Blackfly (Diptera: Simuliidae) abundance in a lake outlet: test of a predictive model

A mathematical model based on assumptions of proportionality of filter-feeding insect larvae and their food supply and of the ability of the larvae to substantially reduce the sestonic food supply was developed. The predictions of the model were tested by censusing simuliid blackfly larvae in the outlet stream of a mesotrophic lake. Observed trends in simuliid density agree closely with the predictions. Two seston components (diatoms, detritus) increase downstream contrary to prediction. Potential predators of simuliids were censumed. Isoperla spp. decreased with increasing distance below the lake while the perlid stoneflies Calineuria and Hesperoperla seemed to be excluded from the outfall region.