Disease forecasting model for newly emerging bacterial seed and boll rot of cotton disease and its vector (Dysdercus cingulatus)

Bacterial seed and boll rot disease is a newly emerging threat to the cotton growers. Disease prediction model was devised to predict the disease progression impacted by the vector (Dysdercus cingulatus) and environmental variables (maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) on four varieties to minimise its losses and disease management cost. Impact of a-biotic environmental variables (maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) was assessed on bacterial seed and rot of cotton disease and its vector (D. cingulatus) on FH-941, FH-942, MNH-886 and FH-114 cotton varieties. Maximum red cotton bug population was assessed at 29–31 °C maximum temperature and at 15–17 °C minimum temperature. Disease severity was noticed maximum when maximum and minimum temperature was measured at 28–29 °C and 13–14.5 °C, respectively. Vector population was maximum when relative humidity and rainfall were 63–66% and 1.50–2.5 mm, respectively. Relative humidity at 66–68% and 0.5–1.5 mm rainfall favoured disease development. With increase in number of bugs, increase in disease severity was noted, maximum disease severity 45–48% noticed when 7–8 bugs were recorded. Red cotton bug (Dysdercus cingulatus) population prediction model was devised based on a-biotic factors (maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) on four cotton varieties. Disease forecasting model was developed based on biotic (D. cingulatus) and a-biotic factors. A close resemblance between observed and the predicted red cotton bugs and disease severity was seen.