Simulating temperature-dependent ecological processes at the sub-continental scale: male gypsy moth flight phenology as an example |
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Authors: | J. Régnière Alexei Sharov |
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Affiliation: | (1) Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, PO Box 3800, Sainte-Foy, Quebec, Canada G1V 4C7, CA;(2) Department of Entomology, Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Blacksburg, VA 24060, USA, US |
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Abstract: | We simulated male gypsy moth flight phenology for the location of 1371 weather stations east of 100° W longitude and north of 35° N latitude in North America. The output of these simulations, based on average weather conditions from 1961 to 1990, was submitted to two map-interpolation methods: multiple regression and universal kriging. Multiple regression was found to be as accurate as universal kriging and demands less computing power. A map of the date of peak male gypsy moth flight was generated by universal kriging. This map itself constitutes a useful pest-management planning tool; in addition, the map delineates the potential range of the gypsy moth based on its seasonality at the northern edge of its current distribution in eastern North America. The simulation and map-interpolation methods described in this paper thus constitute an interesting approach to the study and monitoring of the ecological impacts of climate change and shifts in land-use patterns at the sub-continental level. Received: 26 May 1998 / Accepted: 6 July 1998 |
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Keywords: | Landscape ecology Area-wide management Modelling Interpolation Kriging Regression Climate change |
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