Predicting body temperature and activity of adult <Emphasis Type="Italic">Polyommatus icarus</Emphasis> using neural network models under current and projected climate scenarios |
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Authors: | P D Howe S R Bryant T G Shreeve |
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Institution: | (1) School of Life Sciences, Oxford Brookes University, Headington, Oxford, OX3 0BP, UK;(2) Ecology and Evolution Group, School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK |
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Abstract: | We use field observations in two geographic regions within the British Isles and regression and neural network models to examine
the relationship between microhabitat use, thoracic temperatures and activity in a widespread lycaenid butterfly, Polyommatus icarus. We also make predictions for future activity under climate change scenarios. Individuals from a univoltine northern population
initiated flight with significantly lower thoracic temperatures than individuals from a bivoltine southern population. Activity
is dependent on body temperature and neural network models of body temperature are better at predicting body temperature than
generalized linear models. Neural network models of activity with a sole input of predicted body temperature (using weather
and microclimate variables) are good predictors of observed activity and were better predictors than generalized linear models.
By modelling activity under climate change scenarios for 2080 we predict differences in activity in relation to both regional
differences of climate change and differing body temperature requirements for activity in different populations. Under average
conditions for low-emission scenarios there will be little change in the activity of individuals from central-southern Britain
and a reduction in northwest Scotland from 2003 activity levels. Under high-emission scenarios, flight-dependent activity
in northwest Scotland will increase the greatest, despite smaller predicted increases in temperature and decreases in cloud
cover. We suggest that neural network models are an effective way of predicting future activity in changing climates for microhabitat-specialist
butterflies and that regional differences in the thermoregulatory response of populations will have profound effects on how
they respond to climate change. |
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Keywords: | Climate change Microhabitat Neural networks Polyommatus icarus Thoracic temperature |
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