Exceptional among-lineage variation in diversification rates during the radiation of Australia's most diverse vertebrate clade

The disparity in species richness among groups of organisms is one of the most pervasive features of life on earth. A number of studies have addressed this pattern across higher taxa (e.g. 'beetles'), but we know much less about the generality and causal basis of the variation in diversity within evolutionary radiations at lower taxonomic scales. Here, we address the causes of variation in species richness among major lineages of Australia's most diverse vertebrate radiation, a clade of at least 232 species of scincid lizards. We use new mitochondrial and nuclear intron DNA sequences to test the extent of diversification rate variation in this group. We present an improved likelihood-based method for estimating per-lineage diversification rates from combined phylogenetic and taxonomic (species richness) data, and use the method in a hypothesis-testing framework to localize diversification rate shifts on phylogenetic trees. We soundly reject homogeneity of diversification rates among members of this radiation, and find evidence for a dramatic rate increase in the common ancestor of the genera Ctenotus and Lerista. Our results suggest that the evolution of traits associated with climate tolerance may have had a role in shaping patterns of diversity in this group.     

Steady Plio-Pleistocene diversification and a 2-million-year sympatry threshold in a New Zealand cicada radiation

Estimation of diversification rates in evolutionary radiations requires a complete accounting of cryptic species diversity. The rapidly evolving songs of acoustically signaling insects make them good model organisms for such studies. This paper examines the timing of diversification of a large (30 taxon) group of New Zealand cicadas (genus Kikihia Dugdale). We use Bayesian relaxed-clock methods and phylogenetic trees based on nuclear and mitochondrial DNA data, and we apply alternative combinations of evolutionary rate priors and geological calibrations. The extant Kikihia taxa began to diversify near the Miocene/Pliocene boundary around the time of increased mountain-building, and both the mitochondrial and nuclear-gene trees confirm early splits of lineages currently represented by lowland forest-dwelling taxa. Most lineages originated in the Pleistocene, and sustained diversification occurred rapidly at over 0.5 lineages/my, a rate comparable to that of the Hawaiian silverswords. Diversification rate tests suggest an increase in the early to mid-Pliocene, followed by constant diversification from the Late Pliocene onward. No descendants of the many Pleistocene-age splits have evolved the ability to coexist in sympatry, and, where they do come into contact, hybrid zones have been documented based on acoustic and DNA evidence. In contrast, lineages separated in time by approximately 2Myr often overlap in distribution with no evidence of hybridization. This suggests that at least 2Myr has been required to achieve the level of divergence required for reproductive isolation.     

Dealing with incomplete taxon sampling and diversification of a large clade of mushroom-forming fungi

The absence of an adequate fossil record can hinder understanding the process of diversification that underlies the evolutionary history of a given group. In such cases, investigators have used ultrametric trees derived from molecular data from extant taxa to gain insights into processes of speciation and extinction over time. Inadequate taxon sampling, however, impairs such inferences. In this study, we use simulations to investigate the effect of incomplete taxon sampling on the accumulation of lineages through time for a clade of mushroom-forming fungi, the Hebelomateae. To achieve complete taxon sampling, we use a new Bayesian approach that incorporates substitute lineages to estimate diversification rates. Unlike many studies of animals and plants, we find no evidence of a slowdown in speciation. This indicates the Hebelomateae has not undergone an adaptive radiation. Rather, these fungi have evolved under a relatively constant rate of diversification since their most recent common ancestor, which we date back to the Eocene. The estimated net diversification rate (0.08-0.19 spp./lineage/Ma) is comparable with that of many plants and animals. We suggest that continuous diversification in the Hebelomateae has been facilitated by climatic and vegetation changes throughout the Cenozoic. We also caution against modeling multiple genes as a single partition when performing phylogenetic dating analyses.     

Bats, clocks, and rocks: diversification patterns in Chiroptera

Identifying nonrandom clade diversification is a critical first step toward understanding the evolutionary processes underlying any radiation and how best to preserve future phylogenetic diversity. However, differences in diversification rates have not been quantitatively assessed for the majority of groups because of the lack of necessary analytical tools (e.g., complete species-level phylogenies, estimates of divergence times, and robust statistics which incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty and test appropriate null models of clade growth). Here, for the first time, we investigate diversification rate heterogeneity in one of the largest groups studied thus far, the bats (Mammalia: Chiroptera). We use a recent, robust statistical approach (whole-tree likelihood-based relative rate tests) on complete dated species-level supertree phylogenies. As has been demonstrated previously for most other groups, among-lineage diversification rate within bats has not been constant. However, we show that bat diversification is more heterogeneous than in other mammalian clades thus far studied. The whole-tree likelihood-based relative rates tests suggest that clades within the families Phyllostomidae and Molossidae underwent a number of significant changes in relative diversification rate. There is also some evidence for rate shifts within Pteropodidae, Emballonuridae, Rhinolophidae, Hipposideridae, and Vespertilionidae, but the significance of these shifts depends on polytomy resolution within each family. Diversification rate in bats has also not been constant, with the largest diversification rate shifts occurring 30-50 million years ago, a time overlapping with the greatest number of shifts in flowering plant diversification rates.     

The phylogenetic signal of diversification rates

Hypotheses to explain the causes of diversity gradients have increasingly focused on the factors that actually change species numbers, namely speciation, extinction and dispersal. A common assumption of many of these hypotheses is that there should be phylogenetic signal in diversification rates, yet this assumption has rarely been tested explicitly. In this study, we compile a large data set including 328,219 species of plants, mammals, amphibians and squamates to assess the level of phylogenetic signal in their diversification rates. Significant phylogenetic signal was detected in all data sets, except for squamates, suggesting not only that closely related clades indeed might share similar diversification rates, but also that the level of phylogenetic signal might vary considerably between them. Moreover, there were intriguing differences among taxa in the rate of decay in phylogenetic autocorrelation over time, underscoring the existence of taxon-specific patterns of phylogenetic autocorrelation. These results have important implications for the development of more realistic models of species diversification.     

Explaining global insect species richness: lessons from a decade of macroevolutionary entomology

The last 10 years have seen more research on insect macroevolution than all the previous years combined. Here, I summarize and criticise the claims that have been made by comparative phylogenetic and fossil studies, and identify some future opportunities. We know the fossil record and phylogeny of insects much better than we did 10 years ago. We cannot simply ascribe the richness of insects, or their subtaxa, to either age or diversification rate. There is evidence that fossil family richness peaked much earlier than previously suspected. Phylogenetic evidence, however, suggests that species‐level net diversification rates are accelerating, though this is highly variable across taxa, implying ongoing changes in global taxonomic composition. Although there is evidence that wings and metamorphosis have had some macroevolutionary effects, the most definitive broad phylogenetic study does not suggest that they directly elevated net diversification of species. There is little evidence that insect body size influences net diversification rate. Compared to other phyla, arthropod richness, of which insects comprise the major part, is best explained by non‐marine habit, presence of parasitic lifestyles, a skeleton, vision, and dioecy. Herbivory cannot yet robustly be said to increase diversification over other diets across all insects: there are contrary analyses, and effects differ in different taxa. Many phylogenetic studies now document how it sometimes does: from co‐speciation, to diffuse co‐evolution with host shifting. The last decade has shown that climate change and biogeographic processes are likely important in generating or limiting insect diversification, but there is a need for greater statistical rigour in such studies. There is also a need to understand the validity of some widely used statistical methods better, and to make better use of the data and methods that exist. Macroevolutionary entomology could greatly benefit from online data integration platforms to facilitate analyses of broader scope.     

Geographic range size, life history and rates of diversification in Australian mammals

Abstract What causes species richness to vary among different groups of organisms? Two hypotheses are that large geographical ranges and fast life history either reduce extinction rates or raise speciation rates, elevating a clade's rate of diversification. Here we present a comparative analysis of these hypotheses using data on the phylogenetic relationships, geographical ranges and life history of the terrestrial mammal fauna of Australia. By comparing species richness patterns to null models, we show that species are distributed nonrandomly among genera. Using sister‐clade comparisons to control for clade age, we then find that faster diversification is significantly associated with larger geographical ranges and larger litters, but there is no evidence for an effect of body size or age at first breeding on diversification rates. We believe the most likely explanation for these patterns is that larger litters and geographical ranges increase diversification rates because they buffer species from extinction. We also discuss the possibility that positive effects of litter size and range size on diversification rates result from elevated speciation rates.     

Intercontinental and intracontinental biogeography patterns and methods

The study of biogeography has benefited from the exponential increase of DNA sequence data from recent molecular systematic studies, the development of analytical methods in the last decade concerning divergence time estimation and geographic area analyses, and the availability of large-scale distributiofi data of species in many groups of organisms. The underlying principle of divergence time estimation from DNA and protein data is that sequence divergence depends on the product of evolutionary rate and time. With their molecular clock hypothesis, Zuckerkandl and Pauling （1965） separated rates of molecular evolution from time by incorporating fossil evidence. Originally,     

Congruent phylogenetic and fossil signatures of mammalian diversification dynamics driven by Tertiary abiotic change

Computational methods for estimating diversification rates from extant species phylogenetic trees have become abundant in evolutionary research. However, little evidence exists about how their outcome compares to a complementary and direct source of information: the fossil record. Furthermore, there is virtually no direct test for the congruence of evolutionary rates based on these two sources. This task is only achievable in clades with both a well‐known fossil record and a complete phylogenetic tree. Here, we compare the evolutionary rates of ruminant mammals as estimated from their vast paleontological record—over 1200 species spanning 50 myr—and their living‐species phylogeny. Significantly, our results revealed that the ruminant's fossil record and phylogeny reflect congruent evolutionary processes. The concordance is especially strong for the last 25 myr, when living groups became a dominant part of ruminant diversity. We found empirical support for previous hypotheses based on simulations and neontological data: The pattern captured by the tree depends on how clade specific the processes are and which clades are involved. Also, we report fossil evidence for a postradiation speciation slowdown coupled with constant, moderate extinction in the Miocene. The recent deceleration in phylogenetic rates is connected to rapid extinction triggered by recent climatic fluctuations.     

Primate extinction risk and historical patterns of speciation and extinction in relation to body mass

Body mass is thought to influence diversification rates, but previous studies have produced ambiguous results. We investigated patterns of diversification across 100 trees obtained from a new Bayesian inference of primate phylogeny that sampled trees in proportion to their posterior probabilities. First, we used simulations to assess the validity of previous studies that used linear models to investigate the links between IUCN Red List status and body mass. These analyses support the use of linear models for ordinal ranked data on threat status, and phylogenetic generalized linear models revealed a significant positive correlation between current extinction risk and body mass across our tree block. We then investigated historical patterns of speciation and extinction rates using a recently developed maximum-likelihood method. Specifically, we predicted that body mass correlates positively with extinction rate because larger bodied organisms reproduce more slowly, and body mass correlates negatively with speciation rate because smaller bodied organisms are better able to partition niche space. We failed to find evidence that extinction rates covary with body mass across primate phylogeny. Similarly, the speciation rate was generally unrelated to body mass, except in some tests that indicated an increase in the speciation rate with increasing body mass. Importantly, we discovered that our data violated a key assumption of sample randomness with respect to body mass. After correcting for this bias, we found no association between diversification rates and mass.     

Phylogenetic estimates of diversification rate are affected by molecular rate variation

Molecular phylogenies are increasingly being used to investigate the patterns and mechanisms of macroevolution. In particular, node heights in a phylogeny can be used to detect changes in rates of diversification over time. Such analyses rest on the assumption that node heights in a phylogeny represent the timing of diversification events, which in turn rests on the assumption that evolutionary time can be accurately predicted from DNA sequence divergence. But there are many influences on the rate of molecular evolution, which might also influence node heights in molecular phylogenies, and thus affect estimates of diversification rate. In particular, a growing number of studies have revealed an association between the net diversification rate estimated from phylogenies and the rate of molecular evolution. Such an association might, by influencing the relative position of node heights, systematically bias estimates of diversification time. We simulated the evolution of DNA sequences under several scenarios where rates of diversification and molecular evolution vary through time, including models where diversification and molecular evolutionary rates are linked. We show that commonly used methods, including metric‐based, likelihood and Bayesian approaches, can have a low power to identify changes in diversification rate when molecular substitution rates vary. Furthermore, the association between the rates of speciation and molecular evolution rate can cause the signature of a slowdown or speedup in speciation rates to be lost or misidentified. These results suggest that the multiple sources of variation in molecular evolutionary rates need to be considered when inferring macroevolutionary processes from phylogenies.     

Likelihood methods for detecting temporal shifts in diversification rates

Maximum likelihood is a potentially powerful approach for investigating the tempo of diversification using molecular phylogenetic data. Likelihood methods distinguish between rate-constant and rate-variable models of diversification by fitting birth-death models to phylogenetic data. Because model selection in this context is a test of the null hypothesis that diversification rates have been constant over time, strategies for selecting best-fit models must minimize Type I error rates while retaining power to detect rate variation when it is present. Here I examine model selection, parameter estimation, and power to reject the null hypothesis using likelihood models based on the birth-death process. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) has often been used to select among diversification models; however, I find that selecting models based on the lowest AIC score leads to a dramatic inflation of the Type I error rate. When appropriately corrected to reduce Type I error rates, the birth-death likelihood approach performs as well or better than the widely used gamma statistic, at least when diversification rates have shifted abruptly over time. Analyses of datasets simulated under a range of rate-variable diversification scenarios indicate that the birth-death likelihood method has much greater power to detect variation in diversification rates when extinction is present. Furthermore, this method appears to be the only approach available that can distinguish between a temporal increase in diversification rates and a rate-constant model with nonzero extinction. I illustrate use of the method by analyzing a published phylogeny for Australian agamid lizards.     

Ecological limits and diversification rate: alternative paradigms to explain the variation in species richness among clades and regions

Diversification rate is one of the most important metrics in macroecological and macroevolutionary studies. Here I demonstrate that diversification analyses can be misleading when researchers assume that diversity increases unbounded through time, as is typical in molecular phylogenetic studies. If clade diversity is regulated by ecological factors, then species richness may be independent of clade age and it may not be possible to infer the rate at which diversity arose. This has substantial consequences for the interpretation of many studies that have contrasted rates of diversification among clades and regions. Often, it is possible to estimate the total diversification experienced by a clade but not diversification rate itself. I show that the evidence for ecological limits on diversity in higher taxa is widespread. Finally, I explore the implications of ecological limits for a variety of ecological and evolutionary questions that involve inferences about speciation and extinction rates from phylogenetic data.     

Correlations of life-history and distributional-range variation with salamander diversification rates: evidence for species selection

Evolutionary biologists have long debated the relative influence of species selection on evolutionary patterns. As a test, we apply a statistical phylogenetic approach to evaluate the influence of traits related to species distribution and life-history characteristics on patterns of diversification in salamanders. We use independent contrasts to test trait-mediated diversification while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty in relationships among all salamander families. Using a neontological data set, we find several species-level traits to be variable, heritable, and associated with differential success (i.e., higher diversification rates) at higher taxonomic categories. Specifically, the macroecological trait of small geographic-range size is strongly correlated with a higher rate of net diversification. We further consider the role that plasticity in life-history traits appears to fulfill in macroevolutionary processes of lineage divergence and durability. We find that pedotypy--wherein some, but not all, organisms of a species mature in the gilled form without metamorphosing-is also associated with higher net diversification rate than is the absence of developmental plasticity. Often dismissed as an insignificant process in evolution, we provide direct evidence for the role of species selection in lineage diversification of salamanders.     

DO FRESHWATER FISHES DIVERSIFY FASTER THAN MARINE FISHES? A TEST USING STATE‐DEPENDENT DIVERSIFICATION ANALYSES AND MOLECULAR PHYLOGENETICS OF NEW WORLD SILVERSIDES (ATHERINOPSIDAE)

Freshwater habitats make up only ～0.01% of available aquatic habitat and yet harbor 40% of all fish species, whereas marine habitats comprise >99% of available aquatic habitat and have only 60% of fish species. One possible explanation for this pattern is that diversification rates are higher in freshwater habitats than in marine habitats. We investigated diversification in marine and freshwater lineages in the New World silverside fish clade Menidiinae (Teleostei, Atherinopsidae). Using a time‐calibrated phylogeny and a state‐dependent speciation–extinction framework, we determined the frequency and timing of habitat transitions in Menidiinae and tested for differences in diversification parameters between marine and freshwater lineages. We found that Menidiinae is an ancestrally marine lineage that independently colonized freshwater habitats four times followed by three reversals to the marine environment. Our state‐dependent diversification analyses showed that freshwater lineages have higher speciation and extinction rates than marine lineages. Net diversification rates were higher (but not significant) in freshwater than marine environments. The marine lineage‐through time (LTT) plot shows constant accumulation, suggesting that ecological limits to clade growth have not slowed diversification in marine lineages. Freshwater lineages exhibited an upturn near the recent in their LTT plot, which is consistent with our estimates of high background extinction rates. All sequence data are currently being archived on Genbank and phylogenetic trees archived on Treebase.     

Global dispersal and diversification of the genus Schoenus (Cyperaceae) from the Western Australian biodiversity hotspot

The predominantly austral genus Schoenus L. is the largest genus in tribe Schoeneae and one of the ten most species-rich Cyperaceae genera, with over 150 accepted species found mostly in Australia, New Zealand, southeast Asia, and southern Africa. Here, we use data based on two nuclear and three plastid DNA regions to present one of the most comprehensive phylogenetic reconstructions of a genus in Cyperaceae to date, covering over 70% of described species of Schoenus. After recent taxonomic realignments in the last 4 years have both added and removed species from the genus, we show that Schoenus is now monophyletic. In addition, our results indicate that Schoenus originated in Western Australia in the Paleocene and eventually dispersed to surrounding continents, but rarely back. The diversification rate of the genus appears to have slightly decreased over time, and there has not been an increase associated with the establishment of the Cape clade endemic to the sclerophyllous fynbos vegetation type, such as has been reported in other plant lineages endemic to the Cape region. These results will serve as a template to understanding the complex patterns of genome size evolution and to untangle drivers of diversification in this genus.     

Climate and host‐plant associations shaped the evolution of ceutorhynch weevils throughout the Cenozoic

Using molecular phylogenetic data and methods we inferred divergence times and diversification patterns for the weevil subfamily Ceutorhynchinae in the context of host‐plant associations and global climate over evolutionary time. We detected four major diversification shifts that correlate with both host shifts and major climate events. Ceutorhynchinae experienced an increase in diversification rate at ～53 Ma, during the Early Eocene Climate Optimum, coincident with a host shift to Lamiaceae. A second major diversification phase occurred at the end of the Eocene (～34 Ma). This contrasts with the overall deterioration in climate equability at the Eocene‐Oligocene boundary, but tracks the diversification of important host plant clades in temperate (higher) latitudes, leading to increased diversification rates in the weevil clades infesting temperate hosts. A third major phase of diversification is correlated with the rising temperatures of the Late Oligocene Warming Event (～26.5 Ma); diversification rates then declined shortly after the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (～14.9 Ma). Our results indicate that biotic and abiotic factors together explain the evolution of Ceutorhynchinae better than each of these drivers viewed in isolation.     

The diversification of Halenia (Gentianaceae): ecological opportunity versus key innovation

The plant genus Halenia (Gentianaceae) consists of herbs growing in temperate and tropical alpine habitats and most species possess flowers in which nectar is produced in spurs. This probably helps reward only specialized long-tongued pollinators, and a narrow pollinator/flower relationship is thought to accelerate diversification rates (a key innovation). To test the pattern of diversification of Halenia against the unspurred sister group we reconstructed phylogenetic relationships among 22 species plus outgroups using nuclear ITS and chloroplast rpl16 intron sequence data. We show that Halenia originated in East Asia and migrated via North America into Central America. From there, it colonized South America three times independently, probably within the last million years. Significant changes in diversification rates were found during the evolution of Halenia using a sister group method, a likelihood method, and a diversity-through-time plot. In contrast to other studies, we could not observe a direct speciation rate effect of the evolution of nectar spurs in comparison with the unspurred sister group of Halenia. Rather, increases in diversification occurred following the colonization of Central and South America by spurred progenitor taxa. This later switch in diversification may have resulted from the availability of new geographical and ecological opportunities, or from the availability of more and different pollinators in these regions. Following the latter hypothesis, the nectar spurs were a preadaption and functioned as a key innovation only in this new biotic environment. After an initial rapid increase, a reduction in diversification rate was observed in Central America, probably illustrating density dependence of speciation rates. Finally, we found preliminary evidence for the key innovation hypothesis in geologically young spurred and unspurred lineages of Halenia in South America.     

Phylogeny of Saxifragales (angiosperms,eudicots): analysis of a rapid,ancient radiation

Rapid, ancient radiations pose one of the most difficult challenges for phylogenetic estimation. We used DNA sequence data of 9,006 aligned base pairs from five genes (chloroplast atpB, matK, rbcL, and 18S and 26S nrDNA) to elucidate relationships among major lineages of Saxifragales (angiosperms, eudicots). These relationships were poorly supported in previous studies, apparently because the lineages originated in rapid succession. Using an array of methods that explicitly incorporate assumptions about evolutionary process (weighted maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, LogDet/paralinear transformed distances), we show that the initial diversification of Saxifragales was indeed rapid. We suggest that the poor resolution of our best phylogenetic estimate is not due to violations of assumptions or to combining data partitions having conflicting histories or processes. We show that estimated branch lengths during the initial diversification are exceedingly short, and we estimate that acquiring sufficient sequence data to resolve these relationships would require an extraordinary effort (approximately 10(7) bp), assuming a linear increase in branch support with branch length. However, our simulation of much larger data sets containing a distribution of phylogenetic signal similar to that of the five sampled gene sequences suggests a limit to achievable branch support. Using statistical tests of differences in the likelihoods of topologies, we evaluated whether the initial radiation of Saxifragales involved the simultaneous origin of major lineages. Our results are consistent with predictions that resolving the branching order of rapid, ancient radiations requires sampling characters that evolved rapidly at the time of the radiation but have since experienced a slower evolutionary rate.     

ESTIMATING DIVERSIFICATION RATES: HOW USEFUL ARE DIVERGENCE TIMES?

The dynamics of species diversification rates are a key component of macroevolutionary patterns. Although not absolutely necessary, the use of divergence times inferred from sequence data has led to development of more powerful methods for inferring diversification rates. However, it is unclear what impact uncertainty in age estimates have on diversification rate inferences. Here, we quantify these effects using both Bayesian and frequentist methodology. Through simulation, we demonstrate that adding sequence data results in more precise estimates of internal node ages, but a reasonable approximation of these node ages is often sufficient to approach the theoretical minimum variance in speciation rate estimates. We also find that even crude estimates of divergence times increase the power of tests of diversification rate differences between sister clades. Finally, because Bayesian and frequentist methods provided similar assessments of error, novel Bayesian approaches may provide a useful framework for tests of diversification rates in more complex contexts than are addressed here.