Effects of climate variation on timing of nesting,reproductive success,and offspring sex ratios of red-winged blackbirds |
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Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">Patrick?J?WeatherheadEmail author |
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Institution: | (1) Program in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Illinois, 606 E. Healey Street, Champaign, IL 61820, USA |
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Abstract: | Predicting ecological consequences of climate change will be improved by understanding how species are affected by contemporary
climate variation, particularly if analyses involve more than single ecological variables and focus on large-scale climate
phenomena. I used 18 years of data from red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) studied over a 25-year period in eastern Ontario to explore chronological and climate-related patterns of reproduction.
Although blackbirds started nesting earlier in years with warmer springs, associated with low winter values of the North Atlantic
Oscillation Index (NAOI), there was no advance in laying dates over the study. Nesting ended progressively later and the breeding
season lasted longer over the study, however, associated with higher spring values of NAOI. As the length of the nesting season
increased, offspring sex ratios became more female biased, apparently as a result of females adjusting the sex of the eggs
they laid, rather than from sex-biased nestling mortality. Clutch size did not vary systematically over the study or with
climate. Opposing trends of declining nest success and increasing productivity of successful nests over the study resulted
in no chronological change in productivity per female. Higher productivity of successful nests was associated with higher
winter NAOI values, possibly because synchrony between nesting and food availability was higher in years with high NAOI values.
Other than the association between the start of nesting and spring temperatures, local weather (e.g., temperature, rainfall)
patterns that linked NAOI with reproduction were not identified, suggesting that weather patterns may be complex. Because
climate affected most aspects of red-winged blackbird reproduction examined, focusing on associations between climate and
single variables (e.g., first-egg dates) will have limited value in predicting how future climates will affect populations. |
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Keywords: | Breeding season Clutch size Nest success North Atlantic Oscillation Agelaius phoeniceus |
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