Invaders at the doorstep: Using species distribution modeling to enhance invasive plant watch lists |
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| Affiliation: | 1. U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center, 2150 Centre Ave Bldg C, Fort Collins, CO 80526, United States of America;2. Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, United States of America;3. Student Contractor to the U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center, 2150 Centre Ave Bldg C, Fort Collins, CO 80526, United States of America;4. Natural Resources Stewardship and Science Biological Resource Division, National Park Service, 1201 Oakridge Drive, Suite 200, Fort Collins, CO 80525, United States of America;5. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Bear Lake National Wildlife Refuge, P.O. Box 9, Montpelier, ID 83254, United States of America;6. U.S. Geological Survey, Science Analytics and Synthesis Program, 1200 Sunrise Valley Dr, Rm. 2A322, Reston, VA 20192, United States of America;7. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Ridgefield National Wildlife Refuge, 28908 NW Main Avenue, Ridgefield, WA 98642, United States of America;8. U.S. Geological Survey Pacific Island Ecosystem Research Center, Kilauea Field Station, PIERC Office Bldg 344, Hawaii National Park, HI 96718, United States of America;1. Laboratório de Parasitologia Médica e Biologia de Vetores, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Brasília, Brasília, DF, Brazil;2. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Zoologia, Departamento de Zoologia, Universidade de Brasília, Brasília, DF, Brazil;3. Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA;4. Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, USA;1. Ecology and Environmental Modelling Laboratory, Department of Environmental Science, The University of Burdwan, Purba Bardhaman, 713104, India;2. Department of Geography, The University of Burdwan, Purba Bardhaman, 713104, West Bengal, India;3. Department of Basic Sciences and Humanities, Institute of Engineering & Management, Sector -V, Salt Lake City, Kolkata 700091, West Bengal, India;1. Department of Zoology, Entomology & Fisheries Sciences, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda;2. Department of Biology, Coe College, 1220 1st Avenue NE, Cedar Rapids, IA 52402, USA |
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| Abstract: | Watch lists of invasive species that threaten a particular land management unit are useful tools because they can draw attention to invasive species at the very early stages of invasion when early detection and rapid response efforts are often most successful. However, watch lists typically rely on the subjective selection of invasive species by experts or on the use of spotty occurrence records. Further, incomplete records of invasive plant occurrences bias these watch lists towards the inclusion of invasive plant species that may already be present in a land management unit, because the occurrences have not been formally integrated into publicly accessible biodiversity databases. However, these problems may be overcome by an iterative approach that guides more complete detection and compilation of invasive plant species records within land management units. To address issues from unobserved or unrecorded occurrences, we combined predicted suitable habitat from species distribution models and aggregated invasive plant occurrence records to develop ranked watch lists of 146 priority invasive plant species on >4000 land management units from five different administrative types within the United States. Based on this analysis, we determined that on average 84% of priority invasive plants with suitable habitat within a given land management unit were as yet unobserved, and that 41% of those were ‘doorstep species’ – found within 50 miles of the unit boundary yet not detected within the unit. Two case studies, developed in collaboration with staff at U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Refuges, showed that by combining both habitat suitability models and invasive plant occurrence records, we could identify additional problematic invasive plants that had been previously overlooked. Model-based watch lists of ‘doorstep species’ are useful tools because they can objectively alert land managers to threats from invasive plants with high likelihood of establishment. |
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