Estimating population dynamics trajectories of raptors from a multi-species hierarchical distance sampling model |
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| Institution: | 1. Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, 180 E. Green Street, Athens, GA 30602, USA;2. Tall Timbers, 13093 Henry Beadel Drive, Tallahassee, FL 32312, USA;1. Environmental Systems Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2, Canada;2. Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2, Canada;1. Achutha Menon Centre for Health Science Studies, Sree Chitra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and Technology, Trivandrum, Kerala, India;2. Department of Health and Family Welfare, Government of Punjab, India;1. Ecology and Environmental Modelling Laboratory, Department of Environmental Science, The University of Burdwan, Purba Bardhaman, 713104, India;2. Department of Geography, The University of Burdwan, Purba Bardhaman, 713104, West Bengal, India;3. Department of Basic Sciences and Humanities, Institute of Engineering & Management, Sector -V, Salt Lake City, Kolkata 700091, West Bengal, India;1. Shijiazhuang Institute of Railway Technology, Shijiazhuang 050018, China;2. School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia;3. College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China;4. Pingwu Panda Valley Family Farm, Pingwu 622550, China;5. The Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China;6. UQ Spatial Epidemiology Laboratory, School of Veterinary Science, University of Queensland, Gatton 4343, Australia |
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| Abstract: | Community dynamics are essential for ecosystems as they support the functioning of food webs and maintain biodiversity. However, the fluctuations of species abundances are rarely analyzed simultaneously despite their interconnectedness across space and time. We developed a Bayesian multi-species model that estimates community- and taxon-level parameters related to dynamics, abundance, detection probability, and environmental stochasticity. From this model, we analyze the variability of populations of a community of raptors composed of accipiters (sharp-shinned hawk Accipiter striatus], and Cooper's hawk A. cooperii]), buteos (red-tailed hawk Buteo jamaicensis], and red-shouldered hawk B. lineatus]) and owls (great horned owl Bubo virginianus], and barred owl Strix varia]). We show that migration pulses of accipiters, buteos, and dispersal of fledging owls drive variation in raptor abundances, indicating a defined production and dispersal period. Also, large-scale climatic processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influenced the variation in abundances of raptors. When the NAO was in a positive phase, the abundance of raptors decreased, and inversely. Local weather did not affect raptor population abundances. Our approach facilitated the modelling of species-specific effects of environmental variation and guild-level dynamics that could be used for ecosystem-based conservation measures. |
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