稻纵卷叶螟种群系统动态模拟

本文组建了稻纵卷叶螟种群系统模似模型,它由系统亚模型和总模型二个部分组成.系统亚模型包括发育、死亡和繁殖三个子模块.系统总模型是作者提出的新模型,它综合了前人所提出的种群模型的优点,以差分方程形式给出,以生理时间为单位,考虑了种群内个体间发育速率的差异,不仅能模拟种群数量动态,而且能模拟种群年龄结构,同时能预测发生期.模型有效性检验表明,模拟结果基本上能吻合实测结果.文中还对5个影响因子进行了灵敏性分析.

SIMULATION OF THE DYNAMICS OF POPULATION SYSTEM OF THE RICE LEAF ROLLER, CNAPHALOCROCIS MEDINALIS GUENEE

The general model and its submodels of population system of the rice leaf roller Cnapha-locrocis medinalis are developed according to the principle of decomposition and synthesis of huge system.The system submodels consist of three parts:developmental submodel,mortality submodel and reproduction submodel.The general model of population system is a new kind of difference equation model which is suggested first in this paper.Our new model synthesizes the advantages of population simulation models which have been suggested ever before.It uses physiological time as the unit of time to simulate the developmental process.The var-iance of developmental rate among individuals has been considered the modelIt can be used to simulate not only experimental population,but also natural population.It can simulate the dynamics of population density,age structure and developmental stage day by day at the same time.The simulation results can approach the observed results satisfactorily.The sensitivity ahalysis on five factors is conducted in the paper.