Mapping the spatial variability of the field distribution of sterile Anastrepha ludens over a release area

The sterile insect technique (SIT) is an environmental-friendly method used against Anastrepha ludens Loew (Diptera: Tephritidae) populations. This study aimed to perform an analysis of the spatial variability of the field distribution of sterile A. ludens using a geostatistical approach along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Field data on captures of sterile A. ludens during a Valencia orange season over a release area were analysed using spherical, exponential and Gaussian variograms. Such variograms were evaluated by criteria such as the mean absolute error, average standard error, root mean square error and the coefficient of determination. Results revealed a spatially structured distribution of sterile A. ludens across the release area. Interpolated models by Ordinary Kriging technique exhibited continuous surfaces evidencing spatial heterogeneity of the distribution of flies. Such a result evidenced that the spatial dynamics of flies significantly varied despite the planned uniform coverage of the release. The GIS led to integrating spatial information of the spatial dynamics through one single model. The release activity should be improved westward of the studied area, as the final model suggested that the ratio sterile: wild is lower than that in the east. This study provides insights into the spatial analysis of the distribution of sterile flies further than one single geographical point. Moreover, it highlights geostatistical techniques and GIS as useful tools for the assessment of the impact and quality of the release activity over fruit-growing areas subjected to an area-wide integrated pest management approach.