On the causal relationship between participation in national commemorations and feelings of national belonging

It is often theoretically argued that participation in national commemorations increases feelings of national belonging. Previous studies have also empirically demonstrated that participation in national commemorations and feelings of national belonging are positively related. We are uncertain, however, about the direction of this relationship. Does participating in national commemorations increase feelings of national belonging (increase hypothesis) or do people who attend such ceremonies feel a greater sense of national belonging compared to people who not attend (selection hypothesis)? Using an innovative research design, this study sheds more light on the direction of the relationship between participation in national commemorations and feelings of national belonging. We collected data from respondents before (n?=?469), during (n?=?50) and after (n?=?226) the national ceremony on Remembrance Day in 2015 in the Netherlands. In this study, we found support for the selection hypothesis, but not for the increase hypothesis.