Evaluation of the relative virulence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants: a retrospective cohort study in Ontario,Canada

Background:Between February and June 2021, the initial wild-type strains of SARS-CoV-2 were supplanted in Ontario, Canada, by new variants of concern (VOCs), first those with the N501Y mutation (i.e., Alpha/B1.1.17, Beta/B.1.351 and Gamma/P.1 variants) and then the Delta/B.1.617 variant. The increased transmissibility of these VOCs has been documented, but knowledge about their virulence is limited. We used Ontario’s COVID-19 case data to evaluate the virulence of these VOCs compared with non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 strains, as measured by risk of hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death.Methods:We created a retrospective cohort of people in Ontario who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and were screened for VOCs, with dates of test report between Feb. 7 and June 27, 2021. We constructed mixed-effect logistic regression models with hospitalization, ICU admission and death as outcome variables. We adjusted models for age, sex, time, vaccination status, comorbidities and pregnancy status. We included health units as random intercepts.Results:Our cohort included 212 326 people. Compared with non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 strains, the adjusted elevation in risk associated with N501Y-positive variants was 52% (95% confidence interval [CI] 42%–63%) for hospitalization, 89% (95% CI 67%–117%) for ICU admission and 51% (95% CI 30%–78%) for death. Increased risk with the Delta variant was more pronounced at 108% (95% CI 78%–140%) for hospitalization, 235% (95% CI 160%–331%) for ICU admission and 133% (95% CI 54%–231%) for death.Interpretation:The increasing virulence of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs will lead to a considerably larger, and more deadly, pandemic than would have occurred in the absence of the emergence of VOCs.

Novel SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs), including viral lineages carrying the N501Y (Alpha/B.1.1.7) or both the N501Y and E484K mutations (Beta/B.1.351 and Gamma/P.1), were first identified in Ontario, Canada, in December 2020.¹ Although initially uncommon in Ontario, these VOCs outcompeted earlier SARS-CoV-2 lineages and, as of late April 2021, were responsible for almost all new infections in Ontario, with Alpha the most prevalent lineage.¹ In April 2021, the B.1.617.2 variant, now known as Delta under the revised nomenclature from the World Health Organization, emerged in the province, outcompeted earlier VOCs and, by July 2021, represented most infections in the province.^2,3This serial replacement by emerging variants reflects progressively higher effective reproduction numbers that allow novel variants to outcompete previously dominant strains in the face of identical measures to control spread of infection.^4–6 However, VOCs are also concerning because emerging evidence points to increased virulence, with increased risk of hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death, after adjustment for age and other predictive factors among patients with VOC infections.^7–10 Although the increased virulence of strains with the N501Y mutation relative to strains that lack this mutation has been described,^7–9 only limited information is available on the virulence of infection with the Delta variant, relative to earlier N501Y-positive VOCs (i.e., Alpha, Beta and Gamma).^10–12 Our objectives were to evaluate the virulence of N501Y-positive variants relative to earlier SARS-CoV-2 lineages and to evaluate the virulence of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 relative to N501Y-positive VOCs using Ontario’s COVID-19 case data.