A High Dietary Glycemic Index Increases Total Mortality in a Mediterranean Population at High Cardiovascular Risk

Objective

Different types of carbohydrates have diverse glycemic response, thus glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) are used to assess this variation. The impact of dietary GI and GL in all-cause mortality is unknown. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between dietary GI and GL and risk of all-cause mortality in the PREDIMED study.

Material and Methods

The PREDIMED study is a randomized nutritional intervention trial for primary cardiovascular prevention based on community-dwelling men and women at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Dietary information was collected at baseline and yearly using a validated 137-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). We assigned GI values of each item by a 5-step methodology, using the International Tables of GI and GL Values. Deaths were ascertained through contact with families and general practitioners, review of medical records and consultation of the National Death Index. Cox regression models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% CI for mortality, according to quartiles of energy-adjusted dietary GI/GL. To assess repeated measures of exposure, we updated GI and GL intakes from the yearly FFQs and used Cox models with time-dependent exposures.

Results

We followed 3,583 non-diabetic subjects (4.7 years of follow-up, 123 deaths). As compared to participants in the lowest quartile of baseline dietary GI, those in the highest quartile showed an increased risk of all-cause mortality [HR = 2.15 (95% CI: 1.15–4.04); P for trend  = 0.012]. In the repeated-measures analyses using as exposure the yearly updated information on GI, we observed a similar association. Dietary GL was associated with all-cause mortality only when subjects were younger than 75 years.

Conclusions

High dietary GI was positively associated with all-cause mortality in elderly population at high cardiovascular risk.     

Gender-specific associations of marine n-3 fatty acids and fish consumption with 10-year incidence of stroke

Background

There is some evidence that the association of fish and marine fatty acids with stroke risk differs between men and women. We investigated the gender-specific associations of habitual intake of the marine fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) plus docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and fish on incident stroke in a population-based study in the Netherlands.

Methods

We prospectively followed 20,069 men and women, aged 20–65 years, without cardiovascular diseases at baseline. Habitual diet was assessed with a validated 178-item food frequency questionnaire. Incidence of stroke was assessed through linkage with mortality and morbidity registers. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI).

Results

During 8–13 years of follow-up, 221 strokes occurred. In women, an inverse dose-response relation (P-trend = 0.02) was observed between EPA-DHA intake and incident stroke, with an HR of 0.49 (95% CI: 0.27–0.91) in the top quartile of EPA-DHA (median 225 mg/d) as compared to the bottom quartile (median 36 mg/d). In men, the HR (95%CI) for the top quartile of EPA-DHA intake was 0.87 (0.51–1.48) (P-trend = 0.36). Similar results were observed for fish consumption and stroke incidence.

Conclusion

A higher EPA-DHA and fish intake is related to a lower stroke risk in women, while for men an inverse association could not be demonstrated.     

Is Obstructive Sleep Apnea Associated with Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality?

Background

Studies have reported inconsistent findings regarding the association between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and future risks of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate whether OSA is an independent predictor for future cardiovascular and all-cause mortality using prospective observational studies.

Methods

Electronic literature databases (Medline and Embase) were searched for prospective observational studies published prior to December 2012. Only observational studies that assessed baseline OSA and future risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality were selected. Pooled hazard risk (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for categorical risk estimates. Subgroup analyses were based on the severity of OSA.

Results

Six studies with 11932 patients were identified and analyzed, with 239 reporting cardiovascular mortality, and 1397 all-cause mortality. Pooled HR of all-cause mortality was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.41) for moderate OSA and 1.90 (95% CI, 1.29 to 2.81) for severe OSA. Pooled HR of cardiovascular mortality was 1.40 (95% CI, 0.77 to 2.53) for moderate OSA and 2.65 (95% CI, 1.82 to 3.85) for severe OSA. There were no differences in cardiovascular mortality in continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment compared with healthy subjects (HR 0.82; 95% CI, 0.50 to 1.33).

Conclusions

Severe OSA is a strong independent predictor for future cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. CPAP treatment was associated with decrease cardiovascular mortality.     

Sagittal Abdominal Diameter Is an Independent Predictor of All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

Backgrounds and Aims

Visceral fat has a crucial role in the development and progression of cardiovascular disease, the major cause of death in end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Although sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD), as an index of visceral fat, significantly correlated with mortality in the general population, the impact of SAD on clinical outcomes has never been explored in ESRD patients. Therefore, we sought to elucidate the prognostic value of SAD in incident peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients.

Methods

We prospectively determined SAD by lateral abdominal X-ray at PD initiation, and evaluated the association of SAD with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in 418 incident PD patients.

Results

The mean SAD was 24.5±4.3 cm, and during a mean follow-up of 39.4 months, 97 patients (23.2%) died, and 49.4% of them died due to cardiovascular disease. SAD was a significant independent predictor of all-cause [3rd versus 1st tertile, HR (hazard ratio): 3.333, 95% CI (confidence interval): 1.514–7.388, P = 0.01; per 1 cm increase, HR: 1.071, 95% CI: 1.005–1.141, P = 0.03] and cardiovascular mortality (3rd versus 1st tertile, HR: 8.021, 95% CI: 1.994–32.273, P = 0.01; per 1 cm increase, HR: 1.106, 95% CI: 1.007–1.214, P = 0.03). Multivariate fractional polynomial analysis also showed that all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk increased steadily with higher SAD values. In addition, SAD provided higher predictive value for all-cause (AUC: 0.691 vs. 0.547, P<0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (AUC: 0.644 vs. 0.483, P<0.001) than body mass index (BMI). Subgroup analysis revealed higher SAD (≥24.2 cm) was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in men, women, younger patients (<65 years), and patients with lower BMI (<22.3 kg/m²).

Conclusions

SAD determined by lateral abdominal X-ray at PD initiation was a significant independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in incident PD patients. Estimating visceral fat by SAD could be useful to stratify mortality risk in these patients.     

Resting Heart Rate and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases and All-Cause Death: The Kailuan Study

Background

Resting heart rate (RHR) predicts both cardiovascular and noncardiovascular death in different populations. However, the results of the association between RHR and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are inconsistent, especially for each subtype of CVDs.

Objective

The aim of this study was to prospectively explore the relationship between RHR and CVDs including myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke and all-cause death in a general population.

Methods

The Kailuan study is a prospective longitudinal cohort study on cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular or cerebrovascular events. Hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using Cox regression modeling.

Results

We analyzed 92,562 participants (18–98 years old) in the Kailuan Study. CVDs were developed in 1,903 people during follow-ups. In multivariate analysis with adjustment for major traditional cardiovascular risk factors, HRs of the highest quintile group compared with the lowest quintile group of RHR for all-cause CVDs, MI, any stroke, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and all-cause death were 1.03 (95% CI, 0.98–1.07), 1.10 (95% CI, 1.01–1.20), 1.01 (95% CI, 0.97–1.06), 1.02 (95% CI, 0.96–1.07), 1.01 (95% CI, 0.92–1.11) and 1.18, (95% CI, 1.13–1.23), respectively.

Conclusions

The elevated RHR was independently associated with the increased risk for MI and all-cause death, but not for all-cause CVDs, any stroke, ischemic stroke, nor hemorrhagic stroke. This indicates that the elevated RHR might be a risk marker for MI and all-cause death in general populations.     

All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality after Long-Term Sickness Absence for Psychiatric Disorders: A Prospective Cohort Study

Objective

The aim was to examine if long-term psychiatric sickness absence was associated with all-cause and diagnosis-specific (cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer and suicide) mortality for the period 1990–2007. An additional aim was to examine these associations for psychiatric sickness absence in 1990 and 2000, with follow-up on mortality during 1991–1997 and 2001–2007, separately.

Methods

Employees within municipalities and county councils, 244,990 individuals in 1990 and 764,137 individuals in 2000, were followed up to 2007 through register linkages. Analyses were conducted with flexible parametric survival models comparing sickness absentees due to psychiatric diagnoses (>90 days) with those not receiving sick leave benefit.

Results

Long-term sickness absence for psychiatric disorders was associated with an increased risk of mortality due to all causes; CVD; cancer (smoking and non-smoking related); and suicide during the period 1990–2007. After full adjustment for socio-demographic covariates and previous inpatient care due to somatic and psychiatric diagnoses, these associations remained significant for all-cause mortality (Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI)): HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.3–1.8; CVD: HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.0–1.9, and suicide: HR 3.84, 95% CI 2.4–6.1. For both cohorts 1990 and 2000 estimates point in the same direction. For the time-period 2000–2007, we found increased risks of mortality in the fully adjusted model due to all causes: HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.2–1.7; CVD: HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.2–2.7; overall cancer: HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.0–1.7; and suicide: HR 2.15, 95% CI 1.3–3.7.

Conclusion

Long-term sickness absence for psychiatric disorders predicted premature mortality from all-causes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and suicide.     

Changes of Body Mass Index in Relation to Mortality: Results of a Cohort of 42,099 Adults

Background

High Body-Mass-Index (BMI) is associated with increased all-cause mortality, but little is known about the effect of short- and long-term BMI change on mortality. The aim of the study was to determine how long-term weight change affects mortality.

Methods and findings

Within a population-based prospective cohort of 42,099 Austrian men and women (mean age 43 years) with at least three BMI measurements we investigated the relationship of BMI at baseline and two subsequent BMI change intervals of five years each with all-cause mortality using Cox proportional Hazard models. During median follow-up of 12 years 4,119 deaths were identified. The lowest mortalities were found in persons with normal weight or overweight at baseline and stable BMI over 10 years. Weight gain (≥0.10 kg/m²/year) during the first five years was associated with increased mortality in overweight and obese people. For weight gain during both time intervals mortality risk remained significantly increased only in overweight (Hazard Ratio (HR): 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.01; 1.92)) and obese women (1.85 (95% confidence interval: 1.18; 2.89)). Weight loss (< −0.10 kg/m²/year) increased all-cause mortality in men and women consistently. BMI change over time assessed using accepted World Health Organisation BMI categories showed no increased mortality risk for people who remained in the normal or overweight category for all three measurements. In contrast, HRs for stable obese men and women were 1.57 (95% CI: 1.31; 1.87) and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.25; 1.71) respectively.

Conclusion

Our findings highlight the importance of weight stability and obesity avoidance in prevention strategy.     

Marital status and mortality among middle age and elderly men and women in urban Shanghai

Background

Previous studies have suggested that marital status is associated with mortality, but few studies have been conducted in China where increasing aging population and divorce rates may have major impact on health and total mortality.

Methods

We examined the association of marital status with mortality using data from the Shanghai Women''s Health Study (1996–2009) and Shanghai Men''s Health Study (2002–2009), two population-based cohort studies of 74,942 women aged 40–70 years and 61,500 men aged 40–74 years at the study enrollment. Deaths were identified by biennial home visits and record linkage with the vital statistics registry. Marital status was categorized as married, never married, divorced, widowed, and all unmarried categories combined. Cox regression models were used to derive hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results

Unmarried and widowed women had an increased all-cause HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.21 and HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.20 respectively) and cancer (HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.32 and HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.34 respectively) mortality. Never married women had excess all-cause mortality (HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.09). Divorce was associated with elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in women (HR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.13) and elevated all-cause mortality (HR = 2.45, 95% CI: 1.55, 3.86) in men. Amongst men, not being married was associated with excess all-cause (HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.88) and CVD (HR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.07, 2.54) mortality.

Conclusions

Marriage is associated with decreased all cause mortality and CVD mortality, in particular, among both Chinese men and women.     

Mortality Associated with Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease in Older Women

Background

Current guidelines for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) recommend diabetes as a CVD risk equivalent. However, reports that have examined the risk of diabetes in comparison to pre-existing CVD are lacking among older women. We aimed to assess whether diabetes was associated with a similar risk of total and cause-specific mortality as a history of CVD in older women.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We studied 9218 women aged 68 years or older enrolled in a prospective cohort study (Study of Osteoporotic Fracture) during a mean follow-up period of 11.7 years and compared all-cause, cardiovascular and coronary heart disease mortality among 4 groups: non-diabetic women with and without existing CVD, diabetic women with and without existing CVD. Mean (SD) age of the participants was 75.2 (5.3) years, 3.5% reported diabetes and 6.8% reported existing CVD. During follow-up, 5117 women died with 36% from CVD. The multivariate adjusted risk of cardiovascular mortality was increased among both non-diabetic women with CVD (hazard ratio (HR) 2.32, 95% CI: 1.97–2.74, P<0.001) and diabetic women without CVD (HR 2.06, CI: 1.62–2.64, P<0.001) compared to non-diabetic women without existing CVD. All-cause, cardiovascular and coronary mortality of non-diabetic women with CVD were not significantly different from diabetic women without CVD.

Conclusions/Significance

Older diabetic women without CVD have a similar risk of cardiovascular mortality compared to non-diabetic women with pre-existing CVD. The equivalence of diabetes and CVD seems to extend to older women, supporting current guidelines for cardiovascular prevention.     

Sickness Absence Due to Specific Mental Diagnoses and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: A Cohort Study of 4.9 Million Inhabitants of Sweden

Background

Despite the magnitude and increase of sickness absence due to mental diagnoses, little is known regarding long-term health outcomes. The aim of this nationwide population-based, prospective cohort study was to investigate the association between sickness absence due to specific mental diagnoses and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

Methods

A cohort of all 4 857 943 individuals living in Sweden on 31.12.2004 (aged 16–64 years, not sickness absent, or on retirement or disability pension), was followed from 01.01.2005 through 31.12.2008 for all-cause and cause-specific mortality (suicide, cancer, circulatory disease) through linkage of individual register data. Individuals with at least one new sick-leave spell with a mental diagnosis in 2005 were compared to individuals with no sickness absence. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, education, country of birth, family situation, area of residence, and pre-existing morbidity (diagnosis-specific hospital inpatient (2000–2005) and outpatient (2001–2005) care).

Results

In the multivariate analyses, mental sickness absence in 2005 was associated with an increased risk for all-cause mortality: HR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.47–1.86 in women and in men: 1.73, 1.57–1.91; for suicide, cancer (both smoking and non-smoking related) as well as mortality due to circulatory disease only in men. Estimates for cause-specific mortality ranged from 1.48 to 3.37. Associations with all-cause mortality were found for all mental sickness absence diagnostic groups studied.

Conclusions

Knowledge about the prognosis of patients sickness absent with specific mental diagnoses is of crucial clinical importance in health care. Sickness absence due to specific mental diagnoses may here be used as a risk indictor for subsequent mortality.     

30 Year patterns of mortality in Tobago, West Indies, 1976-2005: impact of glucose intolerance and alcohol intake

Objectives

To determine the main predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality in a rural West Indian population in Plymouth, Tobago over 30 years.

Methods

Questionnaire survey for CV risk factors and alcohol consumption patterns administered at baseline in 1976 with 92.5% response rate. 831/832 patients were followed up until 2005 or death.

Results

Hypertension (>140/90 mm Hg) was prevalent in 48% of men and 44% of women, and 21% of men and 17% of women had diabetes. Evidence showed most predictors for all cause and cardiovascular mortality having the main effects at ages <60 years, (p-value for interaction<0.01) but no risk factors having sex-specific effects on mortality. The main predictors of all-cause mortality at age <60 years in the fully adjusted model were high sessional alcohol intake (hazard ratio (HR) 2.04, 95% CI 1.10-3.80), severe hypertension >160/95 mm Hg (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.09-2.60), diabetes (HR 3.28, 95% CI 1.89-5.69), and BMI (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.07). The main predictors of cardiovascular mortality were similar in the fully adjusted model: high sessional alcohol intake (HR 2.47 95% CI 1.10-5.57), severe hypertension (HR 2.78 95% CI 1.56-4.95), diabetes (HR 3.68 95% CI 1.77-7.67) and additionally LVH, (HR 5.54 95% CI 1.38-22.26), however BMI did not show independent effects. For men, high sessional alcohol intake explains 27% of all cause mortality, and 40% of cardiovascular mortality at age <60 yrs. In adults aged <60 years, the attributable risk fraction for IGT/Diabetes and all cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality is 28% in women vs. 11% in men, and 22% in women vs. 6% in men respectively.

Conclusions

In this Afro-Caribbean population we found that a major proportion of deaths are attributable to high sessional alcohol intake (in males), diabetes, and hypertension and these risk factors primarily operate in those below 60 years.     

High Weight Loss during Radiation Treatment Changes the Prognosis in Under-/Normal Weight Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients for the Worse: A Retrospective Analysis of 2433 Cases

Background

Although weight loss is common in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients receiving radiotherapy, the prognostic influence of weight loss and its impact modified by body mass index (BMI) are still unclear.

Methods

2433 NPC patients receiving radical radiotherapy at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center from November, 2000 to December, 2004 were enrolled. Weight change during radiation treatment was categorized into high weight loss (HWL) and low weight loss (LWL). The associations of HWL with overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) were analyzed by Cox regression.

Results

Among underweight patients, HWL was independently associated with poor OS (hazard ratio [HR], 2.06; 95% CI 1.36–3.11) and DSS (HR, 2.27; 95% CI 1.38–3.73), as compared with LWL, after adjusting for covariates. In normal weight patients, the impact of HWL on OS (HR, 1.47; 95% CI 1.19–1.80) and DSS (HR, 1.59; 95% CI 1.24–2.03) was moderate. Among overweight/obese patients, no significant association between HWL and OS (HR, 1.22; 95% CI 0.95–1.55), or DSS (HR, 1.23; 95% CI 0.93–1.64) was found.

Conclusion

Except for overweight/obese patients, high weight loss during radiation treatment was independently associated with poor survival in NPC. This impact was more prominent in the underweight patient group.     

Health Factors and Risk of All-Cause,Cardiovascular, and Coronary Heart Disease Mortality: Findings from the MONICA and HAPIEE Studies in Lithuania

Aims

This study investigated the trends and levels of the prevalence of health factors, and the association of all-cause and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality with healthy levels of combined risk factors among Lithuanian urban population.

Methods

Data from five general population surveys in Kaunas, Lithuania, conducted between 1983 and 2008 were used. Healthy factors measured at baseline include non-smoking, normal weight, normal arterial blood pressure, normal level of total serum cholesterol, normal physical activity and normal level of fasting glucose. Among 9,209 men and women aged 45–64 (7,648 were free from coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke at baseline), 1,219 death cases from any cause, 589 deaths from CVD, and 342 deaths from CHD occurred during follow up. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the association between health factors and mortality from all causes, CVD and CHD.

Results

Between 1983 and 2008, the proportion of subjects with 6 healthy levels of risk factors was higher in 2006–2008 than in 1983–1984 (0.6% vs. 0.2%; p = 0.09), although there was a significant increase in fasting glucose and a decline in intermediate physical activity. Men and women with normal or intermediate levels of risk factors had significantly lower all-cause, CVD and CHD mortality risk than persons with high levels of risk factors. Subjects with 5–6 healthy factors had hazard ratio (HR) of CVD mortality 0.35 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.15–0.83) compared to average risk in the whole population. The hazard ratio for CVD mortality risk was significant in men (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.12–0.97) but not in women (HR 0.38, 95% CI 0.09–1.67).

Conclusions

An inverse association of most healthy levels of cardiovascular risk factors with risk of all-cause and CVD mortality was observed in this urban population-based cohort. A greater number of cardiovascular health factors were related with significantly lower risk of CVD mortality, particularly among men.     

Serum 25(OH)D Is a 2-Year Predictor of All-Cause Mortality, Cardiac Death and Sudden Cardiac Death in Chest Pain Patients from Northern Argentina

Background

Several studies have shown an association between vitamin D deficiency and cardiovascular risk. Vitamin D status is assessed by determination of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] in serum.

Methods

We assessed the prognostic utility of 25(OH)D in 982 chest-pain patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) from Salta, Northern Argentina. 2-year follow-up data including all-cause mortality, cardiac death and sudden cardiac death were analyzed in quartiles of 25(OH)D, applying univariate and multivariate analysis.

Results

There were statistically significant changes in seasonal 25(OH)D levels. At follow-up, 119 patients had died. The mean 25(OH)D levels were significantly lower among patients dying than in long-term survivors, both in the total population and in patients with a troponin T (TnT) release (n = 388). When comparing 25(OH)D in the highest quartile to the lowest quartile in a multivariable Cox regression model for all-cause mortality, the hazard ratio (HR) for cardiac death and sudden cardiac death in the total population was 0.37 (95% CI, 0.19–0.73), p = 0.004, 0.23 (95% CI, 0.08–0.67), p = 0.007, and 0.32 (95% CI, 0.11–0.94), p = 0.038, respectively. In patients with TnT release, the respective HR was 0.24 (95% CI, 0.10–0.54), p = 0.001, 0.18 (95% CI, 0.05–0.60), p = 0.006 and 0.25 (95% CI, 0.07–0.89), p = 0.033. 25(OH)D had no prognostic value in patients with no TnT release.

Conclusion

Vitamin D was shown to be a useful biomarker for prediction of mortality when obtained at admission in chest pain patients with suspected ACS.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01377402","term_id":"NCT01377402"}}NCT01377402     

Progression of Aortic Arch Calcification Over 1 Year Is an Independent Predictor of Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

Backgrounds and Aims

The presence and progression of vascular calcification have been demonstrated as important risk factors for mortality in dialysis patients. However, since the majority of subjects included in most previous studies were hemodialysis patients, limited information was available in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of aortic arch calcification (AoAC) and prognostic value of AoAC progression in PD patients.

Methods

We prospectively determined AoAC by chest X-ray at PD start and after 12 months, and evaluated the impact of AoAC progression on mortality in 415 incident PD patients.

Results

Of 415 patients, 169 patients (40.7%) had AoAC at baseline with a mean of 18.1±11.2%. The presence of baseline AoAC was an independent predictor of all-cause [Hazard ratio (HR): 2.181, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.336–3.561, P = 0.002] and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 3.582, 95% CI: 1.577–8.132, P = 0.002). Among 363 patients with follow-up chest X-rays at 12 months after PD start, the proportion of patients with AoAC progression was significantly higher in patients with baseline AoAC (64.2 vs. 5.3%, P<0.001). Moreover, all-cause and cardiovascular death rates were significantly higher in the progression groups than in the non-progression group (P<0.001). Multivariate Cox analysis revealed that AoAC progression was an independent predictor for all-cause (HR: 2.625, 95% CI: 1.150–5.991, P = 0.022) and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 4.008, 95% CI: 1.079–14.890, P = 0.038) in patients with AoAC at baseline.

Conclusions

The presence and progression of AoAC assessed by chest X-ray were independently associated with unfavorable outcomes in incident PD patients. Regular follow-up by chest X-ray could be a simple and useful method to stratify mortality risk in these patients.     

Association of Left Ventricular Mass with All-Cause Mortality,Myocardial Infarction and Stroke

Background

Our aim was to assess the association of left ventricular mass with mortality and nonfatal cardiovascular events.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Left ventricular mass was measured by echocardiography in 40138 adult patients (mean age 61.1±16.4 years, 52.5% male). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Secondary endpoints included nonfatal myocardial infarction and nonfatal stroke. During a mean follow-up period of 5.6±3.9 years, 9181 patients died, 901 patients had a nonfatal myocardial infarction, and 2139 patients had a nonfatal stroke. Cumulative 10-year mortality was 26.8%, 31.9%, 37.4% and 46.4% in patients with normal, mildly, moderately and severely increased left ventricular mass, respectively (p<0.001). Ten-year rates of nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke ranged from 3.2% and 6.7% in patients with normal left ventricular mass to 5.3% and 12.7% in those with severe increase in left ventricular mass, respectively. After multivariate adjustment, left ventricular mass remained an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per 100 g increase 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14–1–27, p<0.001 in women, and HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04–1–13, p<0.001 in men), myocardial infarction (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.31–1.94, p<0.001 in women and HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.02–1.29, p = 0.019 in men) and stroke (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.13–1.40, p<0.001 in women and HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.09–1.30, p<0.001 in men).

Conclusions/Significance

Left ventricular mass has a graded and independent association with all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke.     

A Prospective Study of Tobacco Smoking and Mortality in Bangladesh

Background

Limited data are available on smoking-related mortality in low-income countries, where both chronic disease burden and prevalence of smoking are increasing.

Methods

Using data on 20, 033 individuals in the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study (HEALS) in Bangladesh, we prospectively evaluated the association between tobacco smoking and all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease mortality during ∼7.6 years of follow-up.Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for deaths from all-cause, cancer, CVD, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and stroke, in relation to status, duration, and intensity of cigarette/bidi and hookah smoking.

Results

Among men, cigarette/bidi smoking was positively associated with all-cause (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.06 1.86) and cancer mortality (HR 2.91, 1.24 6.80), and there was a dose-response relationship between increasing intensity of cigarette/bidi consumption and increasing mortality. An elevated risk of death from ischemic heart disease (HR 1.87, 1.08 3.24) was associated with current cigarette/bidi smoking. Among women, the corresponding HRs were 1.65 (95% CI 1.16 2.36) for all-cause mortality and 2.69 (95% CI 1.20 6.01) for ischemic heart disease mortality. Similar associations were observed for hookah smoking. There was a trend towards reduced risk for the mortality outcomes with older age at onset of cigarette/bidi smoking and increasing years since quitting cigarette/bibi smoking among men. We estimated that cigarette/bidi smoking accounted for about 25.0% of deaths in men and 7.6% in women.

Conclusions

Tobacco smoking was responsible for substantial proportion of premature deaths in the Bangladeshi population, especially among men. Stringent measures of tobacco control and cessation are needed to reduce tobacco-related deaths in Bangladesh.     

Hormone treatment, estrogen receptor polymorphisms and mortality: a prospective cohort study

Background

The association between hormone treatment (HT) and mortality remains controversial. This study aimed to determine whether the risk of mortality associated with HT use varies depending on the specific characteristics of treatment and genetic variability in terms of the estrogen receptor.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A prospective, population-based study of 5135 women aged 65 years and older who were recruited from three cities in France and followed over six years. Detailed information related to HT use was obtained and five estrogen receptor polymorphisms were genotyped. The total follow-up was 25,436 person-years and during this time 352 women died. Cancer (36.4%) and cardiovascular disease (19.3%) were the major causes of death. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, education, centre, living situation, comorbidity, depression, physical and mental incapacities, indicated no significant association between HT and mortality, regardless of the type or duration of treatment, or the age at initiation. However, the association between HT and all-cause or cancer-related mortality varied across women, with significant interactions identified with three estrogen receptor polymorphisms (p-values = 0.004 to 0.03) in adjusted analyses. Women carrying the C allele of ESR1 rs2234693 had a decreased risk of all-cause mortality with HT (HR: 0.42, 95% CI: 0.18–0.97), while in stark contrast, those homozygous for the T allele had a significantly increased risk of cancer-related mortality (HR: 3.18, 95% CI: 1.23–8.20). The findings were similar for ESR1 rs9340799 and ESR2 rs1271572.

Conclusions/Significance

The risk of mortality was not associated with HT duration, type or age at initiation. It was however not equal across all women, with some women appearing genetically more vulnerable to the effects of HT in terms of their estrogen receptor genotype. These findings, if confirmed in another independent study, may help explain the differential susceptibility of women to the beneficial or adverse effects of HT.     

Biomarkers of extracellular matrix metabolism (MMP-9 and TIMP-1) and risk of stroke, myocardial infarction, and cause-specific mortality: cohort study

Objective

Turnover of the extracellular matrix in all solid organs is governed mainly by a balance between the degrading matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their tissue inhibitors (TIMPs). An altered extracellular matrix metabolism has been implicated in a variety of diseases. We investigated relations of serum levels of MMP-9 and TIMP-1 to mortality risk from an etiological perspective.

Design

The prospective Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) cohort, followed from 1991–1995 for up to 18.1 years. A random population-based sample of 1,082 71-year-old men, no loss to follow-up. Endpoints were all-cause (n = 628), cardiovascular (n = 230), non-cardiovascular (n = 398) and cancer mortality (n = 178), and fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction (n = 138) or stroke (n = 163).

Results

Serum MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels were associated with risk of all-cause mortality (Cox proportional hazard ratio [HR] per standard deviation 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.19; and 1.11, 1.02–1.20; respectively). TIMP-1 levels were mainly related to risks of cardiovascular mortality and stroke (HR per standard deviation 1.22, 95% CI 1.09–1.37; and 1.18, 1.04–1.35; respectively). All relations except those of TIMP-1 to stroke risk were attenuated by adjustment for cardiovascular disease risk factors. Relations in a subsample without cardiovascular disease or cancer were similar to those in the total sample.

Conclusion

In this community-based cohort of elderly men, serum MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels were related to mortality risk. An altered extracellular matrix metabolism may be involved in several detrimental pathways, and circulating MMP-9 or TIMP-1 levels may be relevant markers thereof.     

Dietary fiber, carbohydrate quality and quantity, and mortality risk of individuals with diabetes mellitus

Background

Dietary fiber, carbohydrate quality and quantity are associated with mortality risk in the general population. Whether this is also the case among diabetes patients is unknown.

Objective

To assess the associations of dietary fiber, glycemic load, glycemic index, carbohydrate, sugar, and starch intake with mortality risk in individuals with diabetes.

Methods

This study was a prospective cohort study among 6,192 individuals with confirmed diabetes mellitus (mean age of 57.4 years, and median diabetes duration of 4.4 years at baseline) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Dietary intake was assessed at baseline (1992–2000) with validated dietary questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, while adjusting for CVD-related, diabetes-related, and nutritional factors.

Results

During a median follow-up of 9.2 y, 791 deaths were recorded, 306 due to CVD. Dietary fiber was inversely associated with all-cause mortality risk (adjusted HR per SD increase, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.75–0.91]) and CVD mortality risk (0.76[0.64–0.89]). No significant associations were observed for glycemic load, glycemic index, carbohydrate, sugar, or starch. Glycemic load (1.42[1.07–1.88]), carbohydrate (1.67[1.18–2.37]) and sugar intake (1.53[1.12–2.09]) were associated with an increased total mortality risk among normal weight individuals (BMI≤25 kg/m²; 22% of study population) but not among overweight individuals (P interaction≤0.04). These associations became stronger after exclusion of energy misreporters.

Conclusions

High fiber intake was associated with a decreased mortality risk. High glycemic load, carbohydrate and sugar intake were associated with an increased mortality risk in normal weight individuals with diabetes.