Deforestation in Lacandonia (southeast Mexico): evidence for the declaration of the northernmost tropical hot-spot

To assess the conservation status of Lacandonia, a megadiversity area in Mexico, rates of deforestation were calculated for the periods 1974–1981 and 1981–1991, using a random sample of 38 5 × 5km sites. We evaluated: (i) the overall magnitude of, and spatial and temporal variation in deforestation; (ii) how spatial variation relates to human population density, terrain slope and the presence of the Montes Azules Biosphere Reserve; (iii) the magnitude of potential plant species loss associated with deforestation. Overall deforestation was greater in the former than in the second period (1412 vs. 744ha/year), although mean rates (2.1 and 1.6%/year) were statistically indistinguishable due to a considerable spatial variation. The greatest spatial variation was related to the presence of the Montes Azules Reserve: deforestation outside the reserve was 20 and 6 times greater in the first and second period, respectively. Population density and terrain slope were related to deforestation but the relationship was considerably poor. Estimates of plant species committed to extinction (out of the expected total flora of 4314 species) were as high as 22% by year 2035, and 55% by year 2135. Such levels of potential species extinction associated to deforestation, and the great biological diversity of Lacandonia provide evidence to declare it as the northernmost tropical hot-spot and a priority goal in conservation efforts.