Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease |
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Authors: | Zhang Ping Atkinson Peter M |
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Institution: | Northeast Geography & Agriculture Ecology Institute, CAS, China. gracezp2004@yahoo.com.cn |
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Abstract: | This paper models the impact of urbanization on infectious disease transmission by integrating a CA land use development model, population projection matrix model and CA epidemic model in S-Plus. The innovative feature of this model lies in both its explicit treatment of spatial land use development, demographic changes, infectious disease transmission and their combination in a dynamic, stochastic model. Heuristically-defined transition rules in cellular automata (CA) were used to capture the processes of both land use development with urban sprawl and infectious disease transmission. A population surface model and dwelling distribution surface were used to bridge the gap between urbanization and infectious disease transmission. A case study is presented involving modelling influenza transmission in Southampton, a dynamically evolving city in the UK. The simulation results for Southampton over a 30-year period show that the pattern of the average number of infection cases per day can depend on land use and demographic changes. The modelling framework presents a useful tool that may be of use in planning applications. |
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Keywords: | CA land use development model Population projection matrix model CA epidemic model Urbanization Infectious disease transmission |
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