Annual climate in Mexican Spotted Owl habitat in the Sacramento Mountains,New Mexico: implications for responding to climate change

Global climate change presents a growing conservation threat, but our understanding of the effects of climate change remains limited for most species. We evaluated the annual climate cycle for threatened Mexican Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis lucida) in high-elevation mixed-conifer forests in the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico from 2005 to 2010. We used data from a network of weather stations in Mexican Spotted Owl habitat to describe annual temperature cycles, and precipitation data from a National Weather Service weather station to describe the annual precipitation cycle. We coupled these data with equations from the literature to estimate annual cycles in resting metabolic rate and evaporative water loss, and evaluated the potential effects of a warming climate on these parameters. Annual weather was characterized by cold, dry winters, warmer and dry springs, warm and wet summers, and cool and relatively wet falls. Ambient temperature never exceeded the upper critical temperature for Mexican Spotted Owls (35.2°C), but > 90% of 663,422 hourly temperature observations were below the lower critical temperature (18.2°C). Thus, heat stress was not predicted to occur, but owls likely expended energy on thermoregulation at low temperatures. Resting energy use peaked during winter (December–February) and was lowest when owls would be feeding young (May–August). In contrast, evaporative water loss peaked from June to August, when precipitation also peaked. Mexican Spotted Owls generally appeared well-adapted to the current climate cycle in our montane study area, but late winter (February–March) may be a critical period in terms of energy requirements, and late spring (April–May) may be critical in terms of water relationships. Predicted changes in temperature through 2099 would result in reductions in predicted energy use by Mexican Spotted Owls, but increases in predicted water use. Water relationships may become increasingly important for Mexican Spotted Owls in the face of climate change, especially in warmer and drier areas. In forested areas, retaining patches of older forest with high canopy cover in cool, mesic sites may provide continued benefits to Mexican Spotted Owls under climate change.