Long-term ecological vulnerability assessment of Indian Sundarban region under present and future climatic conditions under CMIP6 model |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Environmental Science & Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (Indian School of Mines), Dhanbad 826004, India;2. Department of Environmental Science & Engineering, Head of Centre (HoC), Centre for Water Resource Management (CWRM), Indian Institute of Technology (Indian School of Mines), Dhanbad 826004, India;1. College of Electronic Information Engineering, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot 010021, China;2. Collaborative Innovation Center for Grassland Ecological Security, Ministry of Education of China, Hohhot 010021, China;3. School of Ecology and Environment, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot 010021, China;1. Ecology and Future Research Institute, Busan 46228, Republic of Korea;3. Bureau of Conservation and Assessment Research, National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon 33657, Republic of Korea;4. Environment Team, Samsung Electronics, Hwaseong 18448, Republic of Korea;5. Duru Institute of Environmental Ecology, Daegu 41069, Republic of Korea;6. Department of Biological Sciences, Andong National University, Andong 36729, Republic of Korea;7. Environmental Research Center, Andong National University, Andong 36729, Republic of Korea;8. Watershed and Total Load Management Research Division, National Institute of Environmental Research, Incheon 22689, Republic of Korea;9. Department of Biology, Kyung Hee University, Seoul 02447, Republic of Korea;1. PhD Student, Department of Natural Resources, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan 84156-83111, Iran;2. Department of Natural Resources, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan 84156-83111, Iran;3. Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan 84156-83111, Iran;4. Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg,Tennenbacherstr. 4, 79106 Freiburg, Germany;1. Department of Geography, Faculty of Economics, Management and Social Sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran;2. Department of Soil Science, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran;3. Research group on "Fuzzy Set Theory and Optimal Decision-making Model in Economics and Management", Vietnam National University, Hanoi, 144 Xuan Thuy str., Hanoi 100000, Viet Nam;1. CICGE - Centro de Investigação em Ciências Geo-Espaciais, Faculty of Sciences, University of Porto, Alameda do Monte da Virgem, 4430-146 Vila Nova de Gaia, Portugal;2. Department of Geosciences, Environment and Land Planning, Faculty of Sciences, University of Porto, 4169-007 Porto, Portugal;3. Earth Sciences Institute (ICT), Pole of the FCUP, University of Porto, 4169-007 Porto, Portugal;4. Area of Ecology – Department of Botany, Ecology and Plant Physiology, Faculty of Sciences (University of Cordoba), Campus de Rabanales, 14014 Córdoba, Spain |
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| Abstract: | Vulnerability assessment of ecosystem bestows an idea about the ecosystem health and its ability to resist environmental stress. Indian Sundarban region situated at the southwest part of Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta has been under constant threat of frequent climate hazards and long-term climate change. Various attempts have been made for vulnerability assessment of this mangrove ecosystem focusing only on static non-temporal variables. The present work hypothesises that mangrove ecosystems are highly adaptive and respond to the changing environment by various natural resilience strategies at the ecosystem level. So, a better understanding of the dynamics of mangrove ecosystem will provide an idea about the state of vulnerability for this ecosystem. The present study uses 16 parameters to create exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity risk indices and constructs the vulnerability status for the Indian Sundarban. The results showed that the sea-level rise will happen between 0.7 m to 0.9 m under baseline climate conditions. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble showed that the future minimum temperature for the region will go up to 29.48 °C, thereby reducing the max and min temperature difference for the region. The fuzzy AHP-based vulnerability assessment revealed that the western Sundarban is more prone to climate vulnerability. The island-like Surendranagar, Lothian, and West-Ajmalmari are extremely vulnerable. The proximity to human habitat will play an important role in climate change sensitivity to the Sundarban region. The time series analysis of mangrove forests showed the Mann-Kendall ‘τ’ value varies between 0.82 to −0.83. The central Sundarban forests area shows a varying degree of forest health deterioration. The assessments from the present study and the maps will help the environmental and risk-managers to identify the regions needing more climate change adaptation strategy. |
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