳州、厦门、泉州、莆田、福州和宁德沿海地区.福建省台风灾害风险评估及区划可为福建省可持续发展和防灾减灾决策提供科学依据.     

基于GIS技术的吉林省生态灾害风险评价

基于自然灾害风险形成原理,综合考虑吉林省自然和社会经济现状,从致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的暴露性和脆弱性及防灾减灾能力4个方面选取指标,利用自然灾害风险指数法、加权综合评价法及层次分析法构建生态灾害风险评价模型,评价了各风险因子的贡献率,并运用GIS技术生成吉林省生态灾害风险区划图.评价结果对于正确认识吉林省的生态环境风险水平,有针对性地确定生态恢复与管理决策都有重要意义.     

安吉白茶精细化气象灾害风险分析与区划

气象灾害严重威胁茶产业高质量发展,开展气象灾害风险精细评价可为茶叶生产灾害精准防控提供科学依据。本文基于自然灾害风险理论、安吉县及周边7个国家气象站1971—2020年和安吉县23个区域自动气象站2012—2020年的逐日气象资料、15个乡镇农业社会经济统计资料,以及源于GF-2卫星遥感数据解译出的茶树种植现状分布图和DEM高程等多源信息,采用加权综合指数法、模糊层次分析法和GIS技术,对安吉白茶进行了精细化气象灾害风险分析与区划。结果表明：安吉白茶致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境暴露性的高值主要位于南部山区,承灾体脆弱性的高值集中于中部平原地区,防灾减灾能力的高值多位于中东部平原地区;综合考虑各因子的综合风险度,安吉白茶气象灾害风险可分为低风险、中风险和高风险3个等级;低风险区主要分布于安吉中北部平原区域,占安吉县地域面积的66.55%;中风险区主要分布于安吉西部、南部的中高海拔区域,占安吉县地域面积的30.54%;高风险区主要位于南部高海拔山区,占安吉县地域面积的3.01%;集成格点化的茶树种植现状,安吉县内61.21%的茶园分布在低风险区,38.17%的茶园分布在中风险区,0.62%的茶...     

基于GIS的四川盆周北部山区夏玉米农业气象灾害风险评估——以旺苍县为例

气象灾害是制约我国农业发展的主要因素之一,明确夏玉米农业气象灾害风险对于防灾减灾具有重要意义。本研究基于自然灾害风险理论,以四川盆地北部山区的典型区域(旺苍县)1981—2018年气象数据和玉米产量数据为基础,确定影响夏玉米生产的主要致灾因子,并结合孕灾环境敏感性及承灾体脆弱性构建夏玉米综合农业气象灾害风险评估模型,对四川盆地北部山区夏玉米生产过程中的农业气象灾害风险进行评估。结果表明: 研究期间,成熟期高温、花期暴雨、成熟期暴雨、灌浆期连阴雨和孕穗期干旱是影响研究区夏玉米生长发育的主要农业气象灾害。旺苍县夏玉米农业气象灾害综合风险分布大致呈西南-东北走向,高风险和较高风险区分布区域约占旺苍县总面积的二分之一;灾害风险高值区主要位于研究区西南部,基本与致灾因子危险性高值区一致;灾害风险低值区多集中在西部边缘,此区域亦为成熟期高温、成熟期暴雨、花期暴雨气象灾害的低风险区。     

黄淮海地区夏玉米生长季的干旱风险

干旱是对农业影响最大的农业气象灾害,进行干旱风险评估对于提升区域灾害风险管理和决策水平、减轻农业损失具有重要的指导意义.本文基于自然灾害风险理论,利用黄淮海夏玉米主产区69个站点的气象、夏玉米播种面积和产量数据,以及当地有效灌溉面积等数据,从灾害风险的危险性、脆弱性、暴露性和防灾减灾能力4个方面构建风险评估指标和模型,对黄淮海夏玉米主产区干旱灾害的风险进行评估分析.结果表明: 黄淮海地区夏玉米生长季(6—9月),干旱发生危险性最大的阶段主要是播种-出苗期和乳熟-成熟期,其中,河北中南部、河南西部和北部的危险性最大.经加权叠加脆弱性、暴露性和防灾减灾能力后,夏玉米干旱综合风险最大的地区主要分布在河南西部和西南部部分地区;其次是河南南部、河北沧州、邢台以及山东德州等地,属于次高风险区;风险低值区主要分布在山东南部、安徽北部和河南的信阳等地;其他地区属于中度风险区.     

基于灾害风险综合指标的陕西省农业干旱时空特征

随着气候变化,农业干旱直接威胁粮食安全.本文以陕西省为研究对象,基于自然灾害风险理论,综合考虑干旱灾害影响因素,从致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的暴露性、环境的脆弱性和地区的抗旱能力4个风险要素选取指标,采用层次分析法确定指标权重,构建自然灾害风险综合指标,分析2009—2013年陕西省农业干旱时空特征.结果表明: 研究期间,陕北地区农业干旱风险略呈下降趋势;陕南地区呈急剧升高态势,以商洛市为甚;关中地区基本稳定,以咸阳市最高、西安市最低.陕西省农业干旱风险大体呈现从南向北逐渐递增现象.     

台湾番石榴在福建引种的寒冻害风险分析与区划

基于灾害风险系统分析理论和灾害风险指数法,利用福建番石榴引种区历年气象资料、种植面积、产量及其他社会经济资料,分析了寒冻害对福建省番石榴影响致灾因子危险性、承险体脆弱性和防寒防冻能力;应用加权综合法得到不同单元的综合风险指数,并应用GIS技术对福建省番石榴引种区的寒冻害风险进行区划。结果表明:致灾因子危险性的高值区分布在龙岩市、漳州和泉州两市的西部山区、莆田市西北部、福州市西部和宁德市大部;番石榴脆弱性高值区分布在平和县;防寒防冻能力的低值区主要分布在东部的部分县市。考虑各因子的综合风险度,寒冻害对福建省番石榴引种的风险可分为轻度、中度、重度和严重4个风险等级,其中重度以上的风险主要分布在龙岩市、漳州市西部山区、泉州和莆田两市的高海拔山区、福州市内陆山区和宁德市大部。     

基于GIS的四川盆区小麦条锈病风险评价与区划

利用四川盆区1961—2017年气象数据、1999—2016年小麦条锈病监测资料以及农业生产、地理信息等数据,基于自然灾害风险评估原理和四川盆区小麦条锈病发生机理,运用集优法、加权综合评价法、层次分析法等,构建了四川盆区小麦条锈病发生风险评价指标体系和评价模型。在GIS技术支持下,对条锈病孕灾环境敏感性、致灾因子危险性、承载体易损性和防灾减灾能力4要素分别进行了评价,对四川盆区小麦条锈病发生风险进行了评估和分区。结果表明:四川盆区整体气象环境对小麦条锈病越冬和春季流行适宜;危险性指数较高的区域主要分布在盆地的西部地区;盆西平原、盆中浅丘的易损性指数较高;盆西、盆南和盆中与盆东北相交的浅丘地区防灾减灾能力较强。研究将条锈病发生风险划分为轻、低、中、高4个不同等级,高风险区分布在盆地西部;中、低风险区分布面积相当广,前者呈零散状分布,后者主要集中在盆地西部和中部;轻风险区分布面积最广。     

海南岛橡胶(Hevea brasiliensis)寒害风险区划

寒害是海南岛橡胶面临的主要气象灾害之一,开展橡胶寒害风险区划能够有效提高海南岛橡胶寒害防御能力。根据海南岛1964—2016年的气象资料和1988—2016年橡胶种植面积、产量、社会经济等数据,通过构建橡胶寒害指数和台风灾害指数,实现了橡胶寒害减产率的分离,基于风险形成的机理,选择橡胶寒害的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力4个因子,建立海南岛橡胶寒害风险评估模型,计算橡胶寒害风险指数,并按自然断点法划分为5个风险等级。结果表明:海南岛橡胶寒害风险总体呈现西北部和中部较高,其他沿海地区较低的特征;西北部临高风险最高,其次为中部五指山地区;西南部东方、乐东沿海地区,以及北部海口、文昌风险最低;南部三亚和陵水无寒害风险。     

中国中东部地区暴雨气候及其农业灾情的风险评估

利用中国中东部292个站点1961-2008年的暴雨气候资料和各省的农业灾情资料,采用主成分分析、软直方图估计、灰色关联法、正态信息扩散等方法,分别构建了暴雨气候指数、农业相对灾情指数及其风险估算模型,对中国中东部地区暴雨气候及其农业灾情的风险进行了研究.结果表明:中国中东部地区的暴雨气候风险,由南向北逐渐减少,高值区位于海南和广东、广西的沿海地区,其次是广西和广东的中北部,江淮地区的湖北、安徽、江西以及湘赣地区的湖南,低值区主要位于除辽宁沿海区域外的东北地区以及华北北部的河北和山西;农业相对灾情风险的高值区位于江淮地区的安徽、湖北,湘赣地区的湖南,东南沿海的广东,低值区是华北地区的河北、河南,东北地区的辽宁;除广东省外,各代表省的暴雨气候指数与农业相对灾情指数的相关系数均达到0.6以上(P＜0.Ol).经多年实际农业灾情验证,暴雨气候指数和农业相对灾情指数能较好地评估实际暴雨的强度及其对农业的影响.     

The importance of Quaternary records in reducing risk from tropical cyclones

Numerous late Holocene records of tropical cyclones have been collected from north-east Queensland, Australia. They are in the form of multiple sedimentary ridges paralleling the shore. The ridges are composed of coral fragments, or shell and sand or pure sand. A method to determine the intensity of the tropical cyclone responsible for deposition of the ridges at each site has been applied and the results suggest that in the majority of cases these features were deposited by very high magnitude events. The results suggest that extrapolations of long-term cyclone magnitude and frequencies from the 30- to 40-year-long instrumental record, which is the method commonly used to assess risk from this hazard, substantially underestimate the risk from this hazard. This is confirmed for the Cairns region by an 800-year-long high-resolution isotope record of tropical cyclones preserved in a limestone stalagmite. Together the sedimentary and isotope records suggest that tropical cyclone activity in north-east Queensland has been in a phase of quiescence since before European settlement of the region in approximately AD 1870. It is suggested that the incorporation of the palaeo record into risk assessments will provide a more realistic guide to the magnitude frequency relationship of tropical cyclones and help reduce risk from this hazard as a consequence.     

Source apportionment and health risk assessment of heavy metals in agricultural soils in Xinglonggang,Northeastern China

Heavy metals in soil can affect human health through the exposure pathways of oral ingestion, dermal contact, and inhalation. In this study, to assess the health risk of heavy metals in the agricultural area of Xinglonggang, 52 soil samples were collected and tested to obtain the concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, V, and Zn in the soil. The enrichment factor indicated that the heavy metals of the agricultural soils were enriched, but the degree of enrichment was mild for all of the heavy metals. Coefficient analysis and principal component analysis indicated that V, Cr, Ni, and Pb were mainly from natural sources, As was from irrigation, Cu and Cd tended to be from chemical fertilizers and pesticides, and Zn was from mixed sources including irrigation, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides. A human-health risk assessment indicated that the residents in the study area face high risk from carcinogens and low risk from noncarcinogens; As and Cr are the major heavy metals affecting human health. This study provides a reference and a basis for formulating effective measures to prevent and control heavy metal enrichment in agricultural soils.     

Relationship between tropical cyclones and the distribution of sea turtle nesting grounds

Aim This study examines the relationship between the distribution of existing sea turtle nesting sites and historical patterns of tropical cyclone events to investigate whether cyclones influence the current distribution of sea turtle nesting sites. The results, together with information on predicted cyclone activity and other key environmental variables, will help in the identification and prediction of future nesting sites for sea turtles as changes to the coastal environment continue. Location Queensland, Australia. Methods We used data on the nesting distribution of seven populations of four species of sea turtles [green (Chelonia mydas), flatback (Natator depressus), hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and loggerhead (Caretta caretta)] from the eastern Queensland coast, and tropical cyclone track data from 1969 to 2007 to explore the relationship between (1) sea turtle nesting phenology and cyclone season, and (2) sea turtle nesting sites and cyclone distribution. Furthermore, using two green turtle populations as a case study, we investigated the relationship between cyclone disturbance and sea turtle reproductive output, nesting site and season. Bootstrapping was used to explore if current sea turtle nesting sites are located in areas with lower or higher cyclone frequency than areas where turtles are currently not nesting. Results All populations of sea turtles studied here were disturbed by cyclone activity during the study period. The exposure (frequency) of tropical cyclones that crossed each nesting site varied greatly among and within the various sea turtle populations. This was mainly a result of the spatial distribution of each population’s nesting sites. Bootstrapping indicated that nesting sites generally have experienced lower cyclone activity than other areas that are available for nesting. Main conclusions Tropical cyclones might have been sufficiently detrimental to sea turtle hatching success on the eastern Queensland coast that through a natural selection process turtles in this region are now nesting in areas with lower cyclone activity. Therefore, it is important that future studies that predict climate or range shifts for sea turtle nesting distributions consider future cyclone activity as one of the variables in their model.     

Pesticide Risk Perceptions,Knowledge, and Attitudes of Operators,Workers, and Residents: A Review of the Literature

The literature on the risk perceptions, knowledge levels, and attitudes of operators, workers, and residents in relation to non-dietary exposure to agricultural pesticides is reviewed. No literature was identified in relation to bystander exposure. Research has primarily been conducted on participants in developing countries and migrant workers in the United States. For operators and workers, illiteracy, poverty, and a perception that exposure to pesticides is an inevitable part of their work results in limited adoption of safety precautions while using and storing pesticides. As a result, risk communication activities aimed at operator and workers need to take account of the wider socioeconomic and cultural conditions in which workers and operators are working and living. There is less research focused on residents’ and bystanders’ perceptions, attitudes, and behaviors. The lack of European data in general, and residents’ and bystanders’ data in particular, represents a knowledge gap that is pertinent to emerging EU legislation requiring residents’ and bystanders’ inclusion in pesticide risk assessment. This review provides a comprehensive overview that can assist policy-makers, and risk communicators in the development of targeted training and awareness-raising material for operators, workers, bystanders, and residents. Areas for future research are suggested.     

Contrasting effects of tropical cyclones on the annual survival of a pelagic seabird in the Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclones are renowned for their destructive nature and are an important feature of marine and coastal tropical ecosystems. Over the last 40 years, their intensity, frequency and tracks have changed, partly in response to ocean warming, and future predictions indicate that these trends are likely to continue with potential consequences for human populations and coastal ecosystems. However, our understanding of how tropical cyclones currently affect marine biodiversity, and pelagic species in particular, is limited. For seabirds, the impacts of cyclones are known to be detrimental at breeding colonies, but impacts on the annual survival of pelagic adults and juveniles remain largely unexplored and no study has simultaneously explored the direct impacts of cyclones on different life‐history stages across the annual life cycle. We used a 20‐year data set on tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean, tracking data from 122 Round Island petrels and long‐term capture–mark–recapture data to explore the impacts of tropical cyclones on the survival of adult and juvenile (first year) petrels during both the breeding and migration periods. The tracking data showed that juvenile and adult Round Island petrels utilize the three cyclone regions of the Indian Ocean and were potentially exposed to cyclones for a substantial part of their annual cycle. However, only juvenile petrel survival was affected by cyclone activity; negatively by a strong cyclone in the vicinity of the breeding colony and positively by increasing cyclone activity in the Northern Indian Ocean where they spend the majority of their first year at sea. These contrasting effects raise the intriguing prospect that the projected changes in cyclones under current climate change scenarios may have positive as well as the more commonly perceived negative impacts on marine biodiversity.     

Effects of a tropical cyclone on the distribution of hatchery‐reared black‐spot tuskfish Choerodon schoenleinii determined by acoustic telemetry

The effects of a tropical cyclone on the distribution of hatchery‐reared black‐spot tuskfish Choerodon schoenleinii were examined using acoustic telemetry. Nine fish were released in Urasoko Bay, Ishigaki Island, Japan, in September 2006, and another nine were released in June to July 2007, before a cyclone's passing through the area in September 2007. Data for the fish released in 2006 were used as the cyclone‐inexperienced group to compare their distribution pattern to that of the 2007 cyclone‐experienced group. Both groups of fish were monitored for up to 150 days. Of the nine fish in each group, four (44%) and two (22%) were monitored for over 150 days in the cyclone‐inexperienced and the cyclone‐experienced groups, respectively. Three of the five fish that had settled in the monitoring area left the area within a few days of the cyclone event. To estimate the time of disappearance of the fish, maximum wind speed during a period of 7 days (indicating the occurrence and intensity of the tropical cyclone), fish size and release year were evaluated as explanatory variables using a Cox proportional hazards model with Akaike's information criterion. The best predictive model included the effect of maximum wind speed. One fish that left the monitoring area displayed movement patterns related to strong winds, suggesting that wind‐associated strong currents swept the fish away. No relationships were found between the movement patterns of the other two fish and any physical environmental data. The daily detection periods of one of the two fish gradually decreased after the cyclone hit, and this fish eventually left the monitoring area within 3 days, suggesting that it shifted to a habitat outside the monitoring area. These results indicate that tropical cyclones have both direct and indirect effects on the distribution of hatchery‐reared C. schoenleinii.     

影响福建省龙眼产量的多灾种综合风险评估

通过分析影响福建省龙眼生长发育和产量的主要环境因素,从致灾因子危险性、承险体脆弱性和种植区防灾减灾能力三方面构建影响龙眼产量的多灾种综合风险评估指标体系,结合福建省龙眼种植区历年气象资料、龙眼种植面积、产量及其他社会经济资料,应用层次分析法和熵权系数法确定风险指标的综合权重,进而构建了多灾种综合风险评估模型,评估主要农业气象灾害对龙眼产量影响的风险.结果表明： 长乐以南沿海县市低海拔龙眼种植区（除东山县外）多灾种综合风险较轻;重度风险以上的区域主要分布在龙岩的漳平市,漳州的东山、平和、南靖、华安,泉州的永春、安溪,莆田和仙游的北部山区,福州的闽清、闽侯、罗源及市辖区的山区,宁德的福安、霞浦及市辖区的山区.其中,东山、漳平和其他海拔较高的山区有严重风险;其余种植区属中度风险.