The prognosis of acute and persistent low-back pain: a meta-analysis

Background:

Although low-back pain is a highly prevalent condition, its clinical course remains uncertain. Our main objective was to systematically review the literature on the clinical course of pain and disability in patients with acute and persistent low-back pain. Our secondary objective was to investigate whether pain and disability have similar courses.

Methods:

We performed a meta-analysis of inception cohort studies. We identified eligible studies by searching MEDLINE, Embase and CINAHL. We included prospective studies that enrolled an episode-inception cohort of patients with acute or persistent low-back pain and that measured pain, disability or recovery. Two independent reviewers extracted data and assessed methodologic quality. We used mixed models to determine pooled estimates of pain and disability over time.

Results:

Data from 33 discrete cohorts (11 166 participants) were included in the review. The variance-weighted mean pain score (out of a maximum score of 100) was 52 (95% CI 48–57) at baseline, 23 (95% CI 21–25) at 6 weeks, 12 (95% CI 9–15) at 26 weeks and 6 (95% CI 3–10) at 52 weeks after the onset of pain for cohorts with acute pain. Among cohorts with persistent pain, the variance-weighted mean pain score (out of 100) was 51 (95% CI 44–59) at baseline, 33 (95% CI 29–38) at 6 weeks, 26 (95% CI 20–33) at 26 weeks and 23 (95% CI 16–30) at 52 weeks after the onset of pain. The course of disability outcomes was similar to the time course of pain outcomes in the acute pain cohorts, but the pain outcomes were slightly worse than disability outcomes in the persistent pain cohorts.

Interpretation:

Patients who presented with acute or persistent low-back pain improved markedly in the first six weeks. After that time improvement slowed. Low to moderate levels of pain and disability were still present at one year, especially in the cohorts with persistent pain.Low-back pain is a highly prevalent condition associated with work absenteeism, disability and large health care costs; however, there is still disagreement about prognosis. For example, the European guidelines for the management of low-back pain states that 90% of patients with acute low-back pain recover in six weeks.¹ In contrast, some well-conducted cohort studies show a less optimistic picture, providing short-term estimates of recovery ranging from 39% to 76%.^2,3 This wide range of estimates of prognosis is likely explained by differences in cohorts and definitions used to define the onset or conclusion of an episode of low-back pain. Because very different definitions of recovery are often used, it is difficult to obtain pooled estimates of recovery rates. Instead, it might be more useful to describe the clinical course of low-back pain in terms of expected changes in pain or disability over time.A recent systematic review⁴ summarized the prognostic factors for persistent disabling low-back pain but did not describe the clinical course. The only meta-analysis to investigate the clinical course of acute low-back pain was published in 2003.⁵ This review concluded that both pain and disability improve rapidly within weeks (mean reduction of 58% of initial scores in the first month) and recurrences are common. A limitation of this review was that, although it retrieved 15 studies, only 5 were cohort studies; the remaining 10 were randomized controlled trials. Randomized trials often have narrow inclusion criteria and low rates of participation, which make them less suitable for inferring prognosis. The best design to describe the prognosis of a condition is a cohort study enrolling a representative sample of incident cases (i.e., by including patients at a similar early point in their condition).^6,7 Such studies are known as inception cohort studies. To the best of our knowledge, no review has yet investigated the clinical course of pain and disability among people with persistent low-back pain (subacute and chronic). Thus, the prognosis for people with persistent low-back pain is still uncertain.The aim of our study was to systematically review the clinical course of pain and disability in patients with acute and persistent low-back pain. We included only inception cohort studies. Our second aim was to investigate whether pain and disability have similar courses.