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Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections |
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| Authors: | Peter Alexander Reinhard Prestele Peter H Verburg Almut Arneth Claudia Baranzelli Filipe Batista e Silva Calum Brown Adam Butler Katherine Calvin Nicolas Dendoncker Jonathan C Doelman Robert Dunford Kerstin Engström David Eitelberg Shinichiro Fujimori Paula A Harrison Tomoko Hasegawa Petr Havlik Sascha Holzhauer Florian Humpenöder Chris Jacobs‐Crisioni Atul K Jain Tamás Krisztin Page Kyle Carlo Lavalle Tim Lenton Jiayi Liu Prasanth Meiyappan Alexander Popp Tom Powell Ronald D Sands Rüdiger Schaldach Elke Stehfest Jevgenijs Steinbuks Andrzej Tabeau Hans van Meijl Marshall A Wise Mark D A Rounsevell |
| Affiliation: | 1. School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK;2. Land Economy and Environment Research Group, SRUC, Edinburgh, UK;3. Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;4. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK‐IFU), Garmisch‐Partenkirchen, Germany;5. Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Varese, Italy;6. Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, Edinburgh, UK;7. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, USA;8. Department of Geography, Namur Research Group on Sustainable Development, University of Namur, Namur, Belgium;9. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, The Netherlands;10. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK;11. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster, UK;12. Department of Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden;13. Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan;14. Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria;15. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany;16. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA;17. Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK;18. Resource and Rural Economics Division, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington, DC, USA;19. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany;20. Development Research Group, The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA;21. LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, The Hague, The Netherlands |
| Abstract: | Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land‐based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro‐economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover. |
| Keywords: | cropland land cover land use model inter‐comparison uncertainty |
