Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos

During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions – niches – to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos, a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post‐LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change.     

Postglacial colonization of Europe by the barbastelle bat: agreement between molecular data and past predictive modelling

The barbastelle (Barbastella barbastellus) is a rare forest bat with a wide distribution in Europe. Here, we combine results from the analysis of two mtDNA fragments with species distribution modelling to determine glacial refugia and postglacial colonization routes. We also investigated whether niche conservatism occurs in this species. Glacial refugia were identified in the three southern European peninsulas: Iberia, Italy and the Balkans. These latter two refugia played a major role in the postglacial colonization process, with their populations expanding to England and central Europe, respectively. Palaeo‐distribution models predicted that suitable climatic conditions existed in the inferred refugia during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Nevertheless, the overlap between the current and the LGM distributions was almost inexistent in Italy and in the Balkans, meaning that B. barbastellus populations were forced to shift range between glacial and interglacial periods, a process that probably caused some local extinctions. In contrast, Iberian populations showed a ‘refugia within refugium’ pattern, with two unconnected areas containing stable populations (populations that subsisted during both glacial and interglacial phases). Moreover, the match between LGM models and the refugial areas determined by molecular analysis supported the hypothesis of niche conservatism in B. barbastellus. We argue that geographic patterns of genetic structuring, altogether with the modelling results, indicate the existence of four management units for conservation: Morocco, Iberia, Italy and UK, and Balkans and central Europe. In addition, all countries sampled possessed unique gene pools, thus stressing the need for the conservation of local populations.     

Inferring the past to predict the future: climate modelling predictions and phylogeography for the freshwater gastropod Radix balthica (Pulmonata, Basommatophora)

Understanding the impact of past climatic events on species may facilitate predictions of how species will respond to future climate change. To this end, we sampled populations of the common pond snail Radix balthica over the entire species range (northwestern Europe). Using a recently developed analytical framework that employs ecological niche modelling to obtain hypotheses that are subsequently tested with statistical phylogeography, we inferred the range dynamics of R. balthica over time. A Maxent modelling for present-day conditions was performed to infer the climate envelope for the species, and the modelled niche was used to hindcast climatically suitable range at the last glacial maximum (LGM) c . 21 000 years ago. Ecological niche modelling predicted two suitable areas at the LGM within the present species range. Phylogeographic model selection on a COI mitochondrial DNA data set confirmed that R. balthica most likely spread from these two disjunct refuges after the LGM. The match observed between the potential range of the species at the LGM given its present climatic requirements and the phylogeographically inferred refugial areas was a clear argument in favour of niche conservatism in R. balthica , thus allowing to predict the future range. The subsequent projection of the potential range under a global change scenario predicts a moderate pole-ward shift of the northern range limits, but a dramatic loss of areas currently occupied in France, western Great Britain and southern Germany.     

Evolutionary history of the scorpionfly Dicerapanorpa magna (Mecoptera,Panorpidae)

Climate changes can have fundamental impacts on the distributional patterns of montane species, and range shifts frequently lead to allopatric divergence followed by the establishment of secondary contact zones. Many European and North American organisms have retreated to southern refugia during glacial periods and colonized northward during postglacial periods, but little is known about the evolutionary response of cold‐adapted insects to Pleistocene climate changes in eastern Asia. The scorpionfly Dicerapanorpa magna (Chou), with cold temperate habitat preference and weak dispersal ability, provides a good model system to explore how climate changes have influenced the distribution and divergence of cold‐adapted insects in eastern Asia. This study reconstructed the demographic dynamics and evolutionary history of D. magna with phylogeographic approaches, and predicted the species’ suitable areas under the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and current scenarios with the ecological niche modelling analysis. The mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I resolved three phylogenetic lineages in D. magna dating back to Pleistocene, corresponding well with the geographically isolated Qinling, Bashan and Minshan Mountains. The ecological niche modelling recovered the suitable habitats for D. magna were the Qinling and Bashan Mountains under LGM and current conditions. The three lineages of D. magna might be in a process of incipient speciation, and likely derived their current distribution from separate glacial origins, followed by vicariance and divergence.     

A complex pattern of post‐divergence expansion,contraction, introgression,and asynchronous responses to Pleistocene climate changes in two Dipelta sister species from western China

The well‐known vicariance and dispersal models dominate in understanding the allopatric pattern for related species and presume the simultaneous occurrence of speciation and biogeographic events. However, the formation of allopatry could postdate the species divergence. We examined this hypothesis using DNA sequence data from three chloroplast fragments and five nuclear loci of Dipelta floribunda Maxim. and D. yunnanensis Franch, two shrub species with the circum Sichuan Basin distribution, combining the climatic niche modeling approach. The best‐fit model supported by the approximate Bayesian computation analysis indicated that D. floribunda and D. yunnanensis diverged during the mid‐Pleistocene period, consistent with the largest glacial period in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The historically interspecific gene flow was identified, but seemed to have ceased after the last interglacial period, when the range of D. floribunda moved northward from the south of the Sichuan Basin. Furthermore, populations of D. floribunda had expanded obviously in the north of the Sichuan Basin after the last glacial maximum (LGM). Relatively, the range of D. yunnanensis expanded before the LGM, and reduced during the post‐LGM especially in the north of the Sichuan Basin, reflecting the asynchronous responses of related species to contemporary climate changes. Our results suggested that complex topography should be considered in understanding distributional patterns, even for closely related species and their demographic responses.     

The integration of multiple independent data reveals an unusual response to Pleistocene climatic changes in the hard tick Ixodes ricinus

In the last few years, improved analytical tools and the integration of genetic data with multiple sources of information have shown that temperate species exhibited more complex responses to ice ages than previously thought. In this study, we investigated how Pleistocene climatic changes affected the current distribution and genetic diversity of European populations of the tick Ixodes ricinus, an ectoparasite with high ecological plasticity. We first used mitochondrial and nuclear genetic markers to investigate the phylogeographic structure of the species and its Pleistocene history using coalescent‐based methods; then we used species distribution modelling to infer the climatic niche of the species at last glacial maximum; finally, we reviewed the literature on the I. ricinus hosts to identify the locations of their glacial refugia. Our results support the scenario that during the last glacial phase, I. ricinus never experienced a prolonged allopatric divergence in separate glacial refugia, but persisted with interconnected populations across Southern and Central Europe. The generalist behaviour in host choice of I. ricinus would have played a major role in maintaining connections between its populations. Although most of the hosts persisted in separate refugia, from the point of view of I. ricinus, they represented a continuity of ‘bridges’ among populations. Our study highlights the importance of species‐specific ecology in affecting responses to Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles. Together with other cases in Europe and elsewhere, it contributes to setting new hypotheses on how species with wide ecological plasticity coped with Pleistocene climatic changes.     

How did the exposed seafloor function in postglacial northward range expansion of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Kalopanax septemlobus</Emphasis>? Evidence from ecological niche modelling

We attempted to clarify how coastal lands temporarily exposed during the last glacial maximum (LGM) contributed to the northward colonisation of Kalopanax septemlobus (Thunb. ex Murray) Koidzumi during the postglacial period in the Japanese Archipelago. Distribution records in 30-arc-s pixels were related to bioclimate variables using the maximum entropy technique to model the ecological niche of this species. Bioclimatic conditions in the exposed coastal lands during the LGM were reconstructed based on simulated palaeoclimate and fine-resolution marine topography. Potential distribution ranges were then estimated under the climatic conditions during the LGM, mid-Holocene and the present. The ecological niche of this species was influenced mainly by the temperature component of the bioclimates, leading to northward range shift after the LGM as the climate warmed. On average, 26% of the potential range of K. septemlobus during the LGM was located on the exposed seafloor. The northern edges of the species range on both sides of Honshu Island were estimated by up to several hundred kilometres farther north, when compared to the prediction assuming no sea level change. Application of ecological niche modelling provided new insight into the role of exposed seafloor as cryptic glacial refugia for this species, which has never been evidenced by fossil records. In a temperate island system characterised by long coastlines, the northern exposed seafloor would have been more important in terms of harbouring the putative source populations for northward directional colonisation during the postglacial period.     

Refugia,colonization and diversification of an arid‐adapted bird: coincident patterns between genetic data and ecological niche modelling

Phylogeographical studies are common in boreal and temperate species from the Palaearctic, but scarce in arid‐adapted species. We used nuclear and mitochondrial markers to investigate phylogeography and to estimate chronology of colonization events of the trumpeter finch Bucanetes githagineus, an arid‐adapted bird. We used 271 samples from 16 populations, most of which were fresh samples but including some museum specimens. Microsatellite data showed no clear grouping according to the sampling locations. Microsatellite and mitochondrial data showed the clearest differentiation between Maghreb and Canary Islands and between Maghreb and Western Sahara. Mitochondrial data suggest differentiation between different Maghreb populations and among Maghreb and Near East populations, between Iberian Peninsula and Canary Islands, as well as between Western Sahara and Maghreb. Our coalescence analyses indicate that the trumpeter finch colonized North Africa during the humid Marine Isotope Stage 5 (MIS5) period of the Sahara region 125 000 years ago. We constructed an ecological niche model (ENM) to estimate the geographical distribution of climatically suitable habitats for the trumpeter finch. We tested whether changes in the species range in relation to glacial–interglacial cycles could be responsible for observed patterns of genetic diversity and structure. Modelling results matched with those from genetic data as the species' potential range increases in interglacial scenarios (in the present climatic scenario and during MIS5) and decreases in glacial climates (during the last glacial maximum, LGM, 21 000 years ago). Our results suggest that the trumpeter finch responded to Pleistocene climatic changes by expanding and contracting its range.     

Climate-driven range dynamics of the freshwater limpet, Ancylus fluviatilis (Pulmonata, Basommatophora)

Aim Our aim was to understand the processes that have shaped the present‐day distribution of the freshwater limpet Ancylus fluviatilis sensu stricto in order to predict the consequences of global climate change for the geographical range of this species. Location North‐western Europe. Methods We sampled populations of A. fluviatilis sensu stricto over the entire range of the species (north‐western Europe) and sequenced 16S ribosomal RNA (16S) and cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) mitochondrial fragments to perform phylogenetic and phylogeographical analyses. Climatic niche modelling allowed us to infer the climatic preferences of the species. A principal components analysis identified the most important climatic factors explaining the actual range of A. fluviatilis. We also identified which climatic factor was the most limiting at range margins, and predicted the species’ geographical range under a climate change scenario [Community Climate Model 3 (CCM3)]. Results By means of the phylogeographical analysis, we infer that A. fluviatilis sensu stricto occupied northern refuges during the Last Glacial Maximum. We show that the climatic preferences of Baltic populations are significantly different from those of Central European populations. The projection of the occupied area under the CCM3 climate model predicts a moderate poleward shift of the northern range limits, but a dramatic loss of areas currently occupied, for instance in northern Germany and in southern Great Britain. Main conclusions The post‐glacial range dynamics of A. fluviatilis are not governed by niche conservatism. Therefore, we must be cautious about bioclimatic model predictions: the expected impact of climate change could be tempered by the adaptive potential this species has already shown in its evolutionary history. Thus, modelling approaches should rather be seen as conservative forecasts of altered species ranges as long as the adaptive potential of the organisms in question cannot be predicted.     

Phylogeography and paleodistribution models of a widespread birch (Betula platyphylla Suk.) across East Asia: Multiple refugia,multidirectional expansion,and heterogeneous genetic pattern

Widespread tree species cover large geographical areas and play important roles in various vegetation types. Understanding how these species responded to historical climatic changes is important for understanding community assembly mechanisms with evolutionary and conservation implications. However, the location of refugial areas and postglacial history of widespread trees in East Asia remain poorly known. We combined microsatellite data (63 populations, 1756 individuals) and ecological niche modeling to examine the range‐wide population diversity, genetic structure, and historical demography of a pioneer tree species, Asian white birch (Betula platyphylla Suk.) across East Asia. We found a north‐to‐south trend of declining genetic diversity and five clusters, corresponding to geographical regions. Different clusters were inferred to have diverged through Pleistocene climatic oscillations and have different expansion routes, leading to genetic admixture in some populations. Ecological niche models indicated that the distribution of B. platyphylla during the last glacial maximum still had a large latitude span with slight shifts toward southeast, and northern populations had more variable distribution ranges than those in the south during later climatic oscillations. Our results reflect the relatively stable distribution through the last glacial–interglacial cycles and recent multidirectional expansion of B. platyphylla, providing new hypotheses for the response pattern of widespread tree species to climate change. The gradual genetic pattern from northeast to southwest and alternative distribution dynamics possibly resulted from environmental differences caused by latitude and topographic heterogeneity.     

Uncommon paleodistribution patterns of Chrysolophus pheasants in east Asia: explanations and implications

Some modeling studies indicated that the past distributions of species in east Asia during the Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) periods differ from those of European and North American species and the deviant Asian distribution pattern is known under the term ‘pre‐LGM expansion’. It represents the unusually similar distribution patterns between the current and the LGM scenario. However, there is still no satisfying explanation for this phenomenon so far. Therefore, we took the two recently separated pheasant species of genus Chrysolophus in east Asia as an example to test the pattern by performing ecological niche models. The main findings of this study include: 1) the paleodistributions of these two pheasants also corresponded to the ‘pre‐LGM expansion’ pattern; 2) climatic similarity results from mobility‐oriented parity analysis also revealed similar pattern for both species; 3) climate regimes of east Asia showed patterns different from those in Europe and North America in a climate shift towards drier conditions and stronger seasonality and to more extreme temperatures of the coldest months particularly during the LIG; 4) the two Chrysolophus species occupied significantly different ecological niches according to current distribution. We suggest that ecological segregation established in allopatric glacial refugia should be the main determinants for the separation of two Chrysolophus species until they came into extant post‐Pleistocene contact.     

Multiple glacial refugia for cool‐temperate deciduous trees in northern East Asia: the Mongolian oak as a case study

In East Asia, temperate forests are predicted to have retracted southward to c. 30° N during the last glacial maximum (LGM) based on fossil pollen data, whereas phylogeographic studies have often suggested glacial in situ survival of cool‐temperate deciduous trees in their modern northern ranges. Here we report a study of the genetic diversity and structure of 29 natural Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) populations using 19 nuclear simple sequence repeat (nSSR) loci and four chloroplast DNA fragments. Bayesian clustering analysis with nSSRs revealed five groups, which were inferred by approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to have diverged in multiple refugia through multiple glacial–interglacial cycles. Analysis of chloroplast DNA variation revealed four lineages that were largely but incompletely geographically disjunct. Ecological niche modelling (ENMs) indicated a southward range shift of the oak's distribution at the LGM, although high suitability scores were also evident in the Changbai Mts. (Northeast China), the Korean Peninsula, areas surrounding the Bohai Sea, and along the coast of the Russian Far East. In addition, endemic chloroplast DNA haplotypes and nuclear lineages occurred in high‐latitude northern areas where the ENM predicted no suitable habitat. The combined evidence from nuclear and chloroplast DNA, and the results of the ENM clearly demonstrate that multiple northern refugia, including cryptic ones, were maintained across the current distributional range of the Mongolian oak during the LGM or earlier glacial periods. Though spatially limited, postglacial expansions from these refugia have led to a pattern of decreased genetic diversity with increasing latitude.     

Niche evolution and thermal adaptation in the temperate species Drosophila americana

The study of ecological niche evolution is fundamental for understanding how the environment influences species' geographical distributions and their adaptation to divergent environments. Here, we present a study of the ecological niche, demographic history and thermal performance (locomotor activity, developmental time and fertility/viability) of the temperate species Drosophila americana and its two chromosomal forms. Temperature is the environmental factor that contributes most to the species' and chromosomal forms' ecological niches, although precipitation is also important in the model of the southern populations. The past distribution model of the species predicts a drastic reduction in the suitable area for the distribution of the species during the last glacial maximum (LGM), suggesting a strong bottleneck. However, DNA analyses did not detect a bottleneck signature during the LGM. These contrasting results could indicate that D. americana niche preference evolves with environmental change, and thus, there is no evidence to support niche conservatism in this species. Thermal performance experiments show no difference in the locomotor activity across a temperature range of 15 to 38 °C between flies from the north and the south of its distribution. However, we found significant differences in developmental time and fertility/viability between the two chromosomal forms at the model's optimal temperatures for the two forms. However, results do not indicate that they perform better for the traits studied here in their respective optimal niche temperatures. This suggests that behaviour plays an important role in thermoregulation, supporting the capacity of this species to adapt to different climatic conditions across its latitudinal distribution.     

The effects of the Late Quaternary glacial–interglacial cycles on Anatolian ground squirrels: range expansion during the glacial periods?

The present study aimed to understand how Anatolian ground squirrels, Spermophilus xanthoprymnus (Bennett, 1835), have responded to global climate changes through the Late Quaternary glacial–interglacial cycles. Accordingly, ecological niche modelling was used, together with molecular phylogeography. Using species occurrence data compiled from field observations and relevant sources and the maximum entropy machine learning algorithm in MAXENT, an ecological niche model was developed to predict the potential geographical distribution of S. xanthoprymnus under reconstructed past (the Last Interglacial, approximately 130 000–116 000 years ago and the Last Glacial Maximum, 21 000 years ago) and present (1950–2000) bioclimatic conditions. In addition, using cytochrome b mitochondrial DNA sequences deposited in GenBank and the Bayesian skyline plot in BEAST, demographic events (population fluctuations) were further assessed over the history of Anatolian ground squirrels. Combined ecological niche modelling and molecular phylogeography revealed that S. xanthoprymnus, itself also a temperate (mid‐latitude) species, has responded to global climate changes through the Late Quaternary glacial–interglacial cycles in a fashion converse to that of most temperate (mid‐latitude) species: its range expanded rather than contracted during the glacial periods and contracted rather than expanded during the interglacial periods. In other words, Anatolian ground squirrels have been in refugia during the interglacial periods, suggesting that the classical paradigm of glacial range contraction and interglacial range expansion for temperate species may not be as general as previously assumed. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2013, 109 , 19–32.     

Patterns of Diversity,Areas of Endemism,and Multiple Glacial Refuges for Freshwater Crabs of the Genus Sinopotamon in China (Decapoda: Brachyura: Potamidae)

Previous research has shown that the geographical distribution patterns of freshwater fishes and amphibians have been influenced by past climatic oscillations in China resulting from Pleistocene glacial activity. However, it remains unknown how these past changes have impacted the present-day distribution of Chinese freshwater crabs. This work describes the diversity and endemism of freshwater crabs belonging to Sinopotamon, a highly speciose genus endemic to China, and evaluates its distribution in terms of topography and past climatic fluctuations. Species diversity within Sinopotamon was found to be concentrated in an area from the northeastern edge of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau to the Jiangnan Hills, and three areas of endemism were identified. Multiple regression analysis between current climatic variables and Sinopotamon diversity suggested that regional annual precipitation, minimum temperature in the coldest month, and annual temperature range significantly influenced species diversity and may explain the diversity patterns of Sinopotamon. A comparison of ecological niche models (ENMs) between current conditions and the last glacial maximum (LGM) showed that suitable habitat for Sinopotamon in China severely contracted during the LGM. The coincidence of ENMs and the areas of endemism indicated that southeast of the Daba Mountains, and central and southeastern China, are potential Pleistocene refuges for Sinopotamon. The presence of multiple Pleistocene refuges within the range of this genus could further promote inter- and intraspecific differentiations, and may have led to high Sinopotamon species diversity, a high endemism rate and widespread distribution.     

Mitochondrial DNA variation and Quaternary range dynamics in the endangered Yellow Spotted Mountain Newt,Neurergus derjugini (Caudata,Salamandridae)

In temperate regions of the Earth Pleistocene, climatic fluctuations significantly influenced distribution of species. However, little is known on how glacial and interglacial cycles affected range dynamics of the species occupying lower latitudes. In this study, we investigated mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation and reconstructed the potential current and past (during the mid‐Holocene, 6 ka BP, and the Last Glacial Maximum, LGM, 21 ka BP) distribution of Neurergus derjugini, an endangered amphibian species endemic to the mid‐Zagros Mountains in Iran and Iraq. Six haplotypes identified in the control region (D‐loop) form a well‐supported monophyletic clade, distinct from other Neurergus species and revealing a sister relationship to Neurergus kaiseri. Nucleotide diversity quantifying mean divergence between the sequences is low and does not support the recognition of distinct evolutionary lineages in Neurergus derjugini. The landscape connectivity analysis and the haplotype parsimony network reveal higher gene flow rate between the breeding streams in the southern part of the range, while the northern populations are more isolated. The potential distribution of Neurergus derjugini is restricted to valleys close to mountain tops, wherein very high elevations and dry habitats appear to be unsuitable. During the mid‐Holocene and LGM conditions, the range of the species may have been more extended and shifted to lower elevations. These findings show retraction of the Neurergus derjugini range during the Quaternary and indicate that range dynamics of the species occupying lower latitudes may not follow a scenario of glacial retraction and postglacial expansion.     

Influence of late Quaternary climate change on present patterns of genetic variation in valley oak,Quercus lobata Née

Phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs) suggest that late Quaternary glacial cycles have played a prominent role in shaping present population genetic structure and diversity, but have not applied quantitative methods to dissect the relative contribution of past and present climate vs. other forces. We integrate multilocus phylogeography, climate‐based ENMs and multivariate statistical approaches to infer the effects of late Quaternary climate change on contemporary genetic variation of valley oak (Quercus lobata Née). ENMs indicated that valley oak maintained a stable distribution with local migration from the last interglacial period (~120 ka) to the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka, LGM) to the present compared with large‐scale range shifts for an eastern North American white oak (Quercus alba L.). Coast Range and Sierra Nevada foothill populations diverged in the late Pleistocene before the LGM [104 ka (28–1622)] and have occupied somewhat distinct climate niches, according to ENMs and coalescent analyses of divergence time. In accordance with neutral expectations for stable populations, nuclear microsatellite diversity positively correlated with niche stability from the LGM to present. Most strikingly, nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite variation significantly correlated with LGM climate, even after controlling for associations with geographic location and present climate using partial redundancy analyses. Variance partitioning showed that LGM climate uniquely explains a similar proportion of genetic variance as present climate (16% vs. 11–18%), and together, past and present climate explains more than geography (19%). Climate can influence local expansion–contraction dynamics, flowering phenology and thus gene flow, and/or impose selective pressures. These results highlight the lingering effect of past climate on genetic variation in species with stable distributions.     

Late‐glacial recolonization and phylogeography of European red deer (Cervus elaphus L.)

The Pleistocene was an epoch of extreme climatic and environmental changes. How individual species responded to the repeated cycles of warm and cold stages is a major topic of debate. For the European fauna and flora, an expansion–contraction model has been suggested, whereby temperate species were restricted to southern refugia during glacial times and expanded northwards during interglacials, including the present interglacial (Holocene). Here, we test this model on the red deer (Cervus elaphus) a large and highly mobile herbivore, using both modern and ancient mitochondrial DNA from the entire European range of the species over the last c. 40 000 years. Our results indicate that this species was sensitive to the effects of climate change. Prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) haplogroups restricted today to South‐East Europe and Western Asia reached as far west as the UK. During the LGM, red deer was mainly restricted to southern refugia, in Iberia, the Balkans and possibly in Italy and South‐Western Asia. At the end of the LGM, red deer expanded from the Iberian refugium, to Central and Northern Europe, including the UK, Belgium, Scandinavia, Germany, Poland and Belarus. Ancient DNA data cannot rule out refugial survival of red deer in North‐West Europe through the LGM. Had such deer survived, though, they were replaced by deer migrating from Iberia at the end of the glacial. The Balkans served as a separate LGM refugium and were probably connected to Western Asia with genetic exchange between the two areas.     

Phylogeographic and demographic effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations in a montane salamander, Plethodon fourchensis

Climatic changes associated with Pleistocene glacial cycles profoundly affected species distributions, patterns of interpopulation gene flow, and demography. In species restricted to montane habitats, ranges may expand and contract along an elevational gradients in response to environmental fluctuations and create high levels of genetic variation among populations on different mountains. The salamander Plethodon fourchensis is restricted to high-elevation, mesic forest on five montane isolates in the Ouachita Mountains. We used DNA sequence data along with ecological niche modelling and coalescent simulations to test several hypotheses related to the effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations on species in montane habitats. Our results revealed that P. fourchensis is composed of four well-supported, geographically structured lineages. Geographic breaks between lineages occurred in the vicinity of major valleys and a narrow high-elevation pass. Ecological niche modelling predicted that environmental conditions in valleys separating most mountains are suitable; however, interglacial periods like the present are predicted to be times of range expansion in P. fourchensis . Divergence dating and coalescent simulations indicated that lineage diversification occurred during the Middle Pleistocene via the fragmentation of a wide-ranging ancestor. Bayesian skyline plots showed gradual decreases in population size in three of four lineages over the most recent glacial period and a slight to moderate amount of population growth during the Holocene. Our results not only demonstrate that climatic changes during the Pleistocene had profound effects on species restricted to montane habitats, but comparison of our results for P. fourchensis with its parapatric, sister taxon, P. ouachitae , also emphasizes how responses can vary substantially even among closely related, similarly distributed taxa.