Yearly variation in factors associated with local recruitment of Tree Swallows

Identifying factors that influence the chances of fledglings becoming local recruits can inform us about the ecology of population dynamics and factors influencing parental fitness. We studied Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) nesting in boxes in western Michigan from 1994 to 2005 and found that 145 of 2405 (6.0%) nestlings that fledged from 840 nests became local recruits. Most local recruits returned to breed at the study site the year after they fledged. The sex ratio of local recruits (76 males and 69 females) did not differ from 1:1. Analysis of data from all years combined revealed that the likelihood of fledglings becoming local recruits was not significantly influenced by the year they fledged, clutch initiation date, clutch size, brood size, age class and physical characteristics of female parents, or the physical characteristics of putative male parents. However, analysis of data from each year revealed that some variables had a significant effect on the likelihood of fledglings becoming local recruits in some years, including female age class in two years, female parent right tail fork length in one year, female parent right wing length in one year, clutch initiation date in two years, clutch size in two years, and brood size in one year. The proportion of fledglings produced each year that became local recruits was not correlated with either mean air temperature or total rainfall during June and July, the immediate post-fledgling period. Taken together, these analyses suggest that chance or yearly variation in some other factor(s) with the potential to affect post-fledging survival that we did not measure (e.g., predation post-fledging or climatic conditions during migration or in migratory stopover sites and wintering areas) had an important effect on local recruitment of fledgling Tree Swallows in our study. We did find that local recruits were more likely to be from nests where egg-laying began earlier rather than later in the season, with 137 of 145 (94%) of local recruits coming from clutches initiated between 5 and 30 May. Because swallows that fledged earlier in the season had more time to prepare for migration than those that fledged later, we hypothesize that the “relative age effect” had an important effect on local recruitment of Tree Swallows at our study site.