The relationship between abortion rates and economic fluctuations |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Economics and International Business, Sam Houston State University, 1821 Avenue I, SHB 241A, Huntsville, TX 77341, USA;2. College of Public Health, University of South Florida, 13201 Bruce B. Downs Blvd., MDC56, Tampa, FL 33612, USA;1. LEO, University of Tours, France;2. CEPII, France;3. Paris School of Economics and CNRS, 48 Boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, France;4. Paris School of Economics, ENPC-Paris Tech, PUC-Rio, France;1. EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Nanterre, 200 Avenue de la République, 92001 Nanterre Cedex, France;2. Department of Political Sciences, University of Perugia, via Pascoli, 20, Perugia, Italy;3. Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Germany;1. University of Wisconsin – Milwaukee, USA;2. The Lewin Group, USA;3. University of Michigan, USA;1. Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755-3514, United States;2. Adam Smith School of Business, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom;3. NBER, United States;4. UCL Social Research Institute, United Kingdom;5. University College London, 20 Bedford Way, London WC1H 0AL, United Kingdom;1. Fipe- Foundation Institute for Economic Research, Brazil;2. Economics Department, University of São Paulo, Brazil;3. Economics Department, Insper - Institute of Education and Research, Brazil;4. Centre for Health Economics, University of York, UK |
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| Abstract: | We analyze the relationship between abortions and economic fluctuation at the U.S. state level for the 1995–2016 period. We do not find a statistically significant association between the overall abortion rate and the unemployment rate across the full sample period. However, we observe a procyclical association from approximately 2004 to 2010, during which a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a roughly 5% decrease in the abortion rate. This procyclical association is confirmed when we subsample our data to the 2005–2016 period. Our subgroup analysis indicates a procyclical association for the abortion rates for younger women, while we do not observe statistically significant associations when the analysis is stratified by race or ethnicity. The associations we observe for the younger age groups are especially pronounced in states with restrictions on Medicaid funding of abortions. Our analysis suggests that economic conditions may be an important factor in the reproductive choices by women. |
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| Keywords: | Business cycle Abortions |
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