Niche shifting in response to warming climate after the last glacial maximum: inference from genetic data and niche assessments in the chisel‐toothed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys microps)

During Pleistocene glacial‐interglacial cycles, the geographic range is often assumed to have shifted as a species tracks its climatic niche. Alternatively, the geographic range would not necessarily shift if a species can adapt in situ to a changing environment. The potential for a species to persist in place might increase with the diversity of habitat types that a species exploits. We evaluate evidence for either range shift or range stability between the last glacial maximum (LGM) and present time in the chisel‐toothed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys microps), an endemic of the Great Basin and Mojave deserts. We modeled how the species’ range would have changed if the climatic niche of the species remained conserved between the LGM and present time. The climatic models imply that if D. microps inhabited the same climatic niche during the LGM as it does today, the species would have persisted primarily within the warm Mojave Desert and expanded northwards into the cold Great Basin only after the LGM. Contrary to the climatic models, the mitochondrial DNA assessment revealed signals of population persistence within the current distribution of the species throughout at least the latest glacial‐interglacial cycle. We concluded that D. microps did not track its climatic niche during late Pleistocene oscillations, but rather met the challenge of a changing environment by shifting its niche and retaining large portions of its distribution. We speculate that this kind of response to fluctuating climate was possible because of ‘niche drifting’, an alteration of the species’ realized niche due to plasticity in various biological characters. Our study provides an example of an approach to reconstruct species’ responses to past climatic changes that can be used to evaluate whether and to what extent taxa have capacity to shift their niches in response to the changing environment – information becoming increasingly important to predicting biotic responses to future environmental changes.     

Life‐history predicts past and present population connectivity in two sympatric sea stars

Life‐history traits, especially the mode and duration of larval development, are expected to strongly influence the population connectivity and phylogeography of marine species. Comparative analysis of sympatric, closely related species with differing life histories provides the opportunity to specifically investigate these mechanisms of evolution but have been equivocal in this regard. Here, we sample two sympatric sea stars across the same geographic range in temperate waters of Australia. Using a combination of mitochondrial DNA sequences, nuclear DNA sequences, and microsatellite genotypes, we show that the benthic‐developing sea star, Parvulastra exigua, has lower levels of within‐ and among‐population genetic diversity, more inferred genetic clusters, and higher levels of hierarchical and pairwise population structure than Meridiastra calcar, a species with planktonic development. While both species have populations that have diverged since the middle of the second glacial period of the Pleistocene, most P. exigua populations have origins after the last glacial maxima (LGM), whereas most M. calcar populations diverged long before the LGM. Our results indicate that phylogenetic patterns of these two species are consistent with predicted dispersal abilities; the benthic‐developing P. exigua shows a pattern of extirpation during the LGM with subsequent recolonization, whereas the planktonic‐developing M. calcar shows a pattern of persistence and isolation during the LGM with subsequent post‐Pleistocene introgression.     

Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos

During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions – niches – to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos, a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post‐LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change.     

How did the exposed seafloor function in postglacial northward range expansion of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Kalopanax septemlobus</Emphasis>? Evidence from ecological niche modelling

We attempted to clarify how coastal lands temporarily exposed during the last glacial maximum (LGM) contributed to the northward colonisation of Kalopanax septemlobus (Thunb. ex Murray) Koidzumi during the postglacial period in the Japanese Archipelago. Distribution records in 30-arc-s pixels were related to bioclimate variables using the maximum entropy technique to model the ecological niche of this species. Bioclimatic conditions in the exposed coastal lands during the LGM were reconstructed based on simulated palaeoclimate and fine-resolution marine topography. Potential distribution ranges were then estimated under the climatic conditions during the LGM, mid-Holocene and the present. The ecological niche of this species was influenced mainly by the temperature component of the bioclimates, leading to northward range shift after the LGM as the climate warmed. On average, 26% of the potential range of K. septemlobus during the LGM was located on the exposed seafloor. The northern edges of the species range on both sides of Honshu Island were estimated by up to several hundred kilometres farther north, when compared to the prediction assuming no sea level change. Application of ecological niche modelling provided new insight into the role of exposed seafloor as cryptic glacial refugia for this species, which has never been evidenced by fossil records. In a temperate island system characterised by long coastlines, the northern exposed seafloor would have been more important in terms of harbouring the putative source populations for northward directional colonisation during the postglacial period.     

Ancient DNA supports southern survival of Richardson's collared lemming (Dicrostonyx richardsoni) during the last glacial maximum

Collared lemmings (genus Dicrostonyx) are circumpolar Arctic arvicoline rodents associated with tundra. However, during the last glacial maximum (LGM), Dicrostonyx lived along the southern ice margin of the Laurentide ice sheet in communities comprising both temperate and boreal species. To better understand these communities and the fate of these southern individuals, we compare mitochondrial cytochrome b sequence data from three LGM‐age Dicrostonyx fossils from south of the Laurentide ice sheet to sequences from modern Dicrostonyx sampled from across their present‐day range. We test whether the Dicrostonyx populations from LGM‐age continental USA became extinct at the Pleistocene–Holocene transition ~11000 years ago or, alternatively, if they belong to an extant species whose habitat preferences can be used to infer the palaeoclimate along the glacial margin. Our results indicate that LGM‐age Dicrostonyx from Iowa and South Dakota belong to Dicrostonyx richardsoni, which currently lives in a temperate tundra environment west of Hudson Bay, Canada. This suggests a palaeoclimate south of the Laurentide ice sheet that contains elements similar to the more temperate shrub tundra characteristic of extant D. richardsoni habitat, rather than the very cold, dry tundra of the Northern Arctic. While more data are required to determine whether or not the LGM southern population is ancestral to extant D. richardsoni, it seems most probable that the species survived the LGM in a southern refugium.     

Late‐glacial recolonization and phylogeography of European red deer (Cervus elaphus L.)

The Pleistocene was an epoch of extreme climatic and environmental changes. How individual species responded to the repeated cycles of warm and cold stages is a major topic of debate. For the European fauna and flora, an expansion–contraction model has been suggested, whereby temperate species were restricted to southern refugia during glacial times and expanded northwards during interglacials, including the present interglacial (Holocene). Here, we test this model on the red deer (Cervus elaphus) a large and highly mobile herbivore, using both modern and ancient mitochondrial DNA from the entire European range of the species over the last c. 40 000 years. Our results indicate that this species was sensitive to the effects of climate change. Prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) haplogroups restricted today to South‐East Europe and Western Asia reached as far west as the UK. During the LGM, red deer was mainly restricted to southern refugia, in Iberia, the Balkans and possibly in Italy and South‐Western Asia. At the end of the LGM, red deer expanded from the Iberian refugium, to Central and Northern Europe, including the UK, Belgium, Scandinavia, Germany, Poland and Belarus. Ancient DNA data cannot rule out refugial survival of red deer in North‐West Europe through the LGM. Had such deer survived, though, they were replaced by deer migrating from Iberia at the end of the glacial. The Balkans served as a separate LGM refugium and were probably connected to Western Asia with genetic exchange between the two areas.     

Drastic post‐LGM expansion and lack of historical genetic structure of a subtropical fig‐pollinating wasp (Ceratosolen sp. 1) of Ficus septica in Taiwan

The climatic oscillations of the last glacial period have had profound influences on the demography and levels of genetic diversity of extant species. Molecular evidence of glacial effects on temperate species has been well documented, whereas little is known regarding that on subtropical species. Here we present analyses based on partial sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene (1052 bp) and genotypes at 15 microsatellite loci to investigate the historical demography, population structure and ongoing gene flow of an undescribed fig‐pollinating wasp (Ceratosolen sp. 1) of Ficus septica in subtropical Taiwan. Reconstructed historical demography based on the coalescent tree of COI sequences suggests that C. sp. 1 has undergone a drastic population expansion which was tightly coupled with climatic changes since the last glacial maximum (LGM). The magnitude of the population size change was approximately 500‐fold, indicating that the population of this wasp and its host was likely highly compressed during the last glacial period. The lack of significant population differentiation (F_ST < 0.02, for all pairwise F_ST values) may be due to rapid postglacial expansion facilitated by long‐distance dispersal, although a low frequency of first‐generation migrants was detected. Our results clearly demonstrate how recent climatic changes since the LGM and dispersal ability have jointly shaped the genetic composition of a subtropical fig‐pollinating wasp.     

Identification of glacial refugia in south-eastern North America by phylogeographical analyses of a forest understorey plant, Trillium cuneatum

Aim We examine several hypotheses emerging from biogeographical and fossil records regarding glacial refugia of a southern thermophilic plant species. Specifically, we investigated the glacial history and post‐glacial colonization of a forest understorey species, Trillium cuneatum. We focused on the following questions: (1) Did T. cuneatum survive the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in multiple refugia, and (if so) where were they located, and is the modern genetic structure congruent with the fossil record‐based reconstruction of refugia for mesic deciduous forests? (2) What are the post‐glacial colonization patterns in the present geographical range? Location South‐eastern North America. Methods We sampled 45 populations of T. cuneatum throughout its current range. We conducted phylogeographical analyses based on maternally inherited chloroplast DNA (cpDNA haplotypes) and used TCS software to reconstruct intraspecific phylogeny. Results We detected six cpDNA haplotypes, geographically highly structured into non‐overlapping areas. With one exception, none of the populations had mixed haplotype composition. TCS analysis resulted in two intraspecific cpDNA lineages, with one clade subdivided further by shallower diversification. Main conclusions Our investigation revealed that T. cuneatum survived the LGM in multiple refugia, belonging to two (western, eastern) genealogical lineages geographically structured across south‐eastern North America. The western clade is confined to the south‐western corner of T. cuneatum’s modern range along the Lower Mississippi Valley, where fossil records document a major refugium of mesic deciduous forest. For the eastern clade, modern patterns of cpDNA haplotype distribution suggest cryptic vicariance, in the form of forest contractions and subsequent expansions associated with Pleistocene glacial cycles, rather than simple southern survival and subsequent northward colonization. The north–south partitioning of cpDNA haplotypes was unexpected, suggesting that populations of this rather southern thermophilic species may have survived in more northern locations than initially expected based on LGM climate reconstruction, and that the Appalachian Mountains functioned as a barrier to the dispersal of propagules originating in more southern refugia. Furthermore, our results reveal south‐west to north‐east directionality in historical migration through the Valley and Ridge region of north‐west Georgia.     

Genetic and paleomodelling evidence of the population expansion of the cattle egret Bubulcus ibis in Africa during the climatic oscillations of the Late Pleistocene

Increasing aridity during glacial periods produced the retraction of forests and the expansion of arid and semi‐arid environments in Africa, with consequences for birds. Cattle egret Bubulcus ibis is a dispersive species that prefers semi‐arid environments and requires proximity to bodies of water. We expected that climatic oscillations led to the expansion of the range of the cattle egret during arid periods, such as the Last Maximum Glacial (LGM) and contraction of distribution during the Last Interglacial (LIG) period, resulting in contact of populations previously isolated. We investigated this hypothesis by evaluating the genetic structure and population history of 15 cattle egret breeding colonies located in west and South Africa using the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region, mtDNA ATPase 8 and 6, and an intron of nuclear gene transforming growth factor‐beta 2. Occurrence data and bioclimatic information were used to generate ecological niche models of three periods (present, LGM and LIG). We used the genetic and paleomodelling data to assess the responses of the cattle egret from Africa to the climatic oscillations during the late Pleistocene. Genetic data revealed low levels of genetic differentiation, signs of isolation‐by‐distance, as well as recent increases in effective population size that started during the LGM. The observed low genetic structure may be explained by recent colonization events due to the demographic expansion following the last glacial period and by dispersal capacity of this species. The paleomodels corroborated the expansion during the LGM, and a more restricted potential distribution during the LIG. Our findinds supports the hypothesis that the species range of the cattle egret expanded during arid periods and contracted during wet periods.     

Rethinking long‐term vegetation dynamics: multiple glacial refugia and local expansion of a species complex

Evidence is accumulating that some arcto‐boreal plant taxa persisted through the last glacial maximum (LGM) in Alaska and adjacent Canada. However, the spatial patterns of glacial persistence and associated postglacial colonization remain largely unknown. In this study, we investigated the LGM refugia of an alder (Alnus) species complex (n = 3 taxa) and assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of Alnus in this vast region. Specifically, we conducted high‐throughput DNA sequencing (ddRADseq) on Alnus foliar samples collected from a dense population network to investigate patterns of genetic structure and infer the presence of glacial lineages. Species distribution modeling (SDM) was used to investigate the probability and possible locations of glacial persistence. These analyses were integrated and then compared with fossil pollen data to identify the locations of refugial populations and spatial patterns of postglacial colonization. Our genetic analyses revealed two glacial lineages with separate geographic origins for each Alnus taxon, suggesting that the genus persisted in multiple LGM refugia. Non‐overlapping hindcast distributions based on SDMs further support the presence of multiple, spatially distinct refugia. These ddRADseq and SDM results, in conjunction with reassessment of fossil pollen records, suggest that Alnus expanded from several population nuclei that existed during the LGM and coalesced during the Holocene to form its present range. These results challenge the unidirectional model for postglacial vegetation expansion, implying that climate buffering associated with landscape heterogeneity and adaptation to millennial‐scale environmental variability played important roles in driving late‐Quaternary population dynamics.     

Using species-specific paleotemperature equations with foraminifera: a case study in the Southern California Bight

Species-specific paleotemperature equations were used to reconstruct a record of temperature from foraminiferal δ¹⁸O values over the last 25 kyr in the Southern California Bight. The equations yield similar temperatures for the δ¹⁸O values of Globigerina bulloides and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma. In contrast, applying a single paleotemperature equation to G. bulloides and N. pachyderma δ¹⁸O yields different temperatures, which has been used to suggest that these species record the surface-to-thermocline temperature gradient. In Santa Barbara Basin, an isotopically distinct morphotype of G. bulloides dominates during glacial intervals and yields temperatures that appear too cold when using a paleotemperature equation calibrated for the morphotype common today. When a more appropriate paleotemperature equation is used for glacial G. bulloides, we obtain more realistic glacial temperatures. Glacial–interglacial temperature differences (G–I ΔT) calculated in the present study indicate significant cooling (8–10°C) throughout the Southern California Bight during the last glacial maximum (LGM). The magnitude of glacial cooling varies from 8°C near the middle of the Southern California Bight (Tanner Basin and San Nicolas Basin) to 9°C in the north (Santa Barbara Basin) and 9.5–10°C in the south (Velero Basin and No Name Basin). Our temperature calculations agree well with previous estimates based on the modern analog technique. In contrast, studies using N. pachyderma coiling ratios, U^k′₃₇ indices, and transfer functions estimate considerably warmer LGM temperatures and smaller G–I ΔT.     

Simulated glacial and interglacial vegetation across Africa: implications for species phylogenies and trans-African migration of plants and animals

The paleoenvironmental context of plant and animal species evolution (including glacial migrations and population separations) is based on a very patchy and incomplete paleo‐phytogeographic record. It was our objective, therefore, to provide an additional source for paleovegetation comparison by presenting simulations from a state‐of‐the‐art fully coupled earth system model (HadCM3LC). We simulated potential paleovegetation distributions following pre‐Industrial and last glacial maximum (LGM) climate forcing for the continent of Africa. Our LGM simulations indicate that tropical broadleaf forest was not severely displaced by expanding grasslands within central Africa, although the outer extent of closed forest decreases, particularly in the north. Our simulations indicate that the structure of glacial forests may have been much different from today, in that LGM simulations indicate that forests were likely characterized by lower leaf area indexes, lower tree heights and lower vegetation carbon content. On the other hand, warmer interglacial climate (like our pre‐Industrial climate scenario) results in simulated expansion of tropical forest from coast to coast across central Africa that we postulate could have acted as a barrier to plant and animal species migrations. We suggest that our modeling experiments have implications for the interpretation of phylogenetic data, including that of our own species, Homo sapiens sapiens.     

Landscape connectivity of Cercidiphyllum japonicum,an endangered species and its implications for conservation

Cercidiphyllum japonicum, a Tertiary relict, recolonized areas north of the Yangtze River after the last glacial; however, little is known about its specific colonization corridors. Together with distribution models, the least cost path (LCP) analysis has been used to reveal the landscape connectivity of species. In this study, we utilized the categorical LCP method, combining the species distribution with genetic data from cpDNA and nuclear markers, to identify the possible dispersal routes of C. japonicum after the LGM. Across time periods and genetic markers, the results revealed that the species generally spread from the western edge of the Sichuan Basin, while the highest degree of dispersal potential corresponds with the year 2080 and the cpDNA haplotype. Furthermore, shifts in the species' range and the indication of an area of low genetic divergence further support the existence of a dispersal corridor. Overall, we believe that a dispersal route from the western edge of the Sichuan Basin through the Qinling Mountains and further to the northeast could exist, and therefore, the results are an important supplement to the evolutionary history of C. japonicum. In the future, we believe species distribution models (SDM) and connectivity assessment in relation to climate change will provide increasingly useful information and new implications for prioritizing the conservation of the endangered species.     

Palaeodistribution modelling and genetic evidence highlight differential post‐glacial range shifts of a rain forest conifer distributed across a latitudinal gradient

Aim We examine the range expansion/contraction dynamics during the last glacial cycle of the late‐successional tropical rain forest conifer Podocarpus elatus using a combination of modelling and molecular marker analyses. Specifically, we test whether distributional changes predicted by environmental niche modelling are in agreement with (1) the glacial maximum contractions inferred from the southern fossil record, and (2) population genetic‐based estimates of range disjunctions and demographic dynamics. In addition, we test whether northern and southern ranges are likely to have experienced similar expansion/contraction dynamics. Location Eastern Australian tropical and subtropical rain forests. Methods Environmental niche modelling was completed for three time periods during the last glacial cycle and was interpreted in light of the known palynology. We collected 109 samples from 32 populations across the entire range of P. elatus. Six microsatellite loci and Bayesian coalescence analysis were used to infer population expansion/contraction dynamics, and five sequenced loci (one plastid and four nuclear) were used to quantify genetic structure/diversity. Results Environmental niche modelling suggested that the northern and southern ranges of P. elatus experienced different expansion/contraction dynamics. In the northern range, the habitat suitable for P. elatus persisted in a small refugial area during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka) and then expanded during the post‐glacial period. Conversely, in the south suitable habitat was widespread during the LGM but subsequently contracted. These differential dynamics were supported by Bayesian analyses of the population genetic data (northern dispersal) and are consistent with the greater genetic diversity in the south compared with the north. A contact zone between the two genetically divergent groups (corresponding to the Macleay Overlap Zone) was supported by environmental niche modelling and molecular analyses. Main conclusions The climatic fluctuations of the Quaternary have differentially impacted the northern and southern ranges of a broadly distributed rain forest tree in Australia. Recurrent contraction/expansion cycles contributed to the genetic distinction between northern and southern distributions of P. elatus. By combining molecular and environmental niche modelling evidence, this unique study undermines the general assumption that broadly distributed species respond in a uniform way to climate change.     

Northern glacial refugia for the pygmy shrew Sorex minutus in Europe revealed by phylogeographic analyses and species distribution modelling

The southern European peninsulas (Iberian, Italian and Balkan) are traditionally recognized as glacial refugia from where many species colonized central and northern Europe after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). However, evidence that some species had more northerly refugia is accumulating from phylogeographic, palaeontological and palynological studies, and more recently from species distribution modelling (SDM), but further studies are needed to test the idea of northern refugia in Europe. Here, we take a rarely implemented multidisciplinary approach to assess if the pygmy shrew Sorex minutus, a widespread Eurasian mammal species, had northern refugia during the LGM, and if these influenced its postglacial geographic distribution. First, we evaluated the phylogeographic and population expansion patterns using mtDNA sequence data from 123 pygmy shrews. Then, we used SDM to predict present and past (LGM) potential distributions using two different training data sets, two different algorithms (Maxent and GARP) and climate reconstructions for the LGM with two different general circulation models. An LGM distribution in the southern peninsulas was predicted by the SDM approaches, in line with the occurrence of lineages of S. minutus in these areas. The phylogeographic analyses also indicated a widespread and strictly northern‐central European lineage, not derived from southern peninsulas, and with a postglacial population expansion signature. This was consistent with the SDM predictions of suitable LGM conditions for S. minutus occurring across central and eastern Europe, from unglaciated parts of the British Isles to much of the eastern European Plain. Hence, S. minutus likely persisted in parts of central and eastern Europe during the LGM, from where it colonized other northern areas during the late‐glacial and postglacial periods. Our results provide new insights into the glacial and postglacial colonization history of the European mammal fauna, notably supporting glacial refugia further north than traditionally recognized.     

Ice‐age persistence and genetic isolation of the disjunct distribution of larch in Alaska

Larix laricina (eastern larch, tamarack) is a transcontinental North American conifer with a prominent disjunction in the Yukon isolating the Alaskan distribution from the rest of its range. We investigate whether in situ persistence during the last glacial maximum (LGM) or long‐distance postglacial migration from south of the ice sheets resulted in the modern‐day Alaskan distribution. We analyzed variation in three chloroplast DNA regions of 840 trees from a total of 69 populations (24 new sampling sites situated on both sides of the Yukon range disjunction pooled with 45 populations from a published source) and conducted ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) throughout Canada and United States to hindcast the potential range of L. laricina during the LGM. We uncovered the genetic signature of a long‐term isolation of larch populations in Alaska, identifying three endemic chlorotypes and low levels of genetic diversity. Range‐wide analysis across North America revealed the presence of a distinct Alaskan lineage. Postglacial gene flow across the Yukon divide was unidirectional, from Alaska toward previously glaciated Canadian regions, and with no evidence of immigration into Alaska. Hindcast SDM indicates one of the broadest areas of past climate suitability for L. laricina existed in central Alaska, suggesting possible in situ persistence of larch in Alaska during the LGM. Our results provide the first unambiguous evidence for the long‐term isolation of L. laricina in Alaska that extends beyond the last glacial period and into the present interglacial period. The lack of gene flow into Alaska along with the overall probability of larch occurrence in Alaska being currently lower than during the LGM suggests that modern‐day Alaskan larch populations are isolated climate relicts of broader glacial distributions, and so are particularly vulnerable to current warming trends.     

The critical role of local refugia in postglacial colonization of Chinese pine: joint inferences from DNA analyses,pollen records,and species distribution modeling

The importance of long‐distance migration from low to high latitudes relative to local spread from northern refugia after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) remains a focus of debate for many temperate tree species. We assessed the dynamics of Chinese pine Pinus tabulaeformis, a widespread species endemic to northern China, since the LGM by integrating cytoplasmic DNA data, mapped pollen records and ecological niche modeling. Genetic variation among 544 individuals from 50 populations spanning the entire natural species range revealed eight genetic clusters with distinct geographic distribution, indicating glacial lineages likely originating from multiple local microrefugia. Palynological evidence suggested that the northernmost part of the natural distribution originated from local postglacial spread. Niche modeling indicated high probability of the species being present in the area of the Loess Plateau and coastal areas north of the Yangtze River during the LGM. The three lines of evidence jointly suggest that the species persisted through the last glaciation in the mountains surrounding the Loess Plateau of northern China and that the current distribution of the species originated primarily from the spread of local refugial populations, instead of long‐distance migration. These results cast doubt on the notion that Chinese pine migrated from areas south of the Yangtze River and underscore the importance of northern refugia.     

Investigating past range dynamics for a weed of cultivation,Silene vulgaris

Since the last glacial maximum (LGM), many plant and animal taxa have expanded their ranges by migration from glacial refugia. Weeds of cultivation may have followed this trend or spread globally following the expansion of agriculture or ruderal habitats associated with human‐mediated disturbance. We tested whether the range expansion of the weed Silene vulgaris across Europe fit the classical model of postglacial expansion from southern refugia, or followed known routes of the expansion of human agricultural practices. We used species distribution modeling to predict spatial patterns of postglacial expansion and contrasted these with the patterns of human agricultural expansion. A population genetic analysis using microsatellite loci was then used to test which scenario was better supported by spatial patterns of genetic diversity and structure. Genetic diversity was highest in southern Europe and declined with increasing latitude. Locations of ancestral demes from genetic cluster analysis were consistent with areas of predicted refugia. Species distribution models showed the most suitable habitat in the LGM on the southern coasts of Europe. These results support the typical postglacial northward colonization from southern refugia while refuting the east‐to‐west agricultural spread as the main mode of expansion for S. vulgaris. We know that S. vulgaris has recently colonized many regions (including North America and other continents) through human‐mediated dispersal, but there is no evidence for a direct link between the Neolithic expansion of agriculture and current patterns of genetic diversity of S. vulgaris in Europe. Therefore, the history of range expansion of S. vulgaris likely began with postglacial expansion after the LGM, followed by more recent global dispersal by humans.     

Too much of a good thing: sea ice extent may have forced emperor penguins into refugia during the last glacial maximum

The relationship between population structure and demographic history is critical to understanding microevolution and for predicting the resilience of species to environmental change. Using mitochondrial DNA from extant colonies and radiocarbon‐dated subfossils, we present the first microevolutionary analysis of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) and show their population trends throughout the last glacial maximum (LGM, 19.5–16 kya) and during the subsequent period of warming and sea ice retreat. We found evidence for three mitochondrial clades within emperor penguins, suggesting that they were isolated within three glacial refugia during the LGM. One of these clades has remained largely isolated within the Ross Sea, while the two other clades have intermixed around the coast of Antarctica from Adélie Land to the Weddell Sea. The differentiation of the Ross Sea population has been preserved despite rapid population growth and opportunities for migration. Low effective population sizes during the LGM, followed by a rapid expansion around the beginning of the Holocene, suggest that an optimum set of sea ice conditions exist for emperor penguins, corresponding to available foraging area.     

River islands,refugia and genetic structuring in the endemic brown frog Rana kukunoris (Anura,Ranidae) of the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau

Frequently, Pleistocene climatic cycling has been found to be the diver of genetic structuring in populations, even in areas that did not have continental ice sheets, such as on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Typically, species distributed on the plateau have been hypothesized to re‐treat to south‐eastern refugia, especially during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We evaluated sequence variation in the mitochondrial DNA gene Cytb and the nuclear DNA gene RAG‐1 in Rana kukunoris, a species endemic to the QTP. Two major lineages, N and S, were identified, and lineage N was further subdivided into N1 and N2. The geographical distribution and genealogical divergences supported the hypothesis of multiple refugia. However, major lineages and sublineages diverged prior to the LGM. Demographical expansion was detected only in lineage S and sublineage N2. Sublineage N1 might have survived several glacial cycles in situ and did not expand after the LGM because of the absence of suitable habitat; it survived in river islands. Genetic analysis and environment modelling suggested that the north‐eastern edge of QTP contained a major refugium for R. kukunoris. From here, lineage S dispersed southwards after the LGM. Two microrefugia in northern Qilian Mountains greatly contributed to current level of intraspecific genetic diversity. These results were found to have important implications for the habitat conservation in Northwest China.