Spatial and temporal population change in the Tehran Metropolitan Region and its consequences on urban decline and sprawl |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Geographical Sciences, Faculty of Geography and Urban Planning, Kharazmi University, Human Sciences building, 4th floor, Tehran 14911 – 15719, Iran;2. The Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology (MJIIT), Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Center (DPPC), Malaysia;1. College of Urban Economics and Public Administration, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China;2. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;3. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;4. Center for Urban Future Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;5. School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;6. Key Laboratory of Territorial Spatial Planning and Development-Protection (Ministry of Natural Resources), Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;1. School of Resources and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China;2. Key Laboratory of Monitoring, Evaluation and Early Warning of Territorial Spatial Planning Implementation, Ministry of Natural Resources, Chongqing 401147, China |
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| Abstract: | In the last three decades, Tehran has experienced urban sprawl and decline. The aim of this study is to look into the process of urban sprawl as a spatial and visual manifestation of Tehran's periphery expansion between 1976 and 2016. In relation to population growth and Tehran's urban decline and sprawl, four major urban development stages were investigated: urbanization, counter-urbanization, ex-urbanization, and re-urbanization. As a result, data analysis required the application of the Distributional Model, Moran's Spatial Correlations at both the global and local levels, and G general statistics. The Shannon Entropy and Holdren models are then used to measure the degree of metropolitan region urban sprawl over the course of the study period. Between 1976 and 2016, the population of Tehran city and the Tehran Metropolitan Region (TMR) increased dramatically, with Tehran city continuing to increase from 2.7 to 8.73 million, Tehran periphery cities increasing from, 417,000 to 7.24 million, and the TMR continuing to increase from 3.13 to 15.98 million. These changes would manifest spatially as urban sprawl and decline. The study's findings revealed a link between the TMR's pattern and manner of sprawl development and urban deterioration. As a result, future research on well-adjusted and planned TMR development will be available. |
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