The effects of spatial movement and group interactions on disease dynamics of social animals |
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Authors: | I Gudelj K A J White N F Britton |
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Institution: | (1) Biomathematics Unit, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UK;(2) Department of Mathematics, University of Bath, Bath, BA2 7AY, UK |
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Abstract: | The effects of spatial movements of infected and susceptible individuals on disease dynamics is not well understood. Empirical
studies on the spatial spread of disease and behaviour of infected individuals are few and theoretical studies may be useful
to explore different scenarios. Hence due to lack of detail in empirical studies, theoretical models have become necessary
tools in investigating the disease influence in host-pathogen systems.
In this paper we developed and analysed a spatially explicit model of two interacting social groups of animals of the same
species. We investigated how the movement scenarios of susceptible and infected individuals together with the between-group
contact parameter affect the survival rate of susceptible individuals in each group. This work can easily be applied to various
host-pathogen systems.
We define bounds on the number of susceptibles which avoid infection once the disease has died out as a function of the initial
conditions and other model parameters. For example, once disease has passed through the populations, a larger diffusion coefficient
for each group can result in higher population levels when there is no between-group interaction but in lower levels when
there is between-group interaction. Numerical simulations are used to demonstrate these bounds and behaviours and to describe
the different outcomes in ecological terms. |
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Keywords: | |
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