A mathematical model for assessing control strategies against West Nile virus |
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Authors: | C?Bowman Email author" target="_blank">A?B?GumelEmail author P?van den?Driessche J?Wu H?Zhu |
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Institution: | (1) Institute for Biodiagnostics, National Research Council Canada, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3B 1Y6, Canada;(2) Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 5V6, Canada;(3) Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba, 342 Machray Hall, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 2N2, Canada;(4) Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, V8W 3P4, Canada;(5) Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, Canada |
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Abstract: | Since its incursion into North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has spread rapidly across the continent resulting in
numerous human infections and deaths. Owing to the absence of an effective diagnostic test and therapeutic treatment against
WNV, public health officials have focussed on the use of preventive measures in an attempt to halt the spread of WNV in humans.
The aim of this paper is to use mathematical modelling and analysis to assess two main anti-WNV preventive strategies, namely:
mosquito reduction strategies and personal protection. We propose a single-season ordinary differential equation model for
the transmission dynamics of WNV in a mosquito-bird-human community, with birds as reservoir hosts and culicine mosquitoes
as vectors. The model exhibits two equilibria; namely the disease-free equilibrium and a unique endemic equilibrium. Stability
analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if a certain threshold quantity
, which depends solely on parameters associated with the mosquito-bird cycle, is less than unity. The public health implication
of this is that WNV can be eradicated from the mosquito-bird cycle (and, consequently, from the human population) if the adopted
mosquito reduction strategy (or strategies) can make
. On the other hand, it is shown, using a novel and robust technique that is based on the theory of monotone dynamical systems
coupled with a regular perturbation argument and a Liapunov function, that if
, then the unique endemic equilibrium is globally stable for small WNV-induced avian mortality. Thus, in this case, WNV persists
in the mosquito-bird population. |
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