Rhinoceros accounting in Kruger National Park,South Africa

Trends in rhinoceroses (rhinos) in Kruger National Park (Kruger) is of key concern. Poaching drives trends in the Park. Reconciling annual population estimates with yearly reports of poached carcasses fuels public critique. We account for trends in rhinos by extracting time series of estimates. Progressively modelling influences of management introductions and removals, effects of environmental variation and rhino density, direct impacts of poaching, consequences of imperfect carcass detection, and indirect impacts of deaths of dependent calves form the basis of accounting for rhinos. Models that considered all these influences explained 93% of white and 83% of black rhino population trends. In addition, the models predicted 2,515 white and 225 black rhinos, similar to estimates of 2,607 (95% CI: 2,475–2,752) and 202 (95% CI: 172–237) during 2020 respectively. The best model, however, predicts slow recovery with a white rhino population equivalent to pre-poaching achieved between 2030 and 2040. For black rhinos, recovery to pre-poaching population size would be between 2040 and 2050. The poaching onslaught in Kruger disrupted eruptive white rhino dynamics and prevented black rhinos from transitioning into eruptive dynamics. Authorities require innovative approaches within and beyond Kruger to help re-ignite rhino conservation.