| Institution: | 1. Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C., Evin, Tehran, Iran;2. Department of Environmental Planning and Design, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C., Evin, Tehran, Iran;1. Department of Mathematics, Visva-Bharati Santiniketan 731235, India;2. Agricultural and Ecological Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute 203 B. T. Road, Kolkata 700108, India;1. Institute of Aquatic Ecology, Centre for Ecological Research, Budapest, Hungary;2. Faculty of Information Technology and Bionics, Pázmány Péter Catholic University, Budapest, Hungary;3. Democracy Institute, Central European University, Budapest, Hungary;4. Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Napoli, Italy;1. York University, Department of Biology, 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Canada, M3J1P3;2. The National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, UCSB, Santa Barbara, CA, USA;1. Institute of Mathematics, Statistics and Scientific Computing, UNICAMP, Brazil;2. Department of Entomology and Acaralogy, ESALQ-USP, Brazil;3. School of Mathematics, ITCR, Costa Rica;4. Department of Entomology and Acaralogy, ESALQ-USP, Brazil;5. Methodist University of Piracicaba, Brazil;6. Institute of Mathematics, Statistics and Scientific Computing, UNICAMP, Brazil;7. Institute of Mathematics, Statistics and Scientific Computing, UNICAMP, Brazil;1. Department of Botany, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India;2. Department of Environment Studies, Panjab University, Chandigarh 160 014, India |
| Abstract: | Climate change is a grave danger for humans and a looming threat to Earth's biodiversity in the twenty-first century. Assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change is critical for practical conservation efforts. Due to their limited dispersal ability, amphibians are one of the most vulnerable groups of vertebrates to climate change. Among them, the species that inhabit mountains suffer a tremendous amount of climate change-induced pressures. We, therefore, adopted the Azerbaijan Mountain Newt (Neurergus crocatus), which currently inhabits Northwest Iran, North Iraq, and Southeast Turkey, as a case study for assessing the effects of climate change on the distribution patterns of mountain amphibians. By applying the species distribution models (SDMs) in this study, we tried to hindcast the species distribution area in the past and illustrate the impacts of climate change on its distribution in the present and future (the 2050s and 2070s) climate conditions. Also, the patch metrics have been deployed for identifying habitat fragmentation. Our results indicate a more than 50% rise in the species’ current suitable habitats compared to its glacial refugia. The suitable habitat is expected to gradually decrease in RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Among the three countries in which the species occurs, its distribution overlaps with protected areas only in Iraq. The number of habitat patches will grow and reach approximately 20 to 60 patches by 2070 and the average area of the patches will decrease throughout this time. Aside from the numerous threats that endanger the species, climate change puts the long-term existence of Azerbaijan Newt in jeopardy. The results of this study stress the urgent need for taking extreme measures on the species management and conserving its remnant habitat patches. |
