Simulation of bracken cover in forested areas in Victoria in response to season,overstorey and fire conditions

Abstract A computer-based model is presented that brings together the existing knowledge about the dynamics of bracken in eucalypt forests in south-eastern Australia. The average length of the growing season, the timing and extent of logging, and the timing and severity of fire are major inputs to the model. The model is predominantly deterministic, but has a stochastic environmental component. The model is validated with four independent sets of data. The model successfully predicts the trends in the data. The interactions between bracken, other understorey species and eucalypt regeneration are explored with the model. The likely effect of different silvicultural and fire management practices on the cover of bracken are investigated using the model. Year to year variation can mask the effects of disturbance if bracken cover is viewed in any one year in isolation. Bracken cover trends can only be seen over a period of 10 years or more. The model reinforces the importance of site productivity as measured by length of growing season and the degree of tree removal on bracken cover.