厦门市海岸带水污染负荷估算及预测

综合采用灰色模型、曲线回归等预测方法,建立了基于厦门市海岸带特征的主要污染源水污染负荷估算及预测模型,并采用厦门市历年统计数据对模型加以验证.对厦门市近岸海域近10年的废水和主要污染物质排放量估算的结果表明:万元产值工业废水排放量呈逐年下降的趋势,而各污染物的排放总量却逐年缓慢增长;在点源污水排放总量预测中,约76%的氮、磷来自于生活污水;在非点源污染负荷中,农业非点源中的氮、磷负荷占较大比例,城市非点源污染负荷比例最小.2005年厦门海岸带各污染源产生的氮污染负荷大小比较结果为:生活污染源>农业非点源>工业污染源>旅游业污染源>城市非点源,磷污染负荷则为:农业非点源>生活污染源>工业污染源>旅游业污染源>城市非点源.

Water pollution load in coastal zone of Xiamen: Estimation and forecast

By the methods of grey prediction and curve regression,the estimation and forecast models of water pollution load in coastal zone of Xiamen City,Southeast China were established,and validated with the statistic data of the pollution load in past decade.The estimation revealed that the industrial wastewater discharge per ten thousand RMB production value decreased yearly,while the total discharge of main pollutants increased gradually.In the total discharge of point source wastewater,about 76% of nitrogen and phosphorus came from domestic wastewater.In non-point source pollution loads,nitrogen and phosphorus of agricultural source occupied a larger proportion,while those of urban source were the least.In 2005,the nitrogen pollution load from different sources was in the order of domestic wastewater(DW)>agricultural non-point source(ANPS)>industrial wastewater(IW)>tourism wastewater(TW)>urban non-point source(UNPS),while phosphorus pollution load was ANPS>DW>IW>TW>UNPS.