Climate change and its impacts on Vietnam agriculture: A macroeconomic perspective |
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| Affiliation: | 1. The Business School, RMIT University, Viet Nam;2. BIDV Training and Research Institute, Hanoi, Viet Nam;3. Collage of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, China;1. Department of Geography, University of Florida, Turlington Hall, 3141, 330 Newell Dr, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States of America;2. Harvard Forest, Harvard University, 324 North Main Street, Petersham, MA 01366-9504, United States of America;1. Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology, Agency of Daugavpils University, 4 Voleru st., Riga LV-1007, Latvia;2. Department of Environmental Science, Stockholm University, SE-10691, Stockholm, Sweden;1. Division of Agricultural Physics, ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi 110012, India;2. ICAR-Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute, New Delhi 110012, India;3. ICAR-Central Coastal Agricultural Research Institute, Goa 403 402, India;4. Division of Environment Science, ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi 110012, India |
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| Abstract: | Vietnam is an important contributor to the world's food industry as a major exporter of rice, seafood, and coffee. Climate change poses a serious threat to Vietnam's agricultural sector since it adversely affects food security in Vietnam and globally. This study investigates the short- and long-term effects of climate change on Vietnam's agriculture, both in terms of production and values at the macro level. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) Granger causality test with annual data from 1990 to 2019, we confirm the detrimental impacts of global warming on Vietnam's agricultural performance in both the short and long term. We also reveal the favorable effects of CO2 emissions, land, and fertilizer on Vietnam's agricultural production and economics. Other factors, including rainfall and labor, however, adversely affect Vietnam's agricultural output and economic performance. Based on the study's results, we provide policy recommendations to assist the government limit the negative effects of climate change on the national economy, thereby promoting poverty alleviation and sustainable development in Vietnam. |
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